Go Ottawa!
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2 team, 7pt teaser for me. Ottawa and under.Comment -
I took them -8.0.
Looks like the real Montreal team is back.Comment -
Checking in, I'll be gone tomorrow during the games, in the Sequoia National Forest, so probably not watching much...lol.
We saw an upset win and a favorite cover, both games were Unders. The bounce was there and perhaps this week we see Total money on its way to being stacked, in a sense it has been for a couple of weeks.
One other thing to note...
I know I’ve downplayed the importance and value of these forecasts for the early season, but after last week, you can see the market is considering the players already.
The early season sharp forecast, which is also known to do well though I haven’t profited much from it, has been correct on the spreads and Totals of the first two games this week, and only failed with one moneyline.
Just something to note as tomorrow’s two game set progresses. The forecasts seem to agree with Edmonton in the first game, but it took a line movement away from the forecasts to make the stacking forecast more convincing.
Toronto, last year’s Champ, is under some pressure to get a win this season, even if it is only the third game and second at home. Last week was ugly and Toronto may just put these forecasts in there early season place with a home win over Edmonton.
When it comes to how things are brought, it is my belief that the first game will be misleading, with the team taking the early lead to be on the losing end of at least the spread.
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High total, but taking over 56.0 in Edmonton/TorontoComment -
I was out golfing today and missed getting action on the EDM game. Going with BC +7 in the late game.Comment -
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This marks two weeks in a row that an anticipated upset was offset with give and take from the forecasts. The forecasts win, then fail at key market moments.
Toronto's first win wasn't as key as any Montreal success, but it was something to note beforehand.
Overt the next few weeks we could see these situations set up and fail. The good news is that it could result in excellent forecast results against the spread and moneyline.
As far as Totals, we could still be seeing evidence, like last year, that Totals may struggle with forecasts.
There still isn't much football played yet this season, even though we are in week 5.Comment -
This week there are only 3 games.
In the past few years, there have always been 4 games with a 5 game week around a holiday (Labour Day I think).
This year there will be 3 games in weeks 5, 9, and 14. There will be no 5 game week but we will see a Monday game on September 3rd.
To make up for it, there will be 21 weeks this regular season.
This week, there is little word about the BC quarterback situation and no line.
In speculation, BC could be in serious trouble here as the give and take markets set them up for failure. After a confirming Toronto bounce back, look for the market to exploit the angle of rematches this week, possibly with a bounce in ATS results the first two games, then BC becomes this year's Montreal, at least this week.
As we see the forecasts line up, we can possibly see what we are in for this week. One problem, there are only three games and only Winnipeg and Edmonton have played 4 games so far this season.
I'll get the first sets of numbers posted shortly.
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Week 5 Early Season Stacking Forecast
Because of the schedule, there’ a bit of a blur on just when we get out of the early season and enter the era of the forecasts. We are in week 5, there are only 3 games this week, and only two teams have played 4 games and they don’t play each other. We are still in the early season but this is our first week of all rematches. Interestingly, the 3 teams not playing this week have all played 4 games. Next week will start the official forecast season.
For a quick recap, the early season stacking forecast for weeks 3 and 4 is 4-3 ATS, 5-3 against the moneyline (I will worry about moneyline profit starting next week but know that it predicted favorites to cover all 8 games) and 3-5 against opening and 4-4 against closing totals.
Notice how those numbers carry less meaning when summed up than the experience of walking through the games and the market’s situation, like week 3. There was a story that’s just plain not told there.
Anyway, the early season stacking forecast has Calgary winning with 30 or 31 points to Ottawa’s 20 or 22 points. The line has pulled off the 3 towards the forecast and the Total opened just above it at 54.5 and has nudged to 55 and back in some places.
That same forecast has Edmonton winning with 28 or 30 points to Toronto’s 24 points. The line opened higher at -7.5 and we’ve seen it move away from the forecast to 9 or 9.5. The Total prediction of 52 or 54 points is in line with the market open of 54 and the tick down to 53.5.
I don’t have a stacking forecast for the third game.
These are the numbers, it predicts Calgary and Under and it predicts Toronto ATS. I want to put the early season sharp forecast out there before any real game discussion as they seem to be relevant to the opening spreads.Comment -
Week 5 Early Season Sharp Forecast
The very early season sharp forecast was 2-2 against the spread and 3-1 against the Totals last week. It was 1-3 against the moneyline.
This tells us little but I warn that, until further notice, the sharp forecast (beginning next week) may not perform as well as we want to make a profit when blindly betting with a .5 point discrepancy or more against TOTALS; against the spread it is still a money maker as far as I can tell.
That sharp forecasting method has Calgary winning with 20 points to Ottawa’s 16 or 17 points. This is right at the spread, including movement, and calls for an Under.
That method also has Edmonton winning with 27 or 28 points to Toronto’s 19 or 20 points. Again, this is right at the spread, including the movement and also calls for an Under.
For the third game the early season sharp forecast has Winnipeg winning with 40 or more points to BC’s 20 or 22 points. The raw score here is closer to 70 points. The sharp forecasting method can be used here and Winnipeg has played 4 games, but we should remember from past years that major injuries can affect the forecast results…it is dynamic but doesn’t make an adjustment. In the end, from a market perspective, it often doesn’t matter who plays the game; just that it gets played, but know that situations like this are not ideal for betting, especially in the CFL. I’m glad it’s still early season.
So the first two games are right at the spread, including movement. It’s easy to say the market has “caught up” to the forecast, but in fact this isn’t the competing forecast; that comes next week.
But the books know the methodology and know how to bait bettors. From the early season sharp forecast perspective, look for there to be opposite results ATS and against the Totals. One game will have a favorite, one will have a dog, one an Under and one an Over.
Right or wrong, we’ll come back to this thinking. If the thinking fails, we could be looking at another swing game set up, but that’s too easy. The betting has this as a two game week right now, and that’s how it should be treated until it isn’t.Comment -
Guys, a quick question: Does anyone know of a way to watch the games without using a pay service? ESPN throws us a bone in the States with one game on ESPN2 every week or so. Last year you could watch all the other games on ESPN3. But this season they've started "ESPN+" which is a pay service. With the CFL trying to grow the sport in the States, especially during the early summer months, you'd think they could find a way to provide coverage without paying extra to see the games. Any info? ThanksComment -
Art I only know of some sites that have all those crazy pop ups and once you get through it all you can see almost any sport. There are virus risks but I've never had a real problem.
I call it up on the old computer just in case. I'll PM the address if you are willing to try, but you have to close ads and close pop ups to get to the game.
Let me know.
ESPN+ is terrible, pisses me off to a certain extent...lol.Comment -
These are very similar, and only different by a fraction of raw score points, to the forecasts generated when these teams played each other last. That result was successful with the favorite Calgary and the Under and we saw the upset Toronto with an Under.
This have high probability of a different result both ATS and against the Total than the first games. On the field it’s often seen as adjustments that the coaches make.
Back to the sharp forecast…
As a two game week, there are all types of give and take situations here; some from week to week, and some within the two days themselves. Even the line movements show similar situations, with ATS ticks upward in line with the sharp forecast and basically no Total movement (so no real movement at all for either game when you consider the forecast).
One point here is that there’s all kinds of give and take to be had or not here, but the money has to begin to flow first.
I have underdog and upset metrics that show pressure on Ottawa that is likely keeping that line from hitting 4 or higher, keeping it within the stacking forecast, and keeping public money on the steamrolling Calgary who has covered as a favorite 3 times in a row. The fact that Ottawa is at home is read into that line as well, but pressure has been created nonetheless.
Now remember, while Calgary has covered 3 straight they ended last year on a terrible note. They failed to cover the spread in 5 games (losing 2 as a favorite) leading up to the Grey Cup, where they were upset.
In a continuous market it could be a little give and take from last season and as more players, including streak riders seeing the Calgary machine roll, enter the market, it could get tougher for Calgary in the short term. We see continuous give and take markets all the time, like when the Super Bowl winner fails to cover the first games they play the next season.
When looking for adjustments, bettors also look for Ottawa to adjust here. There is a revenge mentality and it starts in the first game this week.
There are reasons to pick up Ottawa here and they begin to steer money one direction, a sort of contrarian direction to be honest, including the upset metrics I mentioned first.
This money either wins, or it fails. The point is that there is a starting direction of flow, even before the games begin and with sharp forecast methodology sidelined or forced to gamble by the in line market during this last week before it really competes, it implies this market money will pay.
Like a lamb led to slaughter, I’m going with that money and picking up one of the last early season market reads in taking Ottawa RedBlacks +3.5 (-108) and +150 over Calgary Stampeders.
I could wait, and see where the money falls, but sometimes the early bird gets the worm, especially when he goes against the public.
The first game this week will be a battle and likely a tough issue to settle. If not, Calgary puts the contrarians in their place with a stomping; something they tend to do. Bo Levi Mitchell has a great record coming off of a bye week and if my choice fails I think both Ottawa and Calgary will provide opportunity for betting profit in the next 4 weeks.
Fading the upset metric is not a winning proposition, but when you can identify other money headed that way, it could become the time to fade. Once we see some money intentionally sidelined, the probability sways back to the upset metric, and that’s where my bet stands with 3.5 and +150 giving us the chance.
Good Luck.
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It looks like the market is starting to show some of that underdog pressure as the line comes back to -3. I was hoping they wouldn't blink here, but that initial move to -3.5 clearly made it easier to put money on Ottawa.Comment -
I’m on Ottawa +3.5 too. But Calgary off a bye is scary.Comment -
I don't know guys, I have to roll with Calgary -2.5 here and the ML. Beautiful warm night here in Ottawa. Hoping for lots of points.Comment -
Calgary is 16-0 in their last 16 off a bye.Comment -
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Really tempted for second half under if Mitchell is out.
report is he is doubtful to return.Comment -
Sorry Ottawa backers, they just aren't that good this year and Calgary IS the team to beat!Comment -
Looking at the under 54.5 in tonight's game. Thoughts?Last edited by Coolcanuck79; 07-13-18, 07:09 PM.Comment -
I’m on Toronto +9.5.
Not sure how I feel about the total. Last week Edmonton moved the ball at ease, just didn’t score.Comment -
Calgary living up to early season reputation that they have, as many have mentioned, there will likely be give and take.
Once these forecasts are rolling, I may warn against their success but likely may not be countering them with plays in bold. As you can see over the last two years, we have the two extremes with Montreal and Calgary, with plenty of give and take being played with the other teams.
I think I've given the Tiger Woods and team streaking lecture many times by now.
While the first two games did give us the ATS bounce of one favorite and one underdog, the favorites both won and both games remained Under. Further, the Calgary covering with an Under and Toronto Covering with an Under were the same results as the first times these teams played with the exception of an upset with Toronto in the first game against Edmonton but no upset in the second.
The market has tightened and those who were seeking give and take and winning with Montreal and Toronto over the last two weeks experienced that tightening after their recent wins.
This is a three game betting week, and it is now obvious.
The market has exploited the angle of rematches, and you can see one population, those looking for the same results between weeks and games, a far fewer crowd than the story of adjustments attracts, has done well.
But everyone else, anyone looking for a different result, dog, favorite, or Over, failed to get it. It started with game one, where Calgary covered as a favorite in an Under for the 4th consecutive time and teased an Edmonton loss later but in the end both games had repeat spread results with the repeat teams and the Totals being the same as well.
Once again, the CFL is stacking money and this time there is far less give and plenty of take. More importantly, you can see the multiple reasons why contrarian “bounce” money was drawn in on the first game this week, enough to move the line slightly against the public or keep it split, and it failed. This is the story of the state of the markets this week.
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I think the CFL has revealed quite a few cards this early season, and it's not unusual. The same things really do happen every year and it is my position that there will be quite the cat and mouse game over the next few weeks, as we approach the season midpoint.
Probably best to stick to the forecasts in earnest over that time as metrics ramp up to advantageous points, if they get there.
Reminds me of this post...
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The early season stacking forecast is has been right on both moneylines (2-0), both spreads (2-0), and was 1-0 or 2-0 against the Totals. The second game predicted 52 or 54 points, the line was 54, and the game finished Under. Take what you will from that but I will likely consider it a no prediction for that game.
Of the 6 possible bets, I’m saying the early season stacking forecast went 5-0, with no prediction in the Total of one game.
I always grade the toughest and never give the forecasts the benefit of the doubt. We are already operating with .5 point discrepancy against the market.
This week, against openers, the sharp forecast is 2-0 against moneylines and 2-0 against the Totals. There were no spread predictions for the first two games this week against the open. The forecast had Edmonton winning by 7, 8 or 9 points and a Toronto bet was triggered with the closer of +9.5.
That bet also won making the sharp forecast 4-0 against openers and 5-0 against closers of the possible 6 bets in those two games.
Again, there is less meaning in these results when you don’t have the market background, or the betting story that has been involved.
The early season stacking forecast has Winnipeg winning with 33 or 34 points to British Columbia’s 13 or 14 points.
The line opened with Winnipeg -4 and has ticked upward to -4.5, towards both forecasts. The Total is between the high sharp forecast and the lower stacking forecast but has ticked toward the stacking forecast from 54 to 55.
This Total is the only outright disagreement between the forecasts this week so one of them will lose. Will be interesting and readers will take note, when we see a push against the opener or closer here. CLF Totals basically don’t middle, so going outside the spread with an Under 55.5 and an Over 53.5 would not be bad propositions here and well worth the risk.
Just a few more facts to complete the picture and bring us back to the angle of revenge. Winnipeg beat BC as a -6.5 Favorite in an Over 56.5. Both lines are slightly lower in the face of the adjustment or revenge angle and BC is facing some obvious pressure here and shows in that lower spread following the blowout.
Lulay is coming back for BC, adding a monkey wrench to the story and creating an opening for BC to handle the business.
I reposted the speculation on BC being in trouble from before games began. Games have not gone with the give and take as expected so does that mean BC is out of trouble?
BC could still be in trouble. Set ups come in many forms and I think, after absorbing these posts about the market and reading from the past, we can all see that BC (and Lulay) is under serous pressure here and that money is stacked. It becomes apparent that leaving a third line hanging this week could result in some serious parlay exposure, something that can be true most weeks, but most weeks have 4 games. It’s a wonder we got this game so late this week.
But the forecasts have done so well and now prettily handily predict Winnipeg. Winnipeg is running extremely hot stats wise (but not as hot as Calgary betting wise) leading to large forecast scores for Winnipeg and that will regress, but when?
The only bet I’m considering at this stage that isn’t a forecast prediction is the Over/Under buying points middle opportunity. Given the recent market set ups and the game one results, I’m passing on countering with BC.
But you know I’m tempted and you know why.
I can’t wait until next week, when we can really take these forecast for season competition. Of course I worry about a pullback given the recent success, but it seems the market overall is doing a good job of mitigating the exposure and getting money on both sides.
This is the up to date state of the market as I see it. You can use this information alongside your own handicapping or go ahead and blindly press the forecasts that are in agreement, but do so at your own explained risk.
There may be a reason Lulay is back.
Good Luck.
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Great write up as per usual, lots of info on it.
I feel like BC is really forcing Lulay in the game for the sake of not playing Jennings. Therefore, I am going with Winnipeg -5.0Comment
