Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

**homie1975** · 04-06-20, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

What triggered this buying? It made 0 sense a oil plummeting, gold skyrocketed, unemployment figure way up in State by state analysis and no substantial change in CV death rate...

It's got to go down 20-25% over next 2 weeks.

No company is going to make earnings and half of US small businesses are going to be in default of debt....not to mention private house mortgage concerns.

Minny
there is the school of thought that essentially everything you named above is already priced into the market, that the weak hands have been washed out already. the thought that the market is so efficient and forward thinking that it knows what's coming and is forming the next bull while many of us are sitting on the sidelines with our dikks in our hands, waiting for the next pullback.

as for me, 60% of my allocated stock capital is in. 25% was already in on 2/19 at the ATH and then since that point between late Feb and 3/23 I deployed another 35%. i am holding the 40% waiting because i am in your camp, but i'll be damned if the other camp is not loud and somewhat convincing. i'm trying to dial out the noise but it can be deafening even when on mute but you see the market rip like it did today.

**MinnesotaFats** · 04-07-20, 06:20 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

Minny
there is the school of thought that essentially everything you named above is already priced into the market, that the weak hands have been washed out already. the thought that the market is so efficient and forward thinking that it knows what's coming and is forming the next bull while many of us are sitting on the sidelines with our dikks in our hands, waiting for the next pullback.

as for me, 60% of my allocated stock capital is in. 25% was already in on 2/19 at the ATH and then since that point between late Feb and 3/23 I deployed another 35%. i am holding the 40% waiting because i am in your camp, but i'll be damned if the other camp is not loud and somewhat convincing. i'm trying to dial out the noise but it can be deafening even when on mute but you see the market rip like it did today.

I am having a terribly difficult time understanding how you "price" a marketplace where there are 15 million new unemployed people with 0 money. Where hundreds of thousands of main street businesses have 0 revenue and where 40% of small cap publicly traded companies are expected to have negative cash on cash PL

This is a disaster economic scenario, still shut down for 3 + weeks min, and impossible for recovery for all but the most well funded large companies. This is going to reshape everything. The malls are going to lose their tenents, everything is shifting online, no DIY is buying a car or a house, 60% of America wont be working at all, nobody buying gas or dining out.....I cannot see any value in a 10-15xs EPS on a publicly traded company outside the tech sector

**asiagambler** · 04-07-20, 06:39 AM

I don't know how anything can be priced in already when there is so much uncertainty. No one knows what the fukk is going on

You're basically making bets on the virus a true black swan event. That's my opinion anyway

**homie1975** · 04-07-20, 06:56 AM

Minny and AG I'm not disagreeing with u but the market is.

Up 800 in futures. Yesterday's run continues.

I'm waiting for the W to form, hopefully we're not wrong.

**chico2663** · 04-07-20, 07:17 AM

they believe we are at the apex. aker still skyrocketing.

**homie1975** · 04-07-20, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by chico2663

they believe we are at the apex. aker still skyrocketing.

Chico
Watch what happens in the rural areas over the next few weeks.

**chico2663** · 04-07-20, 08:16 AM

still isn't that bad here. except for some stupid bitch from tomball that infected others.

**homie1975** · 04-07-20, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by chico2663

still isn't that bad here. except for some stupid bitch from tomball that infected others.

Chico the TX surge might be coming just like in the other southern states, be careful out there, Mate

**HockeyRocks** · 04-07-20, 08:43 AM

So a question for you econ pros.
When i hear the administration say we want to "open the economy back up." in 2-3 weeks. What does that exactly mean? How will u open cities like, Boston, New York, Miami, New Orleans, Houston, Detroit, Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle, Baltimore and so many other smaller size cities still having virus issues and many of them are just beginning with thier upward curve. With the virus still living and infecting people how will you even get people out in the public and away from their homes.

**milwaukee mike** · 04-07-20, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by HockeyRocks

So a question for you econ pros.
When i hear the administration say we want to "open the economy back up." in 2-3 weeks. What does that exactly mean? How will u open cities like, Boston, New York, Miami, New Orleans, Houston, Detroit, Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle, Baltimore and so many other smaller size cities still having virus issues and many of them are just beginning with thier upward curve. With the virus still living and infecting people how will you even get people out in the public and away from their homes.

people are already going out to the grocery store/walmart/etc... there are a lot more people when i go to those places then there would be at a movie theater/restaurant/etc... use some common sense, space stuff out and we'll be fine

i still can walk into panera and get coffee, can walk into the sub shop and order, not everyone is scared shitless

**HockeyRocks** · 04-07-20, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

people are already going out to the grocery store/walmart/etc... there are a lot more people when i go to those places then there would be at a movie theater/restaurant/etc... use some common sense, space stuff out and we'll be fine

i still can walk into panera and get coffee, can walk into the sub shop and order, not everyone is scared shitless

Even though here in NC we under a "stay at home order", grocery stores, walmart, targets etc. never have closed, that shouldn't be an issue. All schools are closed. Many bussinees shut down. Ive had several doctors appointments canceled because offices have closed etc. Restaurants are closed excpet for curb side pickup. What State do you live in? Are you saying movie theaters are open where you live? Again, does anyone know what "open the econmy back up" means?

**MinnesotaFats** · 04-07-20, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by HockeyRocks

So a question for you econ pros.
When i hear the administration say we want to "open the economy back up." in 2-3 weeks. What does that exactly mean? How will u open cities like, Boston, New York, Miami, New Orleans, Houston, Detroit, Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle, Baltimore and so many other smaller size cities still having virus issues and many of them are just beginning with thier upward curve. With the virus still living and infecting people how will you even get people out in the public and away from their homes.

It just means that the Feds will reissue "guidlines" that are less restrictive.

These orders are at the State and County level. It's up to the States and Counties to reopen. They control local licenses (liquor and food) and the Sheriffs (the roads and rural policing).

In other words, the reopening will be a slow and drawn out process just like the closing was.

**HockeyRocks** · 04-07-20, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

It just means that the Feds will reissue "guidlines" that are less restrictive.

These orders are at the State and County level. It's up to the States and Counties to reopen. They control local licenses (liquor and food) and the Sheriffs (the roads and rural policing).

In other words, the reopening will be a slow and drawn out process just like the closing was.

Thanks mannn for your opinion....... Used to love to watch Madano play...

**d2bets** · 04-07-20, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

It just means that the Feds will reissue "guidlines" that are less restrictive.

These orders are at the State and County level. It's up to the States and Counties to reopen. They control local licenses (liquor and food) and the Sheriffs (the roads and rural policing).

In other words, the reopening will be a slow and drawn out process just like the closing was.

There's going to be tension with various businesses telling employees to get their assees back to work and some employees saying it's not safe enough. Imagine if employees voice concerns, the business opens back up, and there's an outbreak at the factory leading to illnesses and deaths. What's the liability?

**Slurry Pumper** · 04-07-20, 10:26 AM

Well this rally started a little earlier than I thought which is why I like to ease into positions ahead of time in times like these. So I do have some shares working for me although I feel that the market has made its move. At around 2700, the S&P has some resistance the volume so far looks O.K., but I'm not gonna be surprised to see a sell off into the close. Then again if we have a rally into the close that gets the S&P above the 2700 level, I will probably add to my positions and wait until the next resistance level at about 2850 which would make a pretty good rally and a higher high in these times of bad news. Keep tight stops in place and be ready to change on a dime and short, the market lows of March are still in play and will probably be tested if not penetrated on the way to new lows.

**homie1975** · 04-07-20, 10:42 AM

marco rubio says congress looking at ways to get more money out to american businesses and workers and the market gets some more optimism injected LOL

**d2bets** · 04-07-20, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

Well this rally started a little earlier than I thought which is why I like to ease into positions ahead of time in times like these. So I do have some shares working for me although I feel that the market has made its move. At around 2700, the S&P has some resistance the volume so far looks O.K., but I'm not gonna be surprised to see a sell off into the close. Then again if we have a rally into the close that gets the S&P above the 2700 level, I will probably add to my positions and wait until the next resistance level at about 2850 which would make a pretty good rally and a higher high in these times of bad news. Keep tight stops in place and be ready to change on a dime and short, the market lows of March are still in play and will probably be tested if not penetrated on the way to new lows.

That's an almost 20% drop from current levels.

**d2bets** · 04-07-20, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

marco rubio says congress looking at ways to get more money out to american businesses and workers and the market gets some more optimism injected LOL

Endless cash. I'm telling you if they accept whatever PPP comes in, it's going to blow past 350 bil so fast. I betcha that could be over 1 tril for that program alone. It is very broad and is a massive giveaway to almost every small biz that doesn't close.

In a few months, could see small biz's that are reopened and loaded with more cash to spend than before.

**Slurry Pumper** · 04-07-20, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

That's an almost 20% drop from current levels.

A good short selling rally with the chance of going even lower once the fun of free money has set in and the stuff the market is ignoring is still there. If your optimistic the market can rally from here on hope and change, it worked in 2009 so why not again?

**d2bets** · 04-07-20, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

A good short selling rally with the chance of going even lower once the fun of free money has set in and the stuff the market is ignoring is still there. If your optimistic the market can rally from here on hope and change, it worked in 2009 so why not again?

I mean I agree it's hard to see it going much higher in the short-term, and could fall back some. The intermediate term is also more challenging than some think. But I do think whwn the dust settles in 14 to 18 months, profits will become supercharged with all of the money out there, the investments made in the meantime, technology and I see productivity then rising fast as business adapted. S&P 4,000 by the end of 2022 (and it doesn't matter if it's President Trump or President Biden - that stuff is just theater).

**Slurry Pumper** · 04-07-20, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

I mean I agree it's hard to see it going much higher in the short-term, and could fall back some. The intermediate term is also more challenging than some think. But I do think whwn the dust settles in 14 to 18 months, profits will become supercharged with all of the money out there, the investments made in the meantime, technology and I see productivity then rising fast as business adapted. S&P 4,000 by the end of 2022 (and it doesn't matter if it's President Trump or President Biden - that stuff is just theater).

Yeah, I'm trying to catch some long term positions as well with BA as a favored government bailout stock, and SPH which is one of my favs because the stock has a 15% dividend and a usually steady price, and at around $14, I can't stop loading up. I'm trying to find a tech sector stock I like other than Apple, and Tesla. Tesla doesn't deserve its high stock price, but I've been shorting and going long with much success on that one and I can't leave that cash cow alone.

**d2bets** · 04-07-20, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

Yeah, I'm trying to catch some long term positions as well with BA as a favored government bailout stock, and SPH which is one of my favs because the stock has a 15% dividend and a usually steady price, and at around $14, I can't stop loading up. I'm trying to find a tech sector stock I like other than Apple, and Tesla. Tesla doesn't deserve its high stock price, but I've been shorting and going long with much success on that one and I can't leave that cash cow alone.

Nvidia, hands down. You're welcome.

**Madison** · 04-07-20, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

bubble is never gonna be reinflated... deflationary environment/high unemployment isn't really a good thing for stocks once the free money runs out.

after a couple weeks we already have the worst economy since the great depression, imagine months more of this... what is real estate worth? what is a business worth? what is a mall or hotel worth?

nobody knows the answers to those questions, so i think it's still better to be cautious rather than "load up"

Look out below for real estate. Was overinflated to begin with.

**d2bets** · 04-07-20, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Look out below for real estate. Was overinflated to begin with.

Maybe, but people need homes more than ever. Many may find their home doesn't fit the stay-at-home model. But builders may stop building. Shortage. I'm sure it's difficult to sell homes for a bit here, but then it may actually go the other way and boom. I could be wrong, but I'm not so sure real estate prices will fall hard for long. If you were looking to buy, later this year may actually be the perfect time. Lock in housing costs. Renting sucks.

**chico2663** · 04-07-20, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

Yeah, I'm trying to catch some long term positions as well with BA as a favored government bailout stock, and SPH which is one of my favs because the stock has a 15% dividend and a usually steady price, and at around $14, I can't stop loading up. I'm trying to find a tech sector stock I like other than Apple, and Tesla. Tesla doesn't deserve its high stock price, but I've been shorting and going long with much success on that one and I can't leave that cash cow alone.

made a shitload on swks earlier in the year

**milwaukee mike** · 04-07-20, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Maybe, but people need homes more than ever. Many may find their home doesn't fit the stay-at-home model. But builders may stop building. Shortage. I'm sure it's difficult to sell homes for a bit here, but then it may actually go the other way and boom. I could be wrong, but I'm not so sure real estate prices will fall hard for long. If you were looking to buy, later this year may actually be the perfect time. Lock in housing costs. Renting sucks.

i agree with this

for 6-12 months we probably have deflation, after that with all the free money that is getting thrown around, how do you not have some huge inflation? especially if we get these infrastructure projects in the trillions of dollars

**homie1975** · 04-07-20, 07:35 PM

So much conjecture (not pointing at you guys as I enjoy the opinions) out there but how does this market react when earnings are even lower than the numbers they've been trimmed to? And what's the guidance for Q2?

How does the market not drop another 10% minimum and probably more like 15-20% Is the market so efficient not to get rocked by what's coming in the financials the next 7 weeks?

**kaliboyz** · 04-08-20, 06:23 AM

.......

**kaliboyz** · 04-08-20, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by kaliboyz

Buy NVAX guys... Y'all welcome.

Y'all ready? Will be skyrocket very soon.

They found the cure and tested on animals. Going to test it on 130 human in May. Also, signed an agreement with Emergent to be the manufacturer once the vaccine is done.

Error 404 (Not Found)!!1

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seeking...cine-candidate

**milwaukee mike** · 04-08-20, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

So much conjecture (not pointing at you guys as I enjoy the opinions) out there but how does this market react when earnings are even lower than the numbers they've been trimmed to? And what's the guidance for Q2?

How does the market not drop another 10% minimum and probably more like 15-20% Is the market so efficient not to get rocked by what's coming in the financials the next 7 weeks?

earnings are a non-event

throw a quarter or 2 in the trash... people like me are looking at the long-term

fearmongers overplayed their hand when gates said the world should totally stop for the next 10 weeks... d2bets won't agree with me, but cold/flu season is coming to an end, and with it the coronavirus comes to an abrupt end

"we need 100,000 beds!" "oh wait we only need 20,000 beds" "oh wait we don't need any"

**milwaukee mike** · 04-08-20, 08:05 AM

here's one to my point about the quarter being a throw away... NLY announced that they are going to show a loss of $2.50/share for the quarter (with the stock at 4.45). so their net loss for 1 quarter is more than half of the market cap, and guess what? the stock is up 22% on that news!

**homie1975** · 04-08-20, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

here's one to my point about the quarter being a throw away... NLY announced that they are going to show a loss of $2.50/share for the quarter (with the stock at 4.45). so their net loss for 1 quarter is more than half of the market cap, and guess what? the stock is up 22% on that news!

Maybe because of that 25% divvy?

Your opinion on earnings is in the minority but that's not necessarily a bad thing!!

**homie1975** · 04-08-20, 08:12 AM

MCD. McDonalds. Same store sales down 22% let's watch this one today

**MinnesotaFats** · 04-08-20, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

MCD. McDonalds. Same store sales down 22% let's watch this one today

This is just what I've been saying

NOONE has any fukking money. There is no stock worth a 10x earnings (projections are shit anyway).

This market, maybe not the big industrials because they find a way to get their hands on stimulous, but the small cap sticks and the main street businesses are fukking finished guys... like apocalyptic disaster. Families wealth and business creations are ruined.

Were not getting infrastructure. You'll get a 500b 2nd stimulus and if they're smart it'll go ($5k) to every non SS recipient. No loans or guarantees or bailouts, just direct payments.

Why the fukk that dipshit Pelosi included SS recipients in the last one was beyond me. They didnt lose a job or take a pay cut. Working class people could have received $2500 if they dropped the SS recipients.

The Libs are going to fukk this up guys. Schumer and Pelosi are going to fukk this up and the whole thing is going to tank. Trump and the Turtle will have to go along for politics and it'll be the end of him.

So long as States stay shuttered there is no value in equities, so long as Fed prints money and lowers rates theres no value in bonds and so long as SS people and big businesses get all the stimulus there's no hope of recovery.

Unless the money goes to healthy people 18- 60 we will NOT recover. This is a consumer based economy, put the $$$ in the hands of the working class consumer.

**d2bets** · 04-08-20, 10:24 AM

Back to up up and away. Incredible. Can it sustain in the afternoon into the close?

Seems like S&P 2800 could be on deck by tomorrow?