Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Keep an eye on the 10 year. It controls so much. I just bought my first Corp Bond (Circa 6%, 4YR). Once again. I'm old and preservation of capital is important to me. I think it should be for everyone (% of portfolio), leveraged to your age.

Personally, I'd like to see Milw Mike, appear again.

1) Milw Mike is knowledgeable. Always had good takes. You out there, Mike?
2) I understand your concept of preservation. I just think the concept of Real vs Nominal is showing up now more than ever.
3) Will keep an eye on your 10-year. Bonds are a big story in recent days.

[Madison]

IONQ out of control. MY CB circa 2-3$ share. I can't count the # of people I gave this one to. My gut MSFT, AMZN, HON, IBM, ?? one of the bigger players buys and stock goes further to the moon??

[Madison]

Keep your eye on QBTS. I'm up over 250% to date so be cautious for volatility dips but Quantum going thru the roof until Jenson Thong makes another erroneous statement.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This is a 200 page story. The US national debt (Interest/see above) can not sustain itself with higher rates. The one thing in IMHO you can go to the bank on is INFLATION/Devaluation of your dollars. Hard assets (Homes/Gold/Bit??) are the savior.

Salud, Mad. Some would think that the USA is immune to hyper-inflation. Inflation is coming, it's just a matter of HOW MUCH.

Agree with your comments. Only one I'd question = Homes. Historically, real estate has appreciated to at least be > inflation. I'd question that going fwd. Have to pay for maintenance and repairs. Home value is very sensitive to the mortgage rate one can qualify for. Homes may not be the fail-safe they have been, but I understand your point that many people still seek out real estate as an investment.

[pavyracer]

Keep your eye on QBTS. I'm up over 250% to date so be cautious for volatility dips but Quantum going thru the roof until Jenson Thong makes another erroneous statement.

What do you think about MLGO? I grabbed a 1,000 shares at $1.25 a few days back and now it shot up to $2.25. I'd like to lock an easy profit but not sure what is driving the price up. It went down very quickly and now it shot up too quickly.

[Madison]

What do you think about MLGO? I grabbed a 1,000 shares at $1.25 a few days back and now it shot up to $2.25. I'd like to lock an easy profit but not sure what is driving the price up. It went down very quickly and now it shot up too quickly.

Regarding MLGO ... Boy you can't find a chart much worse than that. Recent trading looks meme like to me. Personally, I'd trade very carefully and grab profits when presented.

[Madison]

A little history from back in the day.

Even during periods when stocks go up most years, like from 1966 to 1982 when stocks rose in 10 of those 16 years (62.5% of the time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average didn't make one new high from January 1973, at the top of a steep bear market, until November 1982.
It's clearly possible for stocks to finish a nearly two-decade period with a nominal capital gain of zero (and an inflation-adjusted capital gain of less than zero).

[guitarjosh]

A little history from back in the day.

Even during periods when stocks go up most years, like from 1966 to 1982 when stocks rose in 10 of those 16 years (62.5% of the time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average didn't make one new high from January 1973, at the top of a steep bear market, until November 1982.
It's clearly possible for stocks to finish a nearly two-decade period with a nominal capital gain of zero (and an inflation-adjusted capital gain of less than zero).

I know you're talking about the DJIA, but the P/E Ratio for the S&P 500 was around 19 in January 1973, and had fallen to under 10 by November 1982. Fair value is considered 15, and the P/E Ratio was briefly under 7 in August 1982. From that period until the peak in 2000, the S&P 500 went up by roughly 1,400%, but 500% of that gain was just due to P/E Ratio expansion.

[Madison]

Where are you positioned now Josh?

P/E Ratio expansion ... Another 30 page chapter in the economics of the market.

[guitarjosh]

Where are you positioned now Josh?

P/E Ratio expansion ... Another 30 page chapter in the economics of the market.

Long stocks, no long option positions. We can pull back a little since there's a gap on the chart on the S&P 500 & Nasdaq

[Madison]

Long stocks, no long option positions. We can pull back a little since there's a gap on the chart on the S&P 500 & Nasdaq

Thank you!

[homie1975]

TACO got by the judges and markets ripped after hours lol

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, boys. Adding some Copper to my stock portfolio. I buy SCCO.

Anyone can list other good Copper investments. Think Madison tipped me on SCCO.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, boys. Adding some Copper to my stock portfolio. I buy SCCO.

Anyone can list other good Copper investments. Think Madison tipped me on SCCO.

Props to all the posters in here. I'm slowly re-balancing my portfolio:
1) Added some to SCCO and COPX. Have reasons to think that Copper value will rise.
2) Have watched Bitcoin videos on STRK. Adding some STRK.
3) Slowly di-vesting some of my DGRO (dividends) and Vanguard (index funds).

Also buying physical Silver when I find good bargains.

[Ian]

Props to all the posters in here. I'm slowly re-balancing my portfolio:
1) Added some to SCCO and COPX. Have reasons to think that Copper value will rise.
2) Have watched Bitcoin videos on STRK. Adding some STRK.
3) Slowly di-vesting some of my DGRO (dividends) and Vanguard (index funds).

Also buying physical Silver when I find good bargains.

Where do you typically find bargains on silver or other physical metals?

I've been thinking on-and-off about picking up physical metals, but the prospect of buying above spot and selling below has always scared me off.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Where do you typically find bargains on silver or other physical metals?

I've been thinking on-and-off about picking up physical metals, but the prospect of buying above spot and selling below has always scared me off.

Hi, Ian. Go to this link:

https://coinzip.com/index.php?state=MO

Local coin-shows are pretty good. Dealers like these shows, b/c they avoid the Ebay fees. If you look hard, can find bargains below the Ebay price.

You are right about the bid/ask spread. That's supposed to be pretty short:
*Top dealers do abide by this. I saw one dealer: Buying Ag @ 22x, Selling Ag @ 26x.
*Most Ag buyers view it as: Buy and Hold, Sell when you have to pay a bill.

[pavyracer]

CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CRSP) will be releasing its Q1 2025 earnings before the market opens on Wednesday, May 14

I bought when you posted this and now is up 35%. Should I keep longer? Do you think it shot up too quickly, or there is more room to go up this year.

Thanks for the tip.

[Madison]

I bought when you posted this and now is up 35%. Should I keep longer? Do you think it shot up too quickly, or there is more room to go up this year.

Thanks for the tip.

You are very welcome. This is a long term speculative play. As someone famous once said "You'll never go broke by taking a profit."

Maybe take 20-35% back and rebuy on any draw downs. IMHO, this market is due for a haircut.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sup, Madison? Mentioned that I've been adding some SCCO/COPX.

Joe Burnett pointed out that the Copper/Gold ratio was quite low. May indicate an upturn in Copper, based on the business-cycle.

[Madison]

Sup, Madison? Mentioned that I've been adding some SCCO/COPX.

Joe Burnett pointed out that the Copper/Gold ratio was quite low. May indicate an upturn in Copper, based on the business-cycle.

Chuck, My CB on Copper is around 3.80? I have and would be careful over 5.00. New build housing is croaking. I'd be a little cautious here.

I have done extremely well with gene editing, robotics, nuclear smr (touted 2 years or so ago), Quantum (touted 2/3 years ago). I'm just at a point where I'm cautious about touting at these valuations.

Have a great holiday!!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Mad. If you don't like my CU picks, take a long look at BITB/HODL/STRK.

Check back in six months. I have a hard time believing that 3-stock lot won't be up > +10%.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sup, Madison? Mentioned that I've been adding some SCCO/COPX.

Joe Burnett pointed out that the Copper/Gold ratio was quite low. May indicate an upturn in Copper, based on the business-cycle.

Bump on this. I'm mostly going BTC stocks. Copper is one other sector I'm bullish on:

SOUTHERN COPPER CORP SCCO: NYSE

Metals & Mining



$96.80+$1.73
...SCCO is doing pretty well. And I expect that to continue.
...Playing off the reversal on Gold/CU ratio.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Shout out to: Madison and everyone. Hope all are doing well.

A few strategies I'm taking on my portfolio:
1) Clearing out more Fiat stocks. In particular, sold off my V (****).
2) I think **** has to be trending down. Restaurants now hate the 3% **** charge.
3) So many restaurants give a cash-discount to avoid the **** fees.

**** is gone. Putting that $$ into Bitcoin ETFs.

[pavyracer]

Difficult to not like.

I've been trading (as posted here previously) UNH between 460-600 quite successfully for a few years. I got hurt recently pretty badly in the last month as I sold circa 600 and started rebuying circa 450. Hard to not really like this play IMHO as long as they don't get convicted of Medicare Fraud. I guess the others would benefit right?

Hi Madison,

I kept buying UNH and HUM as they were going down so now I'm up 35% and 30% on each after 4 months. Is this a good time to sell or should I keep riding them? UNH is really by biggest position and about 25% of my whole portfolio right now. Probably my biggest gain in capital in such a short time. It worked really good as I sold MSTR close to its high and bought those cheap. May try to switch the gains from healthcare stocks and invest back to crypto stocks now that they got cheaper.

[Madison]

Hi Madison,

I kept buying UNH and HUM as they were going down so now I'm up 35% and 30% on each after 4 months. Is this a good time to sell or should I keep riding them? UNH is really by biggest position and about 25% of my whole portfolio right now. Probably my biggest gain in capital in such a short time. It worked really good as I sold MSTR close to its high and bought those cheap. May try to switch the gains from healthcare stocks and invest back to crypto stocks now that they got cheaper.

I doubled down circa 240 a few months ago. Sold that gamble circa 315. Thank you mister Buffett!! I hold 70 shares and holding. If the regulatory cloud ever gets lifted you can easily see the 450's again. This is a long term hold for me.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This is a great thread. I know that I tend to repeat myself. But I'll repeat my stance:

1) I was a little bit worried about MSTR not being included in the Index.
...Saylor diffused it. Said that they didn't expect to make it in first try.
...I would not sell MSTR right now. It's a leveraged BTC play. And the best months are coming end of 2025.
2) Also holding the Bitcoin ETFs like HODL and BITB.
3) Also purchased STRK and STRF. Saylor is an animal, he's attacking the Fixed Income market.
4) Slowly divesting my Vanguard index funds. I don't think they keep up w/ the hurdle rate.
5) Been adding to my copper holdings COPX/SCCO/COPP. I expect the Copper-to-Gold ratio to reverse.

Good Luck, guys!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This guy is really bright:

https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video;_ylt=AwrFD9ycK8RousIEY3FXNyoA;_ylu=Y29sbwNiZjEEcG9zAzEEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3Nj?type=E211US1357G0&p=joe+burnett%2C+copper-to-gold+ratio&fr=mcafee&turl=https%3A%2F%2Ftse3.mm.bing.net%2Fth%2Fid%2FOVP.mMdWT07S0dJ0plPAMcdNvAEsDh%3Fpid%3DApi%26w%3D296%26h%3D156%26c%3D7%26p%3D0&rurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D18yEMHUsLqg&tit=This+macro+indicator+has+predicted+every+parabolic+bitcoin+bull+market.&pos=01&vid=8c1dc5d2f7ad40d88b009cd96247bf34&sigr=6sTMoffIMLWE&sigt=mUR0q7Y2BY7q&sigi=AjnYUOs4bsG3

[ChuckyTheGoat]

IONQ out of control. MY CB circa 2-3$ share. I can't count the # of people I gave this one to. My gut MSFT, AMZN, HON, IBM, ?? one of the bigger players buys and stock goes further to the moon??

Have to give credit where credit is due. Thank You, Madison.

IONQ is in my portfolio. I know it's Quantum computing.

Don't fully understand it. But this stock is ripping. And not many other stocks can say that.

[Madison]

Have to give credit where credit is due. Thank You, Madison.

IONQ is in my portfolio. I know it's Quantum computing.

Don't fully understand it. But this stock is ripping. And not many other stocks can say that.

1000x bud. Was going to ask if anyone listened/profited. Glad for you!!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1000x bud. Was going to ask if anyone listened/profited. Glad for you!!!

Thx, Mad. Per usual, it's easy to look in the rear-view mirror.

I like it. But may sell off a portion if it goes up again.

[Madison]

"no one ever went broke taking a profit"

I wish I still had some of my early profits but banked many nice early profits. Just happy someone followed along. Happy for you bud!!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

"no one ever went broke taking a profit"

I wish I still had some of my early profits but banked many nice early profits. Just happy someone followed along. Happy for you bud!!!

True. But there are also a lot of regrets...after Apple stock goes up 100x.

I'm a believer in re-balancing after a Gain. Worth doing periodically.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Mad, I think the best investors are experts in their specific sector. You've given me some good insights on AI. Thank You!

Any opinions on Precious Metals? This is something I've posted on. My opinion:
*Gold: is at an All Time High. Should do well. But I think OTHER metals will do better.
*Silver: I expect the Au/Ag ratio to move closer to historical avg. Which means that Ag should have more legs than Au.
*I do like holding some Platinum. Used to be more costly than an oz of Gold.
*Any opinions on Lithium?
...Lastly, I know that Cu (Copper) is a base metal (not a Precious metal). But I think Copper will rise over the next 12 months, too.

Just my opinion. NFA: Not Financial Advice.

[Madison]

Mad, I think the best investors are experts in their specific sector. You've given me some good insights on AI. Thank You!

Any opinions on Precious Metals? This is something I've posted on. My opinion:
*Gold: is at an All Time High. Should do well. But I think OTHER metals will do better.
*Silver: I expect the Au/Ag ratio to move closer to historical avg. Which means that Ag should have more legs than Au.
*I do like holding some Platinum. Used to be more costly than an oz of Gold.
*Any opinions on Lithium?
...Lastly, I know that Cu (Copper) is a base metal (not a Precious metal). But I think Copper will rise over the next 12 months, too.

Just my opinion. NFA: Not Financial Advice.

Keep your eye on Uranium and SMR. Gave this out as well with Quantum. Just worried that at some point it's already overplayed.

Gold and SLV up 100%. I've stuck with miners ALB. Traded them for years, but when they hit 50ish I jumped in big and think I recommended here.

BOL Bud!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Keep your eye on Uranium and SMR. Gave this out as well with Quantum. Just worried that at some point it's already overplayed.

Gold and SLV up 100%. I've stuck with miners ALB. Traded them for years, but when they hit 50ish I jumped in big and think I recommended here.

BOL Bud!!

Thx, Mad:
1) I have some Uranium stk.
2) Don't know SMR.
3) I hold some EKWAX. But I don't know if that's a good idea.