Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[ex50warrior]

No President has ever tanked the market the way Trump is. If Harris, Biden, Obama or anyone had done this, Trump would be calling for impeachment. If he doesn't reverse course, it's going to be a global depression the likes of which nobody has ever seen. 100% self-inflicted Trump-induced. The blue wave in 2026 will be astounding and overwhelming. Republicans deserve it. And anyone of them speaking up now -- too little, too late ya spineless weasles.

You may be right but I'm struggling to figure out what will happen next week, let alone late 2026.

I did sell a few more out-of-the money puts on stocks I'd like to own on Friday just before the close, and added a little more Vanguard mutual funds. I'm keeping the rest of my powder dry in case TRob is right about a free-fall.

[pavyracer]

You may be right but I'm struggling to figure out what will happen next week, let alone late 2026.

I did sell a few more out-of-the money puts on stocks I'd like to own on Friday just before the close, and added a little more Vanguard mutual funds. I'm keeping the rest of my powder dry in case TRob is right about a free-fall.

My guess is if Trump doesn't back down on tariffs the Republicans in Congress won't approve his tax cuts or anything else in his agenda. So there would be a point where Trump needs to decide. Keep tanking the stock market and being blamed for it, and Congress stalls his agenda until he changes course.

[k13]

Just a discount on all the stocks you love.
Stop crying.
Lot of them have barely even moved.

Bring on more pain.

[guitarjosh]

Josh, will be interesting to see if Monday is bad (as you infer). What is going on here? Are people losing faith in the USD as a currency?

See the Friday divergence in the Bitcoin stocks versus most other Stocks. Pretty eye-opening.

I don't know what will happen tomorrow, but if we crash again, I'll be buying something. We're not going to go to 0, and we're already down around 20% from an all time high.

[ex50warrior]

Wow, another wave of selling in the futures market. Where is that Plunge Protection Team when you need them?

[d2bets]

Wow, another wave of selling in the futures market. Where is that Plunge Protection Team when you need them?

The Trump Crash continues. This is 100% on Trump and nobody else. A self-inflicted wound.



Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump




The stock market and US dollar are both plunging today. Welcome to
@BarackObama
’s second term.
[URL="https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/266285251515531264"]3:05 PM

[INVEGA MAN]

Down another 800 so far!! That damn biden11

[ex50warrior]

Couldn't pass up the incredible option premium...sold some far (I think) out-of-the money BABA puts. We'll see what happens when all the dust settles.

[homie1975]

The Trump Crash continues. This is 100% on Trump and nobody else. A self-inflicted wound.



Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump




The stock market and US dollar are both plunging today. Welcome to
@BarackObama
’s second term.
[URL="https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/266285251515531264"]3:05 PM

it is peter fukking navarro who went to jail for trump and trump feels indebted to PN.

navarro is a major isolationist and most of this is his brainchild mixed with trump's feelings for 40 years.

it is almost the full antithesis of reagan.

[trobin31]

I’m gonna need some follow through on this move

this is far from over

it’s basically open extortion and market manipulation at this point

Going into earnings season here so the move might be legit

[pavyracer]

Trump capitulated on tariffs. You can play the bully so much until you get punched in the face. The party took the tariff toys away from him.

[homie1975]

I’m gonna need some follow through on this move

this is far from over

it’s basically open extortion and market manipulation at this point

Going into earnings season here so the move might be legit

the guides will be very low or removed altogether so even if the earnings hit for most companies, the guides will be the issue.

[homie1975]

Trump capitulated on tariffs. You can play the bully so much until you get punched in the face. The party took the tariff toys away from him.

not against China, he escalated v them

[johnnyvegas13]

Glad I am not in the stock market

[kyhawk]

Anyone here just scalp the one minute Nasdaq, the mini nq? Nasdaq 100 emini futures on my TradingView.

On my TOS or think or swim with Schwab the symbol is /nq for the "bigger nq" or mnq for the mini.

I have been scalping on my paper trading account with TOS and doing OK. Getting in and out quickly.

I have a funded account at TakeProfitTrader and will use their money starting next week.

The max you can lose then is if you blow your account or in my case for the 25k under 100.

Hard to blow just trading one emini. Goal is to scale up slowly.

I.e. make a minimum of 100 a day. Then get out PERIOD. Scale up slowly to making 1k a day trading the NQ

[getlucky2win]

Buy high. Sell higher

[johnnyvegas13]

Anyone buying right now ???

[guitarjosh]

Anyone buying right now ???

Yeah I bought options in some sectors that were really washed out and they're already up over 100%

[d2bets]

Anyone buying right now ???

NASDAQ might jump 10% Monday.

[guitarjosh]

NASDAQ might jump 10% Monday.

I hope so.

[homie1975]

NASDAQ might jump 10% Monday.

no way

rips are selling

that is not a good sign

market is very shaky

[homie1975]

1% whimper so far. 60 mins left in the session. meh

[homie1975]

trading sideways.

NVDA down over 6% in after hours after sharing info on massive expenses on chip exports due to tariffs

[ex50warrior]

Sure am tempted to buy NVDA on sale. How low do we go??

[homie1975]

What a shitshow

[homie1975]

4D chess for the win !! LOLOL

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Pretty big disconnect today:
*BTC stocks and Hard money up
*Most everything else Down

[veriableodds]

RAY DALIO ENHANCED AI PORTFOLIO (stability, growth, diversification) w/breakdown of % allocation, and current div. yield
-BONDS-55%
TLT 10% //4.3%
IEF 10%//3.7%
TYO 6%//4.2%
AGGH 9.66%//8.1%
TLTW 9.66%//15.3%
LQDW 9.66%//15.4%
-COMMODITY-15%
GOLDX 3%//1.4%
DBC 3%//5.2%
CMDT 3%//8.4%
SLVO 2%//30%
USOI 2%//23%
GLDI 2%//13%
-EQUITY-30%
VTI 9%//1.4%
VYM 3%//3%
SDOW 1%/6.4%
SPXU 1%//6.4%
SQQQ 1%//7.3%
UVIX 1%// no div.
ISPY 4%//12%
GPIX 4%/9.4%
GAB 4%//11.4%
AIPI 2%//31%
You average almost 9K per year in div. based on 100k

[homie1975]

china flexed again last night, saying they will retaliate against any countries who we (the USA) try to use to isolate china.

donnie is getting boxed in.

the walls are closing in.

he can run but he cannot hide.

china is in this to win this.

heavyweight fight, Ali v Frazier.

i do not know which one we are at this point.

it is a coinflip.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

RAY DALIO ENHANCED AI PORTFOLIO (stability, growth, diversification) w/breakdown of % allocation, and current div. yield
-BONDS-55%
TLT 10% //4.3%
IEF 10%//3.7%
TYO 6%//4.2%
AGGH 9.66%//8.1%
TLTW 9.66%//15.3%
LQDW 9.66%//15.4%
-COMMODITY-15%
GOLDX 3%//1.4%
DBC 3%//5.2%
CMDT 3%//8.4%
SLVO 2%//30%
USOI 2%//23%
GLDI 2%//13%
-EQUITY-30%
VTI 9%//1.4%
VYM 3%//3%
SDOW 1%/6.4%
SPXU 1%//6.4%
SQQQ 1%//7.3%
UVIX 1%// no div.
ISPY 4%//12%
GPIX 4%/9.4%
GAB 4%//11.4%
AIPI 2%//31%
You average almost 9K per year in div. based on 100k

I wonder if Dalio still believes in that. I'm becoming a bigger skeptic on Dividend yield.

Have to do something to counter currency de-basement. But I'm not sure it's Dividends.

[ex50warrior]

china flexed again last night, saying they will retaliate against any countries who we (the USA) try to use to isolate china.

donnie is getting boxed in.

the walls are closing in.

he can run but he cannot hide.

china is in this to win this.

heavyweight fight, Ali v Frazier.

i do not know which one we are at this point.

it is a coinflip.

A heavyweight fight is a good analogy of the situation. I'm still betting the walls close in on China and most countries align with the US.
So I'm selling more out-of-the-money puts on stocks I'd like to own along with some selective buying. But trying to keep enough ammo dry to buy more if the market keeps going lower.

[veriableodds]

I wonder if Dalio still believes in that. I'm becoming a bigger skeptic on Dividend yield.

Have to do something to counter currency de-basement. But I'm not sure it's Dividends.

This could be a deep debate but just some comments and notes are all I can give. The ALL-WEATHER Portfolio isn't supposed to beat the S&P 500, and it doesn't. Nor should you expect it to. From my understanding the sp500 historically returns 9% the RAY is a tick under 5%. the draw down or AKA beta factor is 40% less with RAY then the sp500. The devaluation of the dollar is what gold, silver, copper, oil, Interational stocks are for.
Today with the above example post above it only lost -$502 a tickle above 1/2%. Built in hedges are the reason. The hedges equate to 11% but are3x inverse, even if the market goes up you will get the benefit of growth. Skeptical about dividends I see! the only explanation I have for this would be say you buy in for $100 over a short term like 18 months you get the whole 100 back in whatever timed pay installments. The original 100 has now dropped to 42 well you still made 42%. If I need anything at all from an investment and that time frame is less than 5 years, It's safe to say that person doesn't belong investing
So how much money does one need to live? Thats where the problem lies.
homeowner -vs- renter
car owner -vs- leasing or payment (DRASTIC difference on the insurance side)
aldi's -vs- whole foods
private HSA -vs- traditional healthcare
debt free -vs- lets live in debt with a credit card
ect ect

[pavyracer]

china flexed again last night, saying they will retaliate against any countries who we (the USA) try to use to isolate china.

donnie is getting boxed in.

the walls are closing in.

he can run but he cannot hide.

china is in this to win this.

heavyweight fight, Ali v Frazier.

i do not know which one we are at this point.

it is a coinflip.

I think if the big boys earnings, which gave him a million each for favors, turn out to be bad the pressure to abandon the tariffs would be immense. Like another 10% drop in a day or two and Trump would be done and ready to wave the white flag.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This could be a deep debate but just some comments and notes are all I can give. The ALL-WEATHER Portfolio isn't supposed to beat the S&P 500, and it doesn't. Nor should you expect it to. From my understanding the sp500 historically returns 9% the RAY is a tick under 5%. the draw down or AKA beta factor is 40% less with RAY then the sp500. The devaluation of the dollar is what gold, silver, copper, oil, Interational stocks are for.
Today with the above example post above it only lost -$502 a tickle above 1/2%. Built in hedges are the reason. The hedges equate to 11% but are3x inverse, even if the market goes up you will get the benefit of growth. Skeptical about dividends I see! the only explanation I have for this would be say you buy in for $100 over a short term like 18 months you get the whole 100 back in whatever timed pay installments. The original 100 has now dropped to 42 well you still made 42%. If I need anything at all from an investment and that time frame is less than 5 years, It's safe to say that person doesn't belong investing
So how much money does one need to live? Thats where the problem lies.
homeowner -vs- renter
car owner -vs- leasing or payment (DRASTIC difference on the insurance side)
aldi's -vs- whole foods
private HSA -vs- traditional healthcare
debt free -vs- lets live in debt with a credit card
ect ect

Hi, veri. Thx for your post. Life is about learning, and you know I respect your opinion.

I will digest a lot of what you say. A lot to consider:
1) Home Ownership has long been viewed as a solid investment with people who have extra capital available. I think that is dubious in the near future. Rent vs Own is a good debate.
2) I've written about the Car ownership. Holy shit, you talk about a money-drain. If I was on a short-lease, I'd think about selling my car and riding a bike.
3) Credit card use - The BEST users can be on the + side of things. But many of us let the interest slide, and it becomes an albatross.

We'll talk more later.

[marco1313]

This could be a deep debate but just some comments and notes are all I can give. The ALL-WEATHER Portfolio isn't supposed to beat the S&P 500, and it doesn't. Nor should you expect it to. From my understanding the sp500 historically returns 9% the RAY is a tick under 5%. the draw down or AKA beta factor is 40% less with RAY then the sp500. The devaluation of the dollar is what gold, silver, copper, oil, Interational stocks are for.
Today with the above example post above it only lost -$502 a tickle above 1/2%. Built in hedges are the reason. The hedges equate to 11% but are3x inverse, even if the market goes up you will get the benefit of growth. Skeptical about dividends I see! the only explanation I have for this would be say you buy in for $100 over a short term like 18 months you get the whole 100 back in whatever timed pay installments. The original 100 has now dropped to 42 well you still made 42%. If I need anything at all from an investment and that time frame is less than 5 years, It's safe to say that person doesn't belong investing
So how much money does one need to live? Thats where the problem lies.
homeowner -vs- renter
car owner -vs- leasing or payment (DRASTIC difference on the insurance side)
aldi's -vs- whole foods
private HSA -vs- traditional healthcare
debt free -vs- lets live in debt with a credit card
ect ect

Really solid points. I think a lot of people overlook that the All-Weather portfolio is about risk management, not outperformance. It's designed to survive different economic environments, not necessarily beat the S&P 500. And you're absolutely right living costs, lifestyle choices, and personal debt levels are huge factors that impact how much investment risk someone can or should take. Dividends might not be the silver bullet against currency devaluation, but they still have a role depending on the bigger financial picture.