Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[homie1975]

Checker you are missing the point

building money into performing arts sends a clear message that the pandemic really not that serious

unless hillary clinton's granddaughter's piano recital at the kennedy center will cure folks of covid

Not true. Both sides always try to add pork. Been going on for years. If one side has the other in a tough spot (dems know the gop needed this for trump reelection desire) so they attached it.

Pandemic still a huge deal. Huge.

[manny24]

homie you are alright

what should we dump our stimulus checks into long term?

[homie1975]

Probably SPY but I'm thinking more downside exists so I wouldn't go crazy just yet. Plus the stimulus money per person is so small so it's better just to save it for now and spend at local restaurants for takeout to support local businesses.

[keely85]

You degens are actually getting a check? Figured most “stock pros” would be well over the income threshold

[homie1975]

You degens are actually getting a check? Figured most “stock pros” would be well over the income threshold

not a stock pro by any means but not getting a check because my AGI for 2018 Tax is north of $200K so i get nothing.

AGI dipped well below that for 2019 Tax and i already filed my return but i think they'll use the 2018 numbers so i get zilch.

that's okay though, there are so many others who need it more than i do.

[milwaukee mike]

bookmaker has s&p over 2500 at monday's close +145

probably worth a shot, almost 2% of wiggle room and a nice + number

[milwaukee mike]

now the dow over 21600 monday close is up to +213

the way futures bounce around, i think there's probably value on EITHER side at over +200 on any given day

[homie1975]

Mike
Interesting. Keep posting these. Helpful to know what the sports betting market thinks. Sports bettors dying for something to wager on lol.

What are the odds on the Nasdaq?

[Emily_Haines]

now the dow over 21600 monday close is up to +213

the way futures bounce around, i think there's probably value on EITHER side at over +200 on any given day

The government is all out of bullets other than just shutting the whole thing down.

[milwaukee mike]

Mike
Interesting. Keep posting these. Helpful to know what the sports betting market thinks. Sports bettors dying for something to wager on lol.

What are the odds on the Nasdaq?

bookmaker and 5d only have s&p 500/dow

i really like it when they throw up individual stock over/unders, those are fun but i think i kicked bookmaker's ass so bad on them they threw in the towel

[homie1975]

The government is all out of bullets other than just shutting the whole thing down.

Jerome Powell fed says they have plenty of bullets left.

[Mike Huntertz]

Were these available before the sports shut down? Wondering if they are trying anything to get someone to make a wager.
I'm interested. lol
GL

bookmaker has s&p over 2500 at monday's close +145

probably worth a shot, almost 2% of wiggle room and a nice + number

[ex50warrior]

Jerome Powell fed says they have plenty of bullets left.

Yep, they've got bullets left. I just hope they don't have to use them.

[Emily_Haines]

Jerome Powell fed says they have plenty of bullets left.

I guess

They can always print endless amounts of cash

[stevenash]

From Seeking Alpha:




[TABLE="class: yiv6971892722wsb_body, width: 811"]
[TR]
[TD="class: yiv6971892722center"]Welcome to Wall Street Brunch, our preview of stock market events for investors to watch during the upcoming week. You can also catch this article a day early by subscribing to the Stocks to Watch account for Saturday morning delivery. Podcast listener? Subscribe now to receive Wall Street Breakfast by 8:00 a.m. every trading day on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Stitcher and Spotify (click the highlighted links).
Jobs will be a major focus in the week ahead as the U.S. economy reels from the impact of the pandemic. The ADP employment report and weekly initial jobless claims report are due out before the March jobs report drops on April 4. The March jobs report is expected to only show a loss of about 300K jobs as the real damage doesn't arrive until April and May. Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi forecasts the unemployment rate in the U.S. will hit double digits within a few months on delayed repercussions. PMI prints will also pour out next week from Spain, Germany, the U.K. and U.S. to give a quick snapshot of economic activity. The corporate event and earnings calendars are thin once again next week, but investors should be strapped in for plenty of action as animal spirits rage on.
Earnings spotlight: A trio of companies seeing spikes in demand for food products are due to report next week, with egg-producer Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ:CALM) on tap for March 30 and pantry loaders Conagra (NYSE:CAG) and McCormick (NYSE:MKC) both reporting on March 31. Other companies due to spill numbers during the week include Lamb Weston (NYSE:LW) on April 1; Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:WBA), Chewy (NYSE:CHWY) and CarMax (NYSE:KMX) on April 2, as well as Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) on April 3.
Go deeper: See Seeking Alpha's complete list of earnings reporters
IPO watch: WiMi Hologram Cloud (WIMI) is expected to price its IPO on March 30. IPO lockup periods expire on Viela Bio (NASDAQ:VIE), Aprea Therapeutics (NASDAQ:APRE), Frequency Therapeutics (NASDAQ:FREQ) and MetroCity Bankshares (NASDAQ:OTC:MCBS) on March 31. The analyst quiet period runs out on GFL Environmental (NYSE:GFL) on March 30. Across the Pacific, the IPO lockup period expires on Budweiser Brewing Company (BUDBC) in Hong Kong. Shares of BUDBC are down 22% since the beer company was set free from Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:BUD).

Go deeper: Catch up on all the latest IPO news.
Projected dividend changes (quarterly): Bank OZK (NASDAQ:OZK) to $0.27 from $0.26, Constellation Brands to $0.76 from $0.75, SM Energy (NYSE:SM) to $0.01 from $0.05, and Dollarama (OTCLMAF) to C$0.050 from C$0.044.
Go deeper: Read the latest dividend analysis.
M&A tidbits: Shareholders with the Rubicon Project (NYSE:RUBI) vote on the company's merger with Telaria (NYSE:TLRA) on March 30. The walk data on China Oceanwide's acquisition of Genworth Financial (NYSE:GNW) is March 31. The tender off expires on the Super ROI Global-Jumei International (NYSE:JMEI) deal on April 1.
Analyst/investor meetings: Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) rescheduled its investor day update that was planned for March 31 without setting a new date. Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) also pulled the plug on its event, while GoDaddy (NYSE:GDDY) is going to an online format with its presentation set for April 2. Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE:EPD) and The Andersons (NASDAQ:ANDE) also have events scheduled.
Apple's non-event: While Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) made a surprise announcement already of new versions of iPad Pro, Mac Mini and MacBook Air devices with its March 31 keynote event canceled, the company stopped short of announcing a launch of the new lower-cost iPhone 9. Some reports indicate that Apple has held internal discussions about potentially delaying the launch by months due to supply chain issues arising from the pandemic. There is also some talk that Apple will push back the debut of the highly-anticipated Apple 12 5G smartphone from the traditional September window. "We believe the chances for a launch in the September/October time frame is "extremely unlikely" and would assign a 10%-15% probability it happens given the lingering supply chain issues that remain across Asia," warns Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives. The firm is still bullish on Apple for the long term due in part to the 5G super cycle.
IT disruption: The tech sector has been disrupted by the pandemic, not just with share price declines, but an upheaval of IT demand changes that could be a game changer. Taking the long view, JPMorgan sees an acceleration in certain slow-moving IT infrastructure trends driven by the broadening disruption of COVID-19. In particular, the firm notes increasing bandwidth requirements due to the increasing number of employees working from home in a trend that looks positive for Ciena (NYSE:CIEN), CommScope (NASDAQ:COMM), Infinera (NASDAQ:INFN) and Hewlett-Packard Enterprises' (NYSE:HPE) Aruba. An increase in leverage of the public cloud is seen setting up Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET) and NICE Ltd. (NASDAQ:NICE), while the increase in migration from proprietary hardware solutions to virtual solutions is seen as a win for VMware (NYSE:VMW). Then there is the sudden growth of contactless transactions, led by the adoption of electronic wallets to reduce human-to-human interaction. That development looks good for Diebold Nixdorf (NYSE:OTCPKBD) and NCR (NYSE:NCR). With everyone burning up their laptops for the next few weeks or longer, JP sees an upgrade cycle benefit for HP (NYSE:HPQ), Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) and Logitech (NASDAQ:LOGI). In semiconductors, the firm taps Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL), Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO), Inphi (NYSE:IPHI) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) as attractive amid the anticipated strong growth in cloud and hyperscale datacenter spending.

Spotlight on Nielsen numbers: While Nielsen data is pushed out every few weeks for analysts to size up, the firm's release next week of 4-week trends will be a showstopper. The huge efforts of U.S. consumers to stockpile a variety of different household and pantry products should be on full display when the report drops. Companies that are expected to see some strong numbers include Coca-Cola, Keurig Dr Pepper (NYSE:KDP), Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST), Clorox (NYSE:CLX), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB), Church & Dwight (NYSE:CHD) and Edgewell Personal Care (NYSE:EPC). Cowen thinks pantry loading by consumers in March also included the beer and other alcohol categories. That prediction could be confirmed in the Nielsen data for Constellation Brands, Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP), Craft Brew Alliance (NASDAQ:BREW), Anheuser-Busch InBev and Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.A) (NYSE:BF.B).
Macau: Macau authorities will post gross gaming revenue numbers for March sometime during the first few days of April. Analysts see March GGR falling by as much as 75% compared to a year ago as tourism remains at a standstill in the gambling mecca. An initial bounce in Macau traffic to 10K visitors a day fell back to 7K visitors by the third week of the month as global headlines worsened. Before the coronavirus outbreak, weekly tourist visits of +100K were the norm. Names to watch for another round of volatility include Wynn Macau (OTCPK:WYNMF), Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN), Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYY), Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS), MGM China (OTCPK:MCHVF), MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM), Galaxy Entertainment (OTCPK:GXYEF), SJM Holdings (OTCPK:SJMHF), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (NASDAQ:MLCO) and Studio City International (NYSE:MSC).
U.S. auto sales: Edmunds forecasts U.S. auto sales will fall 35.5% Y/Y in March to 1,044,805 new cars and trucks amid the coronavirus pandemic. "The first two months of the year started off at a healthy sales pace, but the market took a dramatic turn in mid-March as more cities and states began to implement stay-at-home policies due to the coronavirus crisis, and consumers understandably shifted their focus to other things," notes Edmunds director Jessica Caldwell. "Automakers can count on capturing some deferred demand once we get past the worst of this pandemic, but since they'll be competing with so many other companies for consumer spending at that point, they're really going to need to create incentives to spur some sales," she predicts. TrueCar sees a 42% drop to below 1M units for the month. Meanwhile, J.D. Power thinks the pandemic and economic crisis are likely to accelerate the move to online sales by auto dealerships. Edmunds March forecast by manufacturer - General Motors (NYSE:GM) -31.3% to 186K units, Ford (NYSE:F) -31.0% to 160K, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) -28.1% to 144K, Toyota (NYSE:TM) -36.2% to 137K, Honda (NYSE:HMC) -41.8% to 86K, Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) -46% to 82K, Hyundai/Kia (OTCPK:HYMLF) -31.4% to 81K, Volkswagen/Audi (OTCPK:VWAGY) -41.4% to 34K. TrueCar's March estimate for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is -23.5% to 9,939.

New video conferencing player in town: RingCentral (NYSE:RNG) is expected to launch a video product to compete with Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) next week. "In the very near term, RCMeeting will not only begin to be sold in RingCentral Office bundles across most U.S. segments, but it will also begin to replace the installed base of ZM at RNG customers," previews Rosenblatt Securities. Shares of RingCentral are up 30% over the last week, while Zoom Video is up 45% over the last four weeks.
Retail check: Retail chains that are seeing high demand for the early part of the stay-at-home spring in the U.S. are likely to continue to outperform next week and beyond, reasons Odeon Capital. The list of chains with positive sales trends includes Target (NYSE:TGT), Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE:[URL="https://email.seekingalpha.com/symbol/BJ/track?type=click&mailingid=20200329&mess ageid=wall_street_breakfast&databaseid=& serial=wall_street_breakfastO20200329.d5 ff4fe6f7fbf8c4a

[Mike Huntertz]

Dow futures show down 1%, but as you said...it bounces like crazy. With Trumps last speech I lean down?
Not my field, I'll leave it you guyz. What ya think?

now the dow over 21600 monday close is up to +213

the way futures bounce around, i think there's probably value on EITHER side at over +200 on any given day

[MinnesotaFats]

Don't be shocked if both FL and GA go on 14 to 30 day shelter in place Monday.

Many counties already are in each state.

Market going below 18k this week

[homie1975]

Don't be shocked if both FL and GA go on 14 to 30 day shelter in place Monday.

Many counties already are in each state.

Market going below 18k this week

I'm not picking on anyone just pointing out facts. Red states are intentionally being very slow to "shelter in place" and this will cost them dearly within three weeks or a month

[d2bets]

Don't be shocked if both FL and GA go on 14 to 30 day shelter in place Monday.

Many counties already are in each state.

Market going below 18k this week

17% drop this week?

[Enkhbat]

It is funny that I see last digit of AMZN closing price is odd/even bet.

[MinnesotaFats]

17% drop this week?

Where's the positive headline this week?

Unless they find a cure, the stimulus passed...that's the only money going into this economy for the next month plus.

You're looking at 30+ straight days of negative news cycles and lowered expectations for business.

[HockeyRocks]

I'm not picking on anyone just pointing out facts. Red states are intentionally being very slow to "shelter in place" and this will cost them dearly within three weeks or a month

Lets tell it the way it is. Many Red State Governors still think the Coronavirus is a "Hoax."

[MinnesotaFats]

Red states dont have the large urban populations using mass transit in the numbers they do on the coasts nor do they have airline hubs for international travel....

That's why reds aren't locking down within

[homie1975]

17% drop this week?

or maybe not. maybe we hit a bottom last Monday and there will be no re-test. it is so hard to tell. "experts" all over CNBC thinking and saying different things LOL

need to trust one's own gut

[homie1975]

Red states dont have the large urban populations using mass transit in the numbers they do on the coasts nor do they have airline hubs for international travel....

That's why reds aren't locking down within

but like you said now GA and FL might not have a choice but to lock down

[MinnesotaFats]

You're right thousands flying here from tri state and NOLA

[homie1975]

Minny
You really believe a retest is coming? we are now poised for the 4th green day in the last 5 sessions.....

[d2bets]

Where's the positive headline this week?

Unless they find a cure, the stimulus passed...that's the only money going into this economy for the next month plus.

You're looking at 30+ straight days of negative news cycles and lowered expectations for business.

I could counter with what's the negative headlines this week? We already know we're shutdown for April and we know there will be a lot of cases and deaths. Why would that not already be factored in? Something is keeping this market afloat. Maybe it's the Fed. Then again I can see though that there could be another big fall and nobody can then say they didn't have a chance to get out of the way or rebalance. This whole thing is just very hard to figure. I kinda do agree though that we may be getting to a point where reducing risk makes sense. I mean what is the floor and ceiling for the month of April? About 2,600 right now. For example, how in gods name could we possibly see 3,000 on the S&P this month. Unless we suddenly find some miracle cure. But like you say, we certainly could go back to retest 2,200. Very tough to figure.

Tomorrow is end of 1st quarter. Could that wake people up when they see statements to tell their 401k admin to sell?

[stevenash]

Dow up over 2 percent so far today.
Ditto for the S&P

Go figure, the sky isn't falling

[homie1975]

Dow up over 2 percent so far today.
Ditto for the S&P

Go figure, the sky isn't falling

as one of our Resident Experts GuitarJosh pointed out a few weeks ago, it is not uncommon at all (and I backtested it and it is actually common!) for Bear Markets to go on sharp rallies before retesting lows.

if you want to be fooled by it and start buying into it, by all means go ahead. don't be surprised when weak hands who could not get out in time on the last drop, decided to sell off after the market surges up about 5-7% higher from this point.

[stevenash]

as one of our Resident Experts GuitarJosh pointed out a few weeks ago, it is not uncommon at all (and I backtested it and it is actually common!) for Bear Markets to go on sharp rallies before retesting lows.

if you want to be fooled by it and start buying into it, by all means go ahead. don't be surprised when weak hands who could not get out in time on the last drop, decided to sell off after the market surges up about 5-7% higher from this point.

Nope.
I'm still shorting.

[homie1975]

Nope.
I'm still shorting.

ok so the sky is still falling a little in your estimation LOL

[homie1975]

appears that most of this rally might be due to 850B rebalance and we might see a different tune beginning 4/1, let's see

[stevenash]

ok so the sky is still falling a little in your estimation LOL

It'll drop off some.

[milwaukee mike]

now the dow over 21600 monday close is up to +213

the way futures bounce around, i think there's probably value on EITHER side at over +200 on any given day

hopefully someone tailed