Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[homie1975]

^ Minny
You are a smart guy, there is no doubt about it, but are you a Bear by nature and have you been this way your whole life, or are you a Bull who just sees the writing on the wall?

I ask because I have a buddy who is also sharp like you but he is a Bull through and through and continues to send me charts and this and that and the other making the case that we are at the bottom now and the recovery could very well end up being U shaped but it's coming quickly.

i am bullish by nature but always try to see both sides. i ask my buddy to consider the Bear side and I ask you to consider the Bull side.
perhaps much of what you are saying, while true, is already baked into the current prices?
what do you think of this?

[milwaukee mike]

some of these moves in a couple days have been unbelievable

penn from 3 to 15
mfa was at 32 cents yesterday (even though their upcoming dividend is 20 cents!), today $1.44
ford's preferred stock went from 10 to 18
dave and buster's went from 4 to 18

etc etc etc

[CanuckG]

some of these moves in a couple days have been unbelievable

penn from 3 to 15
mfa was at 32 cents yesterday (even though their upcoming dividend is 20 cents!), today $1.44
ford's preferred stock went from 10 to 18
dave and buster's went from 4 to 18

etc etc etc

get penn again when it goes down soon.

[milwaukee mike]

get penn again when it goes down soon.

i sold a ton of $3 april put options for an average of around 80 cents, what a gift

[d2bets]

^ Minny
You are a smart guy, there is no doubt about it, but are you a Bear by nature and have you been this way your whole life, or are you a Bull who just sees the writing on the wall?

I ask because I have a buddy who is also sharp like you but he is a Bull through and through and continues to send me charts and this and that and the other making the case that we are at the bottom now and the recovery could very well end up being U shaped but it's coming quickly.

i am bullish by nature but always try to see both sides. i ask my buddy to consider the Bear side and I ask you to consider the Bull side.
perhaps much of what you are saying, while true, is already baked into the current prices?
what do you think of this?

And we always have to distinguish between short, medium and long-term. I am really thinking there are some positives medium and long-term because this forces businesses to be nimble and more efficient aka productivity. And technology helps enable this.

Yes, there will be businesses, many, that will die off in the coming months and years. But that will leave stronger businesses standing. America should be able to shake this off and be stronger for it, although it will require the kind of socialism we're seeing now. And anytime you hear Republicans say we can't have socialism -- well then WTF is happening right now?

[homie1975]

Unemployment claims more than double the expectation but the market barely down.

This is good news.

[teecee]

And we always have to distinguish between short, medium and long-term. I am really thinking there are some positives medium and long-term because this forces businesses to be nimble and more efficient aka productivity. And technology helps enable this.

Yes, there will be businesses, many, that will die off in the coming months and years. But that will leave stronger businesses standing. America should be able to shake this off and be stronger for it, although it will require the kind of socialism we're seeing now. And anytime you hear Republicans say we can't have socialism -- well then WTF is happening right now?

Where is the government getting the money to hand out?

[MinnesotaFats]

^ Minny
You are a smart guy, there is no doubt about it, but are you a Bear by nature and have you been this way your whole life, or are you a Bull who just sees the writing on the wall?

I ask because I have a buddy who is also sharp like you but he is a Bull through and through and continues to send me charts and this and that and the other making the case that we are at the bottom now and the recovery could very well end up being U shaped but it's coming quickly.

i am bullish by nature but always try to see both sides. i ask my buddy to consider the Bear side and I ask you to consider the Bull side.
perhaps much of what you are saying, while true, is already baked into the current prices?
what do you think of this?

I'm generally a bull. But I see things from an eagles point of view because of the activity at my cash advance shops. The people have 0 money, low income, no reserves. The companies all have too much debt and are valued too high because of low interest rates around the world making bonds worthless.

It's time for a reset and we need higher rates

[Mike Huntertz]

It's called a printing press. As the worlds reserve currency the Fed gets to crank out all they want.

Where is the government getting the money to hand out?

[homie1975]

It's called a printing press. As the worlds reserve currency the Fed gets to crank out all they want.

and then we consumers get to deal with inflation and possibly even hyper inflation as the negative byproduct

[homie1975]

I'm generally a bull. But I see things from an eagles point of view because of the activity at my cash advance shops. The people have 0 money, low income, no reserves. The companies all have too much debt and are valued too high because of low interest rates around the world making bonds worthless.

It's time for a reset and we need higher rates

then at the core you probably are not believing we oversold and this current rally is simply nothing more than a leg on a W-shaped recovery?

[d2bets]

I'm generally a bull. But I see things from an eagles point of view because of the activity at my cash advance shops. The people have 0 money, low income, no reserves. The companies all have too much debt and are valued too high because of low interest rates around the world making bonds worthless.

It's time for a reset and we need higher rates

But don't you also think this will thin out inefficient companies, spark new innovation and result in businesses doing new and old things more efficiently and increasing productivity? Productivity = profits. It won't happen overnight, but look out a few years and if we get past the health crisis businesses will be stronger than ever. Most. Some businesses and even sectors will die off. But that happens. That's always happened.

[d2bets]

then at the core you probably are not believing we oversold and this current rally is simply nothing more than a leg on a W-shaped recovery?

There has to be a short-term ceiling, right? Short-term is let's say 3 months. S&P right now almost 2600. Off of the Monday lows near 2200.

[homie1975]

There has to be a short-term ceiling, right? Short-term is let's say 3 months. S&P right now almost 2600. Off of the Monday lows near 2200.

not necessarily, not if it's a V-shaped recovery. could be the start of a new bull, No?

personally i am not buying this rally, i think more downside remains, just my opinion based on gut feeling.

[Mike Huntertz]

I don't see a bull run with half the nation sitting at home. I'll sit on the side lines until some of this blows over.

not necessarily, not if it's a V-shaped recovery. could be the start of a new bull, No?

personally i am not buying this rally, i think more downside remains, just my opinion based on gut feeling.

[d2bets]

I don't see a bull run with half the nation sitting at home. I'll sit on the side lines until some of this blows over.

I agree short-term, but I think looking out 2-3 years I see possibility for massive bull with huge gains in productivity. And, it doesn't really matter if Trump or Biden is President.

[ByeShea]

Unemployment claims more than double the expectation but the market barely down.

This is good news.

The number is huge, but was already baked into the market - it also fell in line w/ expectations, btw. More than double would have been completely huge - it will continue to go up before it goes down.

[Mike Huntertz]

I like the optimism. I'm going to protect what I've got at the moment and wait and see. R&D is now on the table, Resession/Depression
Looking at shiny metals for some kind of inflationary hedge.

I agree short-term, but I think looking out 2-3 years I see possibility for massive bull with huge gains in productivity. And, it doesn't really matter if Trump or Biden is President.

[Madison]

Josher please chime in..

I believe the bad news cycle still has more left for us so I am waiting before I continue to build my positions. I don't buy on Green days. I buy on RED days

This. I have a base portfolio that I will add to on dips.

[homie1975]

I like the optimism. I'm going to protect what I've got at the moment and wait and see. R&D is now on the table, Resession/Depression
Looking at shiny metals for some kind of inflationary hedge.

Mike I wish I could zoom in on your avatar or get a name for the babe in that pic. I'm loving those legs and those curves!!

[Madison]

and then we consumers get to deal with inflation and possibly even hyper inflation as the negative byproduct

This what I've been crying about for years but it never seems to come to fruition. Printing money and no inflation, I'm confused.

[d2bets]

I like the optimism. I'm going to protect what I've got at the moment and wait and see. R&D is now on the table, Resession/Depression
Looking at shiny metals for some kind of inflationary hedge.

Sure, and maybe not 2-3 years. Maybe I'm talking 5-10 years. I just think we have the tools and knowledge to respond to this like we've never had before. And by we I mean all of humanity. Necessity is the mother of all invention, right? Well, with this sudden necessity we should see all kinds of invention.

[Madison]

Isn't the real question, that we have possibly entered a new dymanic. Will Corona calm down or possibly return? What is the next mutant that may be worse? What is the long term consequence of all this, employment that never returns? Disease that mutates on and on?

Could this be the new reality and if so, how many bullets do we have left for the next?

[d2bets]

Isn't the real question, that we have possibly entered a new dymanic. Will Corona calm down or possibly return? What is the next mutant that may be worse? What is the long term consequence of all this, employment that never returns? Disease that mutates on and on?

Could this be the new reality and if so, how many bullets do we have left for the next?

Yes, it will return. It will not go away and stay away until we have an universally available vaccine and/or perhaps a really good therapeutic.

[milwaukee mike]

Yes, it will return. It will not go away and stay away until we have an universally available vaccine and/or perhaps a really good therapeutic.

come on man

just watch event 201... all the same actors (bill gates/johns hopkins/un/vaccine mfg)

create a problem and then be the savior, same script over and over throughout history

[Madison]

come on man

just watch event 201... all the same actors (bill gates/johns hopkins/un/vaccine mfg)

create a problem and then be the savior, same script over and over throughout history

MM, I usually respect your input, but I'm concerned about your opinion here. The dynamic from years ago to today seems like a diminishing return to me. Can anyone argue that we are behind the curve fighting this one, and what might be coming beyond?

The supposedly greatest economy on earth is struggling to provide protective gear and more concerning protect our health care professionals.

Personally, I'm concerned this is the proverbial elephant in the closet.

[milwaukee mike]

MM, I usually respect your input, but I'm concerned about your opinion here. The dynamic from years ago to today seems like a diminishing return to me. Can anyone argue that we are behind the curve fighting this one, and what might be coming beyond?

The supposedly greatest economy on earth is struggling to provide protective gear and more concerning protect our health care professionals.

Personally, I'm concerned this is the proverbial elephant in the closet.

just be open to the possibility that this is all a game

if i died today, whether it was from pneumonia or getting hit by a truck, it would probably be reported that i died of corona virus

wouldn't it be quite the weird coincidence to have an international exercise based on a coronavirus wiping out economies and creating travel bans and lockdowns... and then have that same coronavirus magically pop up a month later? and have the exact same people that were at the conference giving pandemic stats, give us those stats now?

[milwaukee mike]

here's a blast-from-the-past reminder on how governments like to scare their population

after 9/11 all these terrorists were gonna blow up our apartments, bridges, subways, etc so we were told just how afraid to be at any given time... (and guess what, it was always orange or red!)... what a load of bullshit, it was still orange in 2011 when they finally did away with it

[Mike Huntertz]

You and me both!

This what I've been crying about for years but it never seems to come to fruition. Printing money and no inflation, I'm confused.

[Mike Huntertz]

She's busy treating Corona patients.

Mike I wish I could zoom in on your avatar or get a name for the babe in that pic. I'm loving those legs and those curves!!

[Madison]

just be open to the possibility that this is all a game

if i died today, whether it was from pneumonia or getting hit by a truck, it would probably be reported that i died of corona virus

wouldn't it be quite the weird coincidence to have an international exercise based on a coronavirus wiping out economies and creating travel bans and lockdowns... and then have that same coronavirus magically pop up a month later? and have the exact same people that were at the conference giving pandemic stats, give us those stats now?

You are speaking with possibly the world's foremost conspirancy theorist.

[MinnesotaFats]

But don't you also think this will thin out inefficient companies, spark new innovation and result in businesses doing new and old things more efficiently and increasing productivity? Productivity = profits. It won't happen overnight, but look out a few years and if we get past the health crisis businesses will be stronger than ever. Most. Some businesses and even sectors will die off. But that happens. That's always happened.

This is a V right now with a big down coming. It's makes 0 mathematical sense to have 0 interest, record high unemployment, every major metropolitan area at a 2 month standstill, the Fed printing basically 15% of our total PRE CORONA GDP ($2 trillion might equal 30% of post Corona) and to buy anything. Wall Street is broken. The corporate dividends for non bailout companies will be slashed next qtr if not cut completely, that'll sink them. Any company getting a bailout or loan can't buy back their stock, that's stagnating, the unemployment benefits encourage companies to layoff more workers and IF this drives technology into logistics and loading and say restaraunts then you're looking at more low skilled workers not getting work or working for less.

My theory on society is that any society, no matter how great, will collapse or face economic ruin trying to lift the bottom 10%. If the bottom 10% can't keep up, then they'll vote for leaders who pay them not to work and then it's over boys...that's socialism via wealth redistribution on steroids.

There are some cases where government mandated inefficiencies are beneficial. I'll vote the 3 tier system in beer. It's a lot easier for the brewery to direct ship to your home via FedEx but instead we have a middle man and a retailer. Both are tax collection vehicles for the state, both create hundreds of thousands of jobs in this Country. Without the 3 tier system the US Beer industry could shed 215,000 workers and cut over $8 billion in costs (labor, trucking, energy, etc).

I'm very concerned after this shutdown we may only have a few retailers left. Amazon, Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowes. What's the point of Main Street? What's the point of the family hardware store, the locally owned diner, the local liquor store, etc if a government mandated shutdown kills them or their families finances and only the big companies have access to the bailout loans.

The airlines and cruises are worthless business but no executive will have to cosign a guarantee here. But the small business owner, yeah hes going to have to cross collateraluze everything.

This is going to be worse than 08/09 in a few months because that bottom 10%....those 30million people who have 0 money and 0 savings and 0 job and arent likely to get rehired....they're going to default on what they have. Leases, cars, rent to own furniture, sub prime mortgages, etc. It's going to be really bad.

[Mike Huntertz]

Lucid and well written, a lot rings true.

This is a V right now with a big down coming. It's makes 0 mathematical sense to have 0 interest, record high unemployment, every major metropolitan area at a 2 month standstill, the Fed printing basically 15% of our total PRE CORONA GDP ($2 trillion might equal 30% of post Corona) and to buy anything. Wall Street is broken. The corporate dividends for non bailout companies will be slashed next qtr if not cut completely, that'll sink them. Any company getting a bailout or loan can't buy back their stock, that's stagnating, the unemployment benefits encourage companies to layoff more workers and IF this drives technology into logistics and loading and say restaraunts then you're looking at more low skilled workers not getting work or working for less.

My theory on society is that any society, no matter how great, will collapse or face economic ruin trying to lift the bottom 10%. If the bottom 10% can't keep up, then they'll vote for leaders who pay them not to work and then it's over boys...that's socialism via wealth redistribution on steroids.

There are some cases where government mandated inefficiencies are beneficial. I'll vote the 3 tier system in beer. It's a lot easier for the brewery to direct ship to your home via FedEx but instead we have a middle man and a retailer. Both are tax collection vehicles for the state, both create hundreds of thousands of jobs in this Country. Without the 3 tier system the US Beer industry could shed 215,000 workers and cut over $8 billion in costs (labor, trucking, energy, etc).

I'm very concerned after this shutdown we may only have a few retailers left. Amazon, Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowes. What's the point of Main Street? What's the point of the family hardware store, the locally owned diner, the local liquor store, etc if a government mandated shutdown kills them or their families finances and only the big companies have access to the bailout loans.

The airlines and cruises are worthless business but no executive will have to cosign a guarantee here. But the small business owner, yeah hes going to have to cross collateraluze everything.

This is going to be worse than 08/09 in a few months because that bottom 10%....those 30million people who have 0 money and 0 savings and 0 job and arent likely to get rehired....they're going to default on what they have. Leases, cars, rent to own furniture, sub prime mortgages, etc. It's going to be really bad.

[Shafted69]

The Chuck & Nancy rally continues !!! Don't fight the feds !!!

[milwaukee mike]

huge disparity in hotel/real estate preferred stocks right now

bhr-b (still paying dividend, high quality, good balance sheet, ritz carltons/etc) trading at 6.48
ht-c (not paying dividend, low quality, worse balance sheet) trading at 7.94

granted both are possibly worth 25 but there's a lot of good stuff trading like it's worse than the trash right now

some of these super high-quality preferreds like public storage did a quick v... psa-g went from 26 to 18 and back to 26 in a blink!

cdr-b went from 25 down to 6, back up to 14... fantastic balance sheet, and almost all of their property is GROCERY STORES, which people didn't realize when they ran it down to 6. i can't imagine a scenario where that isn't worth 25