Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

d2bets · 04-08-20, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

Now in Red !!

Who knows what happens tomorrow, but my guess is we'll see some green in the morning followed by a steady selloff in the afternoon. I'm looking for about 2,775.

homie1975 · 04-08-20, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Who knows what happens tomorrow, but my guess is we'll see some green in the morning followed by a steady selloff in the afternoon.

That's what I thought would happen today !!!

keely85 · 04-08-20, 10:00 PM

So let’s say the virus is gonna fluctuate through June. When are good times to jump on board? Or is it specific to different markets. (I’m a stock noob)

Shafted69 · 04-08-20, 10:12 PM

The bigger the weekly jobs claims number the bigger the rally. Up is down and down is up. You're living in the twilight zone right now.

homie1975 · 04-08-20, 11:28 PM

^ feels that way.

homie1975 · 04-09-20, 07:38 AM

New jobless claims 6.6MM

at same time fed reserve announces 2.3B stimulus for households and local counties

Shafted69 · 04-09-20, 07:47 AM

well folks there you have it. S&P 500 will double today to 5,000. worst than expected weekly claims. lol

Emily_Haines · 04-09-20, 07:50 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

New jobless claims 6.6MM

at same time fed reserve announces 2.3B stimulus for households and local counties

-winning-

MinnesotaFats · 04-09-20, 08:20 AM

20mm unemployed by end of April

homie1975 · 04-09-20, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by Emily_Haines

-winning-

Chill. We weren't winning between feb 19 and march 23. There is a long way to go in the fight against this virus.

milwaukee mike · 04-09-20, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Futures up again.

I'm likely going to finally sell a big block of my SPY tomorrow morning.

not the worst timing on s&p... but some of these smaller stocks have a ton more room to run

just today again...

penn +8%
mik +11%
home +20%
ryi +6%
kss +12%

this has been unreal

milwaukee mike · 04-09-20, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

Chill. We weren't winning between feb 19 and march 23. There is a long way to go in the fight against this virus.

you think the federal reserve buying up the water supply of all these municipalities has anything to do with the virus? come on man

the government/media have ONE JOB... break your legs, then give you a crutch and say "see without us you couldn't walk!"

d2bets · 04-09-20, 08:41 AM

Market now higher than it was late May 2019.

d2bets · 04-09-20, 08:42 AM

Officially sold at 2799.

milwaukee mike · 04-09-20, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

seems like it in a lot of the beaten down stuff

either penn is worth $25 or $0... pretty clear at this point it's $25, so why is the stock still at 12?

still some huge bargains out there... bhr-b is worth $25 and it's sitting at 6... as long as the world doesn't come to an end you probably quadruple your money, the lake tahoe ritz carlton is still worth something as condos if nobody ever travels again

what a great call by me

penn up 24% since that mention yesterday
bhr-b up 40% since that mention yesterday!

d2bets · 04-09-20, 09:08 AM

Does anyone really think this rally persists to the close?

homie1975 · 04-09-20, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Does anyone really think this rally persists to the close?

Who knows. Sharp ppl thought this would be a blood red week in the market but they were completely wrong. So wrong it was unbelievable lol

krk1030 · 04-09-20, 09:29 AM

Huge rally in casino stocks yet total pessimism over sports coming back.

Doesn't add up

Enkhbat · 04-09-20, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Officially sold at 2799.

Damn dude, it is at 2832 right now, just keeps going up

milwaukee mike · 04-09-20, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by krk1030

Huge rally in casino stocks yet total pessimism over sports coming back.

Doesn't add up

if you wait to buy until the news is totally good, you are always way too late

the amount of opportunities on a daily basis is downright staggering... last night nordstrom issued 8.75% bonds... hmm 0.7% in a 10-year treasury or 8.75% on nordstrom, who has less of a chance of going bankrupt than the us govt

Iona · 04-09-20, 12:29 PM

Have not read the entire thread, so if this has been discussed I am sorry.

Want to short the market broadly, but SPY, DIA, and QQQ are all deemed "Hard to Borrow" at Schwab. How is this possible ?

milwaukee mike · 04-09-20, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by Iona

Have not read the entire thread, so if this has been discussed I am sorry.

Want to short the market broadly, but SPY, DIA, and QQQ are all deemed "Hard to Borrow" at Schwab. How is this possible ?

why wouldn't you just buy out-of-the-money puts instead? more bang for your buck, less downside risk, etc

Slurry Pumper · 04-09-20, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by Iona

Have not read the entire thread, so if this has been discussed I am sorry.

Want to short the market broadly, but SPY, DIA, and QQQ are all deemed "Hard to Borrow" at Schwab. How is this possible ?

Try DXD it is a ultra short fund.

I'm selling several short term positions going into the close. Looking at the volume, the rally looks like it is petering out.

Iona · 04-09-20, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

why wouldn't you just buy out-of-the-money puts instead? more bang for your buck, less downside risk, etc

Would rather sell calls; I generally like to take in these generous premiums in. If the call expires in the money a short position is established.

Anyway, I just don't understand why SPY is hard to borrow. I have never seen this before.

Iona · 04-09-20, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

Try DXD it is a ultra short fund.

I'm selling several short term positions going into the close. Looking at the volume, the rally looks like it is petering out.

Thanks Slurry; I will check it out !

Iona · 04-09-20, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

Try DXD it is a ultra short fund.

I'm selling several short term positions going into the close. Looking at the volume, the rally looks like it is petering out.

Agreed, it looks over done. Full disclosure - I am often wrong.

milwaukee mike · 04-09-20, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by Iona

Would rather sell calls; I generally like to take in these generous premiums in. If the call expires in the money a short position is established.

Anyway, I just don't understand why SPY is hard to borrow. I have never seen this before.

yeah totally agree, over the past few weeks selling puts has been really good to me, some of these premiums on calls/puts are totally unreal... i still remember selling some $3 puts on penn (that were a month out) for .80 when the stock was at 7 lol

Iona · 04-09-20, 01:47 PM

Milwaukee Mike, I am a HUGE believer in pocketing option premiums. And, with the VIX still elevated we are getting paid well. Delighted you are making money selling Puts. However, IMHO, we are going lower. Just my 2 cents. Hate to see you Put a hard to borrow equity :-)

At Schwab, at the moment, almost everything is designated "Hard to Borrow" which, IMHO, is BS.

Just wondering if TD, ETrade, Interactive and the rest of the retail houses are doing the same. Like I said earlier, I have never seen this.

Iona · 04-09-20, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

yeah totally agree, over the past few weeks selling puts has been really good to me, some of these premiums on calls/puts are totally unreal... i still remember selling some $3 puts on penn (that were a month out) for .80 when the stock was at 7 lol

I am an ETF guy; I have a feeling I am much older than you. Anyway, a .80 premium on a PUT at three (3) while the equity is at seven (7) is unheard of. Possible the trade of a life time. Glad you cashed !

More importantly - stay healthy.

d2bets · 04-09-20, 02:01 PM

Predictable afternoon selloff. Will it even end green?

homie1975 · 04-09-20, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Predictable afternoon selloff. Will it even end green?

Looks like ppl dont wana hold the next 3 days on potential bad news but with what's been going on lately I wasn't going to bet on anything.

milwaukee mike · 04-09-20, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by Iona

[/B]

I am an ETF guy; I have a feeling I am much older than you. Anyway, a .80 premium on a PUT at three (3) while the equity is at seven (7) is unheard of. Possible the trade of a life time. Glad you cashed !

More importantly - stay healthy.

thanks iona, right back atcha... yeah i know these premiums have been absolutely unbelievable... i've been trading stocks for 25 years so you might not be much older! and i've never seen anything like it.

even now that things are more stable, stuff like PLAY, stock is at 14.25 and the 7.50 puts a month out are going for .65

PENN, stock is at 13.60 and the $7 puts a month out are .70

d2bets · 04-09-20, 02:50 PM

Last 10 minutes will be interesting...

homie1975 · 04-09-20, 03:01 PM

this 13 day rally since Mon 3/23 has some real teeth. i am very surprised. i have to trust my gut though and it agrees with Mark Cuban. this *feels like* buying on the rumor and selling on the news or "buying on what feels like good news after so much bad..". i still expect significant downside over the course of the next 3-4 mos and we retest the March 23 lows or we get very close.

FOMO, Algos, short-squeezes, buybacks, all things things and then some which can fuel a mini bull in a bear run. i am not buying it (literally not buying it)

any and all retorts welcome because i like to hear all sides, but please reply with more than political opinions and pom poms. give us some meat as to why you believe......

Iona · 04-09-20, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

this 13 day rally since Mon 3/23 has some real teeth. i am very surprised. i have to trust my gut though and it agrees with Mark Cuban. this is buying on the rumor and selling on the news. i still expect significant downside over the course of the next 3-4 mos and we retest the March 23 lows or we get very close.

FOMO, Algos, short-squeezes, buybacks, all things things and then some which can fuel a mini bull in a bear run. i am not buying it (literally not buying it)

any and all retorts welcome because i like to hear all sides, but please reply with more than political opinions and pom poms. give us some meat as to why you believe......

I agree 100% - Equities up. Bonds up. Gold up. It makes no sense.

IMHO, we have a leg down coming.

"Beware of the irrational, no mater how appealing it may be."