Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[homie1975]

I thought we might be goin on a run, but it looks like a bad day.

when people i know who don't in my social circle beginning following the market all of a sudden like they did late last week and this past monday, it tells me that stocks are running too good. i had a feeling the rug might be coming out very soon. when average Joe's get FOMO, the market makers and money managers typically start taking some profit off the table LOL

[homie1975]

I thought we might be goin on a run, but it looks like a bad day.

the run started on tue 3/24 so we were definitely on one the last 3 weeks.

[milwaukee mike]

That's how they get you thinking. There was a run, it's over. Sell now if you're holding.

and do what with the money? buy a 10-year treasury for 0.6%

[milwaukee mike]

chk did a 1-200 reverse split??!!

reminds me of when moviepass (hmny) did something similar and then went right back down to 0 again

[HockeyRocks]

Great day to add a little more to: INTC, BA, HD, SBUX, SQ and SUN.

[d2bets]

and do what with the money? buy a 10-year treasury for 0.6%

Just wait for a better re-entry point in a few weeks. Or go short.

[homie1975]

Just wait for a better re-entry point in a few weeks. Or go short.

100% agree. Patience is so key in the market, which is something WE sports bettors do not typically have LOLOL

[allabout the $$$]

Wtf is this ltrpb up over 1500% today

[milwaukee mike]

Just wait for a better re-entry point in a few weeks. Or go short.

that's downright silly if you have a taxable gain on something

bhr-b up another 20% today

timing the market is good when you're buying fear, not so much when you're selling a rally... i mean what is the potential gain 10%? and in the meantime if it keeps going up you never get back in

[Madison]

There's going to be tension with various businesses telling employees to get their assees back to work and some employees saying it's not safe enough. Imagine if employees voice concerns, the business opens back up, and there's an outbreak at the factory leading to illnesses and deaths. What's the liability?

My wife is furloughed and let's call her mature. She meets face to face with people in close proximity. Even if they lift the furlough who decides the personal risk if she decides it's not safe to return. Weird times.

[rake922]

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/15/forget-amazon-roku-is-a-better-growth-stock.aspx

Roku is going to 140 easily by summer

[Shafted69]

The FED plunger protection team at it again

[Madison]

Bank reserves for expected bad debt (mortgages)

Check out current. If unemployment keeps rising/persists there is opportunity here. Not quite sure how to exploit it or how long the GOV can prop but it's coming.

I made a lot of $$ in 08/09 shoring banks on failing debt, CDO etc.

Any thoughts?

[homie1975]

that's downright silly if you have a taxable gain on something

bhr-b up another 20% today

timing the market is good when you're buying fear, not so much when you're selling a rally... i mean what is the potential gain 10%? and in the meantime if it keeps going up you never get back in

less than 5% up now WTF happened ??

[milwaukee mike]

less than 5% up now WTF happened ??

a little volume really swings it

the b went from 3 to 11, a little profit taking by someone perhaps... the d went from 5 to 18, same thing today

the deal with those preferreds, they're still paying dividends unlike many hotels, and they are high quality... the common has about 2 billion in assets with about 1.2 billion in debt... if those hotels are still worth 1.3 billion then the debt and preferreds get paid in full.

yes the ritz carlton in lake tahoe is worth less than it was 2 months ago, but is it worth 40% less? time will tell but i say NO

[Madison]

Bank reserves

The second-biggest lender
after JPMorgan Chase posted provisions for credit losses of $4.8 billion, even
more than some of its counterparts, as the coronavirus pandemic shuttered the
U.S. economy and pummeled stock and bond markets.
Wells Fargo set aside
some $4 billion in loan-loss provisions in the first quarter related to the
Covid-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout, almost five times what it
allocated a year ago and the most in a decade, leading to a near-90% drop in
net income.

[milwaukee mike]

The second-biggest lender
after JPMorgan Chase posted provisions for credit losses of $4.8 billion, even
more than some of its counterparts, as the coronavirus pandemic shuttered the
U.S. economy and pummeled stock and bond markets.
Wells Fargo set aside
some $4 billion in loan-loss provisions in the first quarter related to the
Covid-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout, almost five times what it
allocated a year ago and the most in a decade, leading to a near-90% drop in
net income.

it's a couple throw away quarters or a throw away year for many companies... does that mean their stock is worth 10% less? or 40% less? if i'm buying a stock for 30 years worth of income/dividends then throwing away 1 year of that would make the stock worth 3% less, and yet so many of these retail/hotel/restaurant/etc stocks got beaten down 80%+.

in many cases, i would argue that the ones left standing are worth MORE now than they were a year ago... one hotel closing in lake tahoe should at some point make the others worth more $ if the demand ever gets back close to 100%, because some of the supply is taken away and never comes back

[d2bets]

it's a couple throw away quarters or a throw away year for many companies... does that mean their stock is worth 10% less? or 40% less? if i'm buying a stock for 30 years worth of income/dividends then throwing away 1 year of that would make the stock worth 3% less, and yet so many of these retail/hotel/restaurant/etc stocks got beaten down 80%+.

in many cases, i would argue that the ones left standing are worth MORE now than they were a year ago... one hotel closing in lake tahoe should at some point make the others worth more $ if the demand ever gets back close to 100%, because some of the supply is taken away and never comes back

Yeah, if they make it through to the other side, but at the same time the future of hotels and entertainment may seriously be "permanently" altered in previously unimaginable ways. I'm not saying you're wrong about the stock prices, but to say it's just 1 bad year and then business as usual may be underselling this shift.

[d2bets]

Tomorrow could get ugly. Closed 2,783 but this level is not going to hold. If 2,730 doesn't hold, it's likely to plunge to at least the 2,630 level pretty quick. If not tomorrow then Friday.

[ThaTopMoron]

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...wth-stock.aspx

Roku is going to 140 easily by summer

yes
why u think i was talking about how i grabbed up ROKU stock when it was under $70 last month.... EASY MONEY

it's not too late fellas...

[MinnesotaFats]

it's a couple throw away quarters or a throw away year for many companies... does that mean their stock is worth 10% less? or 40% less? if i'm buying a stock for 30 years worth of income/dividends then throwing away 1 year of that would make the stock worth 3% less, and yet so many of these retail/hotel/restaurant/etc stocks got beaten down 80%+.

in many cases, i would argue that the ones left standing are worth MORE now than they were a year ago... one hotel closing in lake tahoe should at some point make the others worth more $ if the demand ever gets back close to 100%, because some of the supply is taken away and never comes back

I think we're seeing a generational shift in the US economy as the millennial doesn't have any money or aspirations to be conventional.

Everything is internet based now. Even shopping at WalMart is going to be call ahead ordering for P/U.

Hotels outside of large convention hosts are dead as air BnB and other gig sites take over.

Car buying is dead. Leases, uber, mass transit are in.

Home buying in the burbs is dead.

Travel and moderate luxuries will bounce back but you need to bet on the disruptor not the old stand bys.

Kiss the traditional banks goodbye. Find financial sector disruptors like acorns or things like that that appeal to 35 yr old bartenders, single moms and broke dads.

We're going to see a whole new economy after this. Main street is dead. Things that are online or cater to millennials self importance and gratification will win out.

[d2bets]

I think we're seeing a generational shift in the US economy as the millennial doesn't have any money or aspirations to be conventional.

Everything is internet based now. Even shopping at WalMart is going to be call ahead ordering for P/U.

Hotels outside of large convention hosts are dead as air BnB and other gig sites take over.

Car buying is dead. Leases, uber, mass transit are in.

Home buying in the burbs is dead.

Travel and moderate luxuries will bounce back but you need to bet on the disruptor not the old stand bys.

Kiss the traditional banks goodbye. Find financial sector disruptors like acorns or things like that that appeal to 35 yr old bartenders, single moms and broke dads.

We're going to see a whole new economy after this. Main street is dead. Things that are online or cater to millennials self importance and gratification will win out.

Uber and mass transit are in? Really? They're dead for quite awhile.

Home buying in the burbs may be dead (although I disagree in the medium-term), but I sure don't regret buying a nice big house in the burbs not long ago. If you gotta spend a lot more time at home and have to workout at home, teach your kids, and do remote work, having a nice big house with everything over a tiny apt is sure nice.

Online is definitely in. No doubt about that.

Millenials are not everything. Us Gen-X'ers still have a say here.

[homie1975]

I think we're seeing a generational shift in the US economy as the millennial doesn't have any money or aspirations to be conventional.

Everything is internet based now. Even shopping at WalMart is going to be call ahead ordering for P/U.

Hotels outside of large convention hosts are dead as air BnB and other gig sites take over.

Car buying is dead. Leases, uber, mass transit are in.

Home buying in the burbs is dead.

Travel and moderate luxuries will bounce back but you need to bet on the disruptor not the old stand bys.

Kiss the traditional banks goodbye. Find financial sector disruptors like acorns or things like that that appeal to 35 yr old bartenders, single moms and broke dads.

We're going to see a whole new economy after this. Main street is dead. Things that are online or cater to millennials self importance and gratification will win out.

Minny
Great post. As you know we were already headed this way as a society. COVID-19 just expedited it.

[MinnesotaFats]

25mm newly unemployed now (as was my prediction early March) and futures look up?

JP Morgan hints at August reopening...and futures are up?

WTF is this, twilight zone....

I swear to god this eariely reminds me of Goldman Sachs bidding up CDS & CDOs and then betting against them... like the US lay investor being set up for an institutional and insider stock dump.

[d2bets]

25mm newly unemployed now (as was my prediction early March) and futures look up?

JP Morgan hints at August reopening...and futures are up?

WTF is this, twilight zone....

I swear to god this eariely reminds me of Goldman Sachs bidding up CDS & CDOs and then betting against them... like the US lay investor being set up for an institutional and insider stock dump.

Sellers are taking over now.

Well at least at this point nobody can say that they were blindsided and didn't have a chance to get out. Those that can't handle the risk have now had ample time to get on the sidelines. If the market plunges from here nobody should complain.

I believe sentiment has turned back and we are going to see a fairly rapid decline for the rest of April. And notice the massive dichotomy between the NASDAQ and the rest of the market. I said this from the start. Big tech will flourish.

[Shafted69]

Slow walking the dog market down.

[homie1975]

Ok Boys I am soliciting your assistance. I am an ETF guy and I already own enough QQQ, TQQQ, SOXX, and SPXL.

I typically avoid Individual Stocks but I believe I have no choice but to look for opportunities in the next several weeks.

Outside of the usual FANG and WATCH (acronym) stocks, what companies do you guys believe are worth a hard look at holding for 3-4 years?

I like beat up ETF's, so it is only natural that I would like beat up companies. I am Not going to buy TSLA, AMZN, or NFLX type companies at these levels.

I want companies with lots of upside the next 3-4 years.

My list so far:

BA (boeing)
DIS (disney)
DAL (delta)
LUV (southwest)
JPM (chase)
GS (goldman sachs)
MGM
LVS (las vegas sands)


What else should I be looking at right now and over the next several weeks heading into the end of May and early June ??


Thank you in advance !!!

[Enkhbat]

I am looking at TK, FRO, ERI and WYNN. TK and FRO as near term (up to 6 months) investments and ERI and WYNN as 3-4 year as you mentioned.

What beat up ETFs do you like?

[homie1975]

I am looking at TK, FRO, ERI and WYNN. TK and FRO as near term (up to 6 months) investments and ERI and WYNN as 3-4 year as you mentioned.

What beat up ETFs do you like?

my tech ETFs have all come back a decent amount, they are QQQ, TQQQ and SOXX. I also like SOXL and TECL which you can still get at decent prices although tech has remained very strong.

want a beaten up S&P leveraged ETF that is over 55% off the recent ATH? look at SPXL. popular and well managed ETF

[Iona]

Tesla opens Monday around 580.

Shortly thereafter they announce that they will not be paying their rent.

Three days later the stock is trading at 740.

What am I missing ????

[d2bets]

Ok Boys I am soliciting your assistance. I am an ETF guy and I already own enough QQQ, TQQQ, SOXX, and SPXL.

I typically avoid Individual Stocks but I believe I have no choice but to look for opportunities in the next several weeks.

Outside of the usual FANG and WATCH (acronym) stocks, what companies do you guys believe are worth a hard look at holding for 3-4 years?

I like beat up ETF's, so it is only natural that I would like beat up companies. I am Not going to buy TSLA, AMZN, or NFLX type companies at these levels.

I want companies with lots of upside the next 3-4 years.

My list so far:

BA (boeing)
DIS (disney)
DAL (delta)
LUV (southwest)
JPM (chase)
GS (goldman sachs)
MGM
LVS (las vegas sands)


What else should I be looking at right now and over the next several weeks heading into the end of May and early June ??


Thank you in advance !!!

NVDA
Although that may fall into the tech category that has rallied that you don't want. But just look to add on any pullback. You have to own this for the next 3-4 years.

[homie1975]

NVDA
Although that may fall into the tech category that has rallied that you don't want. But just look to add on any pullback. You have to own this for the next 3-4 years.

D-er
I know you love NVDA and jensen wong. i do too. i own them in SOXX as a major holding. they are only 8% off the ATH.

where do you see them in 3-4 years price wise? why are you so bullish on them vs other chip heavyweights?

thanks!

[chico2663]

chk did a 1-200 reverse split??!!

reminds me of when moviepass (hmny) did something similar and then went right back down to 0 again

I lost my ass on chk when I first started trading. This is 3rd time for r/s for chk,

[chico2663]

D-er
I know you love NVDA and jensen wong. i do too. i own them in SOXX as a major holding. they are only 8% off the ATH.

where do you see them in 3-4 years price wise? why are you so bullish on them vs other chip heavyweights?

thanks!

I like swks. Make apples chips

[homie1975]

I like swks. Make apples chips

for trading yes, for LT hold probably not. may as well be leveraged, it is so volatile.