Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Iona]

this 13 day rally since Mon 3/23 has some real teeth. i am very surprised. i have to trust my gut though and it agrees with Mark Cuban. this *feels like* buying on the rumor and selling on the news or "buying on what feels like good news after so much bad..". i still expect significant downside over the course of the next 3-4 mos and we retest the March 23 lows or we get very close.

FOMO, Algos, short-squeezes, buybacks, all things things and then some which can fuel a mini bull in a bear run. i am not buying it (literally not buying it)

any and all retorts welcome because i like to hear all sides, but please reply with more than political opinions and pom poms. give us some meat as to why you believe......

If you're asking for the Bull case - "The trend is your friend."

[d2bets]

this 13 day rally since Mon 3/23 has some real teeth. i am very surprised. i have to trust my gut though and it agrees with Mark Cuban. this is buying on the rumor and selling on the news. i still expect significant downside over the course of the next 3-4 mos and we retest the March 23 lows or we get very close.

FOMO, Algos, short-squeezes, buybacks, all things things and then some which can fuel a mini bull in a bear run. i am not buying it (literally not buying it)

any and all retorts welcome because i like to hear all sides, but please reply with more than political opinions and pom poms. give us some meat as to why you believe......

All logic and history supports a drop and retest of the lows. But then again, who the hell knows. I do believe that the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support flooding the economy with cash, the somewhat temporary nature of the situation, and the innovation and productivity measure implemented to combat will ultimately result in good numbers looking out a couple years and more. It's amazing of the market is truly able to see that far this early. Maybe. I still agree with you and it's more likely to fall and retest. We are not full returning to normal any time soon. Things may be open up somewhat in June, but many things won't and we will still have the overhang of a 2nd and 3rd wave of this.

[d2bets]

If you're asking for the Bull case - "The trend is your friend."

Until it isn't.

[homie1975]

If you're asking for the Bull case - "The trend is your friend."

Yes that is the Bull Thesis. no doubt, plus "A Bull Market climbs the Wall of Worry".

Well, there is a lot of worry ahead that is for sure !!

[homie1975]

The fact that so many people feel a another drop and retest, is actually scaring the hell out of me. I worry a lot when too many people (especially the big guys) are all saying the same thing, but i cannot get myself to buy at these levels when i bought so much in feb and march on the way down.

[d2bets]

The fact that so many people feel a another drop and retest, is actually scaring the hell out of me. I worry a lot when too many people (especially the big guys) are all saying the same thing, but i cannot get myself to buy at these levels when i bought so much in feb and march on the way down.

I just find it amazing that the market right now is ahead of where it was at the end of May 2019. How can the outlook be better now than it was then?

[milwaukee mike]

I agree 100% - Equities up. Bonds up. Gold up. It makes no sense.

IMHO, we have a leg down coming.

"Beware of the irrational, no mater how appealing it may be."

the other quote i like is "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

market as a whole might go retest the lows, but i doubt it... and i can't really picture a scenario where individual stocks like kss/mcs/penn/play just go down 50-75% and retest their lows.

unless it's the end of the world, and in that case what difference does it make what you're holding? the guys that predict the end of the world, they can predict it 100 times (and they usually do) but they can only be right once!

[milwaukee mike]

I just find it amazing that the market right now is ahead of where it was at the end of May 2019. How can the outlook be better now than it was then?

interest rates are lower, so even a 2% dividend looks much more appealing than a 0.7% 10-year treasury bond

and by the market you mean s&p 500 or dow... the bigger companies are in better shape than a year ago because a lot of their competition will disappear... i would argue that costco/walmart/amazon/apple/mcdonalds/p&g/j&j/microsoft/etc are better off now than they were a year ago

[Iona]

All logic and history supports a drop and retest of the lows. But then again, who the hell knows. I do believe that the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support flooding the economy with cash, the somewhat temporary nature of the situation, and the innovation and productivity measure implemented to combat will ultimately result in good numbers looking out a couple years and more. It's amazing of the market is truly able to see that far this early. Maybe. I still agree with you and it's more likely to fall and retest. We are not full returning to normal any time soon. Things may be open up somewhat in June, but many things won't and we will still have the overhang of a 2nd and 3rd wave of this.

All excellent points. Who know what will happen - I surly don't.

The news flow recently has been generally positive (infections down, projected deaths lowered, sports perhaps resuming in June).

However, when/ if normalcy resumes will we - and the rest of the world - be looking for reparations from China ? Or at the very least confessions on trade ? This could end badly.

Full disclosure: I am net long ( IRA, 401k etc..) but short SPY on a short term trade (I hope).

[Iona]

[QUOTE=milwaukee mike;29377072]the other quote i like is "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

[Iona]

[QUOTE=Iona;29377121]

the other quote i like is "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

My Dad would say, "You can go broke being right".

Almost happened to me shorting Starbucks.

[milwaukee mike]

[QUOTE=Iona;29377127]

My Dad would say, "You can go broke being right".

Almost happened to me shorting Starbucks.

back in late 2001 my net worth went from over 300k positive, to actually turning negative

i was begging, borrowing, and stealing to avoid margin calls on a daily basis... thank god some of my casino stocks turned around

[Iona]

[QUOTE=milwaukee mike;29377138]

back in late 2001 my net worth went from over 300k positive, to actually turning negative

i was begging, borrowing, and stealing to avoid margin calls on a daily basis... thank god some of my casino stocks turned around

I don't trade on Margin.

A good book for you Milwaukee - " When Genius Failed". It's about LTCM; they were right, but could not stay in their trades because they were leveraged 25-1.

[homie1975]

the other quote i like is "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

market as a whole might go retest the lows, but i doubt it... and i can't really picture a scenario where individual stocks like kss/mcs/penn/play just go down 50-75% and retest their lows.

unless it's the end of the world, and in that case what difference does it make what you're holding? the guys that predict the end of the world, they can predict it 100 times (and they usually do) but they can only be right once!

Mike what was your opinion on this in 1987 and 2008 ? In terms of lows and retests. Were you this bullish back then?

[milwaukee mike]

Mike what was your opinion on this in 1987 and 2008 ? In terms of lows and retests. Were you this bullish back then?

yeah ON INDIVIDUAL STOCKS because back in 2008/2009 i was trading stuff like dollar/thrifty car rental (got down under a dollar!), milwaukee journal (got down to .50), etc

once a stock like that goes from 15 down to .50 and back up to $3 it's not going back down to .50

dollar thrifty went from .70 in 2009 to getting bought out in 2012 for $87.50... so the people skeptical of buying it at $5 when it bounced up from 0.70 missed a huge opportunity up to 87.

you're seeing the same thing here... does being closed for a few months really make dave and buster's worth 90% less? no way

[milwaukee mike]

[QUOTE=Iona;29377145]

I don't trade on Margin.

A good book for you Milwaukee - " When Genius Failed". It's about LTCM; they were right, but could not stay in their trades because they were leveraged 25-1.

i'll check that out, thanks

yeah i was totally right that travel/casinos would bounce back big time after the fearmongering of terrorism died off after 9/11... almost didn't stay solvent long enough to be proven right though.

this time it's a bit different with business travel staying in the toilet longer, but same basic premise

[homie1975]

Warren Buffett 30M dump. Prepping for crash?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ccn.com/30-million-stock-dump-proves-warren-buffett-is-bracing-for-a-market-crash/

[Slurry Pumper]

I think the rally is sputtering out. The last couple of sessions we had a gap up open but not really any follow through. In the big picture I think the market movers moved the stock up just to combat the next few weeks of earnings. Is the market really going to continue to rise in the face of bad news and bad earnings? I think not, I have never seen an overall market rally on bad earnings across the board. Earnings is where the rubber hits the road and I predict they scammed the market to move up so that we can sell off and not go below the previous low marks set a few weeks ago. On Thursday right before the close I got out of my short term plays and shorted the XLF etf. I may take some pain, but by the end of the next week I see some downward movement.
For long term players, continue to look for stocks that have relative strength compared to the rest of the stocks in that sector. You will find down days that will let you enter positions.
All in all, this is a buy the rumor sell the news cycle where stock fundamentals are taking a back seat to fear and apprehension.

[Shafted69]

Where are all the Tea Baggers from the Obama years who were crying about the FED propping up the markets. Tea Baggers were also protesting against gubmint spending, stimulus & bail outs. When's the next Tea Bagger protest? Asking for a friend.

[homie1975]

Tech earnings should not really suffer though

[keely85]

This first Covid wave should “peak” this week. Will that have any effect on the markets?

[Iona]

This first Covid wave should “peak” this week. Will that have any effect on the markets?

I wish I knew; may be priced in.

FWIW, I am bearish.

[grease lightnin]

Warren Buffett 30M dump. Prepping for crash?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ccn...-market-crash/

Berkshire Hathaway holdings as of 12/31/19 was over $193 billion. $30 million is .0015% of $193 billion.

I would call that trimming. Not anything drastic there.

[d2bets]

This first Covid wave should “peak” this week. Will that have any effect on the markets?

We had a couple hard down weeks followed by a couple hard up weeks, retracing about half of the losses from the Feb high. I'm thinking we might see a pause week with a bit less less volatility and largely flat. 2,790 current S&P and my guess is we trade between 2,700 and 2,850. Not so sure we retest the 2,200ish lows, but do think we'll retest the 2,500 level in late April or early May.

[Iona]

We had a couple hard down weeks followed by a couple hard up weeks, retracing about half of the losses from the Feb high. I'm thinking we might see a pause week with a bit less less volatility and largely flat. 2,790 current S&P and my guess is we trade between 2,700 and 2,850. Not so sure we retest the 2,200ish lows, but do think we'll retest the 2,500 level in late April or early May.

Thanks d2. I am guessing a lot will depend on the news flow (positive / negative).

Do you have an opinion on Gold, interest rates, and inflation / deflation ? If so, I would love to hear them.

The be clear, I am asking because I don't know.

[homie1975]

Berkshire Hathaway holdings as of 12/31/19 was over $193 billion. $30 million is .0015% of $193 billion.

I would call that trimming. Not anything drastic there.

So true. After posting it I did that exact math of 30M divided by 193B and told the Wife "this is not news" lol. My bad.

[HockeyRocks]

Where are all the Tea Baggers from the Obama years who were crying about the FED propping up the markets. Tea Baggers were also protesting against gubmint spending, stimulus & bail outs. When's the next Tea Bagger protest? Asking for a friend.

Really, where did those Wing Nuts slide to? They used to be around like flies....Now they love the way Sleazebag Don spends like a drunken sailor....No questions asked.

[keely85]

Really, where did those Wing Nuts slide to? They used to be around like flies....Now they love the way Sleazebag Don spends like a drunken sailor....No questions asked.

I wonder if Libertarians will get a big boost from Tiger King??

[d2bets]

Thanks d2. I am guessing a lot will depend on the news flow (positive / negative).

Do you have an opinion on Gold, interest rates, and inflation / deflation ? If so, I would love to hear them.

The be clear, I am asking because I don't know.

Gold has already rallied a lot. I'd not be a buyer here, but I could be wrong.
Interest rates should stay low for the next 12-18 months at least. Looking out beyond that, I do think rates and inflation will rise. If you were thinking about buying a house some day and you have a "safe" job, buying later this year or early next during the pandemic could be perfect timing. Low rates, desperate sellers and few buyers. The tricky part is moving. Looking out beyond this 18+ months I think real estate prices will rise.

[Iona]

Thanks, DB, for your response.

Shorted GLD last week. All the "Talking Heads" are saying Gold is going higher. I have done well fading the consensus, so this is not a trade based on anything technical - just a "Gut" feeling.

The smartest people I know agree with you on interest rates - we will be like Japan shortly. Sadly, I am also short the long end of the curve via TBT. Went short when the 10 yr. was at about 2 1/2%. Getting crushed on this one. At the time, I could not envision the potential of negative rates.

Thanks for you input on inflation - I just do not know.

Like Milwaukee Mike, you incorrectly think that I am young. Graduated Iona > 30 years ago. Home purchased and mortgage PIF.

Thanks again for your response. I, and others, value your well informed opinion.

Most importantly, stay healthy.

[d2bets]

Thanks, DB, for your response.

Shorted GLD last week. All the "Talking Heads" are saying Gold is going higher. I have done well fading the consensus, so this is not a trade based on anything technical - just a "Gut" feeling.

The smartest people I know agree with you on interest rates - we will be like Japan shortly. Sadly, I am also short the long end of the curve via TBT. Went short when the 10 yr. was at about 2 1/2%. Getting crushed on this one. At the time, I could not envision the potential of negative rates.

Thanks for you input on inflation - I just do not know.

Like Milwaukee Mike, you incorrectly think that I am young. Graduated Iona > 30 years ago. Home purchased and mortgage PIF.

Thanks again for your response. I, and others, value your well informed opinion.

Most importantly, stay healthy.

I wasn't assuming anything about your age. I was just talking generally about housing prices and mortgages. I guess you're probably in your low 50's?

Nothing wrong with being young or old. I figure I'm neither. I'm right in the middle at 45. I figure I'd never be better prepared for this madness than I am right now, not 5 years ago and not 5 years from now. 45 is a nice porridge. Not young and dumb anymore and not old and crotchety yet. Trying harder to stay "young" now by eating healthy, exercising, being informed, and just staying on top of things.

[Iona]

I wasn't assuming anything about your age. I was just talking generally about housing prices and mortgages. I guess you're probably in your low 50's?

Nothing wrong with being young or old. I figure I'm neither. I'm right in the middle at 45. I figure I'd never be better prepared for this madness than I am right now, not 5 years ago and not 5 years from now. 45 is a nice porridge. Not young and dumb anymore and not old and crotchety yet. Trying harder to stay "young" now by eating healthy, exercising, being informed, and just staying on top of things.

LOL - misunderstandings.

My bad, I should have placed a next the age thing.

I reside in New York under Shelter-at-Home quarantine. By staying healthy, I was referring to Coronavirus.

As always, d2, I hope you stay well and remain profitable in the market(s).

[d2bets]

LOL - misunderstandings.

My bad, I should have placed a next the age thing.

I reside in New York under Shelter-at-Home quarantine. By staying healthy, I was referring to Coronavirus.

As always, d2, I hope you stay well and remain profitable in the market(s).

Stay healthy in NY! We got a lotta cases out here in the Chicago burbs as well.

[HockeyRocks]

Russia-SA agree on reduction in barrels of oil per day. So what will that do to prices with demand still very low and so much oil being stored in tankers...

[d2bets]

On Friday, the market closed higher than where it was at the end of May 2019. Riddle that. The outlook is better now than it was May 31, 2019? We haven't even lost a year's worth of gains yet. In 08/09 we lost more than a decade's worth of gains.