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Excellent data.
Greaser
When do we retest the recent low?Comment -
No one is working and won't for a while. There is no way we've hit bottomComment -
Russia just backed out of oil deal
Might see a 3% drop Monday as oil will surely be destroyed to under $10/ bblComment -
The single biggest threat to man's continued dominance on this planet is the virus.”Comment -
CNBC is reporting that the meeting is delayed until Thursday. The other issue , is both SA and Russia want the U.S to back off a bit on there drilling as well. So right now its full speed ahead as U.S drillers apparently have no interest in cutting back.....Not Good.Comment -
Very few working. Record unemploymentComment -
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">These are the US unemployment claims in their historical context <a href="https://t.co/NJAqPl9BVg">pic.twitter.com/NJAqPl9BVg</a></p>— How Things Work (@ThingsWork) <a href="https://twitter.com/ThingsWork/status/1246150462073536512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >April 3, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Comment -
No....
The unemployment rate does not factor those not in the job market or those underemployed or self employed
35% not in job market
10% self employed
10% unemployed
5% underemployed
5% not interested in working ir seeking employment
35% minors
You can see why the unemployment figure is so important. Can't keep the social programs going if 50% of the eligible working population is out of a job. The unemployment figure basically represents the ability of the US to function financially.Comment -
Many consumers will come out of this better off. Assuming we open in June. Stimulus package+enhanced unemploynent will allow most lower income earners to emerge with extra cash in their pockets. Most higher earners still working from home and being paid. The market will likely fall on bad data, but the smart money is on quick recovery IMO. Buy all the way down.Comment -
Big assumption. Something will reopen, some slower than others. It won't be an on/off switch, because it is not going awhile entirely this year. But I agree, if we turned the switch fully on in June, it could get back to normal pretty quick. The $6 trillion stimulus is pretty massive. Economy will be flooded with cash. Longer-term what this means for debts and deficits, I don't even want to think about. Might be a sharp recovery followed by a retraction when the easy money and debts smacks us on the head.
Also, I do think this is forcing some business to change on a dime and become more efficient, much of it for the better ultimately. Many businesses that survive will be more lean and mean.
All that but the virus is still a big unknown. We really don't know whether we can successfully reopen in June. It's nuts to go through all of this only to give away going back to normal. And then we're fighting from behind again. Can we reopen while still trying to do social distancing? Gloves and masks everywhere? What we'll need is 100% available fast tests on demand. Then we can test like crazy and isolate anyone who is infected. Impossible to do that right know with the lack of available testing. We need a billion fast tests. And then antibody testing so we can identify those who had it and recovered. Let's get this by June and we're good to go.Comment -
Employers need to jump on all the free money available. PPP is paying 2 months of employee wages for you if you keep your employees, up to 10 million. Free money, not taxable. Pretty amazing. There are other programs too. Businesses that will be able to reopen are stupid to shut it down now. Spend this time fixing your business and making it lean and strong. That said, there are some business that are doomed for a much longer time. In particular, restaurants that are not doing pickup or delivery. Sit-down restaurants not coming back strong any time soon.Comment -
Buy NVAX guys... Y'all welcome.Comment -
60 minutes tonight should be worth watchingComment -
OK some of you are calling me out saying that 19,500 isn't really the low, or that level is still over 7% away from the low, and to all of you I say you are technically correct. You are going about this the wrong way and will get toasted in all likelihood. The bottom isn't some magical number that is a hard stop of go or no go. It is really a sentiment of where I believe a majority of investors, or more importantly a majority of the money will change from a buy to a sell. It's not like if the market goes to 19,499 you need to sell everything off, as the dow comes down towards that level, you need to monitor selling volume and stocks with relative strength, and other things, and look at each as the overall market makes lower lows. If the market is going lower and the stock you are looking at basically mirrors the percentage loss as the S&P, or dow, or nasdaq or others, and the selling volume is increasing, then you know not to jump in as the market sentiment is to the down side. If however it just seems like a stock will not go beyond a certain low mark, and the selling volume tapers off as the stock and the overall market comes down, that may be a time to look at getting in. Then place a stop loss under the low point at a certain percentage of pain that you are willing to take. So for example, I have been shorting BA, all the way down to the $90 level with a $15 trailing stop loss which triggered on 3/20, at which point I immediately went long and enjoyed the ride up to $180 on the close 3/26. The next day I went short again after my trailing stop triggered again, but this time when the price gets closer to the $100 level, I will buy some shares back and start loading up to go long for an extended run if the selling volume decreases as the overall market sells off. As I do this I place a stop below the $90 level at a percentage that I am not will to lose any more money. So this is my capitulation level for Boeing, and under that I will continue to short. They call it cost averaging which as a general rule I disagree with, but in this case the market can be so volatile as to jump either way 10% in a single day. So what happens sometimes the market will move one way or the other a little bit before taking off. To be exact, I bought 100 BA shares the other day when the $120 level triggered, next I will by probably 150 shares when the price reaches $110, and 200 shares when the price hits $100, so if the market turns and runs, I will have some shares to run with and I will not be chasing. If however, the market turns south and the price gets down to $85 buck, I'm out. So I am gambling a total of $48500, and my cost average will be $107.78 per share. if the market turns before I still make out, but if the price goes down to $85, I'm out $10,250, or roughly slightly more than a 20% loss. At that point I will try again to get in in the same manner.
If however it goes down and my buys are all triggered, then the market pops, BA can gain 20% in a gap up start and be above the $130 mark real quick. At $130, I make 20% gain and I think in this case the gains will be atleast that much even if it is only a short time rally.
I started trading during the dot com bubble and when that crashed, I lost my ass and learned a lesson about stop losses and the art of creating a buffer zone that will allow for you to get out or in. Then we had the housing bubble, and when that crashed I did better and didn't lose money in the end. Then we had the latest bubble or the "QE" bubble as they say, and now that it has crashed. The market will be re-inflated with some other scam, it doesn't matter what or how or why you just know it is going to happen. It will be all fake news, as it is always fake news, but it doesn't matter I'm just looking to follow the ride.
I know it looks really bad, re-dick-ulous unemployment, everyone on lock down, earnings through the floor, people dropping like flys, fear everywhere etc... so this week in particular will be a rough week for news, but the market is expecting this, so when 25,000 people die, 10 million more people file for unemployment, and I still can't find toilet paper to wipe my ass and other bad news hits, the market will still drift down as the whole market will be held up on sentiment and hope. Bad news in short will be shrugged off and I'm saying next weekend when the Trumpster announces that the country will open up a few weeks later and here's how we would like to to act, the Monday afterwards will see a rally like no other, and it will probably gap open up a thousand points to start and getting a price you like may not be possible.Comment -
Slurry I'm ready for the drop. I haven't bought a thing since Monday 3/23.
I don't short. I play the long game.Comment -
Tldr slurry
good luck to youComment -
Futures pointing way up.
Then again, who knows.
Trump is going to want a May 1 open; the scientists are going to want June 1 at least. Going to be an epic struggle. But all of the small biz programs, etc seem geared toward a 2-month April/May help. Best case is really to flatten this sucker by the end of May and start opening back up in June. But it's not just a light switch.Comment -
Nope, no light switch at all.. Folks will be easing back to work. I might be wearing my standard 3 masks to work. I know I will
Yes the DOW up about 600 in the pre.Comment -
Something big is about to happen.Comment -
Pav-er
Please elaborateComment -
i think paver is probably in my camp, that none of this was really about a virus... do you really shut down the entire world because a handful of old people are dying?
us flu deaths 60,000/year
us coronavirus deaths 10,000
you can live on your feet or die on your kneesComment -
well if you keep posting that sitting on a couch indoors, and getting jabbed with a vaccine somehow leads to better health, then i'm gonna post the truth. you're picking the peak of an outbreak (with inflated numbers since i've shown in other threads that many of these deaths aren't covid) to say it's the #3 cause of death.
exercise, fresh air, vitamin d (sunlight), those things lead to good health and strong immune systems.Comment -
back to stocks
i think today is a game changer... italy series a potentially starting up again in may, teams eligible to sue the league for not letting them play is a great start, we could see the same with other sports teams across the globe.
i would be buying some travel stocks, beaten down stuff, i grabbed more kss and psxComment -
huge moves this morning
penn +14%
amc +16%
home +25%
kss +19%
wynn +18%Comment
