When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

Robust · 12-08-08, 11:51 PM

Follow the money!!!

Robust

MikeZaW · 12-09-08, 12:16 AM

Nice work Robust! I sure used this tonight because the line didn't move so I followed the money. Also had the over. GL keep hammer'in the books!

ManBearPig · 12-09-08, 02:23 AM

So if I understand all this right the Titans game next week might be something to keep your eye on. According to sports.com the game has 90% play on the Titans yet the line has moved from 3.5 to 3. Say this goes to 2.5 tomorrow would the smart play be the Texans?

Robust · 12-09-08, 02:26 AM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

So if I understand all this right the Titans game next week might be something to keep your eye on. According to sports.com the game has 90% play on the Titans yet the line has moved from 3.5 to 3. Say this goes to 2.5 tomorrow would the smart play be the Texans?

I saw that already.. i will keep my eye on it to see if it shifts back, but as of right now, Hou is the play.

good lcuk!

Robust

Robust · 12-09-08, 02:32 AM

Ravens has RLM as well.. 30% of bets and the line moved from -1 to -2.. a full point.. I am prolly gonna lock this in tommorrow...

Robust

yisman · 12-09-08, 02:45 AM

I think it's a tad early to say RLM when it just opened.

Robust · 12-09-08, 03:08 AM

Originally posted by yisman

I think it's a tad early to say RLM when it just opened.

yup.. but i was going for baltimore anyway.. pitt got a huge win from dallas and i think this will be a letdown game..

early rlm just put it over the top..

but yes.. it is too early right now to bet on it as RLM... i want to get it before the 3..

Robust

spmurph · 12-09-08, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by yisman

I think it's a tad early to say RLM when it just opened.

Yea, way too early. If I remember correctly, LT says to wait until there are about 10,000 bets in.

McRich · 12-09-08, 06:02 PM

I am playing Sacramento Kings +12 and West Virginia -2.5 in NCAABB for RLM plays tonight.

smitch124 · 12-09-08, 06:57 PM

No GA Bulldogs tonight McRich?

McRich · 12-09-08, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

No GA Bulldogs tonight McRich?

I have been busy today. The numbers did not line up when I had a chance to wager. Too late now.

McRich · 12-09-08, 08:22 PM

Idaho State +19.5 for a RLM play tonight.

smitch124 · 12-09-08, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by McRich

I have been busy today. The numbers did not line up when I had a chance to wager. Too late now.

The movement was kinda late...

Capybara · 12-09-08, 10:35 PM

Darn, got in late tonight and only got onto the Kings -- just in time... But missed out on a bunch of CBB, including Idaho State -- wow, huge RLM play that came in big! Would have lost with West Virginia, though, I see.....

Anyway, go Sacramento!!

McRich · 12-09-08, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

Darn, got in late tonight and only got onto the Kings -- just in time... But missed out on a bunch of CBB, including Idaho State -- wow, huge RLM play that came in big! Would have lost with West Virginia, though, I see.....

Anyway, go Sacramento!!

I'm bummed that I missed the Georgia game. I need to Kings game tonight for a positive night. Let's go Kings.

McRich · 12-10-08, 12:22 AM

I went 2-1 in my RLM plays on Mon. 1-1 in NCAABB and 1-0 in NBA.

Overall record is 42-27-2.

The breakdown of RLM that I have wagered on per sport so far is:

NBA 14-9
NCAABB 17-10-1
NCAAF 7-5-1
NFL 4-3

ManBearPig · 12-10-08, 01:52 AM

The sad thing is after reading this whole thread last night and spending 3 hrs trying to understand what exactly to look for I failed to use it for my benefit. I identified the Sac game as a potential winner and still didn't bet it. I even went as far as to fail to look at the Wisconsin game and bet on Wisonsin anyways. Tonight could've been so much more beneficial if I would just trust the system. Tomorrow I am playing them instead of second guessing.

McRich · 12-10-08, 07:03 AM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

The sad thing is after reading this whole thread last night and spending 3 hrs trying to understand what exactly to look for I failed to use it for my benefit. I identified the Sac game as a potential winner and still didn't bet it. I even went as far as to fail to look at the Wisconsin game and bet on Wisonsin anyways. Tonight could've been so much more beneficial if I would just trust the system. Tomorrow I am playing them instead of second guessing.

My favorite wager last night was the Idaho State one. I hate the Badgers (I am a MSU Spartan fan), so I was hoping Idaho State would win outright. They almost did.

Like I have said before, this may turn and go south at any moment. I plan on posting until I have 100 RLM plays. Here's to scoring some big cashes.

SexyMit · 12-10-08, 08:24 AM

It will be profitable, just stick with big line moves and you will make money.

LT Profits · 12-10-08, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by SexyMit

It will be profitable, just stick with big line moves and you will make money.

As long as you jump in when the move hits one point and don't wait until the last minute after the value has been sucked out of the line.

The biggest misconception I am picking up from this thread is there are guys watching for big line moves and then betting the line when it is at its worst.

SexyMit · 12-10-08, 09:37 AM

Yes LT is right. Don't wait till the line is done moving then jump on it. You want to catch it just starting to move then jump on it before it gets all the way down. The more points the better.

smitch124 · 12-10-08, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

As long as you jump in when the move hits one point and don't wait until the last minute after the value has been sucked out of the line.

The biggest misconception I am picking up from this thread is there are guys watching for big line moves and then betting the line when it is at its worst.

The difficulty, to me, is striking a balance between waiting long enough so there have been enough bets placed and betting early enough to beat at least some of the line movement. Many times you can't do both.

spmurph · 12-10-08, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

The difficulty, to me, is striking a balance between waiting long enough so there have been enough bets placed and betting early enough to beat at least some of the line movement. Many times you can't do both.

LT correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the criteria, for NFL anyway, were 60%+, around 10,000 bets, and at least 1-point reverse movement.

yisman · 12-10-08, 12:51 PM

check out Indiana-Toronto. NBA.

as for what's being discussed, you can't do both. What LT does is get an alert when a line moves, and then finds a slow-moving book that hasn't made the line shift yet.

ManBearPig · 12-10-08, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

As long as you jump in when the move hits one point and don't wait until the last minute after the value has been sucked out of the line.

The biggest misconception I am picking up from this thread is there are guys watching for big line moves and then betting the line when it is at its worst.

I guess this is the hardest for me because I have to actually drive down to the casino as I can't just log on to my PC and pick. This can cost me valuable time because I can't just bet it as soon as i see it. I guess I'm unsure of how to determine when the the best time to place the bet is. If you see a line that has moved by 1.5+ should you still bet it or is that too late.

See Harvard line for tonight as and example. Opened at +4.5 but is now at +2.5. Does that mean that it has been milked and this is now too late to bet on? I see a few RLM games tonight but am usure of which to choose based on timing.

LT Profits · 12-10-08, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

The difficulty, to me, is striking a balance between waiting long enough so there have been enough bets placed and betting early enough to beat at least some of the line movement. Many times you can't do both.

It;s actually easier in football because games often reach 10,000 bets late in the week, still a few days before game day.

LT Profits · 12-10-08, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

I guess this is the hardest for me because I have to actually drive down to the casino as I can't just log on to my PC and pick. This can cost me valuable time because I can't just bet it as soon as i see it. I guess I'm unsure of how to determine when the the best time to place the bet is. If you see a line that has moved by 1.5+ should you still bet it or is that too late.

See Harvard line for tonight as and example. Opened at +4.5 but is now at +2.5. Does that mean that it has been milked and this is now too late to bet on? I see a few RLM games tonight but am usure of which to choose based on timing.

Yes, that I cannot relate to. I think having instant access to lines is a must. Maybe open up some online accounts?

LT Profits · 12-10-08, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by spmurph

LT correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the criteria, for NFL anyway, were 60%+, around 10,000 bets, and at least 1-point reverse movement.

Correct, and in foots you could have all three criteria during the week. I would bet as soon as all are met, and not wait until gameday.

losturmarbles · 12-10-08, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

I guess this is the hardest for me because I have to actually drive down to the casino as I can't just log on to my PC and pick. This can cost me valuable time because I can't just bet it as soon as i see it. I guess I'm unsure of how to determine when the the best time to place the bet is. If you see a line that has moved by 1.5+ should you still bet it or is that too late.

See Harvard line for tonight as and example. Opened at +4.5 but is now at +2.5. Does that mean that it has been milked and this is now too late to bet on? I see a few RLM games tonight but am usure of which to choose based on timing.

it will probably go back a +3 by game time. watch for it at http://www.sbrodds.com/ and you may be able to find a book that has it at +3.5 in a couple of hours.

McRich · 12-10-08, 05:15 PM

I am wagering on Pacers +3 and Hawks +6 in NBA for RLM plays.

youngbutgood · 12-10-08, 06:58 PM

nevermind

Capybara · 12-10-08, 07:06 PM

For tonight, I'm showing Pacers, Hawks, and Bucks in NBA; Harvard, Bradley, and Ohio in CBB... That roughly in line with what you lads are showing?

Nice Kings score last night!

Even a flat-out win!

smitch124 · 12-10-08, 07:21 PM

Creighton too now @ -7

McRich · 12-10-08, 07:28 PM

I am wagering on the Bucks +1.5, Creighton -7.5, Bradley pick 'em for RLM plays.

McRich · 12-10-08, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

For tonight, I'm showing Pacers, Hawks, and Bucks in NBA; Harvard, Bradley, and Ohio in CBB... That roughly in line with what you lads are showing?

Nice Kings score last night!

Even a flat-out win!

A lot of RLM plays tonight. Yeah, I see most of these games as plays. The Harvard didn't have enough bets for me.