When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

[losturmarbles]

its about informing the public

live this experience?

its not LT's system either, its common sense that the sharps should have a winning %, rlm just identifies which side more sharps are on.

[McRich]

I would disagree with you lost. First, there are only 15,000 people on this board, who knows how many of them actually follow SBR on a regular basis. Millions of people participate in sports capping (and that is generous, probably in the 10's of millions). Even if every member of SBR, and even outsiders who aren't registered, know about RLM it would still be largely unaffected. I would venture a guess that most bettors are not going to take the time to nail down a system of their own (which may or may not even consider RLM) and therefore RLM will remain esoteric.

To be sure, I would look at RLM trends past, present, and future. If more and more individuals are playing RLM, we should expect to see larger discrepencies open to close. If you see large changes, past to present, then maybe you should draw concern. Until then, I am sticking with my theory.

The whole point of this board, after all, is to get insights that other cappers, fans, etc. have that you might not have. Prohibiting certain topics is undermining what this board is all about. After all, this isn't communist China!

Very well stated Bake. This board has provided so much great information for me. Not just RLM plays. I don't just wager on RLM plays. Check out my Best Bets - not good.

I am here to help me better understand capping information.

Now let's get back to the business of beating the books!!!

[McRich]

its about informing the public

live this experience?

its not LT's system either, its common sense that the sharps should have a winning %, rlm just identifies which side more sharps are on.

I realize LT didn't create this system, but I was introduced to RLM by his article and postings.

I am not interested in a message board battle. That is not why I am here. Best wishes on your picks and I hope you profit.

[Bake]

Who said anything about informing the public? Nobody is posting RLM billboards nationwide. Nobody is running daily commercials on ESPN. Come on now, your concern is largely baseless.

[losturmarbles]

im not saying to prohibit from talking about rlm, im just saying it isnt wise to make those aware that are the main component of your system.

[apk2k6]

i dunno where you got your numers.. this is ALL BULLSHIT.. or some have posted.. LOL

wonder if they will chime in on a 3-0 night and say it was a big discrepancy..

LOL!!!

Robust

I have an excel spreadsheet of RLM picks since 12/3 when I started it. It's hitting 67% in this time period and it's looking real good today too.

Keep on hating people. People think that just by looking at the line, it's not "capping". Well I like it because it creates an unbiased system since I often find myself playing teams I never would have before. If you can pick winners before even looking at who's playing, now that's a system.

I like to combine it with another math system I use and it's money with the picks that come up from both.

Here are my NCAAB RLM plays:

12/6 NorthEastern -2.5
12/6 Vandy +5
12/6 NC Charlotte +6
12/6 Wright State +4.5
12/6 Tulane +4
12/6 Utah St. +6

NCAAF

12/6 East Car. +12
12/6 Va. Tech -1
12/6 W. Kentucky +6

[LT Profits]

I got my numbers from McRich, but you know what dumb@ss, I have an excel spreadsheet of RLM picks since 12/3 when I started it. It's hitting 67% in this time period and it's looking real good today too.

Keep on hating people. People think that just by looking at the line, it's not "capping". Well I like it because it creates an unbiased system since I often find myself playing teams I never would have before. If you can pick winners before even looking at who's playing, now that's a system.

I like to combine it with another math system I use and it's money with the picks that come up from both.

Here are my NCAAB RLM plays:

12/6 NorthEastern -2.5
12/6 Vandy +5
12/6 NC Charlotte +6
12/6 Wright State +4.5
12/6 Tulane +4
12/6 Utah St. +6

NCAAF

12/6 East Car. +12
12/6 Va. Tech -1
12/6 W. Kentucky +6

Robust was being sarcastic, doing his best Patsfan impersonation. Check Pat's negative comments throughout this thread.

[apk2k6]

Robust was being sarcastic, doing his best Patsfan impersonation. Check Pat's negative comments throughout this thread.

Sorry Robust, I edited my orignial post haha. I thought you were Pat's sidekick. I hope Vandy doesn't blow this....

[Robust]

no worries.. i thought using the word "BS" was a bit over the top.. i knew someone would read it wrong, but left it there anyway

good luck to all!

Robust

[McRich]

I am on Utah St. +6 for a RLM play.

[McRich]

Suns -7 for an RLM play.

[patsfan2727]

the line moved to CIN+14 is it still considered a play?

[yisman]

please stop trolling this thread.

[McRich]

I went 4-1 in my RLM plays on Sat. 0-1 in NBA, 2-0 in NCAABB, 2-0 in NCAAF.

Overall record is 39-26-2.

The breakdown of RLM that I have wagered on per sport so far is:

NBA 13-9
NCAABB 16-9-1
NCAAF 7-5-1
NFL 3-3

[I.R.B]

East Carolina +12.5 in NCAAF for an RLM play.

This was my Biggest bet of the month so far... Jumped on it earlyer in the week..

[hhsilver]

I want to thank you guys for keeping this thread going. Please don't get too involved arguing with the naysayers. If I were you, I would only respond to those who have valid concerns or questions that are expressed in a civil manner. I'd like to see this thread continue and remain as uncluttered as possible.

And a special thanks to LT for all the help he gave, especially early in the thread, when he answered many repeat questions.

[McRich]

This was my Biggest bet of the month so far... Jumped on it earlyer in the week..

Congrats. There is nothing better than nailing your big bets. I hit my biggest one of the month last night (Oklahoma - not a RLM play).

[McRich]

I want to thank you guys for keeping this thread going. Please don't get too involved arguing with the naysayers. If I were you, I would only respond to those who have valid concerns or questions that are expressed in a civil manner. I'd like to see this thread continue and remain as uncluttered as possible.

And a special thanks to LT for all the help he gave, especially early in the thread, when he answered many repeat questions.

Excellent comments. I agree about LT. He was very helpful with all of my questions.

[McRich]

I went 1-0 in my RLM plays on Sun. It was the Eagles in the NFL.

Overall record is 40-26-2.

The breakdown of RLM that I have wagered on per sport so far is:

NBA 13-9
NCAABB 16-9-1
NCAAF 7-5-1
NFL 4-3

[SexyMit]

Lets just put it this way. I just won 2nd place in BTP contest useing this theory every week in college and NFL for the 14 week contest. 1500 cash prize for 2nd place not including the almost 400 weekly winnings. And not to mention quite a few thousand extra this yr in personal betting so TRUST ME..... IT DOES WORK.

[McRich]

Lets just put it this way. I just won 2nd place in BTP contest useing this theory every week in college and NFL for the 14 week contest. 1500 cash prize for 2nd place not including the almost 400 weekly winnings. And not to mention quite a few thousand extra this yr in personal betting so TRUST ME..... IT DOES WORK.

Sweet!!! That's good to hear. Congrats.

[McRich]

I am on the Heat -8.5 for a RLM play tonight.

DOH-Not an RLM play. I looked at the numbers wrong.

[MoneySportsGuy]

McRich

Have any RLM plays for tonight?

[LT Profits]

Maybe Clippers?

[McRich]

McRich

Have any RLM plays for tonight?

Like LT said, the Clippers are a 1/2 point move for a RLM play. That is a lean for me. I have been trying to stick with one point or more moves.

The only RLM play that I have seen a one point move in the last two days was the Eagles yesterday.

[spmurph]

McRich, you use the Sports Insights Bet Tracker?

[McRich]

McRich, you use the Sports Insights Bet Tracker?

Yes, then I use the SBR live lines to see if I can gain an advantage with my local.

My local has been behind a few times.

[BamaBill67]

I want to make sure I am getting this right.......... If you use this line of thinking, then tonight take Tampa +3, bc the betting is Carolina -3 / 70%, or take Tampa ML

[roasthawg]

I want to make sure I am getting this right.......... If you use this line of thinking, then tonight take Tampa +3, bc the betting is Carolina -3 / 70%, or take Tampa ML

Tonight's game is a no play as far as rlm is concerned...the line has moved as expected with the majority of plays on Carolina.

[BamaBill67]

I don't doubt your right roasthawg just trying to get this theory down, but not sure what i have been reading. Under this theory is the bet Tampa ML

[LT Profits]

RLM takes place when a majority of bets placed are on one team, but the line moves in the opposite direction. So if 70% of bets are on Carolina, Tampa Bay would be an RLM play if the line moves from, say, Carolina -3 to Carolina -2.

[Robust]

I want to make sure I am getting this right.......... If you use this line of thinking, then tonight take Tampa +3, bc the betting is Carolina -3 / 70%, or take Tampa ML

"When the spread doesn't move, follow the money"

the spread has not moved, so i am following the money...

it is not RLM bro..

Robust

[BamaBill67]

Ok, but no line movement? Carolina -3 all week and 70% of the bet and -3 at kick-off........What is the bet?.............sorry to keep asking but the math yall use is over my head. See, what is confusing me is the title is follow the ML and now you are saying follow the money.

[Robust]

Ok, but no line movement? Carolina -3 all week and 70% of the bet and -3 at kick-off........What is the bet?.............sorry to keep asking but the math yall use is over my head. See, what is confusing me is the title is follow the ML and now you are saying follow the money.

follow the money means, go with the higher percent of bets for the team.... that would mean Carolina in this case..

RLM would be if Car has 70% of the bets, then the spread goes to -2.5.. since everyone and their mother was betting on carolina, that should mean they go to -3.5.. so the -2.5 would be REVERSE of what the line should have done.

hope i didn't confuse ya.

Robust

[BamaBill67]

Gotcha........ That's what I thought.....Thank you for taking the time and clearing that up. I am new but really like the input on this site. I have had a couple of problems but learning what I did wrong.