When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

apk2k6 · 12-17-08, 02:50 PM

Colorado wasn't a play last night in the NHL, the % dropped off around 30 minutes before the game. I only had Atlanta last night as a play and possibly the Flames if using Bookmaker as your comparison book.....

I've learned to not post plays so early because the lines/%'s always move. I like to wait until about 15 minutes until the start of each match/game.

smitch124 · 12-17-08, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by apk2k6

Colorado wasn't a play last night in the NHL, the % dropped off around 30 minutes before the game. I only had Atlanta last night as a play and possibly the Flames if using Bookmaker as your comparison book.....

I've learned to not post plays so early because the lines/%'s always move. I like to wait until about 15 minutes until the start of each match/game.

It is hard to strike a balance, you don't want to wait too long because you wanna get on the right side of some of the line movement. If you do bet early the percentages can change. Thats why its good to have a set criteria such as # of bets or time before game time and stick with it.

FreeFall · 12-17-08, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by apk2k6

Colorado wasn't a play last night in the NHL, the % dropped off around 30 minutes before the game. I only had Atlanta last night as a play and possibly the Flames if using Bookmaker as your comparison book.....

I've learned to not post plays so early because the lines/%'s always move. I like to wait until about 15 minutes until the start of each match/game.

that is actually a bad idea as your getting too close to the closing line. I tend to bet two hours before game time if there are a certain # of bets and a 60/40 with 1+ line movement. With the hope of getting some steam on my side along with being on the "smart" side.

FreeFall · 12-17-08, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

good work FF, thanks for the heads up on those...

Thanks it never hurts to have another set of eyes look over things.

Good luck today!

apk2k6 · 12-17-08, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by FreeFall

that is actually a bad idea as your getting too close to the closing line. I tend to bet two hours before game time if there are a certain # of bets and a 60/40 with 1+ line movement. With the hope of getting some steam on my side along with being on the "smart" side.

Thanks for clearing that up.

FreeFall · 12-17-08, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by FreeFall

leans
NBA
Bucks(no play 59/41%)
Atlanta(play)
Nets(only half point no play)
NHL
Minnesota(no play 57/43%)
NCAAB
Old Dominion(no play .5 pt)
UCLA(need more bets)(no play 47/53%)
Austin Peay(need more bets)
Siena(no play 59/41%)

bet
NHL
Columbus +153 (5dimes)
NCAAB
Cal Poly SLO +4.5 -105 (5dimes)

bet
NBA
Atlanta +3.5 -107 5dimes
NHL
Columbus +153 (5dimes)
NCAAB
Cal Poly SLO +4.5 -105 (5dimes)
Austin Peavy +6 -108 5dimes

NCAAB bet size of 1k-1.5k Not sure a good amount for this sport yet.

McRich · 12-17-08, 05:32 PM

I am wagering on the Hawks +3.5 for a RLM play.

McRich · 12-17-08, 08:03 PM

I am wagering on Austin Peay +6, Siena +16.5 and Cal Poly +4.5 for RLM plays.

FreeFall · 12-17-08, 08:05 PM

whats the amt of bets you look for mrrich on NCAAB

McRich · 12-17-08, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by FreeFall

whats the amt of bets you look for mrrich on NCAAB

I try to get as close or over 2500 bets.

apk2k6 · 12-17-08, 11:00 PM

RLM seems to be doing pretty well in the NHL so far.

yisman · 12-18-08, 12:06 AM

good night for you, McRich. 2-1 cbb and 1-0 NBA.

McRich · 12-18-08, 12:07 AM

Went 3-1 in RLM plays on Wed. 1-0 in NBA and 2-1 in NCAABB.

Overall record is 53-37-4. (I will stop at 100 RLM wagers)

The breakdown of RLM that I have wagered on per sport so far is:

NBA 19-12-1
NCAABB 23-16-2
NCAAF 7-5-1
NFL 4-4

McRich · 12-18-08, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by yisman

good night for you, McRich. 2-1 cbb and 1-0 NBA.

Yes, I had a good night. I also hit a NCAABB over too!!!

McRich · 12-18-08, 09:41 AM

I am wagering on the Ravens +4 for a RLM play.

FreeFall · 12-18-08, 11:51 AM

where did you see +4?

McRich · 12-18-08, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by FreeFall

where did you see +4?

I see +4 everywhere.

FreeFall · 12-18-08, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by McRich

I see +4 everywhere.

not a single book on sbrlines has +4...

smitch124 · 12-18-08, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by FreeFall

not a single book on sbrlines has +4...

Are you sure you're looking at the Ravens on Sat night and not tonight's game?

FreeFall · 12-18-08, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Are you sure you're looking at the Ravens on Sat night and not tonight's game?

You are correct, my apologies.

Watching
NHL
Florida
Atlanta
NBA
nothing
NCAAB
Florida International

McRich · 12-18-08, 05:41 PM

I am wagering on the Jaguars +6 for a RLM play.

McRich · 12-18-08, 11:34 PM

Went 0-1 in RLM plays on Thurs. 0-1 in NFL.

Overall record is 53-38-4. (I will stop at 100 RLM wagers)

The breakdown of RLM that I have wagered on per sport so far is:

NBA 19-12-1
NCAABB 23-16-2
NCAAF 7-5-1
NFL 4-5

yisman · 12-18-08, 11:46 PM

just 5 plays left

McRich · 12-19-08, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by yisman

just 5 plays left

Yes, I should have my 100 experiment completed this weekend. My bankroll has enjoyed these plays.

McRich · 12-19-08, 01:04 PM

I am wagering on the Nets +3.5 and the Thunder +6.5 for RLM plays.

FreeFall · 12-19-08, 02:41 PM

seahawks just hit. Get it before it goes over the 3.

Anyone attempting the bowl games? I see RLM all over that. Should I take them now?

Capybara · 12-19-08, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by McRich

Yes, I should have my 100 experiment completed this weekend. My bankroll has enjoyed these plays.

Just got home -- the blizzard is hittin' us hard now! Sent us home early!

So McRich, now the big question is: What happens when the experiment finishes???? Do we start all over again?

McRich · 12-19-08, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

Just got home -- the blizzard is hittin' us hard now! Sent us home early!

So McRich, now the big question is: What happens when the experiment finishes???? Do we start all over again?

Well, after the 100 posted picks using RLM I will definitely be using RLM and my own angles for picks. I say the next 100 RLM picks are yours to post Capybara!!!

I am finding a lot of value in this angle. I will post my RLM record maybe after 25 play increments. We shall see.

I'm stuck in the blizzard also.

McRich · 12-19-08, 06:13 PM

I am wagering on the Seahawks +4 for a RLM play.

McRich · 12-19-08, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by FreeFall

seahawks just hit. Get it before it goes over the 3.

Anyone attempting the bowl games? I see RLM all over that. Should I take them now?

I have wagered RLM plays on Ohio St., Utah, Mississippi, Penn. St. and Oregon already in Bowl games.

smitch124 · 12-19-08, 09:25 PM

Do we want to keep this thread going or start a new one for the discussion of RLM plays for the day?

Capybara · 12-19-08, 09:40 PM

Why start a new one? Because this one's too big, you mean?

By the way, RLM looking great so far tonight! (In addition to the two NBA plays, I added Richmond +8.5 against Wake Forest.)

McRich · 12-19-08, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Do we want to keep this thread going or start a new one for the discussion of RLM plays for the day?

I will keep discussing RLM plays in this thread.

McRich · 12-19-08, 09:59 PM

My favorite part of my RLM plays is the fact that I am killing my local guy with a 64% win rate on basketball.

McRich · 12-19-08, 10:31 PM

Went 2-0 in RLM plays on Fri. 2-0 in NBA.

Overall record is 55-38-4. (I will stop at 100 RLM wagers)

The breakdown of RLM that I have wagered on per sport so far is:

NBA 21-12-1
NCAABB 23-16-2
NCAAF 7-5-1
NFL 4-5