When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

[McRich]

What do u guys think about Tulsa tonight, rlm?

I saw your post after the game started, but it did not fit RLM.
Northwestern fits RLM tonight.

[fiveteamer]

Are these RLM's?

Cal-Washington State PK

75% of money is on Cal, but the line moves to -1.5 for WSU.

Also WKU-FIU

94% of the money is on WKU but the line goes from +6.5 to +6 for WKU.

????????????????????

[losturmarbles]

Are these RLM's?

Cal-Washington State PK

75% of money is on Cal, but the line moves to -1.5 for WSU.

Also WKU-FIU

94% of the money is on WKU but the line goes from +6.5 to +6 for WKU.

????????????????????

yes, but i believe the line went back to +6.5 for FIU

[Capybara]

Hey, calling all you RLM'ers, let's hear from you! How have you been doing with it lately? I haven't been on all the games, but have been on most of them, and it seems to me lately that when I have bet RLMs, they are not winning at their usual clip....

Anyone else been having the same experience lately?

Some of you have shown stats that it should work 60% of the time over time, right? Just wanted to double-check, because honestly it seems like it's been under 50% lately, especially in college hoops.
Come on, y'all, stop lurking and chime in!

[Robust]

Hey, calling all you RLM'ers, let's hear from you! How have you been doing with it lately? I haven't been on all the games, but have been on most of them, and it seems to me lately that when I have bet RLMs, they are not winning at their usual clip....

Anyone else been having the same experience lately?

Some of you have shown stats that it should work 60% of the time over time, right? Just wanted to double-check, because honestly it seems like it's been under 50% lately, especially in college hoops.
Come on, y'all, stop lurking and chime in!

i did bball picks on tuesday i believe.. paid the juice.. but i think i did like 5-3.. just bet them with diff units..

college bball is a real pain.. but there are some gems.. still trying to get a grasp of it.. NFL was easy imo.. and mostly won (when i bet anyway)..

good luck! and don't give up.. maybe reduce the bet amounts on "iffy" rlms? and i don't know what "iffy" means.. lol

Robust

[FreeFall]

spreadsheet. Check it w/o NHL and it seems to hit 60%. I think I'm doing ML's wrong even though I'm doing what LT said because they should be hitting higher.

[losturmarbles]

just something to watch, many times you might get a half point move or so on the spread if the total o/u changes. many times in cbb the totals will come out pretty late, they will open at 1 number and drop 5 or 6 points really fast. i dont have a estimate scale or anything but if team A goes from +8 to +7 and looks like a rlm, it may be the fact that the books are just adjusting the spread from steam on the under (since the spread is correlated with the total).

there's a little trick you can use to check the total using the free sports insights tracker. click the little graph that shows the % and the line movement. when you open that page change the url at the very end there will be a "4" , change that to 9 and press enter. it will load a similar graph except of the total and the % on the under. totals usually have a lot less volume betting so be careful using any rlm theories on it though.

[boxcar]

1 - Yes, 6 cents for Green Alerts, 10 cents for my own.

2 - No, ignore any alert of any kind where the line has moved against the alert play since OPENER.

3 - For the day-to-day sports, you probably should not start tracking until about two hours before the first game. Your family will thank you for it.

And I am a professional numbers dork too.

LT -- thanks so much for all the great info. So if I hear you correctly, if the line moves at all against the smart play, even since opener, don't play it? So if the line fluctuates like normal lines do for the several hours before tipoff, then a half hour before tip there's a significant RLM, you still wouldn't play it? If RLM is caused by sharp money plays, wouldn't you expect this to be a typical scenario?

Thanks again.

[yisman]

just something to watch, many times you might get a half point move or so on the spread if the total o/u changes. many times in cbb the totals will come out pretty late, they will open at 1 number and drop 5 or 6 points really fast. i dont have a estimate scale or anything but if team A goes from +8 to +7 and looks like a rlm, it may be the fact that the books are just adjusting the spread from steam on the under (since the spread is correlated with the total).

there's a little trick you can use to check the total using the free sports insights tracker. click the little graph that shows the % and the line movement. when you open that page change the url at the very end there will be a "4" , change that to 9 and press enter. it will load a similar graph except of the total and the % on the under. totals usually have a lot less volume betting so be careful using any rlm theories on it though.

rlm doesn't work too well with totals.

[larryacraig]

How do you follow this

Denver opens -2 68% of the bets are on Phoenix (The dog) yet the line still drops to -1.5

[mel1970]

Hey, good stuff

[LT Profits]

How do you follow this

Denver opens -2 68% of the bets are on Phoenix (The dog) yet the line still drops to -1.5

That's a normal move that matches the money

[Capybara]

A 4-0 night in RLM by my count, nice! (Of course, no bets for me as I'm broke , but still tracking it.) Others concur w/ these findings?

I had:

NBA:
Bulls +7.5

NCAA:
Denver +8
Middle Tenn. St. +3
Canisius +2

[FreeFall]

Denver didnt hit 2.5k bets

[losturmarbles]

anyone?

[LT Profits]

anyone?

No spam here, method has won in every sport the last two years.

[losturmarbles]

no, a dude posted some spam shit right above me, i guess i shouldve quoted him or partially quoted him. his post has since been deleted.

[LT Profits]

Gotcha marbles, it's all good.

[hajune]

smart money moves

60% of all public money is on Baltimore. There are many streams of " smart money" on Pitt from all the major books. Think about it everybody. Baltimore had 5 turnover recoveries with 3 in scoring position. They benefited from penalites in a big way. 5 turnovers are almost a sure recipe for victory and yet they won by only 3!! They also have 2 key injuries for Sunday's game. My gut feeling is that Baltimore's great run is over.

[Slim]

Like 95% on Akron vs Youngstown St. Line hasn't budged.

[Slim]

Thread keeps on winning.

[yisman]

Oklahoma State tonight.


Public is on the Sooners heavy

[choinfl]

OK now the line is moving. What should be the pick? I am not really familiar with this thread yet. Here is the new line
2009-02-01 PITTSBURGH STEELERS -7 -6.5 49% 11% 60%
Click Here 18:20 EST ARIZONA CARDINALS 46.5 46.5 51% 89% 40%Thanks

[yisman]

McRich, Cappy, FreeFall?

[SexyMit]

Tonight is UTAH!

[yisman]

Jazz?

Certainly a lot of line movement on that game. Utah has gone from +2.5 to -1.

[SexyMit]

Yes Sir that is the one...

[FreeFall]

02/16/2009
10:35 PM
61 - Atlanta Thrashers
62 - Los Angeles Kings


+185(open) +169(now)
-203(open) -179(now)

does that mean that atlanta is a play? I'm trying to understand this with ML's for MLB and NHL. I see a 24 cent move for the fav and 16 cent move for the dog. If it's in the -200 then you have to wait for a 20 cent move, but on which side?

[yisman]

Denver Nuggers +ML tonight appears to be a case of the spread not moving with the public heavily on Boston.

[pat venditto]

Glad to see someone on the board is using their head.

[LT Profits]

02/16/2009
10:35 PM
61 - Atlanta Thrashers
62 - Los Angeles Kings


+185(open) +169(now)
-203(open) -179(now)

does that mean that atlanta is a play? I'm trying to understand this with ML's for MLB and NHL. I see a 24 cent move for the fav and 16 cent move for the dog. If it's in the -200 then you have to wait for a 20 cent move, but on which side?

Problem with hockey is you have to wait until later in the day, as I want 3000 plays before even considering NHL RLM. Once you do have 3000 bets, an RLM of more than 10 cents (i.e., 11 cents or more) is sufficient if the public is over 60% on the other side.

[Vonnegut]

Creighton Blue Jays tonight in NCAA, 96% of the public on them, no line movement.

[SexyMit]

Chicago Bulls tonight also....

[FreeFall]

Problem with hockey is you have to wait until later in the day, as I want 3000 plays before even considering NHL RLM. Once you do have 3000 bets, an RLM of more than 10 cents (i.e., 11 cents or more) is sufficient if the public is over 60% on the other side.

I understand that.

I just have trouble with the change in the lines. As you can see above there is two different values for the line change if you go by the dog or the fav. How do you know which to go by? I also thought if you had 200s in the ML you had to wait for a 20 cent move. But what side of the move has to be 20 cent move for it to count? The fav or the dog?

EDIT;

Another example; Bos Bruins tonight will have a 20 cent move in three more cents. However the Florida Panthers will only have moved 18 cents from +200 to +182. Do both sides have to move 20cents? Or just one?

[FreeFall]

Florida and Lightening are they a play? I get confused when it crosses the 200s