Pixster's Plays

[pixster]

CHI @ SF: U 37, 1 Unit L
The Under never had a chance. Even if the refs wouldn't have given the Bears that gift TD via the questionable "pushing" penalty in the 3rd quarter, the Over was destined. Playing the Under in advance of the SF starting QB announcement was not the right pick given the uncertainty. The Bears got caught up in the uncertainty, too, probably not expecting to face Pumpernickel, Humperdinck, Kaepernick, whomever.

Week 11 Results
5 W - 1 L

Overall
53- 57-3, +33.5 Units

[pixster]

Total climbed to 50...adding 1.5 Units.

HOU @ DET: U 50, 1.5 Units
DET WR Titus Young has been benched for “unacceptable behavior, and ruled inactive for the early game on Thursday. The HOU secondary thanks you, young Titus, as you’ve made their task of covering Calvin Johnson a bit easier. Not that they weren’t up to the challenge, having circled this game on their calendar. But a funny thing happened on the way to the forum…they forgot about the Jaguars. Whoops! Texans d got caught prepping for Thanksgiving.

Facing the Lions, I think we’ll see the top-rated HOU JJ Watt-led defense back in form, the exception being CB Jonathan Joseph who is nursing a hamstring. As for their offense, its unlikely QB Schaub will have another record passing performance. Talk about expending a lot of energy to rally from behind to win a game! Can his arm handle another such outing on a short week? If he were a starting MLB pitcher, it’s like him throwing 125+ pitches for nine full innings, and then attempting to go at it again with just three days rest. If the club’s trainers have anything to say, they’re telling the offensive coordinator to scale back on the passes for the sake of his arm. The go-to option: Arian Foster. A running game equals time off the clock, and the football out of the hands of DET QB Stafford who is in passing modus operandi every game. Which cycles back to the Titus Young situation. And, the bruising hard fought defeat at the hands of the Packers doesn’t do them any favors either.

HOU avg’s 23.5 pts a game on the road. When facing top ten passing d’s, their scoring avg is 22.3 – DET ranks in the top ten. So far this season, only once has HOU scored more than 23 pts against such teams (DEN).

DET’s avg’s 22 pts a game at home. 16.6 is their avg against teams with a defense comparable to HOU’s. Chicago’s loss on MNF gives the Lions some motivation to stay in the playoff hunt. But first, look for their offense to sputter in quarters 1 and 2, something they always seem to do. I may play a 1st half Total depending on the line when it pops out.

[pixster]

HOU @ DET: U 51, 1 Unit
Could this game play out any differently? Its possible. Or maybe its just some entity and/or some embellished info causing excitement for an Over. To be continued.

As for the media, I know ESPN and other football outlets are trouncing HOU's defensive efforts against the Jags last weekend, suggesting that the Texans may already be in a coast-mode playoff-bound mentality. I'm sure the Texans are addressing the matter, because two losses in a row for an elite team is bad for momentum with six weeks left in the season.

[Black Hills]

Excellent write-up and run lately. What's your opinion on the side? Also,like to hear your thoughts on the other games on Thursday. Happy Thanksgiving!

[pixster]

Excellent write-up and run lately. What's your opinion on the side? Also,like to hear your thoughts on the other games on Thursday. Happy Thanksgiving!

Thanks for the compliment, Black Hills. As for a side, I haven't formed a strong opinion. Because with a team like Detroit, almost anything can happen late in the fourth quarter. As we know, the Lions have a tendency to start slow and play catch up. So if I were to play a side, it would be on HOU in the 1st half - depending on the line of course. My concern, however, is how much offensive firepower Schaub and Co. have left after the JAX game.

As for the WAS/DAL matchup, I'm waiting for a 1st half opener...will probably play that if its something I like.

I haven't yet taken an in-depth look at the NE/NYJ game. But I'm sure everyone's looking at this game a lot differently with the Gronk out. For that reason, gonna look between the lines before I lean one way or another....may even wait to do a live in-game play.

Best of luck!

[pixster]

WAS @ DAL (1st Half): WAS +3, 3.5 Units

[pixster]

Alright, 1^st Half spreads are out of the gate…

WAS/DAL
OK, so the 1st half line opener is 3 in favor of DAL. Turns out to be the same # as the full game. How often does that happen? Anyway, I think there’s value here given how badly the Cowboys come out of the shoot.

One look at DAL’s first half point averages tells the story:
Home: 6.8
Road: 7.2

By halftime, it’s safe to say that the Cowboys will have scored a touchdown. Any more points will be above their norm. Can they score more against the Redskins? The better question is, how much scoring will WAS produce against the DAL.

WAS first half point averages:
Road: 16.2
Home: 10.8

Based on these statistics, the probability that WAS will get 14 by halftime is good enough for me. But surely the passing d of the Cowboys can hold the fort? Have you seen these Redskins lately, Tex?! You must be drinkin’ whiskey if you think there’s a bonanza in Dallas.

A quick look at the spread now shows the 1st half line down to 2 1/2

[pixster]

HOU @ DET (1st half): U 26 (hook), 1.5 Units

Analysis parallels my full game writeup for this game.

[pixster]

HOU @ DET (2nd Half): DET +4, 3.5 Units

[pixster]

Det clearly has the momentum. HOU def is on the field, but hasn't shown up allowing the Lions to score above their avg.

2012 2nd Half Stats
DET avgs 12.0
HOU avgs 7.2

By the way things are going in this game, those stats will be up proportionally on both sides probably.

[pixster]

WAS @ DAL (2nd Half): DAL -6.5, 2 Units

Kinda see the Boys making an decent effort playing catch up as they tend to do in the 2nd half.

[pixster]

NE @ NYJ (2nd half): NE pk, 5 units

[pixster]

Goin' w/the NE pk because Belichick wants to win, lol

[pixster]

ATL @ TB (1st Half): ATL -0.5, 1.5 Units
The Falcons went up against a formidable defensive unit last week (ARI), and almost choked. This week, Matty Ice should have a much easier time facing a team with one of the league's worst pass d - Tampa Bay.
17.6 first half pts is ATL’s road avg. Tampa at home: 12.8

ATL @ TB: 0 51, 3 Units
Both the Falcons and the Bucs have been on a scoring tear averaging 23.0 and 34.3, respectively, in their last three games. Note that the bulk of the Bucs pts have come in the second half.

SEA @ MIA: SEA -3, 2 Units
These two teams are trending in opposite directions. For the Seahawks to be taken seriously on the road, this is a good game for them to prove it. The Dolphins are in a tailspin, and it doesn’t get any better for them next week when the Patriots come to town.

49ers @ NO (1st Half): 0 24, 1 Unit
Last three games, the Saints have been avg’ing 21 per 1st half. They’ve been allowing their opp 9 pts in the same period.
14.7 is SF’s 1st half scoring avg. Yes, SF has held their opponents to 4.7 avg points by halftime, but I think Brees will find a way to get beyond that mark, especially at home.

DEN @ KC (1st half): U 21.5, 1.5 Units
KC’s offense is offensive, negatively speaking. Only Philly is worse.
After the first two quarters of play, 7 points is the norm for the Chiefs. Interestingly, the Chiefs’ passing d is the polar opposite quietly doing a respectable job. Not what Manning wants to hear, because he may now have to resort to an air campaign now that RB McGahee is out. Since Denver’s 1st half road avg is 8.2, the Chiefs may be in a position to saddle the Broncos a little bit - at least initially.

ST @ ARI: U 37, 1 Unit
Simply put, ARI’s top-five defense is more than capable of snuffing out Bradford and anything the rest of the low-scoring Rams offense throws (and runs) at them. Just ask the Falcons. Since the Cards don’t score much themselves due to their own sorry offense, I see a decent chance the total going Under.

[mbcoutinho]

ATL @ TB (1st Half): ATL -0.5, 1.5 Units
The Falcons went up against a formidable defensive unit last week (ARI), and almost choked. This week, Matty Ice should have a much easier time facing a team with one of the league's worst pass d - Tampa Bay.
17.6 first half pts is ATL’s road avg. Tampa at home: 12.8

ATL @ TB: 0 51, 3 Units
Both the Falcons and the Bucs have been on a scoring tear averaging 23.0 and 34.3, respectively, in their last three games. Note that the bulk of the Bucs pts have come in the second half.

SEA @ MIA: SEA -3, 2 Units
These two teams are trending in opposite directions. For the Seahawks to be taken seriously on the road, this is a good game for them to prove it. The Dolphins are in a tailspin, and it doesn’t get any better for them next week when the Patriots come to town.

49ers @ NO (1st Half): 0 24, 1 Unit
Last three games, the Saints have been avg’ing 21 per 1st half. They’ve been allowing their opp 9 pts in the same period.
14.7 is SF’s 1st half scoring avg. Yes, SF has held their opponents to 4.7 avg points by halftime, but I think Brees will find a way to get beyond that mark, especially at home.

DEN @ KC (1st half): U 21.5, 1.5 Units
KC’s offense is offensive, negatively speaking. Only Philly is worse.
After the first two quarters of play, 7 points is the norm for the Chiefs. Interestingly, the Chiefs’ passing d is the polar opposite quietly doing a respectable job. Not what Manning wants to hear, because he may now have to resort to an air campaign now that RB McGahee is out. Since Denver’s 1st half road avg is 8.2, the Chiefs may be in a position to saddle the Broncos a little bit - at least initially.

ST @ ARI: U 37, 1 Unit
Simply put, ARI’s top-five defense is more than capable of snuffing out Bradford and anything the rest of the low-scoring Rams offense throws (and runs) at them. Just ask the Falcons. Since the Cards don’t score much themselves due to their own sorry offense, I see a decent chance the total going Under.

Nice thread (record), first time tailling, if you do well on the first games, will be with you on the late games also.

BOL, pal. Lets cash em

[cotes17]

yeah nice record man. i'll tail too

[cotes17]

wow how the fuk does he miss that FG

[pixster]

CAR @ PHI (2nd Half): O 21, 4 Units

[pixster]

HOU @ DET (1st half): U 26 (hook), 1.5 Units L
HOU @ DET: U 49, 3 Units L
HOU @ DET: U 50, 1.5 Units L
HOU @ DET: U 51, 1 Unit L
HOU @ DET (2nd Half): DET +4, 3.5 Units L
WAS @ DAL (1st Half): WAS +3, 3.5 Units W
WAS @ DAL (2nd Half): DAL -6.5, 2 Units W
NE @ NYJ (2nd half): NE pk, 5 units L
ATL @ TB (1st Half): ATL -0.5, 1.5 Units L
ATL @ TB: 0 51, 3 Units L
SEA @ MIA: SEA -3, 2 Units L
49ers @ NO (1st Half): 0 24, 1 Unit W
DEN @ KC (1st half): U 21.5, 1.5 Units W
ST @ ARI: U 37, 1 Unit L
CAR @ PHI (2nd Half): O 21, 4 Units W
5 W - 10 L, -11 Units

Bad week for the Pixster. Fortunately, only four losing weeks on the year. Here's hoping that week 13 won't be unlucky.

[jinxpro13]

you always rape primtime games

[pixster]

Recap on some of last Sunday's games in the Pix L column...

ATL/TB
3 missed field goals! WTF.

SEA/MIA
The Hawks made a statement alright...they can soar at home, but on the road they're still grounded.

ST/ARI
Turnovers doomed Arizona. Were the Cardinals playing the Rams, or were they playing themselves?

HOU/DET
Looks like HOU's d is showing some z, as in zzzzzz

[pixster]

you always rape primtime games

seems that way...I think it has something to do with having a heightened awareness of those games. Wish I could easily transfer that over to the other games....I'm tryin' though.

[pixster]

wow how the fuk does he miss that FG

Just before the kick to end the 1st half, Matt Bryant (placekicker for ATL), calls a timeout. I've seen head coaches inadvertently ice their own kickers, but to ice yourself?! What did he call a timeout for anyway? To go to the sidelines and find out the best way to miss the field goal attempt?

[jinxpro13]

seems that way...I think it has something to do with having a heightened awareness of those games. Wish I could easily transfer that over to the other games....I'm tryin' though.

i hear you. i kill my props on primetime have harder time on sunday
gl wit a great week pixster

[pixster]

NO @ ATL: NO +3.5, 3 Units
In order to have a shot at the playoffs, the Saints have to win nearly all of their remaining games. Its one game at a time for New Orleans, and it starts in Atlanta on TNF. The Saints have won the last three head-to head matchups at Atlanta, each by three points. So, it goes without saying that they have what it takes to shoot down the Falcons at the Georgia Dome.

The knee-jerk reaction to ATL playing at home is that they are practically invincible there. But a closer look at their home W’s shows that they have only won by a margin of: 6, 2, 3, 6, and 4, respectively.

Avg points scored by New Orleans on the road is 28.2, while 24.4 is Atlanta’s at home avg. In the last three games, the Saints are giving up an avg of 25.0 to their oppponents, while Atlanta is giving up 24.3 in the same time frame. ATL has won their last two games by a combined five points; not a shining example of a 10 -1 team. All indications support a close game, field goal margin-like. I’ll take Brees and the Saints to cover.

[pixster]

SEA @ CHI: CHI -3, 2 Units
SEA and CHI have something in common: when playin’ at home, it’s like Superman in Metropolis. But on the road, they play as if they’ve been slipped some Kryptonite. C’mon, if the Hawks failed in Miami, how can they succeed in Chicago against a better team?

Yes, the Bears came out somewhat wounded after last week’s contest against the Vikings, but they’re a tough resilient bunch; a virtual firewall in the Windy City.

Yeah, the Seahawks connect in their own hometown – Seattle. But once the operating system goes wireless, its Beast-mode goes into Safe Mode without Networking. Drive issues follow, and then the hardware ultimately crashes. Reboot Seattle, else you might be deleted by something grizzly in Chicago.

[FatalFunnel]

Tailing brotha

[MOONCRICKET]

SEA @ CHI: CHI -3, 2 Units
SEA and CHI have something in common: when playin’ at home, it’s like Superman in Metropolis. But on the road, they play as if they’ve been slipped some Kryptonite. C’mon, if the Hawks failed in Miami, how can they succeed in Chicago against a better team?

Yes, the Bears came out somewhat wounded after last week’s contest against the Vikings, but they’re a tough resilient bunch; a virtual firewall in the Windy City.

Yeah, the Seahawks connect in their own hometown – Seattle. But once the operating system goes wireless, its Beast-mode goes into Safe Mode without Networking. Drive issues follow, and then the hardware ultimately crashes. Reboot Seattle, else you might be deleted by something grizzly in Chicago.

with sea road woes spitting the bit late vs mia did little to convince anyone they can get it done in chi - with chi blowing out minn (another winning team) one would think the line opens higher than -4.5 and that with likelihood of 2 suspended corners - i dont care where lines move - only where they open and for chi to cover i think they should have and easily could have opened at -6 or 7 - the game still gets played on the field but a team that is atrocious on the road should be getting more than 3.5 so i think sea actually wins outright with scoring by their D

[pixster]

CLE @ OAK: U 40, 2 Units
100% chance of precipitation with strong winds forecast for game time. Last five games against opponents: CLE's avg 15, OAK 21. Didn't research weather records on those individual past games going back five weeks, but I'm assuming all, if not most, were played in better conditions then are expected in the Frisco area this weekend. I happen to reside near the Bay Area, and we've been advised of adverse weather conditions from now through the weekend.

Aside from Mother Nature, I like the way CLE's defense has been stepping up lately holding teams to 17 pts (avg) last five weeks. The Raiders may get McFadden back, so a ground attack may be in the offing to counter CLE's own.

[pixster]

CLE/OAK, o/u
Books now @ 38, down from 40 just a few hours ago.

[pixster]

ARI @ NYJ: O 36, 2 Units
Jets are good for 21.3 pts at home. Cards season avg is 14.6 away, but as of the last three games, they've been getting 17.7 (two of their last three have been on the road with Lindley at starting QB).

Games involving the Jets have gone 37 or more points in all but two games this year (34 vs. SF, 35 vs. Seattle).

[pixster]

CAR @ KC: U 41, 1.5 Units
Can't see how any player, on either side of the ball, is gonna be up for this.

The Chiefs are already the lowest scoring team in the league. Their avg is 9.3 pts per game (last three games) while 21.7 is what Carolina is putting up (same time frame). Both teams do field a decent pass d, but as I said earlier, don't know if there's gonna be a lot of offense from either side to begin with.

[pixster]

TB @ DEN (1st half): TB +4.5, 1.5 Units
TB @ DEN: TB +7.5, 1 unit
The Bucs haven't lost by more than 7 pts all year. The Broncos and the Bucs are almost identical in scoring proficiency per game, ranking 3rd and 4th respectively. The Bucs are actually better in this dept in the 1st half.

[pixster]

ARI @ NYJ (2nd Half): U 17, 1 Unit
CAR @ KC (2nd Half): O 21, 1 Unit

[sbrhgary]

Really like this pick.
I'm adding det/ind o26 and sea/chi -1.5

ARI @ NYJ (2nd Half): U 17, 1 Unit
CAR @ KC (2nd Half): O 21, 1 Unit