Pixster's Plays

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DAL @ PHI (1st Half) U 23 (bought hook), 1 Unit

Both teams are a disgrace and an embarrassment to the NFL. The only thing the Cowboys and Eagles are capable of these days is a lackluster performance.

1st Half Stats (scoring offense avg. pts.)
DAL 6.6 (Road)
PHI 7.0 (Home)

Through it all, DAL still sports a decent defense. PHI's d is not great, but its not horrendous either. Let's see if these trends hold up for this game.

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Gonna make a couple of 2nd Half picks...waiting for the lines

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OAK @ BAL (2nd Half): BAL -1, 1.5 Units

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DEN @ CAR (2nd Half): DEN -0.5, 1.5 Units

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DEN @ CAR (1st half): CAR +3, 2 Units L
DEN @ CAR (1st half) U 24 (bought hook), 2 Units P
TEN @ MIA: O 44, 1 Unit L
OAK @ BAL (2nd Half): BAL -1, 1.5 W
DEN @ CAR (2nd Half): DEN -0.5, 1.5 Units W
NYJ @ SEA (1st Half): SEA -3.5, 1.5 units W
DAL @ PHI (1st Half) U 23 (bought hook), 1 Unit W

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+9 Units since last Thursday. Nice haul compared to last week's mess. Only 3 losing weekends this season. If I put in a play on tonight' game, it'll be a small unit pix. Stay tuned.

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HOU @ CHI (1st Half) O 18 (bought hook), 2 Units

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Will inclement weather be a factor in this game? Maybe, but I think there will be enough scoring done; Houston alone avg's 18.3 pts in the 1st half.

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HOU @ CHI (2nd half): CHI -2.5, 4 Units

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KC @ PIT
IMO, one of the best angles in this game has nothing to do with this game at all. It's next week's game between PIT and BAL. And also, the game two weeks from that when PIT plays BAL again! How can the Steelers not be thinking about those match-ups. The question is, "How much will it affect their play tonight?" If you're in the camp that it won't, take one look at yesterday's STL vs. SF game. The 49ers were double digit favs over the Rams. But as we all know, the game ended up in a tie. Were the 49ers caught looking ahead to their upcoming game against the Bears? The Chiefs are no Rams, but it happens.
Speaking of the Chiefs, many point to PIT assistant Todd Haley as wanting to "pile it on" his former team. Buy what about his former KC players? Might they want to exact an "upset" themselves? Of course, wanting an upset and getting the upset are two different things. But its a psychological motivator.
The weather. For game time, there's a chance of cold light rain. It actually burned me in last night's game (HOU/CHI). As did Cutler's freakin' concussion. But that's another story. I'll revisit that next week when concussed Cutler visits concussed Smith next MNF. Anyway, the freezing weather (wind chills) will be a factor in tonight's game. To what degree Daniel Fahrenheit might have said had he been a football fan speaking in terms of the ATS instead of temp speak: the climate might be right for a cover. My pick coming up...

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KC @ PIT: KC +13, 3 Units

When 85% of the public is on a side, Vegas holds its collective breath. When double digit lines precedes a nationally televised game, New York holds its collective breath. In other words, the gambling and media barons/corps stand to lose a lot of money (wagers & TV revenue, respectively) if the Steelers clobber the Chiefs all game long.

I'm fading the public on this one because I kinda' think professional oddsmakers know what they're doing. And they are right most of the time. They are not in it to lose money. So like I have said before, if I lose this one, so does Vegas - and I won't feel so bad about the loss. I have also said that in the world of the Pittsburgh Steelers, I've had the sense of something shady. Some of you may know what I'm talking about...in the recent past, they've inexplicably lost games that they were supposed to have won handily. Perhaps tonight's the game Mother Nature and the gambling gods give KC a chance. Or not. That's why its called gambling, and I enjoy it. On a personal level, it turns an otherwise dull game into something worth watching. Good luck, fellas.

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Like that!

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KC @ PIT: KC +13, 3 Units W

And the winners are (other than the Steelers):
Vegas barons
Media moguls
Everyone who played the Balt "trap" angle
Everyone who played the weather

I swear I didn't overthink this pick.

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Results from Last Two Weeks
Week 9
KC @ SD (1st Half) SD -4.5, 3.5 Units W
DAL @ ATL: DAL +4, 2 Units L
DAL @ ATL (2nd Half): U 23, 4.5 Units W
DAL @ ATL (2nd Half) DAL: +3, 2 Units L
PIT @ NYG: NYG -3, 2 Units L
PHI @ NO (1st half): O 26, 5 Units L
PHI @ NO (2nd Half): NO +1.5, 10 Units L

2 W – 5 L, -13 Units

Week 10
IND @ JAX (1st Half): U 21, 4.5 Units W
IND @ JAX (Full game): IND -3, 2 Units W
DEN @ CAR (1st half): CAR +3, 2 Units L
DEN @ CAR (1st half) U 24 (bought hook), 2 Units P
DEN @ CAR (2nd Half): DEN -0.5, 1.5 Units W
TEN @ MIA: O 44, 1 Unit L
OAK @ BAL (2nd Half): BAL -1, 1.5 W
NYJ @ SEA (1st Half): SEA -3.5, 1.5 units W
DAL @ PHI (1st Half) U 23 (bought hook), 1 Unit W
HOU @ CHI (1st Half) O 18 (bought hook), 2 Units L
HOU @ CHI (2nd half): CHI -2.5, 4 Units L
KC @ PIT: KC +13, 3 Units W

7 W – 4 L – 1 P, +6 Units

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Unit Amount
5 – 12.5 units: 12-5-0
0.5-4.5 units: 34-51-3

Overall
46 - 56 - 3, +22.5 units

by Days of the Week
Thursday: 11-2
Monday: 9-9
Sunday: Everything Else

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OK, week 10 is done.

End of the Regular Season Objective
be at .500 or over
be at +40 or more units

Gonna start immediately with:
BAL @ PIT: BAL +4 (hook), 2 Units

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BAL @ PIT
(SNF) Unless Big Ben is pulling a WWF-like stunt with the injury, the Ravens chances of covering the spread obviously improve if Roethlisberger can't make it (or is less than 100%). Its an SNF game, so the Ravens will play it up for the nationally televised show.

MIA @ BUF
(TNF) Working on a pick...stay tuned

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MIA @ BUF: BUF -1 (hook), 3 units

Early bets are on BUF, probably a reaction to MIA’s recent loss to the Titans. Look for the MIA hype-machine to start rolling in.

My pick is on BUF (full game). Once the 1^st half line comes out, I may go in with another unit play depending on the spread. Staying away from O/U on this one. OK, where should I begin...

First, MIA's loss to TEN is not the main reason why I'm going with BUF. Heck, BUF has lost to TEN, too. There are other factors involved as I'll point out. Through 10 weeks, BUF has only had 3 home games thus far. I’m sure they’re eager to start a home-field advantage mentality for the rest of the season. The Bills are built as a cold-season team. The Dolphins come from the tropics, so a visit to the tundra is something they’re not so eager about. Regarding that MIA/TEN game: if MIA at home can only score 3 pts. against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, then how are they all of a sudden going to score a bunch in near freezing against a team who scores a bunch themselves nearly everywhere? The Dolphin’s confidence level will probably be as low as the game time temp.

Speaking of climates, MIA QB Tannehill and RB Bush hail from warm parts of the country. They’ll be met with a “cold” reception in upstate New York. Tannehill is a rookie, and will probably not fair as good as BUF QB Fitzpatrick, who happens to have a lot of playing time in that part of the country going back to his college days at Harvard.

MIA plays SEA the following week, then New England after that, followed by San Francisco. Wow! The Dolphins have a lot on their minds.
BUF’s RB Jackson is ruled out for the game due to a concussion. Good news for MIA? Not when you realize that BUF’s other RB, C.J. Spiller, has gained more rushing yards than MIA’s Bush. Oh, did I mention that Fitz has thrown for more passing yards than Mr. Tan?

Will global warming save the Dolphins? Or will the Bills give thrills in the chills? We’ll see. This is the NFL, and on any given…

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MIA @ BUF (1st Half): Pending. No line yet, though PK is the early indication.

In their three home games thus far, the Bills have had the lead in two of those games at the half. In the other, they were behind by only 1 pt.

1st Half Pt. Stats (avg's)
BUF 18.3 at home (against teams possessing the same caliber pass d as MIA)
MIA 12.0 on the road (the Dolphins have scored more than 18 pts only once this year home & away)

Pix lean: Buffalo

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MIA @ BUF (1st Half): BUF -0.5, 4 units

Live 2nd Half Pick game time decision.

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MIA/BUF
Line now at -3, 1st half is -1

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MIA @ BUF (1st Half): BUF -0.5, 4 units W

No 2nd Half Pick.

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MIA @ BUF: BUF -1 (hook), 3 units W

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MIA @ BUF (1st Half): BUF -0.5, 4 units W
MIA @ BUF: BUF -1 (hook), 3 units W

Tonight 2 W - 0 L, +7 Units

Having a banner year on TNF: 13-2
Can't wait for next Thursday - 3 games worth of PIX!!! Hope the W's continue.

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MIA/BUF (Summary)

The Fin's didn't lose the game this evening...they lost it last Sunday when they lost to the Titans. As of this past Monday, I had a strong feeling MIA was not going to recover from that debacle. That loss was no aberration. Then the moment I started to look into the stats for this MIA/BUF matchup (see my writeup on this game in an earlier post), I knew the Dolphins were in trouble. And, even though BUF lost to NE, that game gave the Bills confidence and momentum heading into the game vs. MIA. Nothing to overthink there.

MIA now faces three very tough(er) opponents...their season is pretty much done. BUF, on the other hand, has a brighter outlook playing 4 of 6 at home.

For those who tailed the PIX, congrats on the win(s). I know a lot of you were nervous going with BUF, and probably more nervous watching the game esp. toward the end. But if any of you follow hype/trends, then last week you spotted the end of one (Dolphins) and the beginning of another (BUF), which improved the odds for a favorable outcome tonight.

Did the same thing for the upcoming BAL/PIT game. The moment Big Ben went down on MNF, I immediately jumped on BAL +3.5...bought hook to +4. (see post after MNF). A little while later, that line was gone forever. Needless to say, I'm looking forward to another favorable outcome on SNF. See y'all in a few days for the early games.

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Unit Amount Update
5 – 12.5 units: 12-5-0
0.5-4.5 units: 36-51-3

Overall
48 - 56 - 3, +29.5 units

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PHI @ WAS: U 44, 1.5 Units

Anemic. That’s what both offenses have been as of late, esp. Philly. In the last three games, these two teams have developed into low scoring masters. For any team saddled with that distinction, breaking a trend like that overnight is difficult to say the least.

PHI
Doubtful Foles will do that much better than Vick. Defensively, Eagles are still relevant enough to keep Griffin in check.

WAS
The Skins d against the run ranks in the top ten, but against the pass it’s one of the worst. That really won’t matter facing Foles. WAS faces DAL on Thursday, which also adds to the likelihood of another lackluster performance.

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ARI @ ATL: ARI +10 (hook) 1.5 Units

When I first saw the line, my first reaction was to stay away. But as usual, I paid a revisit to question why the big spread. Oh, that’s right. The Atlanta Falcons were undefeated prior to last week’s matchup vs. the Saints. Now they’re playing the lowly red birds from Arizona. Easy beat down, says Mr. Public, gonna pull the trigger.

Hey, Joe. Where you going with that gun in your hand? There's a little publicized fact you should know about : the Cards have a top five pass d, almost as good as Frisco, Chi, Hou, and Sea. The Falcons trail in this dept ranking below Arizona.

OK, so ATL will still put a hurt on, especially at home, right? Let's see...this season at home, the Falcons haven’t beaten any of their opponents by more than 6 points (includes OAK and Carolina). And that’s with a healthy Falcon lineup. One look at that lineup now reveals an interesting injury situation to some prime players. What can’t be ignored is that ATL will need to heal some of those players quick because they gotta be looking ahead at next week’s divisional matchup against the surging Bucs in Tampa.

The key here, of course, is the performance of ARI’s QB. If he, and the team, can keep the turnovers to a minimum, there's a very good possibility they can keep the game relatively close…just ask the Panthers and Raiders who were 7 and 10 pt underdogs, respectively, but covered and actually had a chance at winning in the waning minutes.

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CHI @ SF: U 37, 1 Unit

MNF
Was hoping for 38, but I'll go with the under nonetheless. That 7 1/2 line is interesting, but I'll not go that route for now.

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PHI @ WAS: U 44 W
ARI @ ATL: ARI +10 (hook) W

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SNF
BAL @ PIT: BAL +4 (hook) W
(Pix was made right after MNF game, and before line closed ala the Roethlisberger injury (see post #366)

Today PIX Recap
PHI @ WAS: U 44 W
ARI @ ATL: ARI +10 (hook) W
BAL @ PIT: BAL +4 (hook) W

Week 11 TNF - SNF Tally
5 W - O L

One more game to go...MNF!!!

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CHI @ SFThe line is now at 34 1/2

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What to do with my free time this upcomin' week? I gotta go to work - cappin' the three games comin' up on TNF, of course. Although, I don't want to spend too much time studying each game. Perhaps doing some reading, watching some NFL Network programming, checking stats, etc. As for gut feelings, I don't like to go there. Locks? I don't believe in them. Hype? I attempt to stay far away. I don't play teasers, ML's, nor do I make after game excuses such as, "It was the right play even though it lost." The phrase is an oxymoron for a reason. Systems? Have none. Instead, I like to think of it as getting, or trying to get, in the zone.

Back to reality, lol. The effort this week (and for the rest of the season) is to: improve on my 13 - 2 TNF record, get above .500 on my overall pix, and reach my +40 unit goal, which I'm closing in on rapidly. And, with my extended fam comin' over for Thanksgiving - they are huge football fans, too - means I have a chance of collecting some instant cash on a little friendly wager here and there. It's all in fun, which is how I approach all my pix in order to keep it from turning me into a cRaZy obSessiVe. Good luck to all, and may you feast!

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TNF Game 1
HOU @ DET

Pick: Pending
Hint...its on the Total (Full game and maybe 1st half). I have a bead on this one, but holding back the play a day or two keeping watch on any movement. A fav direction (according to what I think is going to happen in this game) the later the pick...and visaversa.

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HOU @ DET: U 49, 3 Units

Thought I would hold off on this pick, but gotta go with it now based on the latest news out of DET. Lions WR Titus Young will be inactive for Thursday's game, according to ESPN. Once news of this becomes widespread, it may affect the Total, so I'm jumping on it now. Was hoping the public would push the opening total of 48 1/2 higher, and it looked like it was going in that direction. But now, that scenario is not likely. On the chance that the Total does go up, I may add more units. We shall see. Complete writeup in a day or two.