Pixster's Plays

[pixster]

Seattle Seahawk's Building a Dynasty?

You'd think this point at issue comes from Hawk territory. But instead it was recently brought up in an interview by none other than 9ers TE Vernon Davis. Seems he's not the only one to think that SEA is the team to beat this year and beyond. Many NFL insiders are starting to catch on to this idea, too; simply Google "Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII." Based on my observations, I originally came to this conclusion over 4 1/2 months ago only a few days after the last SB.

A follow-up question that has been floating around..."Are the Seahawks Over-hyped?" Gimme a freakin' break! That sounds more like a worried Vegas in spin-mode.

[pixster]

NFL Reg. Season
Week 1
NE @ BUF: BUF +7.5, 1 Unit

Training camp, pre-season, and other variables yet to play out, but I couldn't resist the temptation given the circumstances.

[pixster]

Pixster's Summary & Highlights
2011 - 2012, 2012 - 2013

Super Bowl XLVI
Giants vs. Patriots: U 53.5, 2 units W

Super Bowl XLVII
BAL vs. SF: BAL +5, 7 Units W
BAL vs. SF: BAL +4.5, 6 units W
BAL vs. SF: BAL +4, 5 Units W

2012 – 2013 regular Season
Thursday Night Football
16 W – 10 L

Units
Individual wagers of 5 – 12.5 units: 21 W -11 L – 0
Total units won: 71.5 (before juice)

[pixster]

2013- 2014 NFL Season
Week 1

SEA @ CAR: CAR +4, 2 Units

Circa Feb 5, 2013: I'm on the ‘Hawks to be a strong XVLIII contender.

Since then, seems that public opinion has also grown keen on Seattle. Despite all that, Seattle is not invincible and will assuredly suffer a handful of losses along the way. Needless to say, Seattle does plays exceedingly well at home, so most of their losses will be on the road if recent history is any indicator.

Against Carolina, the Seahawks will play its first regular game – a road game. SEA will face a Panthers team that finished a strong 5 - 1 to end the 2012 season. Seven of Carolina's nine losses in 2012 came by six points or less. The Panther’s really aren’t a bad team and they’re out to prove doubters wrong by coming out the gate psyched and with determined purpose.

One of the banes of football existence has been West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast for a 10 a.m. PT start time. In three seasons under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 0-3 in road openers, they're 8-16 overall on the road and they're 1-4 in games that kick off at 10 a.m. PT. Seattle play the 9ers the following week, and may be in an unfavorable position if they become mentally preoccupied with that. But if Seattle can pull off a road victory in hard-hitting fashion, they’ll be the ones proving people wrong.

[pixster]

NE @ BUF: BUF +10.5, 2.5 Units

Had this game circled before preseason. Even went as far as locking it back in June (BUF +7.5 for 1 unit). May have been a bit premature, but I still like the Bills for the same reasons as before. So, went back in this time with 2.5 more units on BUF +10.5

New England
The Patriots are doing everything possible to pretend they have nothing to worry about. Keep pretending, because with most of their offensive talent gone, New England is suddenly vulnerable for the first time in years. If the dynamic duo of Belichick and Brady are really the brain and braun above all others, then we won’t see NE skip a beat.

Buffalo
With exception to their improved running game and new QB Manuel, BUF on paper is a reading that could use more desirable adverbs. But most of that's from last year’s paper. It’s been recycled. Buffalo’s looking to write a new chapter, and what better way to make an impression than against a division foe.

[pixster]

Thursday Night Football
BAL @ DEN: DEN -7, 1.5 units

Is the revenge factor prospect partly responsible for DEN opening at -9? Suppose we eliminate the revenge factor:

2012 DEN
5-2-1 ATS wins at home
Regular season beating of the Ravens in BAL 34 -17

“Moot” some would say pointing to the fact that, in the Divisional playoffs, the Ravens defeated the Broncos in Denver. But if we take away that last Flacco to Jones 70-yard pass, there's a good chance DEN wins by 7. Call it hypothetical cherry picking, call it what you will. One thing’s for sure...out the gate, NFL’s defending champs are not convincing enough in the eyes of the oddsmakers as the line opened at 9.
Line's now lingering at 7.5, so looks like plenty of other people are challenging the notion and giving the Ravens some credit.

2012 BAL
3-4-1 ATS losses on the road
2 W – 5 L to finish the regular season
Riding the Ray Lewis thing

So, can BAL rise to the occasion again? Not going to be easy as they’re missing some key personnel including TE Pitta. DEN has a few player issues, too, but they've also made some good improvements.

In short, its hard to ignore the great run Denver is coming off of despite coming up short in the playoffs.

NFL Season's Opening Game in Primetime
A combination of storylines, close matchups, and ratings is how this league goes about its business. Kicking off the new season, this primetime game should have its share of interesting moments up until DEN pulls away and covers while the Ravens struggle to catch their collective rocky-mountain breath.

Note: Early last season, the Broncos struggled before going on a roll. 1st halves were particularly slow for DEN. Should that be that case this evening, a 2nd half pick may be the ticket for some additional action.

[pixster]

BAL @ DEN: 2nd Half DEN -6, 1.5 Units

All or nothing.

[pixster]

BAL @ DEN: DEN -7, 1.5 units W
BAL @ DEN: 2nd Half DEN -6, 1.5 Units W
A game triumphantly scripted by the NFL football gods. Glad I was on the same page, cause it sucks to lose.

2 W - 0 L, +3 Units (before juice), 100%

[pixster]

OAK @ IND: IND -10.5, 1 Unit

OAK is traveling to Indianapolis to meet the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium, yet these two teams are going in different directions. The Colts are heading the right way. The Dis-aRaiders on the other hand...

As one insider put it, “Theses are dark days (in Oakland), even by Black Hole standards.” Gone is the glimmer of hope the Raiders had in the off-season after shaking things up in the front office and in player personnel. The pre-season revealed the Silver and Black's true colors: ash grey and HEX#000000.

Think Run DMC is going to save the day, or that Terrell Pryor is going to outgun Andrew Luck? Think the Colts want to be embarrassed on their turf opening day to a team whose starting offensive line and quarterbacks are considered the weakest position group in the league?

But what’s to prevent a back door cover? Placing a real horseshoe over the Colts locker room door should do it.

[pixster]

GB @ SF (2nd Half): GB +3.5, 1.5 Units

In the first half, GB has done more with less time. Eliminate the turnovers, and GB would probably be ahead. Close game; will probably be won by 3 pts. by either side
.

[pixster]

NYG @ DAL (2nd Half): 0 23.5, 2.5 Units

[pixster]

Week 1 Results To Date
TNF - SNF
NE @ BUF: BUF +7.5, 1 Unit W
NE @ BUF: BUF +10.5, 2.5 Units W
BAL @ DEN: DEN -7, 1.5 units W
BAL @ DEN: 2nd Half DEN -6, 1.5 Units W
SEA @ CAR: CAR +4, 2 Units L
OAK @ IND: IND -10.5, 1 Unit L
GB @ SF (2nd Half): GB +3.5, 1.5 Units L
NYG @ DAL (2nd Half): 0 23.5, 2.5 Units W

+4.5 Units (before juice)

MNF Pick Pending

[pixster]

PHI @ WAS: U 53, 1 Unit

The focus is on Washington's run game and a lot of Philly three and out's

[pixster]

Gotta imagine the second game will be the same as the early game's script...
Comeback = points a plenty

HOU @ SD (2nd Half): HOU - 6.5, 1 unit
HOU @ SD (2nd Half): O 22.5, 1.5 Units

[pixster]

Started Week 1 on a good note, and ended it on a good note.

On the night:

PHI @ WAS: U 53, 1 Unit L
HOU @ SD (2nd Half): HOU - 6.5, 1 unit W
HOU @ SD (2nd Half): O 22.5, 1.5 Units W

Week 1 Tally
7 W - 4 L, +6 units

All units from here on in will be expressed as "before juice".

Already working on two big plays next week:
NYJ @ NE
DEN @ NYG

Stay tuned...

[pixster]

Week 2, TNF

NYJ @ NE: NYJ +13.5, 3 Units

Reason 1: Its primetime TV. In one of the biggest NFL markets, the "playbook" calls for keeping viewers tuned in as long as possible. Exciting games from beginning to end do that, not blowouts.

Reason 2: New NE injuries (Amendola, Vereen, Sudfeld) limit an already depleted O. Will revisit this game at halftime to check in on the choreography.

[pixster]

DEN @ NYG: ???

2012 - The Broncos started the season 5 of 6 games losing at half time (a 4 pt lead over the Raiders was the only game they were ahead). After their bye in Week 7, the Broncos were only behind once at the half the rest of the year. As for the Giants, they lost to DAL in Week 1 but regrouped with several week's of strong performances thereafter.

In most cases, Week 1 games are hardly indicative of things to come. But in the DEN/NYG scheme of things i.e Manning Bowl, there's a clear signal of anticipation and expectation.

Anticipation: brother vs. brother, a close match from beginning to end
Expectation: slow start, ending with a point scoring frenzy

Pick pending the 1st half line opener. Another play possible on this game at half time if 2nd half line and/or O/U look trendy.

[pixster]

DAL @ KC: KC – 2.5, 1.5 Units (5Dimes)

It's one of the more intriguing lines this week.

A year ago, KC as a fav vs. DAL would’ve been unfathomable. So what gives? Is it that former Philly coach Reid knows a thing or two about how to handle the Cowboys? Is it the Chiefs recent declawing of the Jaguars? Does wealthy Jerry Jones owe the more wealthy Hunt family a favor? Or, could it simply be that Kansas City’s d currently ranks #1 while Dallas’ d ranks near the very bottom? Pause. Laughter. Left-side of brain kicks in…it’s only week 1, for crying out loud.

Fact remains, KC is still fav’d. I doubt that Joe Public knows what the current defensive rankings are - so that's probably not the reason. Argument: The Chiefs were somewhat of good team all along that just needed to eliminate a nasty QB and coaching situation. And finally: Is this the beginning of a winning trend for the Chiefs, or the return of an all too familiar DAL choke? The drama mounts…part two of this game (2nd half) may also be worth pick consideration.

[pixster]

MIA @ IND: MIA ML +130, 2 Units

Could’ve went w/ MIA +3, but in this one, I actually like the Fish outright over the Equine.
Almost 80% of the public is on IND. I’m curious; because didn’t the Colts just come awfully close to losing against OAK? Meanwhile, MIA played well (defense esp) in their defeat of CLE.

The Dolphins and Colts are currently on the opposite ends of the stat spectrum (MIA > IND), which prompted the Colts owner to go public on Twitter “DEMAND”ing more from his team, esp. Luck’s protection. MIA’s already showing a willingness to pass rush five to get the job done. Looks like IND has more work to do. Hopefully Irsay’s comments don’t have a detrimental effect on his team…as in the added stress on Pagano. This man’s illness is in remission, give him a break. You don’t have Arians around anymore to save the day.

[pixster]

NYJ @ NE (2nd Half): NYJ +4, 1.5 Units (5Dimes)

Once again, all or nothing. Bet vs. Vegas, not the game. It's all about TV ratings!

[pixster]

NYJ @ NE: NYJ +13.5, 3 Units W
NYJ @ NE (2nd Half): NYJ +4, 1.5 Units W

Tack it on!

9 W - 4 L, +10.5 units

Patriot Fan Base Perspective
Game summary can be told mainly in the first stage of the five stages of grief: Denial

The remaining four stages:
Anger
Bargaining
Depression
Acceptance

Even though the Patriots won, NE's fanbase are in DENIAL: "Patriots won! That's all that matters."
Anger: Damn! If only it wasn't raining. We would have clobbered 'em.
Bargaining:We'll continue cheering on our team if it means sure victory the next 15 games.
Depression: WTF
Acceptance: Dynasty over. It's only money.

[pixster]

STL @ ATL: STL +6, 2 Units
Of their eight home games last year, ATL won by more the 6 pts only twice.
Rams’ d is bad ass, just ask the 9ers. Sure, the Falcons are tough at home, and could conceivably win by a touchdown if Matty Ice gets a lot of opportunities throwing downfield. But STL led the NFC in sacks last year, and they're already off to a good start in that category this year. Moreover, the Rams have not allowed a sack for the third straight game going back to last season. That's a good indicator that this game might very well be decided by a field goal.

SD @ PHI (1^st Half): PHI -4, 1.5 Units
San Diego is traveling to the East Coast for an early game. A potentially slow start for SD + a potentially fast start for PHI = good potential for an Eagle first half cover.

DEN @ NYG (1^st Half): NYG +4, 1.5 Units
Little brother and team want that quick start to control the tempo of the game before Denver’s hurry up offense gets the chance to do it. Older brother and his team are fast when it comes to putting it into drive, but tend to shift into neutral shortly thereafter before putting it back into drive when it counts.

PIT @ CIN: PIT +7, 0.5 Units
The PIT/CIN is a division rivalry that goes back a long time. This is a nationally televised evening game, which usually means a close game for all the reasons I’ve previously mentioned regarding this primetime slot. If the lines goes to 7.5 before kickoff, I may go back in with a higher unit play.


Pending picks…

SF @ SEA ???
Its a Seattle lean for me; just waiting on the chance that there'll be some line-moving SF money that might come in at the last minute.

DEN @ NYG (2^nd Half) ???
If the script I expect plays out in the first half, gonna go with DEN in the 2^nd depending on the line when it comes out at halftime.

[pixster]

SF @ SEA: ???
Pending; probably wait on this closer to game time.


Thursday Night Football, Sept 19
KC @ PHI: ???
Keeping a close eye on the early line, which is PHI -3
If KC does well today vs DAL, as does PHI in their game vs SD, the Chiefs might have value in a short week against an exhausted Philly team. We'll see how today's early games pan out, and what the Vegas reaction is 5 hours from now.

[whtsox13]

Some well thought out positions in this thread

[pixster]

Some well thought out positions in this thread

Thanks. Hopefully those positions work out for the best.

Good luck, fellas.

[pixster]

SD @ PHI (2nd Half): SD +7, 1.5 Units

Going with this. PHI is gonna need to step it up, which is what Chip Kelly didn't want going into a short week game. Will SD blow another 2nd half?

[pixster]

JAC @ OAK (2nd Half): OAK PK, 2 Units

[pixster]

DEN @ NYG (2nd Half): DEN -2, 3 Units

[on3]

deleted

[pixster]

DAL @ KC: KC – 2.5, 1.5 Units (5Dimes) L
STL @ ATL: STL +6, 2 Units L
SD @ PHI (1^st Half): PHI -4, 1.5 Units L
SD @ PHI (2nd Half): SD +7, 1.5 Units W
MIA @ IND: MIA ML +130, 2 Units W
JAC @ OAK (2nd Half): OAK PK, 2 Units W
DEN @ NYG (1^st Half): NYG +4, 1.5 Units W
DEN @ NYG (2nd Half): DEN -2, 3 Units W

SF @ SEA: ???
Pending...

[Lift2beFit]

Hey pixter how do you feel about the under tonight???

Ps good work so far, just found this g
Thread and will continue to follow

[pixster]

Hey pixter how do you feel about the under tonight???

Ps good work so far, just found this g
Thread and will continue to follow

Not playing the total on this game. Picking sides for full game, 1st half, and possibly 2nd half. Enjoy the game!

[pixster]

Okay, line holding steady at 3. To liven' things up, gonna throw it out there w/this...

SF @ SEA: SEA -3, 2 Units
SF @ SEA (1st half): 2 units

2nd half pick probable.

[pixster]

Forget to put in 1st half line # for the SEA. Its SEA -1.5

[pixster]

SF @ SEA (1st half): SEA -1.5, 2 units W

Ugly game.
Comfortable were I'm at.
No 2nd half pick.
Ugly game.