Pixster's Plays

[pixster]

MIN @ SEA (1st Half): MIN +7.5, 1 Unit
MIN @ SEA: MIN +14, 1.5 Units

A quick look at the stats show MIN with a better 1st half scoring pct than SEA.
The Vikings have not lost to any team this season by more than 13 pts with Ponder at QB.

[Lift2beFit]

SF @ NO: U 51, 2.5 Units
If the oddsmakers expect this to be a 3 pt game, then they're not expecting the Saints to put up big blowout numbers. 9ers have a top defense; as do the Saints in many respects. SF pass off sucks, so look for a rush attack from them, incl Kap. Game is gonna come down to whether or not Brees can execute a successful aerial game plan. My guess is that he won't based on the trends.

I was waiting for someone in the forum to agree with me on this. San Frans can shut brees down, superbowl calibur team.

Plus fun fact, totals that have moved a full point past any number that can be divided bu 7 or 10 to get a whole number, have hit around 65%


In thid case it moved past 49 and 50

[Click_Clack]

Smh at Minnasota, they just laid download...nice call tho

MIN @ SEA (1st Half): MIN +7.5, 1 Unit
MIN @ SEA: MIN +14, 1.5 Units

A quick look at the stats show MIN with a better 1st half scoring pct than SEA.
The Vikings have not lost to any team this season by more than 13 pts with Ponder at QB.

[pixster]

SNF....
Goin' in w/ a few picks after a check of the:

inactives
weather
predictive ratings
stats
hype machines

[pixster]

Weather: Clear
Inactives: <0>
Predictive ratings: 48 (total score), DEN -9
Stats: Off < DEN, Def < KC
Hype machines: talking points are 1) Manning's injuiries, 2) Bowes' arrest

[pixster]

KC @ DEN: DEN - 7, 2 Units
KC @ DEN (1st Half): DEN -4, 2 Units
KC @ DEN (1st half): 0 24, 2 Units (hook)

possible 2nd half picks...

[pixster]

KC @ DEN (1st half): 0 24, 2 Units (hook) W

there's one...

[pixster]

KC @ DEN (1st Half): DEN -4, 2 Units

there's two...

[pixster]

Small

KC @ DEN (2nd Half): DEN -3, 0.5

[pixster]

KC @ DEN: DEN - 7, 2 Units W
there's three...

Pushed the fourth....
KC @ DEN (2nd Half): DEN -3, 0.5 P

[pixster]

Between time w/ the fam and time at the corp, haven't had that xtra interlude to tally Pix for several weeks. Will get to that sometime b4 Turkey Day.

Upon reading other posts, seems a handful of posters are congratulating and/or thanking other posters in their clique for handicapping prowess. Must be doin' good, hey?!

[thorny]

Between time w/ the fam and time at the corp, haven't had that xtra interlude to tally Pix for several weeks. Will get to that sometime b4 Turkey Day.

Upon reading other posts, seems a handful of posters are congratulating and/or thanking other posters in their clique for handicapping prowess. Must be doin' good, hey?!

I have only just followed you with today's games. Mighty good job, I think I'll be keeping a close eye on your posts.

[pixster]

I have only just followed you with today's games. Mighty good job, I think I'll be keeping a close eye on your posts.

Thanks. Glad my efforts are paying off; hope it continues.

NE @ CAR
No picks on tonight's game. Busy day...not going to have the time to cap it confidently.

Best of luck, fellas.

[jalein]

I respect the fact that you refrain from making a pick without proper time to prepare

[pixster]

SF @ WAS: WAS +5, 3.5 Units
SF @ WAS: U 47.5, 1.5 Units

Both these lines are somewhat fluid at the moment, so gonna pull the trigger now before the value, as I see it, is gone.

Each team avg pts scored (season): virtually identical, 24
Each team avg pts allowed: SF 17.8, WAS 31

WAS off. pts @ home: 30.5
SF off. away: 26.2

If the Redskins’ d can’t hold the 9ers to under 27 pts, the game fav's Kap & Co exponentially. But WAS may get some unexpected help from Mother Nature. Weather reports are showing a cold front hitting the East Coast next weekend. Monday night's temp is expected to be in the 30’s – not something SF is used to.

One of the key things to look for in this matchup is how well Kap plays. Latest passing stats show the 9ers are ranked last. Conversely, WAS is near the top ten in that category, and has the number one rushing attack in the league.

I don’t think SF’s offense makes a dramatic improvement in one week, especially w/ starting OG Mike Iupati out w/ an injury. Their defense will have to come up big again, but will probably have to do it without starting CB Tarell Brown.

Washington is coming off of two home victories in which they beat Chicago and San Diego, respectively.

OU ratings are predicting the total at 45 pts, and a 2 pt SF victory.

Factoring in the weather, stats, recent performances, primetime billing, and current betting trends (Spread SF 91% - WAS 9%), I like the Skin’s chances of covering. At 47.5, the total is currently 1% U, 99% O. As the total is lowered, that trend will obviously shift.

[thorny]

any thoughts on Saints v Falcons?

[pixster]

NO @ ATL: ATL +10 1.5 Units

Saints may be making their Turkey day plans too soon. Plus, they have Seattle up next. Trends show public all over ATL; casinos stand to lose w/ an ATL cover. So...

[pixster]

ATL hanging tough...only a Falcon meltdown will the Saints pull away. Don't see that happening, though. Tempted to go in w/ a 2nd halfer, but nah.

In the previous post I said the casinos stand to lose if ATL covers. Correction if "New Orleans covers", but you guys know what I meant. Vegas wins even more if ATL wins, which the Falcons have a chance of doin' if the game continues this way.

[pixster]

NO @ ATL: ATL +10 1.5 Units W

Cash it! No system, no stats driven lock went into this pick. Because how can a system and any kind of stats algorithm predict this type of an outcome consistently convincingly? People were calling ATL a sucker bet!

Today, just had a gut feeling Vegas was not on the sucking end.

[thorny]

well done!

[pixster]

Last few football seasons, I would read postings from a bunch of other people here on SBR to compare opinions against my own. I haven't done that as much this year because I frankly don't have the time to sift through all the miscellany anymore just to get to the refreshments. As it is, it takes long enough to go through all the raw info from other resources (stats, trends, ratings, etc) to reach a conclusion that I'm satisfied with, and then supply a write-up supporting my position.

When handicapping, I don't have system or a "star" grading. How can a set formula (aka equation) apply to every game? There are too many variables, even with the adjustment of a few integers here and there. Rather, when trying to predict a potential outcome for each football matchup, I analyze the following clues:

Objective
Stats (ESPN, Teamrankings.com, etc)
Betting Trends (Casinos don't lose much)
Weather (especially this time of year)
Injuries

Subjective
Predictive ratings (free if you know where to look)
Gut feelings (trust your first instinct except for primetime games)
Hype (Usually the opposite happens. When someone says the game is a sure lock, they've fallen for the hype)

Of course, there are other factors. But most importantly, never lose sight of the fact that the NFL is in the business of sports "entertainment".

Pix tomorrow.

[pixster]

Gonna do something different for this weekend...calling it, "Anatomy of a Pix." lol
I promise not to use the word penetrate, or any derivative thereof.

[pixster]

Starting w/ the marquee games...

1) DEN @ NE
2) SF @ WAS

As we all know, marquee games are those primetime matchups that are scheduled as "feature presentations." In the betting world, they're practically irresistible. Dissecting them for the purpose of wagering doesn't require more than a layman's approach.

DEN/NE
Clue 1 (subjective): Companies have paid big dollars to advertise via commercials during the telecast. In return, networks promise a certain % of viewers. Its no surprise to anyone that its in the best interest of the "business" to keep things close until the very end of the game...cause...if the game is a one-sided blowout early on, most viewers will turn the channel (pardon me, use the remote) to watch something else. Probability: close game

Clue 2 (subjective): Brady vs. Manning. The stuff of legends. The hype machine is in full force. Most major NFL media outlets have this storyline as their main piece, notwithstanding the Welker deal. Why shouldn't they? Readership/viewership is up. Every word is scrutinized, but the abundant use of adverb & adjectives cancels out any chance of neutrality. Probability: close game

Clue 2a (subjective): Coming off of a loss last week, the Brady/Belichick duo is still getting heaps of praise for having a good record despite not having all the personnel fans have been accustomed to. I don't see the same praise for Manning and Co. Its there, but not as intense. Same thing occurred just prior to the Chiefs game. Most all the news was about how an undefeated KC team was gonna take out DEN. Didn't happen. Now, the news has shifted to the assumption that Manning's frail ankles and cold temp aversions will be his downfall.
Probability: DEN

Clue 3 (objective): Also in the news, Mother Nature. Gametime temps are expected to be in the teens with a possible wind chill making things very blustery.
Advantage: Under

Clue 4 (objective): As previously mentioned, Manning ankles are a bit tender. Relax, he's an older fb'er and needs a little more time to heal. Welker is coming off a concussion, but it looks like now he'll be in the game. Patriots injuries on defense are more of a concern in their secondary.
Advantage: DEN

Clue 5 (objective): Betting trends...ats is pretty even. O/U is currently 74% - 26%
Advantage: Under

Clue 6 (subjective): Predictive ratings are calculated by some really smart mathematicians who, bless their hearts, are also Vegas-unaffiliated sports fans. If anybody can come close to a system, it's these guys. Matter of fact, the pre-game ratings these individuals put out are remarkably comparable to the actual opening lines the casinos issue.
Point Spread Ratings: NE 55, DEN 57. These #'s are not to be confused with the anticipated score. 55 and 57 are ratings, as in a grading system. Probability: DEN
Over/Under Ratings: NE 26, DEN 30. This is the anticipated score. 56 is the total. Probability: Under, given the weather forecast

Clue 7 (objective): Stats....both teams possess high-octane offenses, but most would agree DEN is more potent more of the time. On paper, New England has a better defense. Taking injuries into consideration, the d's even out. Advantage: DEN

Clue 8 (subjective): Gut feeling. There are some teams I don't trust: Oakland, Pittsburgh, and to some extent, the Patriots. I've seen too many games these teams have been involved in that haven't made sense as to the outcome. Does that mean that New England has a chance to win? Yep, I wouldn't be surprised if they won 55 - 0 if that's what the football gods want. But as the season progresses, it looks more and more like the Broncos are destined for the SB. If the Broncos start losing games, it'll be more toward the end of the reg season when they have everything including home field wrapped up. To make that happen, they have to win this game vs NE. The Patriots are no longer the NFL's darlings, and won't do as much as the Broncos to promote the league's bottom line.
Probability: DEN

That's my take. If I'm wrong, well, its just one game. I'll continue apply this method of handicapping as its worked more times than not over a period of time.

DEN @ NE: DEN -1, 3 Units
DEN @ NE: U 54, 1.5 Units

Next up, SF @ WAS...

[pixster]

SF/WAS
Earlier in the week...

SF @ WAS: WAS +5, 3.5 Units
SF @ WAS: U 47.5, 1.5 Units

Seems like I missed an opportunity to get WAS at +7 a few days ago. Dagnabit!

Specifically,

1) Stats
49ers pass off. rank last in the league! Yet, the hype is that they'll snap out of it in DC. If the 9ers were any other team than the 9ers, would people say the same thing? Even the Jags and 30 other teams are better! OK, so SF's defense and rushing attack will fulfill their destiny. Right?
Advantage: =

2) Betting Trends
Current ats money indicates that Vegas stands to lose if WAS doesn't cover. The O/U has corrected itself just as I previously thought.
Probability: WAS

3) Weather
9ers land in DC today, as per Twitter. Welcome to the tundra!
Advantage: WAS

4) Injuries
Advantage: WAS

5) Predictives
Point Spread Ratings: SF 55, WAS 52. Probability: SF -3
Over/Under Ratings: SF 20, WAS 25. Probability: Under

6) Hype
Storylines bypass Kap's passing struggles to focus on must win - will win - against RGIII the prima donna. But which QB is the real prima donna? Probabilty: =

Will add a few more units if lines change before game time.

[pixster]

During the intermission, learned a new SBR phrase: faux sharp
Only a matter of time before Morgan Freeman talks about this dichotomy on "Through the Wormhole."

Also, funny how NBA and NCAA postings wander into the NFL section?

More NFL pix coming up...stay tuned.

[Lift2beFit]

Starting w/ the marquee games...

1) DEN @ NE
2) SF @ WAS

As we all know, marquee games are those primetime matchups that are scheduled as "feature presentations." In the betting world, they're practically irresistible. Dissecting them for the purpose of wagering doesn't require more than a layman's approach.

DEN/NE
Clue 1 (subjective): Companies have paid big dollars to advertise via commercials during the telecast. In return, networks promise a certain % of viewers. Its no surprise to anyone that its in the best interest of the "business" to keep things close until the very end of the game...cause...if the game is a one-sided blowout early on, most viewers will turn the channel (pardon me, use the remote) to watch something else. Probability: close game

Clue 2 (subjective): Brady vs. Manning. The stuff of legends. The hype machine is in full force. Most major NFL media outlets have this storyline as their main piece, notwithstanding the Welker deal. Why shouldn't they? Readership/viewership is up. Every word is scrutinized, but the abundant use of adverb & adjectives cancels out any chance of neutrality. Probability: close game

Clue 2a (subjective): Coming off of a loss last week, the Brady/Belichick duo is still getting heaps of praise for having a good record despite not having all the personnel fans have been accustomed to. I don't see the same praise for Manning and Co. Its there, but not as intense. Same thing occurred just prior to the Chiefs game. Most all the news was about how an undefeated KC team was gonna take out DEN. Didn't happen. Now, the news has shifted to the assumption that Manning's frail ankles and cold temp aversions will be his downfall.
Probability: DEN

Clue 3 (objective): Also in the news, Mother Nature. Gametime temps are expected to be in the teens with a possible wind chill making things very blustery.
Advantage: Under

Clue 4 (objective): As previously mentioned, Manning ankles are a bit tender. Relax, he's an older fb'er and needs a little more time to heal. Welker is coming off a concussion, but it looks like now he'll be in the game. Patriots injuries on defense are more of a concern in their secondary.
Advantage: DEN

Clue 5 (objective): Betting trends...ats is pretty even. O/U is currently 74% - 26%
Advantage: Under

Clue 6 (subjective): Predictive ratings are calculated by some really smart mathematicians who, bless their hearts, are also Vegas-unaffiliated sports fans. If anybody can come close to a system, it's these guys. Matter of fact, the pre-game ratings these individuals put out are remarkably comparable to the actual opening lines the casinos issue.
Point Spread Ratings: NE 55, DEN 57. These #'s are not to be confused with the anticipated score. 55 and 57 are ratings, as in a grading system. Probability: DEN
Over/Under Ratings: NE 26, DEN 30. This is the anticipated score. 56 is the total. Probability: Under, given the weather forecast

Clue 7 (objective): Stats....both teams possess high-octane offenses, but most would agree DEN is more potent more of the time. On paper, New England has a better defense. Taking injuries into consideration, the d's even out. Advantage: DEN

Clue 8 (subjective): Gut feeling. There are some teams I don't trust: Oakland, Pittsburgh, and to some extent, the Patriots. I've seen too many games these teams have been involved in that haven't made sense as to the outcome. Does that mean that New England has a chance to win? Yep, I wouldn't be surprised if they won 55 - 0 if that's what the football gods want. But as the season progresses, it looks more and more like the Broncos are destined for the SB. If the Broncos start losing games, it'll be more toward the end of the reg season when they have everything including home field wrapped up. To make that happen, they have to win this game vs NE. The Patriots are no longer the NFL's darlings, and won't do as much as the Broncos to promote the league's bottom line.
Probability: DEN

That's my take. If I'm wrong, well, its just one game. I'll continue apply this method of handicapping as its worked more times than not over a period of time.

DEN @ NE: DEN -1, 3 Units
DEN @ NE: U 54, 1.5 Units

Next up, SF @ WAS...

That was a good readin right there. Was on the pats until this post... however, how do you feel about peyton manning being 2-5 in games below 30°. Let alone the teens... and ankle pain that will throb in the frost.

[pixster]

That was a good readin right there. Was on the pats until this post... however, how do you feel about peyton manning being 2-5 in games below 30°. Let alone the teens... and ankle pain that will throb in the frost.

...let alone all the metal screws keeping his head and neck attached to his body. No doubt Broncos' trainers will have a playbook as important as the OC's.

DEN's supporting cast is the key that tips the balance in this here clash. The way I look at it, if Peyton is serious about his Super Bowl aspirations, he'll have to conquer the frost issue now. The Big Game in Feb 2014 will undoubtedly have similar weather conditions.

[pixster]

TB @ DET (1st Half): O 24, 1.5 Units
Starting of a short week, I'm thinking that the Lions are gonna want to win this early versus the prospect of having a long protracted battle. The Bucs come in to town on a two game roll.

1) Stats
Both teams rank in the top ten when it comes to 1st half pts.
Advantage: Over

MIN @ GB: U 44, 1 Unit
GB on a short week, too.

1) Weather
Game time temps projected to be in the teens w/ a wind chill in the single digits.
Advantage: Under

2) Stats
GB's pt avg last three games: 15.3
MIN's " " " " " : 25.7
Advantage: Under

2) Injuries
GB Rodgers won't be doin' the double check. MIN's Jennings iffy.
Advantage: MIN

3) Betting trends
O/U is currently 62% - 38%
Probability: Under

[pixster]

SD @ KC: SD +4.5, 2 Units
Chiefs face DEN next week. KC looking at the possibility of losing two games in a row, which gives the Broncos the needed breathing room in the home stretch.

1) Injuries
Advantage: Chargers

2) Betting trends
ats SD 39%, KC 61%
Probability: Chargers

3) Predictives
KC 52, SD 49 (not total)
Probability: SD +3

[Noleafclover]

Very worthwhile reads...

Minnesota's 32nd in points allowed, I suppose it'd be more scary if it wasn't Tolzien-Bay, but still makes it tough for me to get behind an under.

I'd like Den too except for last week's final play. After screwing up the call (at least arguably) in NE-CAR, I expect some "ref guilt." Make-up calls are a natural part of sports, and GB got some pretty favorable calls the game after their questionable loss to Seattle last year.

[eddycash]

I agree with pretty girl above me. Excellent read and you also almost convinced me to take denver. One thing I have to always remember is that there are more fixed outcomes during primetime games. Look back just this season only for Sunday nights, mondays and thursdays. I don't have those stats, but I'm sure those days favor vegas for primetime games. Since 65%+ is on denver, I'm automatically taking the pats. Same thing for Monday night (which agrees with your pick). Good luck friend.

[pixster]

TB @ DET (1st Half): O 24, 1.5 Units W
1 of only 2 early games to go over 24 pts in the first half.
Not a good scenario developing for DET goin' into Turkey Day vs GB. How it'll affect the opening line remains to be seen. Will have some initial thoughts on that later today.

[pixster]

IND @ ARZ (1st Half): IND +3, 1 Unit

Indy's 1st half troubles standout like a sore thumb, scoring an avg of 3 pts in the first 30 minutes of play in the last three games. Unreal, which is why I have a gut feeling the opposite will happen today. Otherwise, they'll be repeating a pattern where they'll have to come back at the end of the game which can be tiresome for Luck-y, and fall right into the Cards expectations. Should be interesting to see how Arians plays his former team.

[pixster]

SD @ KC: SD +4.5, 2 Units W
KC loses two in a row, with a possible hat trick next week against DEN. This gives the Broncos xtra incentive to knockoff New England tonight.

[pixster]

MIN @ GB: U 44, 1 Unit L
Killed by OT