Pixster's Plays

[pixster]

And there's two...
BUF @ CLE: O 40, 1 Unit W

On the night...
BUF @ CLE (1st Half): CLE -2.5, 2.5 Units W
BUF @ CLE: O 40, 1 Unit W

TNF Record
7 W - 3 L

Season: 28 W - 16 L - 1P , 20 Units

[shookid]

good job pal. you are usually on point with the write ups and always have solid plays. lets cash out big this week.

[pixster]

Pick 1
KC @ TEN: U 39, 1.5 Units

With a combined record of 7 – 1, solid disciplined defense is what got the Chiefs and Titans in very good standing.

Chiefs D
• leads the AFC in sacks, turnovers, and opponent third down conversions
• allow a league-best 10.3 points per contest

All of which probably has TEN QB backup Fitzpatrick nervous. No doubt we’ll see a lot of Chris Johnson.

Titans D
• top 5 in turnovers, and opponent third down conversions
• allow 17.2 points per game (seventh in the league)

KC QB Alex Smith doesn’t lead a quick-strike offense, but rather a conservative game plan which suits his style of play. Chiefs’ chief success is in putting together long, sustained, clock-eating scoring drives, something they’ll undoubtedly stick with facing a TEN’s tenacious d.

Other notes…
KC Punter Dustin Colquitt leads the league with 15 punts inside the opponents' 20-yard line, and should be ready after he sprained his knee last weekend – ESPN

On Tennessee's side, QB replacement Ryan Fitzpatrick is the unknown factor in this game. But given Fitz’ history w/ the Bills, it might be a long day for him as its assumed his talent level is inferior to that of the hurt Locker.


Pick 2/3
JAX @ STL: U 41, 0.5 Unit
JAX @ STL: Jax +13 (hook), 1.5 Units

Surprise...two teams w/ similar season avg stats in several categories:

Defense
Rushing, passing, total yds allowed (all bad)

Offense:
Yds rushing (all bad)
1st half pts scored (ranked 31st 32nd, respectively)

That last stat is key. If the Jags and Rams are unable to score pts on each other w/ proficiency early on, I don’t think a 2nd half scoring frenzy is in the cards. The Jags with all their misfortunes do possess an 11th ranked passing d. This however could be a result of JAX’s opponents playing soft in the 2nd half having already established a commanding lead. But the Rams have been less than commanding, although one might say that they’ve played some pretty good teams. JAX/STL, something’s going to give, or not that much is going to give. I’m going with the latter.

Some are quick to write off the Jags; the Vegas line opened at 10.5 and is now at 12.5. Does the extra few days off give the Rams that much of an advantage? A funny thing has happened on the way to the forum, though - there’s money coming in on JJ – so I’m not the only one not auto-dismissing Shad Khan's team.

Other notes…
The Rams' struggling offense might have something to do w/ the o line allowing 11 sacks in the last two games. Furthermore, STL has had no decent RB production to write home about as they rank last in the NFL with 47.3 rushing yards per game. JAX hasn’t been stellar in that dept either. But Jags’ RB Jones-Drew might be able to “find some holes against the banged-up Rams, who have allowed 412 yards on the ground the past two weeks.” Also, the Jags do get back WR Justin Blackmon after a 4-week suspension. This could make things interesting taking into account this week’s STL injury report: Safety T.J. McDonald out, Cornerback Cortland Finnegan (doubtful), and a few others in the secondary iffy.

Pick 4
NE @ CIN: CIN pk, 1.5 Units

Somehow I get the impression that the movers and shakers in the NFL want the Patriots to succeed no matter what. How else can a mediocre team (yes, I said it) be 4 – 0, and handily beat the Falcons in ATL?

For this game, I really don’t have to do much in the way of research to know that the Bengals outrank the Pats is just about every category. At the QB position, Brady does barely edge out Dalton stat-wise thru 4 games, but c'mon man.

CIN is the best all-around team NE has faced this year. CIN showed a lot of mettle turning what looked like a sure loss against Green Bay into a victory a few weeks ago. Last week, the Bengals did stumble a little vs CLE (no doubt they were looking ahead to this game - NE).

So who or what will the Patriots have on their side this time? Mother nature? The refs? The choreographers from the WWE?

[pixster]

SEA @ IND (1st Half): IND +0.5, 2.5 units

The Colts have not been behind at the half in any game this season. The Seahawks have been behind in 2 of 4 games at the half – those games were on the road – their Achilles heel.

The Colts most impressive outing to date has been against the 9ers, shutting them down in San Francisco, no less. T'was a huge confidence boost.

Indy's stats are comparable to Seattle’s, and may even hold an edge in this match-up given SEA’s road afflictions.

1st Half Stats
Incredibly, in the two road games previously mentioned, the ‘Hawks have only managed to score 6 pts! That's 3 pts each game.
Indy's at home scores meanwhile: 10 and 20, respectively.
Through 4 games (road/away), the Colts are avg’ing 15 pts to the Seahawks’ 8.

[pixster]

Maybe a few more picks tomorrow morning after pregame "inactives" report.

GL

[VenomLugz]

I'm with you ... KC/TEN under and JAX/STL under! I stay away from NE vs CIN but my pick is NE -1. Good Luck!

[pixster]

DET @ GB: U 54, 1 Unit (Bovada)

Leading DET receiver Calvin Johnson inactive/out
Leading GB rusher James Starks inactive/out

[VenomLugz]

What is your play for Dallas vs Denver and Houston vs SF?

[pixster]

DEN @ DAL (1st Half): DEN -4, 1.5 Units

[pixster]

DEN @ DAL (2nd Half): U 32, 1 Unit
DEN @ DAL (2nd Half): DAL +6, 2.5 Units

[pixster]

HOU @ SF: O 43, 1 Unit

[pixster]

SD @ OAK (1st Half): SD -3, 1.5 Units SD @ OAK: SD -5, 1 Unit

[Dan]

No picks for tonight?

[pixster]

NYG @ CHI (1st Half): CHI -4, 0.5 Unit
NYG @ CHI: U 48, 1.5 Units
NYG @ CHI: NYG +10, 2 Units

ATS side betting trends nearly even, currently.
Guessing CHI’s last two games and NYG’s “must win and Soldier Field success in recent years” mindset has something to do with it. Translation: there’s an abundance of confidence on the Giants in primetime to cover.

Over/Under is 83% - 17%, awfully high pct for the Over. So goin’ w/ the Under because the stats don’t support it. They do support a CHI 1st half cover.

So if the game “Under” holds up, and knowing the capability of the Giants, a good case can be made against a wide pt differential. Hence, the cover.

Noteworthy Inactives
Bears Safety Charles Tillman
Giants RB David Wilson

[pixster]

NYG @ CHI (1st Half): CHI -4, 0.5 Unit W

There's one, but doesn't look good for the game Under.
Evaluating 2nd half possibilities...

[pixster]

Pace: Both teams scoring above avg.

CHI's 2nd half pt avg is approx 14. Since NYG is keeping pace, looks like a 24 pt+ 2nd half.

NYG @ CHI (2nd Half): O 24, 2.5 Units
NYG @ CHI (2nd Half): NYG +3.5, O.5 Unit

[pixster]

NYG @ CHI: U 48, 1.5 Units P
NYG @ CHI (2nd Half): O 24, 2.5 Units L
NYG @ CHI (2nd Half): NYG +3.5, O.5 Unit W
NYG @ CHI: NYG +10, 2 Units W
NYG @ CHI (1st Half): CHI -4, 0.5 Unit W

TNF (Week 6)
3 W - 1 L - 1P

TNF (Weeks 1-6)
10 W - 4 L - 1 P

For 10/13/2013
Pick 1
CAR @ MIN: CAR +3, 1 Unit

Few more picks coming up, w/ the bulk on gameday morning.

[pixster]

Week 6, cont'd

OAK @ KC: OAK +9.5, 2 Units
OAK @ KC: O 41, 1 Unit

The OAK/KC line opened at 10 ats, 41 o/u. That approximates a OAK 13 - KC 27, OAK 14 – KC 24 range if the Under hits. Only problem is that the Raiders have scored no less than 17 pts every time QB Pryor has gotten the start, and no less than 21 against division rivals (that 21 came against the Broncos in Denver). The way Pryor has been playing (and as long as he doesn't get hurt), I’m gonna say Oakland is good for 20 -24 pts, while KC in a close win scores anywhere from 24 to 30 (their season avg is 26, and they’ve scored no more than 31). Other than DEN, the Raiders have allowed no more than 24 pts.

[pixster]

PHI @ TB: U 46, 1.5 Unit

The Bucs are a decent team – on defense, that is. Other than New England, the Bucs haven’t allowed more than 18 pts in a game – and that includes a game against New Orleans. Couple that with TB’s 32nd ranked scoring offense the last three games (yes, the Jags are even better), and you get some pretty low scoring game totals: 35, 30, 26, 23.
Some teams alone can regularly score those amounts week to week. One of those teams is Philadelphia. So why the Under pick?

imo, even if the Eagles - with Foles at QB - score up to 24 pts on TB’s stout d, its unlikely Tampa Bay surpasses 21 even on PHI’s piss poor d.

The line has remained steady at 2.5 at most shops, which of course suggests a close game. If the game does indeed come down to a field goal, the question is will it be an Eagles-like high scoring close game, or a Buccaneers-like low scoring close game. I’m inclined to go with the latter because a) that appears to be the stronger trend b) the game’s in Tampa Bay, and c) backup QB’s are starting.

[pixster]

JAX @ DEN (1st Half): DEN -19.5, 1 Unit

If SEA at home can cover a 1st half relatively high, double-digit spread against the Jags, the I'm pretty sure the Broncs can too if they maintain the same sufficient intensity since week 1. Any deviation from that will be embarrassing.

[pixster]

WAS @ DAL (1st Half): DAL -3, 1 Unit

With exception to DEN, the Cowboys have led their opponents at the half by a min. of 3 pts. DAL has been on a scoring splurge last three 3 games ranking in the top 5 for points per game (33 pt avg.) and 1st half points (19 pt avg). Known for their slow starts, WAS ranks near the bottom in 1st half scoring efficiency (8 pt avg).

If these trends continue, and if DAL isn't winded from last week's game, they should get this by at least 7. The 2nd half is up for grabs as that's when the Redskins typically come to life.

[Pan43]

BOL with your picks today, tailing you this week also.

[pixster]

NO @ NE: NO + 3, 1 Unit (Bovada)
GB @ BAL: U 49.5, 0.5 Unit (Bovada)

GL

[pixster]

TEN @SEA (2nd Half): TEN +8, 2.5 Units

[pixster]

JAX @ DEN (2nd Half): JAX +14, 1 Unit

[pixster]

NO @ NE (2nd Half) U 26.5, 1 Unit

[pixster]

ARI @ SF (2nd Half): O 20.5, 1 Unit

[pixster]

WAS @ DAL (2nd half): WAS pk, 4 Units (Betonline)
WAS @ DAL (2nd Half): 0 23.5, 3 Units (Betonline)

[Dan]

Are you playing tonight?

[pixster]

SEA @ ARI: ARI +7, 2 Units (Bovada)
SEA @ ARI: U 41.5, 0.5 Unit

[pixster]

Vegas sacrificing O/U, imo
ARI hanging tough ats

SEA @ ARI (2nd Half): ARI +2.5, 1.5 Units
SEA @ ARI (2nd Half): Under 20.5, 0.5 Unit

[pixster]

DEN @ IND: DEN ML, 3 Units
DEN @ IND: U 57, 1.5 Units
HOU @ KC: KC ML, 2 Units
NE @ NYJ: NYJ +4, 1 Unit
SF @ TEN: U 41, 4 Units

[pixster]

SD @ JAX: SD -7, 1 Unit
CHI @ WAS (1st Half): CHI PK, 0.5 Unit
TB @ ATL: TB +7, 1 Unit

[pixster]

DEN @ IND (2nd half): DEN -7, 5 Units

[pixster]

MIN @ NYG (1st Half) MIN +3.5, 1 Unit
MIN @ NYG (1st Half) O 23.5, 1 Unit
MIN @ NYG: U 49, 0.5 Unit
MIN @ NYG: NYG -3.5, 1 Unit