Pixster's Plays

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CAR @ TB (1st half): TB +3.5, 1 Unit
CAR @ TB: CAR -6.5, 1.5 Units
CAR @ TB: O 39, 2 Units

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CAR @ TB (2nd Half): O 19, 2.5 Units

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NYJ @ CIN: 0 40.5, 1.5 Units
WAS @ DEN: WAS +12.5, 1.5 Units
WAS @ DEN: 0 57.5, 1 UnitPIT @ OAK (1st Half): OAK +0.5, 1.5 Units
SEA @ STL: SEA -11.5, 1 Unit

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SEA @ STL (2nd Half): SEA -4, 2 Units (5Dimes)

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"

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CIN @ MIA (2nd Half): U 20.5, 0.5 Units

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ATL @ CAR: ATL +9.5, 3.5 Units
ATL @ CAR: U 45, 2.5 Units

A couple of things stand out in this game.
First, CAR travels to SF next week. The same week, ATL travels to SEA. We all know the syndrome.
Second, the current O/U betting trend is 91% - 9%. I guess Joe Public is under the impression the Panthers will continue scoring at a high rate.

Team Pts per Game Stats:
ATL: 23.7
CAR: 24.3

ATL (away): 17.7
CAR: (home): 25.0

I’m mostly going with the latter grouping.


MIN @ DAL: MIN +11, 3 Units
DAL ranks dead last in pass d. So how and why is a team in this position fav’d by 11?


TEN @ STL: TEN -2.5, 2 Units
Hurt Locker should be back in shape.


KC @ BUF: KC -3, 2 Units
I don’t see the Chiefs letting one get away b4 their bye week.
KC’s opponent in Week 11: Denver in flex-time prime time. Figure the NFL wants a KC 9 – 0 vs DEN 8 -1 matchup. Now that Broncos Coach Fox is in the hospital w/ semi-serious heart problems, there’s gonna be an extra storyline the network is using to sell commercials. Ratings bonanza.


PHI @ OAK (1st Half): OAK -0.5, 1.5 Units
Going w/ this info (as per ESPN)…”Oakland has outscored opponents 59-20 while averaging 196.3 yards over the first 30 minutes in its last four games, but has been crushed by a 63-10 margin and generated just 91.3 yards in the second half of those contests.”


TB @ SEA (1st Half): SEA -10, 2 Units
TB @ SEA: SEA -15, 1.5 Units

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early games...

ATL @ CAR: ATL +9.5, 3.5 Units L
ATL @ CAR: U 45, 2.5 Units W
MIN @ DAL: MIN +11, 3 Units W
TEN @ STL: TEN -2.5, 2 Units W
KC @ BUF: KC -3, 2 Units W

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TB @ SEA (2nd half) O 21.5, 3 Units

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PHI @ OAK (2nd Half): U 23.5, 2 Units

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IND @ HOU: O 42, 3 Units
IND @ HOU (1st Half): HOU +0.5, 2.5 Units
IND @ HOU: HOU +3, 1 Unit (Bovada)

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IND @ HOU (2nd Half): O 20, 1 Unit

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IND @ HOU (1st Half): HOU +0.5, 2.5 Units W

there's one...

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IND @ HOU: O 42, 3 Units W

there's two...

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IND @ HOU (2nd Half): O 20, 1 Unit W

there's three...

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IND @ HOU: HOU +3, 1 Unit (Bovada) P

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WAS @ MIN: WAS pk 2.5 Units
WAS @ MIN: 0 48, 0.5 Unit

I can't in good conscience go w/ Minny in this spot. The Vikings put a scare on DAL last week, but so do most teams it seems. The Redskins on the other hand, are comin' off a victory over SD, a legitimate contender this year.

Vikings will put up some pts here, but I think the Redskins counter in a fairly close game.

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Wow, the conclusion of that was/min game seemed unnatural. Vegas plays rough.
Currently in pick tuning mode...Last edited by Pixster; Today at Zulu 00:00 GMT
Last edited by Pixster; Today at Zulu 00:01 GMT Engage Picks, Reason for Editing: Redact BS
Predictive Model = ???, Editor Pixster LOL OLO OOL LOO LOO OOL OOO LLL

Just a parody, folks. Poking fun at the system. Back to biz...

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JAX @ TEN: TEN 12.5, 3 Units
JAX @ TEN: O 41.5, 1 Unit

TEN hosts Indy next weekend, so a poor showing against the Jags only turns the Colts into Pavlov's Dogs. Google "the Jags are inept" and you'll get a zillion hits (apathetic filler material) from most every sports media outlet. Even the 3 - 6 Rams looked good against JJ beating them by 14 a few weeks ago.

Jags have the worst run stats on offense and defending against it. And, they just got worse ala Blackmon's suspension.
OK, so the Titans are not elite, but c'mon man. If RB Chris Johnson cannot get it together for this game, then may Bud Adams come back from the grave and join the ancient [Jimmy the] Greek gods in overthrowing the current Titan admin.

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OAK @ NYG: U 44, 1.5 Units

Too many indicators pointing south: OAK tvl'ing east, low offense output & injuries both teams, prior NYG bye week

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STL @ IND: U 44, 3 Units
Lackluster pt scoring special

SEA @ ATL: Leaning O 45 (depending on ATL R. White Status)
Good potential for the O when = ATL home pt avg + SEA away pt avg.
Matty Ice career 3 - 0 vs. Seahawks.

Late game picks later...

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SEA @ ATL: O 47, 1 Unit
Line jumped 2 pts overnight. Still goin' w/ it but at a lower unit amt

DAL @ NO: 0 53.5, 0.5 Unit
DAL @ NO: DAL +7, 2.5 Units
Historically, Romo's best QB #'s come in Nov.
DAL's lousy d should acct for plenty of Saints pts, as per Rob Ryan.
But as a primetime game, I see this game being decided toward the end after most of the TV commercials get their money's worth.

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CAR @ SF: U 43.5, 2 Units
Interestingly, Panthers/9ers passing stats rank in the bottom 10 league-wide. Both teams possess a top 5 d. Look for a ground game that keeps the score low. Most of the dependable predictive ratings I follow tops the total score at 41.

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DEN @ SD: SD +7.5, 3.5 Units
John Fox's absence makes a difference + SD Coach (former DEN off. coord.) may know a thing or two on how to stop Manning & co.

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CAR @ SF (2nd Half): O 20.5, 0.5 Unit

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DEN @ SD (2nd Half): SD +3, 1.5 Units

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HOU @ ARI (2nd Half): HOU +4, 2 Units

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DAL @ NO (1st Half): NO -3.5, 3 Units

Primetime shenanigans aside, the rationale for this 1st half pick is stats-driven. Saints @ home score an avg of 17.2 1st half pts, while DAL's road avg is 11. The Cowboys pass d ranks 31st in the league, so I'm sure Brees will have a field day - up until the powers that be orders up a Big D comeback, of sorts, in the 2nd half. That's my guess. And because as most of you already know, I like to play aggressively...no courage, no gains.

Stay tuned for a 2nd half pick, ALSO.

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DAL @ NO (1st Half): NO -3.5, 3 Units W

There's one...

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DAL @ NO (2nd Half): DAL +0.5, 2 Units
DAL @ NO (2nd Half): O 24.5, 1 Unit

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There's two...
DAL @ NO: 0 53.5, 0.5 Unit W
There's three...
DAL @ NO (2nd Half): O 24.5, 1 Unit W

And the other's don't come thru. But majority wins!

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IND @ TEN: TEN +3, 3 Units

Colts facing their third straight backup quarterback. The first two, HOU Keenum and STL Clemens, "combined to go 29-of-50 for 597 yards and five touchdowns against the Colts." Indy had to stage a desperate comeback in the 4th quarter vs the Texans, otherwise they'd be 0-2 in their last two games. Doesn't sound like IND has had it quite together lately, defensively (they rank below the Titans in most every category in that dept).

Since losing Reggie Wayne, Luck has a total QBR of 28.7, down from 73.6 with Wayne on the field. Indy's rushing game has also been lacking, rushing for only 18 yards last week. In a short week, I don't know if they can get these things fixed in time to intimidate TEN.

TEN have their issues, too, namely at the QB position. But if a) backup QB Ryan F can have a decent game b) RB Chris Johnson gets his head out of his a$$, and c) the team doesn't let last week's Jaguar embarrassment get to them, then a close game is what might be in store this evening.

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ATL @ TB: O 43.5, 2.5 Units
In Week 7, t’was TB 23 - ATL 31. Several weeks later, the only thing that’s changed is the personnel in some key positions on both sides. What’s remained constant? The pts the respective d’s are giving up.

In recent weeks, ATL's offense has only mustered an avg of 11 pts a game. In comparison, 19.7 is what the Bucs have managed in the same time span. But a careful look at the teams ATL & TB were facing explains the low points output. Both teams should see more scoring opportunities today. The Bucs are capable of winning this game, esp after a good two week performance. But I like the total better.

WAS @ PHI (1st Half): U 27, 1 Unit
Goin’ purely w/ 1st half stats on this one. Philly’s home avg (4 games) is 4.0…that’s not a typo! WAS away pt avg (6 games) is 13 pts.

SD @ MIA: U 46, 1.5 Units
46 seems a bit high compared to the various predictive ratings and seasonal scoring stats on these two teams.

OAK @ HOU (1st Half): HOU -4, 2 Units
Last few games, HOU has come out of the gate impressively. Poor 2nd half showings have been their Achilles heel. That might not be the case vs OAK, a team that’ll be without QB Terrell Pryor.

ARZ @ JAX: O 40, 1.5 Units
6 of the last 7 games the Jags have been in have resulted in 40 or more pts. All but two of the Cardinal games have done the same thing. Jags d give up an avg of 32.3 pts per game, something I think ARZ will exploit. The Cardinal defense isn’t as elite as everyone thinks, so it’s conceivable the Jags will put up more than a few pts.

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BAL @ CHI: U 41, 1.5 Units
Severe wind alert, even a "tornado watch", gametime forecast.

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SF @ NO: U 51, 2.5 Units
If the oddsmakers expect this to be a 3 pt game, then they're not expecting the Saints to put up big blowout numbers. 9ers have a top defense; as do the Saints in many respects. SF pass off sucks, so look for a rush attack from them, incl Kap. Game is gonna come down to whether or not Brees can execute a successful aerial game plan. My guess is that he won't based on the trends.