Pixster's Plays

[pixster]

DAL @ KC: KC – 2.5, 1.5 Units (5Dimes) L
STL @ ATL: STL +6, 2 Units L
SD @ PHI (1^st Half): PHI -4, 1.5 Units L
SD @ PHI (2nd Half): SD +7, 1.5 Units W
MIA @ IND: MIA ML +130, 2 Units W
JAC @ OAK (2nd Half): OAK PK, 2 Units W
DEN @ NYG (1^st Half): NYG +4, 1.5 Units W
DEN @ NYG (2nd Half): DEN -2, 3 Units W
SF @ SEA: SEA -3, 2 Units W
SF @ SEA (1st half): 2 units W

TNF - SNF
7 W - 3 L, 9 Units

Season Tally
16 W - 7 L, 70%
19.5 Units (before juice)

One game remaining week 2: MNF, PIT @ CIN
No adjustments. Keeping it at 0.5 Units
If it wins, I'm at 20 Units wholesale. If it loses, still a winning week!

[pixster]

Thursday Night Football, Sept. 15

KC @ PHI
Locking in a play now just in case the line slips into less desirable #'s.
I like KC in this spot for several reasons...
1) Short week is gonna mess w/ both teams, but Philly is gonna probably feel it the most given how much their up-tempo offense has drained the team the last two weeks
2) Andy Reid's return to Philadelphia. That's gotta be a boost. Reid may know a thing or two on how to strike at his former team
3) For two weeks in a row, KC's defense has been ranked in the top 5 while the Eagles' defense has been in the bottom 5

KC @ PHI: KC +3, 2 Units

[pixster]

Write-ups to follow in separate post

TB @ NE: TB +9, 3 Units (BetOnline)

[pixster]

TB @ NE

Patriots' tight ends rank last in the NFL in receptions, yards and drop percentage, and 31st in targets,
according to ESPN Stats & Info.

Bucs opp pass def comes into this game ranked 18th; same defense that held Brees to 1 TD, intercepting him twice, and sacking him 4 times last weekend.

Offensively, Tampa ranks 11th in rushing yards, but a paltry 31st in passing. Despite that, TB has lost their last two games by only a combined score of 3, losing each game in the closing seconds by a field goal. If the Bucs can overcome some of their deficiencies, including the notoriety of being the most penalized team in the league, they have a decent chance against the Patriots who I consider is currently playing like an average team due to their well publicized issues.

[pixster]

SD @ TEN: SD +3, 1.5 Units

Going into week 3, TEN’s passing stats are among the worst. Yet SD, a team that’s had the hot hand over an impressive two week offensive display, is still a 3 pt dog. So what gives?

Here’s some of the reasons why I think the Titans are faved:
a) its TEN home opener
b) they’re def roughhouses
c) vs. HOU, they kept it close
d) Charger’s WR Floyd is inactive
e) Chargers’ rank last in opp pass yds
f) Chargers remembered for blowing 2nd half lead a few weeks ago

Can the Chargers overcome all this? Against a one dimension Titans team i.e running game, the answer is affirmative. And, the Chargers don’t have to possess a top pass d given the sad condition of TN’s passing corps. Regarding TN's pass defense, the refs will be watching, Mr. Pollard.

Last week, SD wasn’t fazed by an east bound road trip like I thought they’d be, so it seems like they’re good to go again. So this match-up will probably come down to who has a better passing game. And right now, Rivers has the hot hand.

If TEN gets behind early, I don’t see them coming back on the combined arm of Locker or the legs of Johnson. Thus far in the season, the Titans have only scored four total touchdowns: 2 passing tds by J. Locker, 1 receiving td by K. Wright, 1 rushing td by J. Battle, and 0 tds by C. Johnson. So unless there’s a major San Diego breakdown from beginning to end, the Bolts look good in this spot.

Passing
SD Rivers: 50-76, 614 yds, 7 tds
TN Locker: 28-50, 273 yds, 2 tds

Rushing
SD Mathews: 29 car, 106 yds, 0 tds
TN Johnson: 50 car, 166 yds, 0 tds

Receiving
SD Royal:10 rec, 114 yds, 5 tds
TN Wright: 9 rec, 65 yds, 1 tds

[pixster]

Season Tally...16 W - 8 L, 19 Units......heading into Week 3

More Week 3 Picks Considerations:
CLE @ MIN (surprise pick?)
OAK @ DEN
and the usual 1st half delights w/ some thoughts on 2nd half possibilities for Sunday/Monday.
Later after the game. Or, perhaps tomorrow if I need to sleep on it.

[pixster]

KC @ PHI: KC +3, 2 Units W

TNF Record: 5 W - 0 L

Lovin' every minute of it! Congrats to all who tailed.

Next Thursday? Its SF @ STL. Pixster already has a lean. Check back soon.

[WhoDeyBeJustCash]

Thank you for your picks and write ups great insight into games.

[pixster]

Thank you for your picks and write ups create insight into games.

Right on, bro!

[WhoDeyBeJustCash]

Pix do you cap any other sports?

[pixster]

Pix do you cap any other sports?

I dabble in the NBA, but pro football is my principal area of interest.

[pixster]

CLE @ MIN: CLE +8, 1.5 Units (5Dimes)

The line opened at MIN -3 before the Browns' RB trade and QB switch. Since then, over 90% of the public has been swayed by the happenings outta Cleveland; the line’s now at 8 at some shops.

The Matchup
Before we get to Cleveland’s d, let’s ask a question about their offense: At what level were the Browns performing before the T-Rich trade and Weeden thumb injury?

Rushing stats: In the bottom 4
Passing stats: mediocre

Can replacement RB McGahee and QB Hoyer fare any worse? Looking at Minnesota’s d stats, well let's just say they quietly rank in the bottom 5.

The Browns will be getting back big-play wide receiver Josh Gordon from his two-game suspension. Gordon led all Browns receivers in 2012 with 805 yards and five touchdowns. The new vertical passing game installed by offensive coordinator Norv Turner is designed to take advantage of Gordon as a deep threat. The Browns have scored just 16 points with one touchdown in two games without him.

On offense, the Vikings don’t have terrible scoring woes, but then again they haven’t faced the Browns who come in to town with a top 10 defense (top 5 against the run). I like CLE in this spot.

Note: In the pre-season, Hoyer engineered two fourth-quarter scoring drives to seal the come-from-behind win.

A few more picks on the way...

[WhoDeyBeJustCash]

Thanks again pix for the great insight.

[pixster]

JAG @ SEA (1st Half): SEA -12.5, 1 Unit

Practically everyone knows what happens to visiting teams in Seattle. But, we also know that an NFL favorite of 19 points or more has rarely covered that spread, anywhere. Then how about 12.5 pts in the first half?

Here, the likely scenario is a game where the Hawk’s play with intensity only to the point where they have taken control of the game. So if by halftime Seattle has dominated and is firmly in command, what coach is going to leave in their 1st stringers to risk injury?

The storyline: Will Jags coach Gus Bradley have an impact on slowing down his former team? Maybe a little, but unlikely given that the ‘Hawks may want to put forward a strong showing, and keep their former def coordinator from potentially exposing any weaknesses.

The O/U is 40.5 currently, which probably represents someone thinking along the lines of a 27 – 13 game. In other words, Seattle will score enough early on, then take it easy. The Jags have a difficult time scoring as it is, and it would surprise me if the Seahawks allow them to score more than a few times. After all, Jacksonville has only scored 1 safety, 1 field goal, and 1 touchdown in two games thus far.

Is there any concern about the Jags d ranking 2nd in opp passing yds? Not really. Look at who they've played so far: KC and Oakland, ranked 25th and 29th in passing yds, respectively.

Somewhat of a concern is the weather, which calls for rainy conditions at game time.

[pixster]

STL/DAL
Live bet probable if DAL falls behind in the 1st Half

MNF
OAK/DEN (1st Half) ???
Pick pending, live bet probable if game is close in the early going

TNF
SF/STL
If SF and STL come out unscathed today (injuries, etc.) the line will probably open SF -3.
Pick will probably be on the O/U

[pixster]

STL @ DAL (2nd Half): DAL pk, 0.5 unit

[pixster]

STL/DAL has the makings of a blowout.

First Downs
DAL 12 STL 1

Passing YDS
DAL 105 STL 13

Rushing YDS
DAL 97 STL 5

Now, can the Cowboys squeeze the noose vs letting the Rams back in.

Kinda expected the game to be closer. If it stays this way, outcome may affect TNF line.

[pixster]

As expected, Thursday Night Football line opened SF -3
For now, I'll go w/ this...

TNF
SF @ STL: U 44, 1 Unit

[pixster]

KC @ PHI: KC +3, 2 Units W
TB @ NE: TB +9, 3 Units L
SD @ TEN: SD +3, 1.5 Units P
CLE @ MIN: CLE +8, 1.5 Units W
JAG @ SEA (1st Half): SEA -12.5, 1 Unit W
STL @ DAL (2nd Half): DAL pk, 0.5 unit W

With exception to the BUC/Patriot game, its been a decent week so far 4W-1L-1P

Contemplating CHI @ PIT...

[pixster]

Televised game in Pittsburgh
Public is on CHI
CHI scraped by last two games
PIT desperate for a win
PIT TE Heath Miller probable return

CHI @ PIT: PIT +3, 2 Units (Bovada)

[pixster]

OAK @ DEN (1st Half): OAK +10.5, 2 Units

DEN leads all teams in points per game. That’s per game. But they’re dead last in scoring points in the first quarter! Yep, the Broncos have scored zero pts in the first 15 minutes of play in each of their two games this season. Slow starts have been Denver’s pattern for some time. Obviously, they finish like gangbusters. That’s Manning’s m.o. Even though DEN goes w/ a hurry up offense, Peyton takes his time to figure out his opposition. By half time, the team has made their adjustments, and off to the races they go. Last year vs. the Raiders, the Broncos were no more than 6 pts ahead of OAK at the half in their two divisional games.

1st half stats this season: DEN is avg’ing 12.0 pts while OAK’s got 8.5

DEN is also last in another category: defending against the pass. They’re first against the run, but that may be misleading as they’ve played two poor rushing teams (BAL & NYG).

OAK comes into town with the 2nd best offensive rushing attack. Defensively, in the game vs the Colts in week 1, the Raiders held Andrew Luck to 147 yds. While Luck is no Manning, the Raiders are still number 3 against the pass overall. Both defenses will be tested under the lights, which f’ball aficionados hope translates into a more closer game than last night’s Steelers’ dive.

[fackxyouz]

im tailing this bet!

[pixster]

OAK @ DEN (2nd Half): DEN 6.5, 2 Units

OAK not showing any interest. 2nd Half is where DEN is at its best. Unless the Broncos relax, they should prevail.

[WhoDeyBeJustCash]

pix any plays this weekend?

[pixster]

SF @ STL: STL +4, 3 Units (Bovada)

The first team last season to put the Kap-led 9ers in their place was STL. And that was an SF team fresh and full-stocked. The Rams were 3 W – 8 L at the time when they played to a tie, and 4 W – 11 L when the Rams broke through and beat them by 3.

Today its Legends Night at Edward Jones dome, where Kap and Co come in to this game banged up - playing less than their former selves - yet Joe Public sees no problem with that. Instead, Mr. Public sees STL as being the problem. Defensively, yeah, I guess a case could be made for that. But the 9ers d is currently going through somewhat of a rough patch of their own, too.

Offensively, the Rams are avg’ing more pts per game than San Francisco. And it appears that Sam Bradford is putting up better numbers than Colin K. The running game isn’t impressive on either side, so this’ll probably come down to who has the better aerial performance.

So what's with the 9ers?
Are they suffering from the Curse of the Super Bowl Loser, lol, or is a better explanation is that these players are mentally tired, and struggling to recapture their prior level of intensity and focus. Can SF bounce back from their disappointing start, or is the beatdown at the hands of SEA two weeks ago gonna continue to have some residual effects?

The Rams play the Jags in nine days, while SF plays HOU in the evening primetime match-up, another nationally televised game. Gee, I wonder who will be suffering more from the stress tonight.

[WhoDeyBeJustCash]

Thank you for the play Pix

[pixster]

SF @ STL (2nd Half): STL +2.5, 1.5 Units

Rams rank 4th highest in 2nd half pts. SF is 26th.
Going w/ a Rams come back for some additional action.

[pixster]

BAL @ BUF: BUF +3.5, 1 Unit
NYG @ KC: KC ml, 1.5 Units
IND @ JAX: IND -8.5, 1 Unit
SEA @ HOU: O 41, 1 Unit
DAL @ SD: DAL pk, 1 Unit
DAL @ SD: O 46.5, 1 Unit

[pixster]

NE @ ATL: ATL -2.5, 1.5 Units

Its not that I've been biased against NE, its just that they're extremely fortunate to be 3 - 0 having played lackluster teams thus far. The Falcons are the first elite team this season they'll face - in Atlanta!

[pixster]

MIA @ NO (1st Half): NO -4, 2 Units

Coming in to this game, MIA hasn't had a lead at halftime so far this season.
The Saints' d is ranked #2 in opp pass yds, while Brees is the passing category is ranked #3.
The Phin's pass d is ranked 20th; run d is 17th
Plus this from ESPN intel...

"Though Tannehill continues to improve, he's been sacked an NFL-high 14 times through three weeks and could use more support from a running game that averages 3.2 yards per carry."

[pixster]

Housekeeping.

Week 3
KC @ PHI: KC +3, 2 Units W
TB @ NE: TB +9, 3 Units L
SD @ TEN: SD +3, 1.5 Units P
CLE @ MIN: CLE +8, 1.5 Units W
JAG @ SEA (1st Half): SEA -12.5, 1 Unit W
STL @ DAL (2nd Half): DAL pk, 0.5 unit W
CHI @ PIT: PIT +3, 2 Units (Bovada) L
OAK @ DEN (1st Half): OAK +10.5, 2 Units L
OAK @ DEN (2nd Half): DEN 6.5, 2 Units L

Week:4 W - 4 L - 1 P, -4 Units
Season: 20 W - 12 L - 1P , 15 Units

Week 4
SF @ STL: STL +4, 3 Units L
SF @ STL (2nd Half): STL +2.5, 1.5 Units L
NE @ ATL: ATL -2.5, 1.5 Units L
DAL @ SD: DAL pk, 1 Unit L
DAL @ SD: O 46.5, 1 Unit W
BAL @ BUF: BUF +3.5, 1 Unit W
NYG @ KC: KC ml, 1.5 Units W
IND @ JAX: IND -8.5, 1 Unit W
SEA @ HOU: O 41, 1 Unit W
MIA @ NO (1st Half): NO -4, 2 Units W

Week 4 SNF - MNF
6 W - 2 L

Week: 6 W - 4 L, 1.5 Units
Season: 26 W - 16 L - 1P , 16.5 Units

[pixster]

Week 5, TNF

BUF @ CLE (1st Half): CLE -2.5, 2.5 Units
BUF @ CLE: O 40, 1 Unit

CLE is on a hot streak…momentum is hard to ignore in any sport. Cleveland native Brian Hoyer is living out his QB dream playing for his hometown team - that’s got Browns’ fans buzzing, and Norv Turner tickled. TE Cameron is putting up outrageous receiving stats, while WR Gordon is not too far behind. Unfortunately, CLE has yet to establish a rushing attack, which is somewhat of a concern. That may not matter as BUF’s d ranks 27th in opp rushing, and 22nd in opp passing.

League-wide passing stats last two weeks show Hoyer in the top 10. Through two games, Hoyer has passed for 5 td’s, exactly the number Bills QB Manuel has thrown for in 4 games.

Defensively, the Browns are a solid top 5 crew. They go against a #2 ranked BUF rushing squad, but their offensive production may be off as they come in to this game nicked up.

1st Half Stats This Season
CLE’s d has allowed an avg. of 6.5 pts.
BUF’s o has scored an avg 10.8 pts

CLE’s o has avg’d 15.5 pts last two games
BUF’s d allowed 17 pts in their 1st road game.
BUF has been behind at the half 3 of 4 games.

The Bills have shown a tendency of finding ways to come back late in games, but the new Browns have been finding ways to counter.

[JimmyChoo]

so... browns or bills?

[pixster]

so... browns or bills?

I post my picks in bold letting.

To recap, its...

BUF @ CLE (1st Half): CLE -2.5, 2.5 Units
BUF @ CLE: O 40, 1 Unit

Translation...
1st Half, pick is Browns by 2.5 - betting 2.5 units
Over/Under full game, pick is over 40 - betting 1 Unit

Weather
For those of you concerned about inclement weather impacting the game, looks like most - if not all - of the severe rainy weather will miss FirstEnergy Stadium during game time...this according to Cleveland Doppler and several other weather reporting outlets. Google "Cleveland Doppler" for realtime updates.

[pixster]

There's one...BUF @ CLE (1st Half): CLE -2.5, 2.5 Units W