CHI @ ARI (2nd half): CHI -3, 1 Unit
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SF @ SEA: SF +3, 2.5 Units
adding to my earlier pickComment -
MIN @ GB (1st Half): O 23, 2 UnitsComment -
MIN @ GB (2nd Half): GB -7.5, 2.5 UnitsComment -
SEA @ WAS: SEA -3, 2 UnitsComment -
BAL @ DEN: U 46, 2 Units
SEA @ ATL (1st Half) ) O 23, 1.5 Units
HOU @ NE: (1st Half): NE -6.5, 1.5 UnitsComment -
SEA @ ATL: SEA +3, 2 Units
I'm predicting...
NFC Championship: SEA vs. SF
SF Wins
AFC Championship: BAL vs. NE
NE Wins
Super Bowl: SF vs. NE
NE WinsComment -
SEA @ ATL: SEA +3, 2 Units W
OK, so the Hawks won't be in the NFC Championship. The Niners now have to travel to the Dome. Opener is SF -2.5
SF @ ATL: SF -2.5, 5 Units
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SF/ATL Line now at -3Comment -
HOU @ NE (2nd Half): NE -6, 2.5 UnitsComment -
HOU @ NE (2nd Half): NE -6, 2.5 Units WComment -
BAL/NE Leaning BAL +9.5.
Gonna wait to see if the public pushes the line higher.Comment -
BAL/NE
So the line appears to be going the other way now...injury to Gronkowski a major factor. While the opening line suggested a blowout, I believe that the Patriots - if they have a comfortable lead going into the 4th quarter - will not risk injury to its starting players by keeping them out on the field unnecessarily. Back door Raven cover possible scenario. Of course, the inspired Ravens may just very well keep it close all the way ala the Ray Lewis Farewell Tour.
BAL @ NE: BAL +9, 3.5 UnitsComment -
SF/ATL Line now at -4 at most books.
For the Falcons to win, they'll need to execute the best game of their existence. It probably won't happen.
Plus, nobody wants to see a Falcons/Ravens Super Bowl (other than their fans). Perhaps not even a Harbaugh/Harbaugh matchup will do. The sportsmarket masses want a rematch spectacle; a SF/NE finale. It's already predestined - by the media, the sponsors, the books, the Trilateral Commission's Gentleman's Club aka the Football Gods. That's my stats-out-the-window game theory.
Oh yeah, the Patriots defeat the Niners.Comment -
SF @ ATL: U 48.5, 2 Units
ESPN Tidbit...
Terry McAulay is the referee for the Atlanta-San Francisco game. McAulay's games tend to see more penalties than average. His 16.3 penalties per game is tied for the second most among the NFL crews. McAulay's 52 holding calls is the most among the officials. As a result, McAulay's games average 44 points a game, 1.7 below the league average.Comment -
SF @ ATL: SF -2.5, 5 Units W
Missed the U on this by a score, but oh well. I'll make it up. All that's left is for the Pats do their thing. If the Pats win, I'm going all out with my biggest 2012 play on a Patriot W if the opening line is <6.5 Patriots.Comment -
BAL @ NE: U 50, 2.5 Units
Small make up attempt wager for the fun of it.Comment -
On the day...
BAL @ NE: BAL +9, 3.5 Units W
BAL @ NE: U 50, 2.5 Units W
SF @ ATL: U 48.5, 2 Units L
SF @ ATL: SF -2.5, 5 Units W
Okay, so the Patriots won't be in the big show. Fortunately, didn't have any SB futures on them, or any other team for that matter. Early line for the Super Bowl floating around is: San Francisco 49ers -4 (-115) vs. Baltimore Ravens.Comment -
Official. Opening line at most books: SF -5
Gonna put up 1/3 of my 2012 earnings (20+ units) on the game. But not going there with the full amount at this time. Will wait. But for starters, I do like the Ravens chances to cover...
BAL vs. SF: BAL +5, 7 Units
Its only now a matter of where the line goes from here. Will wager remaining 13 units based on where the line settles leading up to game time, and other factors as they materialize prior to New Orleans. Good luck.Comment -
BAL vs. SF: BAL +4, 5 Units
What the heck, adding 5 more units. Line is already shrinking.Comment -
BAL/SF
Some books now startin' to post SB line at 3.5Comment -
I’m as confident today as I was 13 days ago when I locked in my pick: BAL +5. I threw in a little more action at +4 before the line slid farther.
BAL/NE (two weeks ago)
I went with BAL +9 ‘cause the Ravens looked like a team on a mission. I still thought that NE was gonna pull out a victory, but a second bout of Gronkitis debilitated ‘em.
Anyway, right after BAL/NE, I had seen enough to call the SB…yes, the Ravens are going to make a big game out of the Big Game. At the very least, they’re not getting blown out. BAL doesn’t see itself as a team that has come all this way just to get slapped down like bitches – deep purple bitches. IMO, the key to this match-up lies not with the Ravens, but with the 9ers.
Capping Kap
Will Kap continue to perform at a high level? Will young Kaepernicus, at the center of the 9ers universe, continue to exceed expectations? Will he score via air and ground, and continue his San Fran bicep tat kissing ways? His answer: “It’s all about preparation.”
ColinK, you’ve been studied and dissected already by the Edgar Allan Poe Fan Club. Unless you and your coaching staff got something really new, as in channeling Broadway Joe Namath, the chances of winning are not for you to decide. It’s too soon, you’ll get too big for the sport. THEY won’t have it. But the crowds are standing in defiance - they’re chanting, Kaepernick, Kaepernick, Kaepernick – as you take that victory lap around the stadium. Then the cheering reaches a crescendo, and a close-up of your face (the new American quarterback of the future), is shown on the mega-Jerry-Jones-eat-your-heart-out Jumbo Tron, with Bach’s iconic Toccata and Fugue in D minor playing in the background. It’s your anthem, and Beyonce can’t touch it, because it’s an instrumental; there are no words, no words to describe it, that is. It’s unreal. Then you wake up. It was only a dream. It was really unreal.
FYI: I’m not a CK hater. Just having fun with the storyline. He’s having the time of his life. Hey, if Trevor Bayne can win the Daytona 500 in only his second ever Sprint Car start a few years back, then let us sit back and be a witness to a long shot in history. Enjoy the game and good luck.Comment -
4.5 Line's on the move! TastyComment -
BAL vs. SF: BAL +4.5, 6 units
In addition to what I already got going.Comment -
BAL/SF2nd half book lines range 6.5 - 7.5. Not goin' there. Happy we're I'm at. I don't want to jinx anything, but I'm preferring a closer game for entertainment sake.Comment -
BAL vs. SF: BAL +5, 7 Units W
BAL vs. SF: BAL +4.5, 6 units W
BAL vs. SF: BAL +4, 5 Units W
Cash that puppy!
Congrats to all who tailed. I know its tough to ignore the naysayers, but sometimes you gotta just go with it. I saw this outcome the minute the Ravens handed it to the Patriots two weeks ago. More on this later...watching the post-gameComment -
Super Duper
Right after the SF/ATL game two weeks ago, it became apparent to me that the 9ers were probably NOT going to fare well against either BAL or NE. Despite the stats, something bothered me about Frisco's chances; something was missing. So once the SB line opened later that day after the BAL/NE game, I jumped all over BAL +5. Felt comfortable at +4, too.
Year in Review
From day one, I've taken an earnest approach spending a good amount of time on my caps. And it paid off. Hope it helped some of you. But disappointed in the low feedback count on my thread. For the most part, SBR is a cool site bringing in contributors from all walks of life. But it seemed like much of the forum traffic was hogged up by contemptible attention seekers. A handful of posters did come thru with intelligent, insightful contributions…thanks for that.
Look for the Pixster next year. Maybe.Comment -
Postscript
The 9ers will win the Super Bowl...in one of the next three years. Most of you will agree that they'll probably be odds on fav in the futures market to win it all from 2014 - 2016. IMO, their best chance to take the Lombardi trophy will be in the 2014 - 2015 season. Why? Two reasons. First, that'll be Kap's contract re-negotiating year (he's only making $600,000 per year now). If he resumes where he left off, he stands to make gazillions. Thus, his best numbers will come during the 2014 - 2015.
Second, the 9ers new stadium is set to be completed in time for the 2014 - 2015. Its a state of the art sports edifice. I live not too far from this area, and I can assure you, the fans can't wait. So that's my opinion. Of course, a lot can happen between now and then, which is why I'm not big on futures. Just saying that there's a perfect storm potential a comin' by the bay...you heard it here first, fellas.Comment -
I was planning to not bet on SB coz I picked Ravens to cover and I don't want to bet againts 49ers. But when I saw your pick I bet 400, Im glad I did.Comment -
Good going.Comment -
Nice. I went with the Ravens the same reason why I went with the Giants a year ago. Recent blueprint: teams that get healthy and hot late in the season have ridden success over higher play-off seeds. Don't know if the trend will continue, but we'll see.
Barring injuries, I really like the Seahawks chances next year. People don't realize how close they really got to pulling off a championship. Next year's SB is in a cold-weather city - East Rutherford, NJ. If SEA makes it to the Super Bowl in 2014, they'll have no trouble acclimating.Comment -
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As I stated last month a few days after the Raven's SB win, Seattle became my fav to win next year's Super Bowl (see Post # 488). With the signing of Percy Harvin, I like my choice even more.
NFL's free agency set to kick off tomorrow, so I'm sure there'll be lots of other prognostications from everyone including their grandma.Comment