| Time | AWAY TEAM | PROJ AWAY SCORE | HOME TEAM | PROJ HOME SCORE | TOTAL | VEGAS SPREAD | VEGAS O/U | SPREAD BET | O/U BET | Actual Away | Actual Home | |||
| 7:00 PM | DARTMOUTH | 62 | COLUMBIA | 81 | 143 | -9.5 | 135.5 | Home Minus U | Too Close | 0 | 0 | |||
| 7:00 PM | YALE | 81 | PENNSYLVANIA | 71 | 152 | 6.5 | 138.0 | Too Close | Over U | 0 | 0 | |||
| 9:00 PM | OHIO U | 79 | TOLEDO | 79 | 158 | -6 | 160.0 | Away Plus U | Too Close | 0 | 0 | |||
| 10:00 PM | NEW MEXICO | 73 | SAN DIEGO ST | 72 | 145 | -6 | 152.5 | Away Plus U | Too Close | 0 | 0 |
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OVER... yes... must have a print out glitch... Excel has been killing me today. Sorry... glitch fixed...
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At first the Yale game was OVER (8:08 post)
Now it says UNDER (10:18 post)
Which is it ?????Leave a comment:
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your results are holding up well, you can go 20-20 and will still be at 58%. Unquestionably impressive. The unfiltered for close games like Toledo will really test the accuracy, I applaud 'going out on a limb' so to speak and not having a margin for error that eliminates a lot of betsLeave a comment:
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Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM DARTMOUTH 62 COLUMBIA 81 143 -9.5 135.5 Home Minus U Too Close 7:00 PM YALE 81 PENNSYLVANIA 71 152 6.5 138.0 Too Close Under U 9:00 PM OHIO U 79 TOLEDO 79 158 -6 160.0 Away Plus U Too Close 10:00 PM NEW MEXICO 73 SAN DIEGO ST 72 145 -6 152.5 Away Plus U Too Close
Added U for Unfiltered ... and F for filtered bets. Good Luck.
Columbia looks like a reasonable bet.
Dave
THE TEACHLeave a comment:
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So I examined the Over on UNC Wilmington... it turns out that of the 7 offensive statistics that I track NC A&T had negative z scores on all of them. I looked at the past over that were predicted and no other game fit that profile... so I added that filter. I know that it is after the fact... but my system... should not be predicting the over if every offensive statistic from one team is negative. As a whole the night was 3-1-1... The only loss was the filtered bet. I am glad I opened it up.
54-33... back over 62%...
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET Actual Away Actual Home 7:00 PM DARTMOUTH 62 COLUMBIA 81 143 -9.5 135.5 Home Minus Too Close 0 0 7:00 PM YALE 81 PENNSYLVANIA 71 152 6.5 138.0 Too Close Over 0 0 9:00 PM OHIO U 79 TOLEDO 79 158 -6 160.0 Away Plus Too Close 0 0 10:00 PM NEW MEXICO 73 SAN DIEGO ST 72 145 -6 152.5 Away Plus Too Close 0 0 Last edited by usma1992; 02-16-24, 09:17 AM.Leave a comment:
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So data from the season so far...
Nov 18-Feb 13 (Filtered)
152-45 (77.16%)
Jan 25-Feb 13 2500 games Tracked (Unfiltered)
47-23 (67.14%)
Total
197-68 (74.3%)
Data from Jan 2 forward is predicted data. But I am feeling fairly comfortable with my numbers. This does not include the 3 wins from last night.
Anyway, those numbers are big numbers... unrealistic... probably... but I got a lot of leeway to give and still be profitable.
Good Luck and Good Gambling
DaveLeave a comment:
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Stay around 3% of roll per pick... anything can happen and I don't want you to lose your entire bankroll. Yesterday, late submittal was only because I had to spend 3-4 hours revamping... and adding unfiltered bets.
I was just glad that the unfiltered bets came through in flying colors. None of the games were even close. I am working to see if I can get NBA up to speed.
My new generated picks will tell you if they are filtered or not. Ideally, if the model picks a filtered pick... it should be bet heavier. Maybe, 4.5% of your bankroll.
I was wrong 51-32... forgot to include a loss... 61.4%.
DaveLeave a comment:
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Thanks, Dave. Played all five of your picks this morning and may add some more OVER on A&T/Wilm. Also, really appreciate that you usually release picks early. Missed last night's rare late ones, but no worries. Any time that is good for you is great! Thank you very much for your continuing efforts.Leave a comment:
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So I did some soul searching about my program and the last few weeks and months last night. I reviewed this entire thread... and I realized that I am producing less bets now. However, many of the bets I was producing the last 6 weeks were ML bets. The payout on those bets weren't great and if you parlayed them... and lost one... you were out.
The ML venture really wasn't that lucrative. I tightened that system up but of course not it isn't generating many picks.
By adding the feature of my filtered bets.... which are the bets I have been generating from the beginning using complex algorithms to my now unfiltered bets which are solely my projected numbers... I am now generating enough real bets with hopefully a reasonable return.
For instance, last night... all three bets were unfiltered. I had no bets from my filtered system.
Tonight... there are five bets... only one is filtered. The OVER bet on UNC Wilmington. Let's see where tonight takes us.
So again, my lesson from college football... is to only bet filtered games until I have enough data. I am determining that to be about 2/3rd through the season.
51-31... after last night... 62%.
DaveLast edited by usma1992; 02-15-24, 02:24 PM.Leave a comment:
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3-0 Last Night on Unfiltered Bets... Over Tonight is Filtered so I would wager more on that bet... I'll come up with a system to identify filtered and unfiltered bets.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET Actual Away Actual Home 7:00 PM SMU 81 TULANE 71 153 2.5 158.5 Away Minus Too Close 0 0 7:00 PM N CAROLINA A&T 61 UNC-WILMINGTON 89 150 -21.5 141.5 Too Close Over 0 0 7:00 PM COLL OF CHARLESTON 82 NORTHEASTERN 69 151 4 153.0 Away Minus Too Close 0 0 8:30 PM W ILLINOIS 76 TENNESSEE TECH 64 140 3 127.0 Away Minus Too Close 0 0 9:00 PM LONG BEACH ST 68 CAL DAVIS 73 141 -3.5 154.0 Too Close Under 0 0 Leave a comment:
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Hm that's another thing that's considered - how far back you're going when compiling data for a game. I haven't done NCAAB, but my NBA model only used the last 5 games. There were times sides would go undefeated but the totals were off. There were times only a couple wides were correct but the totals were spot on. I woulld rarely change anything, i'd just look for patterns and bet accordingly. But when you brought how the farther back you go the closer to 50% you get, I'd have to imagine it's because how differently teams play through the season. Especially in NCAAB they have some dog shit matchups lolLeave a comment:
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I appreciate everyone's input. Neek ... to your point. I really have barely touched it since Jan 2. The only thing I have done is look at individual games that roll in that I am not close on. Then I try to see what I missed and make minor swing adjustments. It is true that my tweaks may have eliminated future wagers that could have been winners. But at this point it is north of 60% and that counts predicted and past data. However, last Saturday it predicted one game out of 100. That is unacceptable. Yes, it won but still it is unacceptable.
So here is what I decided to do today. It might get difficult to follow. I noticed in college FOOTBALL that my projected scores without filters got very strong 2/3rds of the way through the season. The last 1/3 of the season I crushed it. My numbers were on.
So I decided to see what this season would look like without filters. I removed all the filters except for a small point filter to eliminate extremely close wins or losses. If I go back to Nov 15th... when I started... almost all categories of bets were dead on 50%. Some higher... some lower. So again, I am just looking at my projected totals with no significant changes.
So I then decided to look just at the last week and the numbers were excellent. So then I went back two weeks to Feb 1st and the numbers were still north of 63%. I then went back another week then another week. around 6 to 7 weeks back right around Jan 1st my numbers for unfiltered bets went from 59% to 56%... then continued to go down from there. The further I went back the further the more my winning percentage decreases.
So here is my conclusion... it may be wrong but I came to a simllar conclusion in college football. My system needs to be dynamic. For the first two thirds of the season until Jan 21-25... I need to have projections plus filters and algorithms that work.
Once I hit critical mass of games tracked for the season around 2500... I can then also rely on my projected totals and spreads as additional bets.
Therefore, on a daily basis I will be producing a reasonable amount of bets because I will produce the filtered and unfiltered at the same time. This is my plan moving forward. If it doesn't work I will relook but producing no bets or just one bet is not going to work.
Now because I save my models every fews days to google drive. I can always go a revisit previously algorithms and test to see which ones worked the best. Maybe as Neek stated my model Jan 1st is better than it is now. I did have two weekends that went 19-1 and 13-1 but then I followed that up with 1-5 and 1-0.
I also have to believe that maybe Vegas refinds its lines toward the end of the season and it is hard to get an edge.
Who knows... trying.
Dave
THE TEACHLeave a comment:
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I know these picks are last minute and there is a reason for that. I will explain in my next post. I might stay away from Uconn... its a big #.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET Actual Away Actual Home 7:00 PM UNC-GREENSBORO 79 THE CITADEL 67 146 4.5 136.5 Away Minus Too Close 0 0 9:00 PM CONNECTICUT 92 DEPAUL 55 147 24 141.5 Away Minus Too Close 0 0 9:00 PM TENNESSEE 82 ARKANSAS 65 147 8.5 151.5 Away Minus Too Close 0 0 Leave a comment:
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I honestly think you are tweaking the model too much after each day. There will always always always be variance and I think you are trying to eliminate variance, which is eliminating picks. I think whatever you were doing back when you were producing 5-10 picks was working the best. From there, it seemed like you kept changing things, and as you kept changing things, the amount of picks steadily decreased. It will be hard to make anything of all of the work you've done if it's producing one play or less a day! I think you simplify a little bit and record all of the wagers and results and see what the results are around 500 picks before you make any changes.Leave a comment:
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Well, please keep going. Love action, but if nothing qualifies, I thank you for your time. Understand how you could be frustrated after what you have put into the process.Leave a comment:
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Continue to run it & see how it plays out ! A person has to choose whether to bet or not ! It’s by choice!Leave a comment:
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At a loss of what to do at this point... I am not concerned that I lost last nights bet. Tenn St. had 17-18 turnovers and didn't shoot well at all. I will accept that loss. I was happy with NBA for the first time. Sacramento was down by 1 with 24 seconds left. I think it was the right bet... got a push.
Here is the problem. It is now producing very few bets. It is like Vegas lines have finally caught up to me. There are no bets today for college or NBA. I expect it in NBA... not in college.
Do I just assume that my season is from mid November to Valentine's Day and end it there? Is the end of the season not going to be as lucrative as the numbers finally normalize?
Should I loosen up the program?
Dave
THE TEACHLeave a comment:
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in the last 10 yards of a race, when two horses are side by side and it comes down to the 'bob of the head' in some cases, there's no reason either horse should be chosen to win. Yet the heavy favorites were winning 60%, and the sample size was quite large. Could still be 'by chance' - that can never be ruled out - but maybe the better horses (generally with better jockeys) just want it a bit more. Back to the NBA: it being more difficult to beat compared to NCAA makes sense, fewer teams, lots of past history between teams. Trying to beat NBA, NFL, or Premier League Soccer seems almost impossible to me. I wonder where Billy Walters made most of his money, in the interview it seemed like he was betting mostly on College.Leave a comment:
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Yensel... I appreciate it. It is a ton of work and this is by no means by full time job. I would still be doing it... but by posting it helps me legitimize it in my mind but I also appreciate comments to keep going.
I just spent the last 3 hours on the NBA Away+ bets. I was only looking at a singular bet in the NBA. Neverending.
DaveLeave a comment:
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Wouldn't that depend on type of race it's in? Sometimes they'll be running along side some donkeys or horses making their first start or first run in years so the favoritism is a little skewed. But when it comes to the higher grades I think it's just always the perfect storm for them to get the best of the others. Track, trainer, rider, postion, all that. So still trickyLeave a comment:
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but that should work out (equalize) in the long run. 10 points scored in the last 50 seconds to lose, will some day be the opposite, and you win. It's no different than losing (or winning) a bunch of horse races by a nose, neck, or head. If you play long enough it will even out. However, in looking at a lot of data on races like this, I found that heavy favorites 'somehow' did manage to win far more of these close races than could be expected by chance. Could it be that the 'best' horses simply have that little extra that allow them to win these close races more often than not?Leave a comment:
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I registered for the sole purpose of thanking you and some other posters. So, here, in my first, Thank you for sharing, Dave!Leave a comment:
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RM Logic... I hear you but I still feel like I should be able to overcome those inconsistencies with enough data and enough analysis. Maybe not, I have obviously not be able to up to this point. I am trending around 45% in my predictions which is obviously losing.
My current NBA algorithms are back tested to an 85% hit rate. I know that is looking backwards and not forwards... but I am trying to create specific algorithms. It is only picking games now that have a real shot at winning. I am starting new trial today. I only bet 10 a game on NBA.
I will run this for the next two weeks to see if... I can get it to work.
RM Logic... I am confused about one thing.
There are a few threads that get multiple views yet... their picks aren't winning consistently or at all. They fully admit they are upside down yet people continue to view them.
I feel like I am one of the few people that have produced a model that is actually winning... consistently. Am I wrong? Is there another thread out there that I should be paying attention to.
DaveLeave a comment:
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The NBA is just a bad product and is too hard to handicap because of the BS variables that come into play that no other sport has. First you never know who is going to play or how much time players are going to play. There are games players and coaches could care less who wins. Then you have the nonsense officiating where nothing is called against certain players and refs make up calls all the time. When you have 10 incorrect calls in the last 2 minutes of a game (like happened a couple of weeks ago) you have to wonder just what is a legit game. College refs despise the NBA because it is not officiated with the goal of calling the game correctly.. You lost the under in the Philly game when there was 10 points scored in the last 50 seconds with zero chance of the team behind winning the game. It was nonsense. You dont see that in any other sport.Leave a comment:
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Lost on NBA again... just one game... upgraded it again... Not giving up. I want all 4 of my systems to work. There is another NBA game tonight and it is as tight as it has ever been. Here is college. I am not sure what to do about the line movements. My system is extremely tight so when lines change the bets do too... I don't have time to rerun it over and over.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET Actual Away Actual Home 8:30 PM TENNESSEE ST 77 TENNESSEE TECH 65 142 4 136.5 Away Minus Too Close 0 0 Leave a comment:
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That's why I was curious. I'm in CA and I notice he always releases picks around 8-9-10am. Not sure when the data / lines were scraped though. But plenty of bettors are getting down the night before. There can be a huge swing in value between the time the lines are released, by the time Dave is modeling, and by the time he posts the plays. So there can potentially be non-plays via the model that became non plays due to that time decayLeave a comment:
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The best way to model is versus the Opening Line.
The Opening Line is Static and consistent. Throughout the day, lines are moving and may vary from site to site leaving uncertainty when determining plays.
Consistency is a Prime KEY ingredient when utilizing mathematical models.Leave a comment:
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Because there are point and total swings throughout the day. Total can open at 240 so your model will label it a no play, but it can swing 5 points in either direction by tip, so there still can be a play depending on how you're using your number. Not to mention injury news. That's the hardest thing about originating is the constant maintenance and adapting to the marketLeave a comment:
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