2-0 on an escape on Xavier ML.. but they normally would have won by more than 1. At one point GTown was hitting 65%+ from the three. The Away- Quinnipiac... crushed it. In truth, it wasn't close and I started NBA thread with LA Lakers over bet... which won.
Any response is cool... again even haters keep me going.a little.
Dave
The Teach
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Current Model Statistics with upgrades... this does include data up until the 17th I believe. Maybe, the 16th.
Overs: 12-1 <1% of games... 92%
Unders: 33-12 2% of games... 73%
Away-: 14-2 <1% of games... 87%
Home-: 53-22 3% of games...71%
Away+: 22-10 1% of games...69%
Home+: 19-5 1% of games... 79%
These figures include back tested algorithms and a 16 day trial from Jan 2nd. I have posted all my picks. I have made a few extremely small tweaks.
Tonight, there is an Away- which is picked less than 1% of the time. I will continue to develop. Several have sent me emails or posted on the thread. I appreciate the encouragement. It is a lot of work but getting easier by the day. I am cautiously optimistic. Tomorrow is a big day again. I love Saturdays enjoy...
DaveLeave a comment:
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NBA thread is up and going for those that want my picks... enjoy. Big day tomorrow.
DaveLeave a comment:
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Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 6:30 PM GEORGETOWN 64 XAVIER 81 146 -13 149.0 Parlay ML Too Close 7:00 PM QUINNIPIAC 81 SIENA 64 146 5 148.0 Away Minus Too Close Leave a comment:
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Great night... 5 game ML parlay hit and my one spread bet hit. 24-16. I'll post my picks later today... I was able to tweak the model and eliminate some losing bets. With tweaks 24-13 but I know that is after the fact. However, I am building a model for the future. I had two NBA games picked that I didn't post. Split on spreads but both ML picks won. So in truth... had I been allowed to bet Virginia teams. I would have had a 7 game ML parlay. Feels like it is working.
DaveLeave a comment:
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Took a hit yesterday... 1-4 on bets... watched Boston... they couldn't hit anything. The ML Parlay bets hit all but one. I went 9-1 on parlay bets using a round robin and lost money. It really upset me... but nonetheless. I think last night was weird. I made some extremely minor adjustments to the model. I have been able to address the Monmouth over from a week ago. I also addressed two bets from last night. The model keeps getting stronger. 23-16 now. Hoping for a better next couple of days.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM FLA INTERNATIONAL 64 LIBERTY 83 147 -13.5 141.5 Parlay ML Too Close 8:00 PM LA-MONROE 59 JAMES MADISON 88 147 -21 145.5 Parlay ML Too Close 9:00 PM UTAH VALLEY ST 59 GRAND CANYON 77 136 -13 140.0 Parlay ML Too Close 10:00 PM SANTA CLARA 82 PACIFIC 64 146 11 148.0 Parlay ML Too Close 11:00 PM LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 61 SAN FRANCISCO 77 138 -10.5 140.5 Parlay ML and H- Too Close Leave a comment:
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Big Night tonight. Won the ML parlay and the single bet last night. Only tracking singles 22-12. Lots of bets...
Dave
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM IUPUI 60 IUPU-FT WAYNE 90 150 -17 151.5 Parlay ML Under 7:00 PM THE CITADEL 65 UNC-GREENSBORO 82 146 -11 133.0 Parlay ML and H- Too Close 8:00 PM MURRAY ST 66 IL-CHICAGO 73 139 -1 138.5 Home Minus Too Close 8:00 PM W VIRGINIA 58 OKLAHOMA 80 138 -12.5 144.0 Parlay ML Too Close 9:00 PM PROVIDENCE 81 DEPAUL 62 143 9.5 139.0 Away Minus Too Close 9:00 PM AUBURN 81 VANDERBILT 61 142 11 148.5 Parlay ML Too Close 9:00 PM TEXAS TECH 55 HOUSTON 78 133 -12.5 129.5 Parlay ML Too Close 9:00 PM LOUISVILLE 61 N CAROLINA 88 148 -21 155.0 Parlay ML Too Close 10:00 PM USC 68 ARIZONA 93 161 -19 159.0 Parlay ML Too Close 7:00 PM BUCKNELL 62 BOSTON U 72 135 -4.5 136.5 Home Minus Too Close Leave a comment:
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Won both bets... Single bets 22-12... Parlay hit nicely... lots of bets tonight... I will start NBA again... I stopped to upgrade it. Give me until this weekend to upgrade and reboot it. Dave
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM IUPUI 60 IUPU-FT WAYNE 90 150 -17 151.5 Parlay ML Under 7:00 PM THE CITADEL 65 UNC-GREENSBORO 82 146 -11 133.0 Parlay ML and H- Too Close 8:00 PM MURRAY ST 66 IL-CHICAGO 73 139 -1 138.5 Home Minus Too Close 8:00 PM W VIRGINIA 58 OKLAHOMA 80 138 -12.5 144.0 Parlay ML Too Close 9:00 PM PROVIDENCE 81 DEPAUL 62 143 9.5 139.0 Away Minus Too Close 9:00 PM AUBURN 81 VANDERBILT 61 142 11 148.5 Parlay ML Too Close 9:00 PM TEXAS TECH 55 HOUSTON 78 133 -12.5 129.5 Parlay ML Too Close 9:00 PM LOUISVILLE 61 N CAROLINA 88 148 -21 155.0 Parlay ML Too Close 10:00 PM USC 68 ARIZONA 93 161 -19 159.0 Parlay ML Too Close 7:00 PM BUCKNELL 62 BOSTON U 72 135 -4.5 136.5 Home Minus Too Close Leave a comment:
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Ahh ok thx for clarifying.
I already followed your NBA system and was wondering why you stopped.Leave a comment:
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I would normally team it up with my NBA picks which I haven't been publishing. They are starting to hit. I will restart publishing them by early next week.
I will be parlaying SMU ML with BYU ML and then taking BYU spread bet separately.
Only 3% of bankroll per bet... It turns out I missed 3 bets on last Saturday... all winners. My system had it set to only analysis 110 games at one time... about 130 played so it didn't even pick up the games.
DaveLast edited by usma1992; 01-16-24, 08:36 PM.Leave a comment:
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I appreciate the feedback... I am now trying to work on a solid betting strategy. Money management as we all know is crucial. So this my strategy moving forward.
Assuming each ML bet my system comes up with averages around 90%... which it seems to. Yes, the payout is -600 sometimes -2100... but nonetheless... if you can team up a parlay to generate 30% on your money consistently that is better than Wall Street.
Regardless... if each single bet is .90*.9*.9*.9*.9... five bets... that still teams you up 60% chance of winning those individual parlays. At six games it drops to 53%. So plan to bet all parlay bets as round robins if they are five games or less and straight parlays if they are six games or more.
In addition, I will bet all the single bets at 3% of my bankroll. The rest I will leave in cash. 21-12... lost another one.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 8:00 PM TEMPLE 59 SMU 80 139 -13.5 138.5 Parlay ML Too Close 9:00 PM IOWA ST 67 BYU 79 146 -4.5 143.0 Home Minus Too Close Leave a comment:
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keep up the good work usma1992, you are the only guy who has pulse in the college basketball subforumLeave a comment:
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Pretty small slate today...
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 2:00 PM DARTMOUTH 56 PRINCETON 83 139 -18 135.0 Parlay ML Too Close 3:00 PM MISS VALLEY ST 55 TEXAS SOUTHERN 82 138 -16.5 126.5 Parlay ML Too Close 7:00 PM CHICAGO ST 62 STETSON 80 142 -10.5 139.0 Parlay ML and H- Too Close Leave a comment:
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Illinois shot less than 33% from the field... Bad outing... I bet ML and spread so I am out both... all good... had amazing weekend. 21-11 on bets.
DaveLeave a comment:
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Good stuff man i been watching from the shadows.
I hope for continued success for your system!Leave a comment:
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It has been a long road... but I think I might have just beaten Vegas... I know... I have been told too many times that it can't be done. I'll gladly continue to post... I am not asking for a penny. Maybe you can donate 10% of your winnings to St. Jude. You want me to continue posting please let me know. Regardless, I am dialed in... profitable and ready for next fall.
I feel like I am printing money.
DaveLast edited by usma1992; 01-14-24, 08:37 AM.Leave a comment:
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Not sure what to think... 4-1 on single bets yesterday... so my current total is 21-10. So my Away - is my favorite category and that is the only one that didn't hit lol. I put $100 on it and lost.... that experiment didn't work... lol. However, I decided to parlay in a round robin all 9 games. I couldn't do VMI because Virginia won't let you bet on a Virginia team. I also clicked the wrong button on Oakland and them minus the spread... Nonetheless, all of my bets won. 9-0 yesterday using ML... 9-0...
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET Actual Away Actual Home 2:00 PM MARYLAND 62 ILLINOIS 78 140 -9 139.0 Home Minus Too Close 0 0 Leave a comment:
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Lost last night on spread bets... only 1 bet. I am Kennessaw St won by 3 ... spread was 7. Since my system seems to be hitting ... I am wondering whether I should round robin all my bets rather than just singling them. I have to think about it. See if the math makes sense. I am 17-9... but today is a big day and it has an Away - bet. My top category... GL. Dave
Based on past data... the bet of the day is Northern Kentucky.
AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET VANDERBILT 65 OLE MISS 81 146 -10 144.5 Home Minus Too Close N KENTUCKY 80 DETROIT 62 143 10 137.0 Away Minus Too Close SAN DIEGO ST 68 NEW MEXICO 77 145 -3.5 151.0 Home Minus Too Close OAKLAND 83 IUPUI 63 146 12.5 143.0 Parlay ML Too Close CS-FULLERTON 64 CS-NORTHRIDGE 76 140 -4 143.5 Home Minus Too Close VMI 64 SAMFORD 94 158 -24.00 162.5 Parlay ML Too Close TEMPLE 60 N TEXAS 75 135 -10.50 128.5 Parlay ML and H- Too Close LSU 61 AUBURN 79 141 -13.00 151.5 Parlay ML Too Close PORTLAND 59 SAN FRANCISCO 84 143 -16.50 143.5 Parlay ML Too Close Last edited by usma1992; 01-13-24, 08:10 AM.Leave a comment:
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I appreciate the nod... it has only taken me 13-15 years to get here. I am not sure I am there yet... but it is nice that someone is actually watching. Everyone has a system... and of course everyone is successful... killing it. My system produces the numbers... and yes I will continue to adjust along the way... but when it is working and as I watch the games it makes sense. I leave it alone.
Again, I will look at the Monmouth game and see if I can find something. Yes both teams shot 30% or so from the field but the posessions were only 52 a piece. That alone... states a No on Over bet.
Encouragement is always needed... I am running 4 systems ... now 3 since college football is over... and working two jobs... and helping my son reach is doordash goal. He got $1500 for making 275 trips. A professional guy on youtube said the most he ever did was 30 trips in a day... in a torrential downpour... we did 31.
College basketball tomorrow should be interesting a BIG DAY!!!
DaveLeave a comment:
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I appreciate it. It feels like when I post... it falls on deaf ears. It looks like I went 1-2... Currently, 17-8. I will look into the Monmouth Over bet... they weren't even close. All the Parlay ML won... and I teamed it up with a ML on NBA which won. Both my NBA bets won... so it wasn't a terrible night... But again, Monmouth wasn't close... I will look into it.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM BUFFALO 62 AKRON 84 145 -16.5 142.5 Parlay ML Too Close 8:30 PM DEPAUL 57 VILLANOVA 81 139 -19 136.5 Parlay ML Too Close 7:00 PM FLA GULF COAST 69 KENNESAW ST 86 155 -7 151.5 Home Minus Too Close Leave a comment:
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I’ve been following along with your system. Wanted James Madison but couldn’t pull the trigger. My own system has been profitable but if it stumbles then I will follow your system. Thanks for sharing Dave.Leave a comment:
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1-1 on Single Bets... Lost Parlay because Miami got upset at home... All good... Rare bets today... Over and Home+ almost never come up. Over hits 85% of the time. Home+ has an extremely small sample size but hasn't lost. 100%. I guess we will see. 16-6 on Single Bets.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 6:30 PM NEW JERSEY TECH 62 UMASS-LOWELL 81 143 -13.5 147.5 Parlay ML Under 8:30 PM JACKSON ST 71 ALABAMA ST 79 151 1.5 146.0 Home Plus Too Close 7:00 PM MONMOUTH 71 UNC-WILMINGTON 80 151 -8.5 143.0 Too Close Over 7:00 PM S ALABAMA 67 JAMES MADISON 88 155 -13 156.5 Parlay ML Too Close 7:00 PM DREXEL 87 N CAROLINA A&T 62 149 14 141.0 Parlay ML Too Close Leave a comment:
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On fire ... lately... 6-0(last night)... 4 were ML bets so... they aren't a big deal because the payout was weak. I'm parlaying all my ML bets together and betting the singles straight. I'm only using NBA ML bets until it becomes more consistent. My college bets are below... my Parlay will be Miami(College) ML and Clippers ML. So two bets and a 2 game ML Parlay.
DaveTime AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM LOUISVILLE 65 MIAMI 88 153 -16 157.5 Parlay ML Under 8:30 PM WISCONSIN 68 OHIO ST 76 144 -1.5 139.5 Home Minus Too Close Leave a comment:
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Look at the Creighton... Depaul game... and the previous Texas A&M CC.
Texas A&M CC Predicted 83-61... Actual 81-59
Creighton Predicted 88-61 Actual 84-58
Can't be just luck... the PARLAY ML bets are just to see if it make sense money wise. But Auburn -7.5 and the Under... I am 15-5 now.
Again... can't be just luck.
DaveLeave a comment:
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good picks
all winners it appears. Time to put down some serious money !
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I added a bet type... I am going to start parlaying certain games using the ML. The payout will not be great... but I wanted to try it for a while and see if I am profitable. The Parlay ML means take the favorite and ML.
Games Tonight...
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM MISSOURI 72 KENTUCKY 89 161 -12.5 161.0 PARLAY ML Too Close 9:00 PM CREIGHTON 88 DEPAUL 61 149 15 142.0 PARLAY ML Too Close 9:00 PM TEXAS A&M 64 AUBURN 79 142 -7.5 149.5 Home Minus Under Last edited by usma1992; 01-09-24, 10:19 AM.Leave a comment:
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I will look into it.
Take a look at the final results of the Houston Christian .... Texas A&M CC game. I had it 83-61... actual 81-59. Both bets won. I may be full of it... but damn are my results rolling in.
13-5... now... this round. And I am predicting scores within a couple of points.
Btw... system had Michigan winning by 4 very similar to Vegas.... had the point total at 46... Everyone was betting the Over. My system said stay away from both bets. If I were going to bet without my system... I would have taken the over.
Enjoy
DaveLeave a comment:
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Billy Walters
you might see if Walter's book is available at a local library , he apparently gives out quite a bit of info on his thinking (and specifics) in a 50 page section (sample below). It's indisputable he made a lot of money sports betting, although the Government said he profited from insider trading over numerous years (with the un-sexy stock Dean Foods) to the tune of $43 million profit. They do tend to exaggerate to build a case, and he apparently was ordered to pay back $25 million.
“The repeat cycle is then in place—the new power ratings are combined with game-specific factors (step 2), home-field advantage (step 3), and an assessment of injuries (step 4) to determine the next game prediction (step 5). This is shown in step 8.”
“If Temperature is 10 or below Degrees Fahrenheit: +1.75 Home.”
“In that example, the True Game Performance Lever is 14 (the net score) + the old power rating of the opponent (-4.2), and the net injuries (4.7-6.5=-1.8).”
“As you’ll see in the chart, 3 is relatively more valuable than 11, 12, and 13 combined, which are only worth 6 percent total.”
“Again, remain disciplined.”Leave a comment:
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Jamesrav,
I hear you about only betting a certain amount of games. However, right now, I am averaging about 10% of the matches for College and about 20% for NBA. NBA is right at breakeven. Hasn't really produced anything.
I am thinking about producing two models. One that has additional games at a lower percentage and one that has fewer games at a higher percentage. I guess we will see.
It only takes me about 5 minutes to run both basketball models a day now. Then I spend a 4-5 hours on the weekend analyzing. It's fun now because it doesn't take me that long.
DaveLeave a comment:
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Jamesrav,
I examined the Houston game and I found an element or attribute of the game that helped me change the algorithm. I track 8 offensive statistics and four defensive statistics. In that specific game, all the four defensive statistics of WVU had a positive z score(which means they are bad) and all of 8 offensive statistics of Houston had a positive z-score. If I assign a point to each statistics... the match up produced 12 points total just from the Houston O vs. WVU D. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to pick and Under bet if there is a potential of a blowout.
So I added that filter. A small change to the algorithm. Then I updated the previous games this season and it had no effect. There was no other scenario that the system picked the under while you had a 12 point matchup differential. That is what I do daily.
In the most recent trial, I have added two small filters. I constantly update. With these updates, the last few days would have been 11-3. It is currently 11-5... but the model is better. Again, any update I make must be tested over the previous 1500 games or so.
I just looked at the Houston Baptist vs. Texas AM CC to see if the under would be eliminated. That match up only produce 10 points out of potentially 12 so I am keeping both bets.
DaveLeave a comment:
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So back to your original question... The projected totals and points are only one part of the process. What I believe is nice about my system is that I generate my own projected points completely separate from Vegas. Often, my projected points provide valuable information. I then apply addition filters and test the algorithms over past data.
For instance, I look at all the Home - games and the projected totals. I look at examine previous results vs. my spreads and over/unders and Vegas over/unders. By adding additional filters, I try to widdle down the amount of games that my system bets at a higher percentage rate.
So on the Houston game, there must have been a match up issue that told the system not to bet the game even though the projected points clearly show that you should. I can't wait to see an Over bet or an Away - come up again. They are hitting North of 85%. I am going to look hard at the Houston game. The under really wasn't a great bet.
DaveLeave a comment:
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