Spent two days upgrading and back testing model... Starting new 10 day trial...

[Neek762]

Hm ... I wonder how much the time of day you're running your model is making an impact on picks. There's been a lot of value on the lines so far since open

[usma1992]

I was close on SuperBowl lol...

No college bets tonight... One NBA... still trying.

Dave

[usma1992]

12:00 AM	KANSASCITY	22	SANFRANCISCO	21		43	-2	47.5		2Close	Under		0	0
12:00 AM	SANFRANCISCO	20	KANSASCITY	22		42	2	47.5		2Close	Under		0	0

[bjb7223]

Nothing today... 48-31... almost 61%.... that doesn't include the previous bets before Jan 2.

I appreciate any reasonable feedback.

Dave

stick to college hoops and forget about the NBA

[usma1992]

Nothing today... 48-31... almost 61%.... that doesn't include the previous bets before Jan 2.

I appreciate any reasonable feedback.

Dave

[Neek762]

Yeah you'd have to figure a way to scrape the matching rotation numbers so that everythings in sync... i feel you though because there's already a bunch of double checking as it is placing wagers on the correct side lol

[usma1992]

Prolexus...

My models are fully automated... so it really doesn't matter much how many teams there are either way. Teams change year to year so I need to make sure they match up but in all honestly it takes me 1 minute to run pro NBA and a minute twenty to run college Basketball... what do I care how many teams there are in the system. The more the merrier.

Neek:
I use Betonline to get my lines... they seem to be as accurate as the rest of them. However, on the programming side if I decide to switch to another site... I have to work on the name change piece.

If you don't know... the names are the biggest pains of all of it. Some sites say Florida State... some FSU... some Florida St some Florida St. .... with a period. As a programmer this becomes a dilemma of how to match up the right statistics with the right team. In addition, when I download the results... I want the results to populate the right teams.

Dave

[Neek762]

Curious to which sharp book you both are using as the source of truth when comparing your lines

[prolexus]

NCAA Basketball takes too much time given I have the other numerous models...

[usma1992]

I think... I am doing ok. 48-31... I'll stay my course. Prolexus... I respect your opinion.

Dave
THE TEACH

[usma1992]

Prolexus,

I disagree, the modelling isnt easy. It isn't at least on my side... but filtering bets does create a challenge. It need to work in the past and predict. Not as easy as it seems... actually very difficult.

Curious, why do you follow my predictions... or at least appreciate them.

Dave
THE TEACH

[usma1992]

Jamesrav...

Analogy is remotely fair about hitting black 26 times in a row. I have driven to Foxwood and lost 8 in row using a doubling system. They produced 6 straight reds before I hit the table... They produced 9 straight after that .

But that is not what I am doing... I am producing stats favorites and yes... I will have a bad day... where I hit 30% but my predictions are 75% plus... not 48% on the roultette wheel... U are assuming my chance of winning is a roulette wheel... I find that very funny.

Dave
THE TEACH

[prolexus]

I believe we are saying the same thing. I have NBA, NHL, NFL, CFL, MLB, and Rugby models. I analyze and look for certain parameters/deltas from my line to the Vegas line (Opening Odds) to identify a "play".

Over the years, I have learned to respect the Oddsmakers, they are very good at what they do. If I have too many plays, my model may require adjusting. They will not be that inaccurate on a daily basis.

The "modelling" is actually the easy work. The hard part is the analysis and identifying the selections without too much elimination or too much addition. As well, I find season to season the parameters although close, need to be adjusted.

Be well.

[usma1992]

Prolexus,

maybe we are saying the same thing....
"The more in line your predictions are to the Vegas Odds the more accurate your model is."

At a betting level... I am searching for the inancurracies of Vegas... not whether my system is agreement with them. Maybe we are are saying the same thing.

Dave
THE TEACH

[Neek762]

The only thing I could imagine you doing is having the model spit out projections for every single game and you yourself can compare them to the opening lines and line movement. You don't have to wager if you don't want to, but you may start to notice some discrepancies or trends that may be taken advantage of. For example, in yesterday's Green Bay - Youngstown matchup, maybe your model didn't see value in taking Youngstown to cover 10 points, while the market showed a little lean towards Green Bay to cover, which they ended up winning outright. Maybe your model can be used to identify dogs with value? That would be a perk in spitting out projections for every game and keeping records of the projections + results. I had a +8 unit day yesterday and a lot of it was due to picking 6 dogs ML. Also had 4 pushes which was a pain in the ass but better than losses!

[usma1992]

Appreciate you insight... sounds like you are a seasoned bettor... So am I ...but as I have developed... maybe u r right... that I need to respect the Oddsmaker...

Dave
THE TEACH

[prolexus]

Don't chase more wagers, let them come to you. Respect the Oddsmaker. The more in line your predictions are to the Vegas Odds the more accurate your model is.

If you have too many selections, then it is time for inspection. The Oddsmakers do not make a lot of mistakes.

Rule #1: Respect the Oddsmakers
Rule #2: Read Rule #1

[usma1992]

Torn...

So yesterday there was a slate of 130 games... and my system only picked one. It won... but in all honesty... it was close until the last few minutes. Should I be happy?

Are Vegas lines tightening up over the course of the season where... my picks are less valuable. Are they coming in line with what I my system predicted?

Or should I just shut up and be happy I am winning?

No bets today NCAAB or NBA.

Football has KC by 2 but only 42 points total.

Dave
THE TEACH

[usma1992]

Cant believe there is only one game on slate of 100 today... there is one NBA and that system is extremely tight now.

Dave

[usma1992]

Time

AWAY TEAM

PROJ AWAY SCORE

HOME TEAM

PROJ HOME SCORE

TOTAL

VEGAS SPREAD

VEGAS O/U

SPREAD BET

O/U BET

Actual Away

Actual Home

6:00 PM

AKRON

69

JAMES MADISON

80

149

-5.00

145.5

Home Minus

Too Close

0

0

[Neek762]

Yeah I second the branching out to other leagues. I'm always checking discrepancies with their lines and am able to get some total middles in and let those play out while I sleep lol. Nice to have the bankroll working for you as often as possible when there's little risk!

[jamesrav]

your sample size is increasing daily, at some point (not sure if that's at 150 or more bets) you can do a statistical analysis to see if what you're predicting is 'statistically significant'. That really has to be at the .05 level, the guy who was fundamental for the test said a .1 result was "common" and meant nothing in the long run. Until you've had a bad streak (and it really has to happen, probability says so. Black came up 26 times in a row on roulette in Monte Carlo, and there was nothing wrong with the wheel) its hard to gauge where you really stand. Assuming it holds solid above the 54% level, you should check out oddsportal.com and see how many other basketball leagues there are all over the world (a lot). If you can gather good data for some of them, it would seem your method should work there as well. Might as well stick with what's successful rather than move to another sport. Continued success!

[usma1992]

RM Logic... I really appreciate it... except for a few people... my picks and my posts fall on deaf ears.

Not sure why... feels like I am printing winners. No picks tonight but I am betting on Philly under NBA because my system was close to picking it anyway... without Embiid... I think it will go under.

Dave

[RM Logic]

You are doing a great job with the picks.

[usma1992]

No bets tonight in college or pro...

Very happy with Marist bet... I predicted they win by 16... the spread was 4... they won exactly by 16.

Dave

[Sund]

Another winning day ! Thank you

[Optional]

I appreciate all those that provide me feedback and questions... it makes me better. It seems ... I only have a few that even follow this thread. I am doing the best I can ... and it feels like I am producing real results. I am hitting over 60%... is it just a faithful 5 or 6 ... are others out there that give a care whether I post.

I am trying to find out whether I really add value.

Dave

on average there is about 15 readers per poster.

Stop posting picks and some of those will post then lol

[prolexus]

Work is welcomed and appreciated.
cheers.

[usma1992]

I appreciate all those that provide me feedback and questions... it makes me better. It seems ... I only have a few that even follow this thread. I am doing the best I can ... and it feels like I am producing real results. I am hitting over 60%... is it just a faithful 5 or 6 ... are others out there that give a care whether I post.

I am trying to find out whether I really add value.

Dave

[Neek762]

Well the situation was betting odds in the high 1000's combined with 10% of the bankroll. I understand the model has proven to give a good edge, but just seems like a high ROR for me personally. 10% is a lot

[Optional]

What I'm trying to say lol is I think if you're going the ML route, you'll need to eventually parlay hedge, or bet enough to win a unit. Instead of betting $100, you'll need to bet to WIN $100. Not sure if that makes sense

I think this thinking is a bit of a Barnum & Baily mind trick bookmakers have pulled on bettors.

You should not blindly increase your risk size based on the odds. Risk should only be adjusted based on edge.

[bubba99]

Yesterday... was a nice little validation of the model. It wasn't that I went 2-0 in college on the night it was that on the FGCU vs E Kentucky... my system generated...

158 versus Vegas 143.

And people were betting the under because the line moved to 141. They hit 172...

Vegas wasn't close.

Dave

Nice work!

[usma1992]

No problem... glad you won. It was easy last night... 47-31...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	MARIST	75	SIENA	59		134	4	128.0		Away Minus	Too Close

[Sund]

Thank you for the winners ! Parlayed the 2 !

[usma1992]

Yesterday... was a nice little validation of the model. It wasn't that I went 2-0 in college on the night it was that on the FGCU vs E Kentucky... my system generated...

158 versus Vegas 143.

And people were betting the under because the line moved to 141. They hit 172...

Vegas wasn't close.

Dave