| Time | AWAY TEAM | PROJ AWAY SCORE | HOME TEAM | PROJ HOME SCORE | TOTAL | VEGAS SPREAD | VEGAS O/U | SPREAD BET | O/U BET | ||
| 8:00 PM | HOUSTON CHRISTIAN | 61 | TEXAS A&M CC | 83 | 144 | -11.5 | 151.0 | Home Minus | Under |
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I understand your question... I will try to address but I am running out the door right this second... I want to post tonight's games first. I appreciate your interest.
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W VIRGINIA 46 HOUSTON 83 129 -21 135.0 Too Close why are these considered 'Too Close' to make a bet? the 1st game has an algo spread of 37, and Vegas is -21. Even assuming 6 points more for W. Virginia and 6 less for Houston, its still 24. 2nd game is similar at the +/- 6 level. Seems very cautious, and then you run into the situation of not having anything to bet. There was an article on Medium a few weeks ago showing that some academics came up with a model that made sense and probably was legit in practice (there's always the "better in theory than in practice" issue with these sports betting models), but the # of bets was tiny. Extrapolated for a year, even $1000 bets would have generated a smallish net profit (I think like $40,000), not worth the time for a IT person in today's job market. The alternative is being part of (the 'brains') of a syndicate that can bet $10,000 or $100,000, but then you really are limited to betting in Vegas and going thru all the hassles that Billy Walters had to (sometimes moving the line in the 'wrong' direction on purpose in order to make a larger bet later, using runners to place bets). And of course a day of 8 losing bets (going to happen, 8 losses in a row at the blackjack table is common) means a loss potentially of $500,000. I wonder if Walters ill-conceived foray into insider trading wasn't due to some gambling losses, and he was looking to recoup some money quickly.IUPUI 59 YOUNGSTOWN ST 90 148 -18.5 147.5 Too Close Leave a comment:
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Optimistic for Sure... Tomorrows games... I am publishing all of them... to show you what my computer picked. Out of 17 Games... it didn't pick a single bet. I am going to stay my course.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 12:00 PM MICHIGAN 78 PENN ST 76 154 3.5 154.0 Too Close Too Close 1:00 PM WICHITA ST 76 TEMPLE 74 150 1 149.0 Too Close Too Close 1:00 PM MASSACHUSETTS 71 DAYTON 71 143 -8 148.5 Too Close Too Close 1:00 PM NIAGARA 68 IONA 79 147 -9.5 141.0 Too Close Too Close 1:30 PM IUPUI 59 YOUNGSTOWN ST 90 148 -18.5 147.5 Too Close Too Close 2:00 PM MARIST 69 FAIRFIELD 69 139 -2.5 133.5 Too Close Too Close 2:00 PM CANISIUS 78 RIDER 74 152 0 147.5 Too Close Too Close 2:00 PM MOUNT ST MARYS 67 ST PETERS 64 131 -2 129.5 Too Close Too Close 2:00 PM MANHATTAN 70 QUINNIPIAC 83 154 -10 151.0 Too Close Too Close 3:00 PM TULSA 70 E CAROLINA 69 139 -4.5 144.5 Too Close Too Close 3:00 PM INDIANA ST 80 N IOWA 73 153 2 156.0 Too Close Too Close 3:00 PM S FLORIDA 75 UAB 74 149 -3.5 150.0 Too Close Too Close 3:00 PM DRAKE 82 BELMONT 74 156 5.5 156.0 Too Close Too Close 4:00 PM N KENTUCKY 69 CLEVELAND ST 80 149 -4 147.0 Too Close Too Close 5:00 PM SMU 74 MEMPHIS 70 144 -7 149.0 Too Close Too Close 5:30 PM MARYLAND 66 MINNESOTA 73 139 -1 135.5 Too Close Too Close 7:30 PM MICHIGAN ST 73 NORTHWESTERN 68 141 2.5 135.0 Too Close Too Close 3:00 PM CHICAGO ST 59 UTEP 72 130 -9.5 131.0 Too Close Too Close Leave a comment:
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Algorithms crushed it today. 6-2 overall. A couple of close ones but I watched the games. Algorithms seem to be working 11-5 overall. ALL MY ALGORITHMS ARE BACK TESTED. So if they are picking winners moving forward, they also picked winners in the past.
Cautiously Optimistic... 11-5 though is pretty solid. The only game I plan to exam is the WVU Houston game. I was off. Western Illinois game was perfect in every direction.
DaveLeave a comment:
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FAIRFIELD crushed it. The algorithm I am using for Away -... is hitting 91% but rarely chooses a game. It bets less than 1% of the games. FAIRFIELD just happened to meet the tight criteria. They were Fairfield -4 and they won by 24. My over bets are tough too.
Just saw the lines are published... It takes me approximately 3 minutes to download all the data and then run my program. Unfortunately, none of my best algorithms have any published bets today. I am not sure how to take that. Is that a good thing? No OVERS, No AWAY -, No Away+. The other three algorithms aren't bad (Unders, Home+, Home-) but I need to work on them especially Home -... even though the results aren't bad. Here they are... I do like the under bets. FOR MODELING purposes.... whatever the end of regulation scores are... that is how they are recorded in my model. OT is disregarded. I don't care what happens in OT.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 2:00 PM W VIRGINIA 46 HOUSTON 83 129 -21 135.0 Too Close Under 3:00 PM TENNESSEE ST 64 MOREHEAD ST 79 143 -9 143.5 Home Minus Too Close 4:00 PM VIRGINIA TECH 70 FLORIDA ST 73 144 1 144.0 Home Plus Too Close 4:30 PM LINDENWOOD 61 W ILLINOIS 75 136 -8.5 136.0 Home Minus Under 6:00 PM CAL BAPTIST 61 SEATTLE 73 134 -6.5 136.0 Home Minus Too Close 8:00 PM SACRAMENTO ST 62 ST THOMAS (MN) 76 139 -9 132.0 Home Minus Too Close 8:00 PM HAWAII 69 CS-NORTHRIDGE 74 143 2 146.5 Home Plus Too Close Leave a comment:
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Went 1-3 Last night. One easy win... one disasterous loss... And a couple that I felt were bad beats... Nonetheless, 4-3 not changing the model because I watched the games. Washington St. shot 22% from the field in the first ten minutes and 0% from 3 point range. Disastrous. They still won by 7 but didn't cover the spread.
Only one bet tonight.
Fairfield -4.
DaveLeave a comment:
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Tonight's Bets...
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM C CONN ST 82 STONEHILL 66 148 6 141.0 Away Minus Too Close 7:00 PM CAMPBELL 79 N CAROLINA A&T 66 145 2.5 142.5 Away Minus Too Close 10:00 PM CS-FULLERTON 60 UC-IRVINE 79 139 -11.5 137.0 Home Minus Too Close 11:00 PM OREGON ST 58 WASHINGTON ST 76 134 -11 134.5 Home Minus Too Close Leave a comment:
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Starting to feel better about NCAAB second 10 day trial. It isn't picking very many games. But it is winning. Last nights picks were just 2 out of 38 games. But the both won 3-0 so far on this round. I will post NCAAB picks later today. Just got busy yesterday. NBA second 10 trial is 3-5 right now. I will keep working.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:30 PM UT-CHATTANOOGA 72 SAMFORD 87 160 -8 160.5 Home Minus Too Close 9:00 PM INDIANA 64 NEBRASKA 77 141 -5.5 151.0 Home Minus Too Close Leave a comment:
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Spent two days upgrading and back testing model... Starting new 10 day trial...
I will only post picks to make it easier to read. Unless you want me to post everything, I gladly will.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 9:00 PM CHARLOTTE 59 SMU 77 136 -8.5 134.0 Home Minus Too Close
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