Spent two days upgrading and back testing model... Starting new 10 day trial...

[Can U Tank It]

Thanks Dave! from a fellow veteran (Go Navy!!)

[usma1992]

About that time again...

I have a bunch of work ahead of me because the website... I was using went bankrupt.

I plan to have it up and running by Thanksgiving or there abouts. I will be posting it on my other thread.

Dave
MacktheTeach

[usma1992]

As College Football and NFL approaches, I know that College Basketball is just around the corner. I will start my picks around Thanksgiving. I hate that NBA continues to dominate me. Maybe I can tame that beast this year. Look at my college football and NFL picks and let me know what you think. I don't start betting until Week 4.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[jamesrav]

you might check out oddsportal.com to see how many international (pro) basketball leagues there are. Quite a lot. It would seem your model, if you can obtain the relevant data, should work there as well. It's probably year round, which is what any bettor focusing on a single sport looks for.

[usma1992]

I have to figure out what I am going to do. I typed in about 120 games that didn't have scored to get final reading. I ended over 73%. It went up not down.

Hoping that bodes well for next season. Maybe, I will just be shown... how far I am away. I learned a ton this season. A ton.

Dave

[jamesrav]

They should pay you for your service, you release picks, they bet at their own risk. Keep a record of the games, record of month / year ROI, maybe others will flock if profit is proven

exactly right, no way an originator should be handling other people's money and betting it. This is not a hedge fund, an "assets under management" type situation. That would be insane. Charge an appropriate fee per pick like it's always been done. In your case, they actually should have a legit chance to profit. (I will go out on a limb and say every Twitter, Tik tok, YT tout is a net loser on their picks).

[usma1992]

Preliminary Results for the Season...

335 bets placed... 244 won... net units 153... overall win percentage 72.84%.

I need to do some clean up but I'm ready for next season.

Dave

Still working on NBA... very tough.

[Neek762]

They should pay you for your service, you release picks, they bet at their own risk. Keep a record of the games, record of month / year ROI, maybe others will flock if profit is proven

[usma1992]

Neek,

Yes,... I was producing minimal games during 100+ days... then I loosened it up twice LOL. This loosen for March Madness is a third loosen just to have action.

Hey, JMU did exactly what the system said it would do. They not only covered, they won outright by about the same amount. I will process and get ready for next year.

I have 15 to 20 people willing to go in with me... I am not sure I should. That elevates my stress less x20... because now I am dealing with other peoples money. I did it 15 years ago. And lost people's money quickly. I lost 15-20K in like 6 weeks. It will be bigger this time.

But my program works... now... or at least two of them say they do....

Dave

[jamesrav]

how are the non star games doing? There are still quite a few of those. And those are a very good 'side test', since if they only break even (despite a fairly sizeable difference from Vegas), then there's a rather wide +/- 'fuzzy area' where no bets should be made. If they are profitable, you can begin to include them.

If not, then there are genuinely few or no preferred bet (at or around 60% win rate) opportunities ... meaning you'll have to test/add new factors to the model to perhaps draw out more chances. All sharp bettors on YT seem to favor NCAA basketball due to the sheer volume and possible inability of Vegas to maintain good lines day in and day out for all those games.

[Neek762]

How is that surprising? Remember when you were producing low projections on those 100~game days?

[usma1992]

My year long system... has only produced one bet out of 36 games...

JMU + the points. It actually had them winning out right by the numbers. Should I take this as a win? Not the game... obviously my system was dead on that game.

However, only producing one game during March Madness first couple of rounds seems weak.

Dave

[usma1992]

2024-03-22	NORTHWESTERN	74	FLA ATLANTIC	77		152	-2.5	142.5		Too Close	Over
12:40 PM	COLGATE	69	BAYLOR	77		146	-13.5	139.0		Away Plus	Over
1:45 PM	UAB	66	SAN DIEGO ST	76		142	-7	139.0		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	W KENTUCKY	70	MARQUETTE	81		151	-13.5	158.0		Away Plus	Under
2:45 PM	STETSON	61	CONNECTICUT	85		146	-24.5	144.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:10 PM	NEW MEXICO	77	CLEMSON	72		149	2	151.0		Away Minus	Too Close
4:15 PM	YALE	65	AUBURN	80		145	-13	140.5		Too Close	Over
4:30 PM	COLORADO	78	FLORIDA	81		158	-1.5	159.5		Too Close	Too Close
6:50 PM	TEXAS A&M	71	NEBRASKA	75		146	-1	147.5		Home Minus	Too Close
7:10 PM	VERMONT	67	DUKE	77		144	-11.5	132.5		Too Close	Over
7:25 PM	GRAMBLING	58	PURDUE	86		144	-26.5	140.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:35 PM	COLL OF CHARLESTON	78	ALABAMA	87		165	-9.5	174.0		Too Close	Under
9:20 PM	LONGWOOD	54	HOUSTON	81		135	-24.5	128.0		Too Close	Over
9:40 PM	JAMES MADISON	77	WISCONSIN	72		148	-5.5	145.0		Away Plus	Too Close
9:55 PM	TCU	75	UTAH ST	72		147	3.5	150.5		Too Close	Too Close
10:05 PM	GRAND CANYON	63	ST MARYS-CA	73		135	-5.5	132.5		Home Minus	Too Close

[usma1992]

2024-03-21	MICHIGAN ST	71	MISSISSIPPI ST	69		140	1	130.5		Too Close	Over
12:40 PM	DUQUESNE	66	BYU	79		145	-9.5	142.5		Home Minus	Too Close
1:30 PM	AKRON	68	CREIGHTON	79		147	-12.5	141.5		Too Close	Over
2:00 PM	LONG BEACH ST	66	ARIZONA	90		157	-20.5	161.5		Home Minus	Under
2:45 PM	WAGNER	59	N CAROLINA	83		141	-24.5	133.5		Too Close	Over
3:10 PM	MOREHEAD ST	72	ILLINOIS	77		149	-11.5	147.5		Away Plus	Too Close
4:00 PM	OREGON	70	S CAROLINA	73		143	-1.5	132.0		Too Close	Over
4:30 PM	NEVADA	70	DAYTON	70		139	1.5	137.0		Too Close	Too Close
6:50 PM	COLORADO ST	72	TEXAS	74		145	-2.5	144.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:10 PM	OAKLAND	73	KENTUCKY	90		163	-14	163.5		Home Minus	Too Close
7:25 PM	MCNEESE ST	72	GONZAGA	76		148	-6.5	150.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:35 PM	S DAKOTA ST	63	IOWA ST	79		142	-16.5	135.5		Too Close	Over
9:20 PM	ST PETERS	56	TENNESSEE	79		135	-21.5	130.5		Too Close	Over
9:40 PM	NC STATE	72	TEXAS TECH	76		147	-5	146.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:55 PM	SAMFORD	74	KANSAS	74		148	-7.5	152.5		Away Plus	Under
10:05 PM	DRAKE	73	WASHINGTON ST	73		146	1.5	138.0		Too Close	Over

[RM Logic]

Scrap ALL THOSE PICKS ABOVE!!!! I was heading to dentist.

Lol. Just got back from the dentist. Never enjoyable. Same old- you need to floss. Which I never do.

Seriously the lines are just really tight.
The only game I really like is Samford +7.5, Kansas is a mess and the game is at altitude which helps Samford who plays alot of guys. Kansas has no bench.

[usma1992]

Scrap ALL THOSE PICKS ABOVE!!!! I was heading to dentist.

[usma1992]

2024-03-22	NORTHWESTERN	76	FLA ATLANTIC	77		153	-2.5	142.5		Too Close	Over
12:40 PM	COLGATE	68	BAYLOR	77		145	-13.5	139.0		Away Plus	Over
1:45 PM	UAB	64	SAN DIEGO ST	76		140	-7	139.0		Home Minus	Too Close
2:00 PM	W KENTUCKY	70	MARQUETTE	81		151	-13.5	158.0		Too Close	Under
2:45 PM	STETSON	51	CONNECTICUT	85		137	-24.5	144.5		Home Minus	Under
3:10 PM	NEW MEXICO	82	CLEMSON	72		154	2	151.0		Away Minus	Too Close
4:15 PM	YALE	61	AUBURN	80		140	-13	140.5		Home Minus	Too Close
4:30 PM	COLORADO	82	FLORIDA	81		163	-1.5	159.5		Too Close	Too Close
6:50 PM	TEXAS A&M	71	NEBRASKA	75		146	-1	147.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:10 PM	VERMONT	64	DUKE	77		141	-11.5	132.5		Too Close	Over
7:25 PM	GRAMBLING	44	PURDUE	86		129	-26.5	140.5		Home Minus	Under
7:35 PM	COLL OF CHARLESTON	83	ALABAMA	87		170	-9.5	174.0		Away Plus	Under
9:20 PM	LONGWOOD	31	HOUSTON	81		112	-24.5	128.0		Home Minus	Under
9:40 PM	JAMES MADISON	80	WISCONSIN	72		152	-5.5	145.0		Away Plus	Over
9:55 PM	TCU	77	UTAH ST	72		148	3.5	150.5		Too Close	Too Close
10:05 PM	GRAND CANYON	55	ST MARYS-CA	73		128	-5.5	132.5		Home Minus	Under

[usma1992]

Loosened it up for March Madness...

2024-03-21	MICHIGAN ST	71	MISSISSIPPI ST	69		140	1	130.5		Too Close	Over
12:40 PM	DUQUESNE	63	BYU	79		143	-9.5	142.5		Home Minus	Too Close
1:30 PM	AKRON	67	CREIGHTON	79		146	-12.5	141.5		Too Close	Over
2:00 PM	LONG BEACH ST	64	ARIZONA	90		154	-20.5	161.5		Home Minus	Under
2:45 PM	WAGNER	45	N CAROLINA	83		128	-24.5	133.5		Home Minus	Under
3:10 PM	MOREHEAD ST	72	ILLINOIS	77		149	-11.5	147.5		Away Plus	Too Close
4:00 PM	OREGON	71	S CAROLINA	73		143	-1.5	132.0		Too Close	Over
4:30 PM	NEVADA	70	DAYTON	70		139	1.5	137.0		Too Close	Too Close
6:50 PM	COLORADO ST	72	TEXAS	74		145	-2.5	144.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:10 PM	OAKLAND	73	KENTUCKY	90		163	-14	163.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:25 PM	MCNEESE ST	72	GONZAGA	76		148	-6.5	150.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:35 PM	S DAKOTA ST	55	IOWA ST	79		134	-16.5	135.5		Home Minus	Too Close
9:20 PM	ST PETERS	37	TENNESSEE	79		116	-21.5	130.5		Home Minus	Under
9:40 PM	NC STATE	72	TEXAS TECH	76		147	-5	146.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:55 PM	SAMFORD	75	KANSAS	74		150	-7.5	152.5		Away Plus	Too Close
10:05 PM	DRAKE	73	WASHINGTON ST	73		146	1.5	138.0		Too Close	Over

[jamesrav]

MOREHEAD ST

72

ILLINOIS

77

149

-11.5

so a game like this doesn't achieve a 3* star rating, even though your 5pt differential is quite different than Vegas' 11.5 ? Is there a 'margin for error' value you factor in at the very end that really decides things? I'm not a spread bettor, but in watching a lot of these YT vids, it seems like the sharp bettors make decisions based on just a .5 or 1 pt differential (that they prefer). Does back-testing show that within the margin for error it's not profitable, or is that a 'gut-based' decision?

[usma1992]

I understand... my system... may not be built for march madness but after the year I have had... I will gladly bow out of having picks. I highlighted the ones that I think the model says you should consider.

Dave

[Neek762]

Amazed how many of my spreads are within a point or two of Vegas. I must have done something right. Good Luck to all during march madness.

Dave

That's not always a good thing though since the line gets sharper as the day goes on and as action from
sharps come in. When your line differs is when your edge shows. One originator I follow had Wagner favored by -4.5 last night for example so he had clear value on Wagner+. Harder to tell your edge when it's close to "Vegas"

[usma1992]

Amazed how many of my spreads are within a point or two of Vegas. I must have done something right. Good Luck to all during march madness.

Dave

[Neek762]

Interested on the James Madison line ... Alan Boston was and probably still is huge on +5.5 and once he made that statement there was huge line movement in their favor but now it's back at +5.5

[usma1992]

Based on this data... the games worth looking at are


BYU-
Morehead St+
McNeese St+
Samford+
JMU+

Haven't looked at Over/Unders.

Dave

[usma1992]

NIT Saturday and Sunday

2024-03-23	BETHUNE-COOKMAN	69	ARKANSAS ST	79		148	-12.5	153.0		Too Close	Under 3*
3:30 PM	CHICAGO ST	64	CAL SAN DIEGO	77		142	-11	141.0		Too Close	Too Close
6:00 PM	DELAWARE ST	61	SEATTLE	77		138	-13	136.5		Too Close	Too Close
2024-03-24	CLEVELAND ST	79	N COLORADO	76		155	0	157.5		Too Close	Too Close
1:30 PM	PRESBYTERIAN	70	MONTANA	76		146	-8	151.0		Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	ARK-LITTLE ROCK	75	FAIRFIELD	75		149	0	152.5		Too Close	Too Close
6:30 PM	EVANSVILLE	72	QUINNIPIAC	79		150	-2.5	154.0		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

March Madness Friday... Excluding play in games...

2024-03-22	NORTHWESTERN	74	FLA ATLANTIC	77		152	-2.5	142.5		Too Close	Too Close
12:40 PM	COLGATE	69	BAYLOR	77		146	-13.5	139.0		Too Close	Too Close
1:45 PM	UAB	66	SAN DIEGO ST	76		142	-7	139.0		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	W KENTUCKY	70	MARQUETTE	81		151	-13.5	158.0		Too Close	Too Close
2:45 PM	STETSON	61	CONNECTICUT	85		146	-24.5	144.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:10 PM	NEW MEXICO	77	CLEMSON	72		149	2	151.0		Too Close	Too Close
4:15 PM	YALE	65	AUBURN	80		145	-13	140.5		Too Close	Too Close
6:50 PM	TEXAS A&M	71	NEBRASKA	75		146	-1	147.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:10 PM	VERMONT	67	DUKE	77		144	-11.5	132.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:35 PM	COLL OF CHARLESTON	78	ALABAMA	87		165	-9.5	174.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:20 PM	LONGWOOD	54	HOUSTON	81		135	-24.5	128.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:40 PM	JAMES MADISON	77	WISCONSIN	72		148	-5.5	145.0		Away Plus 4*	Too Close
9:55 PM	TCU	75	UTAH ST	72		147	3.5	150.5		Too Close	Too Close
10:05 PM	GRAND CANYON	63	ST MARYS-CA	73		135	-5.5	132.5		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

March Madness Thursday..

2024-03-21	MICHIGAN ST	71	MISSISSIPPI ST	69		140	1	130.5		Too Close	Too Close
12:40 PM	DUQUESNE	66	BYU	79		145	-9.5	142.5		Too Close	Too Close
1:30 PM	AKRON	68	CREIGHTON	79		147	-12.5	141.5		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	LONG BEACH ST	66	ARIZONA	90		157	-20.5	161.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:10 PM	MOREHEAD ST	72	ILLINOIS	77		149	-11.5	147.5		Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	OREGON	70	S CAROLINA	73		143	-1.5	132.0		Too Close	Too Close
4:30 PM	NEVADA	70	DAYTON	70		139	1.5	137.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:10 PM	OAKLAND	73	KENTUCKY	90		163	-14	163.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:25 PM	MCNEESE ST	72	GONZAGA	76		148	-6.5	150.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:35 PM	S DAKOTA ST	63	IOWA ST	79		142	-16.5	135.5		Too Close	Too Close
9:20 PM	ST PETERS	56	TENNESSEE	79		135	-21.5	130.5		Too Close	Too Close
9:40 PM	NC STATE	72	TEXAS TECH	76		147	-5	146.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:55 PM	SAMFORD	74	KANSAS	74		148	-7.5	152.5		Too Close	Too Close
10:05 PM	DRAKE	73	WASHINGTON ST	73		146	1.5	138.0		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

NIT and March Madness Data... my spreads and totals are very close to Vegas most of the time... but I am posting all the games...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
2024-03-19	WAGNER	69	HOWARD	70		139	-3	128.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	N TEXAS	71	LSU	70		141	-2.5	135.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	BOSTON COLLEGE	72	PROVIDENCE	73		146	-3.5	138.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	XAVIER	75	GEORGIA	74		150	-1.5	152.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	CORNELL	74	OHIO ST	78		152	-10.5	155.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	RICHMOND	72	VIRGINIA TECH	71		143	-5.5	143.5		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	MINNESOTA	74	BUTLER	79		153	-3.5	147.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	S FLORIDA	68	UCF	71		139	-4.5	140.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	KANSAS ST	73	IOWA	79		152	-6	157.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:10 PM	COLORADO ST	67	VIRGINIA	67		134	2.5	120.5		Too Close	Too Close
11:00 PM	UC-IRVINE	73	UTAH	77		150	-7.5	148.0		Too Close	Too Close
2024-03-20	GRAMBLING	68	MONTANA ST	74		142	-4	135.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	ST JOSEPHS	72	SETON HALL	74		145	-7	145.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	SMU	74	INDIANA ST	77		150	-7	156.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	LOYOLA-IL	68	BRADLEY	72		140	-4.5	137.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	UNLV	69	PRINCETON	73		142	-3	138.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	APPALACHIAN ST	72	WAKE FOREST	76		148	-7	145.5		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	SAN FRANCISCO	72	CINCINNATI	75		147	-6	142.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	VA COMMONWEALTH	65	VILLANOVA	70		135	-6	131.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:10 PM	COLORADO	74	BOISE ST	72		146	2.5	140.5		Too Close	Too Close

[Neek762]

I think the "different conditions" boils down to being variance + neutral courts, which can be a reason why weird shit happens ... there is something to be said about fading line movement these past couple weeks and how many 1 seeds were booted. I could be wrong, but I'm assuming compiling normal home + away data is too far off when trying to originate for neutral court games. I noticed a lot of "gambling twitter" that rely on algos and models weren't doing so hot these past couple weeks when they were killing it in Feb, which was my worst month lol. Steven Golden even had to go private on twitter because he was losing his ass so hard and there's guys paying him for picks.

[jamesrav]

Also, weird shit happens in March. Line manipulation going on factored in with human error in high importance games!

that's an interesting heuristic built up over years of astute observation ... or it's wrong . If demonstrated by data, then the model has to be adjusted to account for different conditions (ie the time of the year). I'm sure Dave is not overjoyed to hear that may be the case. As he has asked "does the NBA start playing defense after the all star game?", it shows that trying to map reality to a dozen basic stats may not be good enough if things are (historically) known to change at certain points in a season. But I recall testing some opinions a life-long hockey bettor had (eg home teams on a homestand do exceptionally well after losing the 1st game badly) and none panned out in terms of making money. They may have been somewhat true, but the lines also adjusted.

[usma1992]

Thanks for the catch.... my betting website changed their names from St. Peter's to St. Peters. Both of those games were no bets.

It grabbed St. Josephs stats. No wonder my lines were so off. Enjoy

No bets today.

[RM Logic]

St Peters is playing Fairfield ... Joes play VCU

and yesterday you had Peters and Joes swapped playing Quinnipiac

St. Peter's couldnt score 75 points if they played 3 halves. They are the ultimate slow slug horrible offense.

[usma1992]

Thank you... names are absolutely tied to data... but it is very difficult managing multiple websites and their nomenclature.

Dave

[Neek762]

St Peters is playing Fairfield ... Joes play VCU

and yesterday you had Peters and Joes swapped playing Quinnipiac

[usma1992]

Be specific...