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Both 5* hit again. UVA OT game ... I take as a loss 2-3 yesterday. Here are todays bets...
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 1:00 PM MISSISSIPPI ST 65 AUBURN 78 143 -7.5 143.5 Home Minus 5* Too Close 6:00 PM IOWA ST 61 HOUSTON 72 133 -5 121.0 Home Minus 5* Too Close 7:30 PM ST JOSEPHS 75 FAIRFIELD 76 151 -2.5 128.5 Too Close Over 4* Leave a comment:
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Also, weird shit happens in March. Line manipulation going on factored in with human error in high importance games!Leave a comment:
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Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 2:30 PM WISCONSIN 73 NORTHWESTERN 74 147 4 136.0 Home Plus 4* Too Close 3:00 PM MIDDLE TENN ST 67 W KENTUCKY 78 145 -6 147.0 Home Minus 5* Too Close 6:30 PM ST JOSEPHS 74 QUINNIPIAC 77 151 -2 136.0 Too Close Over 4* 7:00 PM TEXAS TECH 59 HOUSTON 77 137 -9 132.0 Home Minus 5* Too Close 9:30 PM NC STATE 66 VIRGINIA 71 137 -2.5 121.5 Too Close Over 4* Leave a comment:
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This is my honest assessment of the Rider game. So the Rider bet was way off last night... but here is my take. The average possessions for St.Joes is 50.5 with my (proprietary) points per shot of 1.28 which is different from normal PPS slightly which equates to 76.18. The average possessions for Rider is 60 with my proprietary points per shot of 1.21 which equates to 72.6. So the obvious question is what happened?
Was the pace of play that bad? St. Joes had 52 shots and Rider had 58 shots. If you multiply that by their average pps, they come up with 66.56 points and 70 points for a rough total of 137. So even taking into account... less shot totals then normal... they still hit the over.
However, both teams shot below 30% which is crazy. 3-13 from 3 Point range versus 2-15 from 3 Point range.
So the next question is whether their defenses are that good. I looked at all the defensive statistics and their defenses aren't great... average at best. So my final analysis they both just couldn't hit a thing ... not a bad bet... they just both sucked. This is what I do on games that way off.
I stand by my bet. This is type of bet that I just chalk up to gambling... I make zero adjustments and don't even consider any adjustments.
Hopefully this is the type of analysis that keeps me successful.
DaveLast edited by usma1992; 03-15-24, 12:50 PM.Leave a comment:
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Some big games today... 5*
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 3:00 PM TCU 62 HOUSTON 78 140 -10 137.5 Home Minus 5* Too Close 6:30 PM NIAGARA 66 MARIST 68 134 1 129.0 Home Plus 3* Too Close 7:00 PM KANSAS ST 62 IOWA ST 74 136 -6.5 132.5 Home Minus 5* Too Close 9:00 PM ST JOSEPHS 75 RIDER 73 149 0 129.5 Too Close Over 4* Leave a comment:
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Trying to handicap the NBA is futile. It is a garbage product.
It is the only sport where players dont put forth acceptable effort.
You never know who is going to play or how many minutes certain players are going to play.
Then you have the unacceptable lack of effort on defense where they just let each other score. There are games where players dont even put their hands up to contest shots. Its let your good buddy score then I will score at the other end.
Half the regular season games dont matter so the players dont care.
Then you have the bogus officiating where certain players dont ever get called for traveling or carrying the ball. Fouls are called at a random, nonsense approach. When you have 10 missed called in the last 2 minutes of a game its just sickening to watch.
Word got out that that weirdo commish Silver and the board finally had enough of the 150-140 games and met with the teams to tell them to start guarding and playing harder after the break or there would be consequences.Leave a comment:
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I will be conducting a presentation to the bettors in my area to put them at ease. I'll already have a small team... I might just stick with that team and highlight picks on here or a website I design... we shall see...
NBA is still a disaster. I can't tell if the game changes after the NBA All Star game. It seems like teams start playing defense.
DaveLeave a comment:
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I agree with providing explanations, especially if you're originating. It'll help the blind bettors feel more confident about giving up their money lolLeave a comment:
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the "charging crazy amounts" is the problem, keep it affordable along with a somewhat detailed explanation of why a recommendation is being made (show a confidence interval, explain why it was a good bet even if it loses). And always include the tag line "ultimately the decision is yours". Or re-locate to Vegas during the NCAA basketball season and bet (a backer's money) big.Leave a comment:
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Right Angle Sports .... betting group that is / what respected and is a group of guys like you working together and they got buried this NCAAB season and started getting heat for losing while charging crazy amount to subscribe. Then they took time off, to reset I assume. Can't do that when people are paying you. You'll have to be able to manage that incredible stressLeave a comment:
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Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:30 PM SAINT LOUIS 66 DUQUESNE 76 143 -8 146.0 Too Close Under 3* 9:30 PM ALABAMA ST 71 GRAMBLING 66 137 -2 128.5 Away Plus 3* Too Close Leave a comment:
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Tread lightly with becoming a tout ... there's being able to handle losing, and then there's being able to handle losing with people coming for your neck when your locks aren't locking because they don't understand how sports betting works ... look at RAS for example this NCAAB seasonLeave a comment:
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jamesrav...
I have been working on modeling for about 15 years... I have taken breaks for sure... I have broken computers... I have tried several approaches and since I am a one man shop... I have had to endure learning the hard way ... over and over and over again.
A Quant may be right that I have no idea what I am doing... however, my methods and approach for the first time ever are now yielding results.
When games win... I analyze whether I was right... I don't accept the win... just because it won. Conversely, if I lose... I am fair on whether I deserved to lose. What did I miss or did I deserve to win?
That is why I am so stern on the OT rule. If you are modeling ... what does OT have to do with a win or loss. NOTHING. You must disregard anomalies.
I think RUNBOOKRUN was on my side on his post.
2) The motive is benevolent. The scientific/artistic mind is simply tries to interpret, find an obscure pattern in the tessellation of final scores. This is achieved by asking questions. "what happened?".. "why were the books so off?".. "how did the books predict that precise outcome?".. he is simply sharing observations made. It's all part of the process. It is not finished work.
This is how my models have developed and delivered over time. The numbers are the first piece but analyzing individual games is what is making my program work.
Fifteen years ago... I had two buddies give me 10K a piece. I lost it in a matter of 4 months. Since then... I have had a few people give me a grand or two but only recently since it is working... people are noticing.
Now, I have 20 people lined up to give me 1-5K a piece... for a trial next fall with college football and then leading into college basketball. It does make me nervous... no doubt.
DaveLeave a comment:
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good to hear you are getting a following, anyone who might be able to achieve 60% wins will certainly get attention from bettors. That's where the real money is of course, offering tips. 500 people @$10/per month (or whatever combo makes the most) is pretty nice. You might continue on the basketball model with the pro leagues around the world It does then put you into a stressful position, knowing your advice is being used. As the quant hedge fund guy Cliff Asness admitted in an interview during strong periods "I'd wake up a couple times a year in a sweat wondering 'Maybe we've just been lucky' ". And he was (and is) managing nearly 100 BILLION of client funds (down from 230 billion). Had some horrible quarters too. But he's still in business, so enough people must be satisfied.Leave a comment:
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I don't have 1* and 2* games... the lowest I go is 3*. I grab the lines typically around 9-10AM Eastern Standard Time... However, Saturday games... I can typically get the night before around 10PM Friday night.
My following is picking up locally where I live. People are reaching out to me asking when my picks are coming out.
Did you bet JMU game? The William & Mary... Houston and JMU were all 5* bets and none of the games were even close. At the end of the season I will look at whether 3 star bets are worth keeping. They provide action... but if the action is generating losing bets... then it is obviously not worth it.
DaveLeave a comment:
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can you retroactively go back and label all games with the new star system? (which I assume goes 1 to 5). If 5* does indeed do better than 4* (and 3*, etc) in a linear fashion, that would be nice confirmation that your 'signal' is accurate. If 1* does nearly as well as 5*, and 2* does better than 4*, that would be troubling ... but if the core (any star rated game) is positive ROI, then it doesn't really matter.
You have your lines done the night before, so are your Vegas lines the opening lines or many hours later? As one guy on a vid mentioned, if you are betting against opening lines, your predictions only have to be "less bad" than a sports book Head of Risk who may be creating lines based on a number that just pops into his head.Leave a comment:
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Nice easy 5* win last night... Game wasn't close. They were up by 30 at one point.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 9:00 PM GONZAGA 71 ST MARYS-CA 72 144 3 139.0 Home Plus 3* Too Close 9:00 PM NICHOLLS ST 64 TEXAS A&M CC 74 139 -4 139.0 Home Minus 5* Too Close Leave a comment:
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I believe that you fail to understand two aspects of this:
1) the creative mind at work. These are lab experiments, exploration. What if there was a reliable method of evaluating statistics handicappers might employ to even the odds.. or perhaps reverse the odds?
2) The motive is benevolent. The scientific/artistic mind is simply tries to interpret, find an obscure pattern in the tessellation of final scores. This is achieved by asking questions. "what happened?".. "why were the books so off?".. "how did the books predict that precise outcome?".. he is simply sharing observations made. It's all part of the process. It is not finished work.
my guess is that he's probably onto something.Leave a comment:
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To answer your question about -4.5 ... if they covered in OT would I count that as a win... NO. If they didn't cover in regulation, I count it as a loss. In addition, if I bet the over and it only covered using OT... that is also a loss. Anyway, only one pick today... But it is a 5 star.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM ARKANSAS ST 71 JAMES MADISON 83 154 -5.5 152.5 Home Minus 5* Too Close Leave a comment:
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adding to evening out ^ another reason why ROI is just as important if not more important than W/L %.Leave a comment:
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the important thing is it should even out over time, both for the model and money. If it does not , then the model is not judging something correctly, and what you assume is 'out of my hands' is in fact something that should be considered and modelled for. As an extreme, absurd example (but illustrates the point), what if data showed that every 0 spread NCAA game in history ended in a tie after regulation. If your model didn't automatically add 20 or so points to your predicted total (since OT is essentially guaranteed for that scenario), your model would be missing a major factor. You would deserve to lose those games. It wouldn't just be a case of 'out of my hands' after all. It seems like ties have cropped up a few times in your results.
At this point, how many ties in regulation have gone in your favor vs. against you?Leave a comment:
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I think you are arguing both sides at the same time. You are saying not to worry about losses, while counting your losses as a win. Why not just count it as a loss? You said it yourself the model can still be working but you can still lose. It's a loss, and you're on to the next wager. If your model predicted Side A covering -4.5 and they went to OT but still managed to cover -4.5, would you count it as a loss since they didn't cover in reg time? Hell no that's a win
I'm not sure about basketball, but pretty sure all books allow time results. Maybe you don't bet on other sports, I don't know. I was talking about sports betting as a whole not just basketball since all sports can be earned onLeave a comment:
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Again... I disagree with you... if you focus on the betting window... you will lose. Focus on whether the program predicted the right outcome. In regulation time.... my program not only predicted the outcome... it crushed it.
And yes... I can't take my ticket to the window... but who cares... the point is to take you ticket to the window more often than not.
And yes... you are going to lose games but who cares... if you got all your money in as a heavy favorite. I played in the world series of poker.. was a 65% favorite in the hand I got knocked out on.
If you worry about cashing tickets... you will lose.
What site... allows you to bet regulation time. Can you provide me with info?
Dave
THE TEACHLast edited by usma1992; 03-10-24, 01:27 PM.Leave a comment:
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You can disagree but you can't take your ticket to the window and asked to get paid out winnings because your wager would have won if it didn't go to overtime is what I'm getting atLeave a comment:
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I definitely going to disagree with you ... on this subject... I can only model based on a standard time frame. If bad things happen they happen. I have never seen a regulation time wager... ever. What site do you use? Please show me a site that allows a regulation time bet.
If I lose because I suck or win because I suck... I am very fair with my assessments. Ultimately, I believe that is why I will win. Just because I win doesn't mean I was right... and just because I lose doesn't mean I was wrong.
Dave
THE TEACHLeave a comment:
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They are still losses in the world of betting. One of the reasons they offer game result wagers and regulation time wagers. Have to be honest with yourself when it comes to stuff like thatLeave a comment:
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Games today... So the 5* won easily... and the 4* Bama game won easily... I understand there will be an argument I lost that game. However, when modeling... I only look at the end of regulation time. If the game goes into OT or 2 OTs... I can't control that, no one can. It was almost 30 points under the end of regulation. Even Western Carolina +1, the other 4 star bet won in regulation... because they tied. The 3 star bets weren't good... I will tighten them up. They are too loose. I will analyze whether it is worth loosing it up. Have I gained value or lost value... I don't know.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 2:30 PM TOWSON ST 70 UNC-WILMINGTON 75 144 -2.5 130.0 Too Close Over 4* 3:00 PM SMU 79 UAB 71 150 -1.5 152.5 Away Plus 3* Too Close Leave a comment:
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Yeah top down all the way. Used to model but put my ego aside and accepting my modeling and data analysis will never sniff the sack of the pros. Hit a cold streak last month and some horrible bad beats, but still healthily up 2024 overall. Went 19-7 for +11u today! Being able to do that without inputing any stats or look up little data besides maybe kenpom, is nice.Leave a comment:
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They will find it and void it. Happens all the time.
VERY lousy outcome from yesterday’s picks. What saved me was a huge ML Parlay.Leave a comment:
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to me, once the person interviewed pivots to the "teach the recreational bettor" via a podcast or YT, it means their own efforts at beating the sports books via data/model hasn't worked or is not worth the time. I've yet to see one interview where the guy goes into details on what his model uses as factors. Don't need to give away anything 'proprietary', but it would be interesting to hear some success stories that explain the concepts. Are they doing just data analysis, or actually applying known ML techniques ? If you weren't aware, you are an 'Originator' and use the 'Bottom Up' technique, rather than the Top Down concept, whereby guys who apparently 'kind of' share info about line discrepancies and try to exploit that.
Funny one yesterday: one guy on the panel (all friends) found a huge opportunity on a DFS site (offering parlays, which I suspect is totally illegal) and had a big payday due to a major mis-understanding of Golf correlation by the site. His friend made an even bigger killing on the same play. One guy said he didn't want to tell his friends of the opportunity since he suspected the offering was a mistake and would be voided or what not. Sure ! I was trying to protect my friends ! Awkward.Leave a comment:
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