Spent two days upgrading and back testing model... Starting new 10 day trial...

[Neek762]

I don't think jamesrav is saying stop what you're doing, but there are pro-bettors out there that work
with a group of other bettors + originators to be able to gain an edge on a sport. Plus they do it non stop, in shifts, around the clock. Access to data and info that we don't, access to books and accounts that we don't. It's just too much volume for one person to handle efficiently day in and day out

[RM Logic]

Ridiculous game- Alabama-Arkansas. I actually played the 2nd half under 93. It should have been an easy winner with under 70 points with less than a minute left. Of course it goes OT and they score 32 points in 5 penetrating minutes. There are OT games where teams dont even score 15.

[usma1992]

Modeling wise... Arkansas/Alabama... was an easy under bet... but the Under lost in OT. The right bet ... just unlucky.

Dave

[usma1992]

jamesrav... which means what... I just want to see if I can do it... don't get me wrong... I can use more money in my pocket so I don't have to teach summer school.

What does it say?

Despite ... what others say... my college football worked... the last four weeks and worked well. NFL is tough... but I am not convinced NBA isn't tougher. But trying on both. I believe I can get 4 models working... because I am smart enough and don't give up easy...
Dave

[jamesrav]

trying to create models for a variety of sports seems impossible, focusing on NCAA basketball seems the most promising. The well known bettor Spanky agrees NCAA basketball is the best opportunity for betting in general, so that probably holds for coming up with your own numbers. But its well known that the sports books severely limit bet size on opening lines (when they are most vulnerable) so you face the issue of perhaps being able to beat some opening line, but cant get a decent sized bet down.

after watching a whole lot of YT vids from the serious sports bettors, the desire to sell info or 'teach' seems to be prevalent. That pretty much says it all.

[usma1992]

A Quant... do what you need to do...

to the board. My process with college football was the same as it was here. I continued to develop the algorithms week by week. It is more difficult with college football because of minimal games. Each week ... I did update and back test looking for a sweet spot or weakness in Vegas. As you develop and upgrade a model that is what you are supposed to do. The last 4 weeks of college football, I crushed it because of my efforts... similar to what I am doing here.

A Quant are one of the guys that can't do, so rip apart the people trying. You critic to a gnat's ass... when the system failed... and when it started to become successful... you either glossed over it or disappeared. And when you said it can't be accomplished... I said I have been through far tougher things like house fire.. losing students to suicide and accidents... living in an RV in Alaska at 50 below... this is slight work. You stated much smarter people have tried and failed.

BTW ... who names them self... A QUANT on a message board. Someone that thinks... he is above the rest of us and again can't be done. Well, I am doing it.

My personal messages followed your bs critique from someone not trying. I stopped when you asked me to stop as I asked you to stop bs critique. The only recent message I sent you was FEB 11... a month ago... I SAID >>> in reference to TOBY KEITH... How do you like me now?

Glad to see I am winning... lol... should I post your response to my FEB 11th TOBY KEITH message. I am above that.

Sorry to bother the board with petty BS.

Dave
My favorite Speech Ever
THE MAN IN THE ARENA... Teddy Roosevelt

[usma1992]

Good Luck ... not sure about the Houston 5 star... but I have given up ... not believing in the system. My favorite bet is the Western Carolina. But I have learned... just let it roll.

Dave

[A Quant]

Glad to see you are "winning".

Because you went 39% in college football, you lost your ass.

Are you still "tweaking" your system, and "re-starting" every week?

For those of you not aware-- "Dave" had a thread in college football and HE GOT CRUSHED.

And every week that he continued to lose, he would "Start a new system".

And-- he sends really crazy private messages.

Why am I posting this now?

Because Dave continues-- and I told him to stop---- sending me crazy private messages.

I'll post them all later. You have no idea how insane they are.

[TheGoldenGoose]

Thanks usma. I will play them all !!!

[Yensel]

This is awesome! Thank you for the ratings and projected scores and for putting them up early!

[usma1992]

Tomorrow's Games... All I can say is wow... I like the Western Carolina bet...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	ARKANSAS	69	ALABAMA	89		157	-14.5	174.0		Too Close	Under 4*
3:00 PM	UTAH TECH	65	SF AUSTIN ST	76		140	-10	144.0		Too Close	Under 3*
4:00 PM	KANSAS	61	HOUSTON	76		137	-8	137.0		Home Minus 5*	Too Close
4:30 PM	FLORIDA	86	VANDERBILT	66		152	10	151.0		Away Minus 3*	Too Close
5:30 PM	BOSTON COLLEGE	82	LOUISVILLE	70		152	3.5	151.0		Away Minus 4*	Too Close
6:00 PM	CAL DAVIS	72	LONG BEACH ST	72		144	-1.5	147.5		Too Close	Under 3*
8:30 PM	MISSOURI	70	LSU	77		146	-7.50	151.0		Too Close	Under 3*
8:30 PM	FURMAN	74	W CAROLINA	79		153	1.00	147.5		Home Plus 4*	Too Close
9:00 PM	OKLAHOMA ST	65	BYU	85		149	-13.50	152.5		Too Close	Under 3*
4:00 PM	ARK-PINE BLUFF	76	ALCORN ST	77		153	-8.00	155.0		Away Plus 3*	Too Close

[usma1992]

Sorry... thought I posted... I was scrambling to pick up my son from college. I came up with a rating scheme so the bets are easier to read. 5* best bet 4* next then of course 3*. Bet accordingly. Had a rare 5* bet today but the game is already over sorry. I had to place my bet through a bookie because we can't bet Virginia Teams. Hope ratings help...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
2:00 PM	WM & MARY	78	N CAROLINA A&T	67		145	5	138.0		Away Minus 5*	Too Close
11:30 PM	LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT	83	PORTLAND	70		153	5.5	143.5		Away Minus 3*	Too Close

[usma1992]

Something... definitely is up with the Temple game... Do you think that's the reason? Starters missing... that is a monster move.

Dave

[Yensel]

Thank you very much, Dave. My guess was L was for "lean," but Loose is clearly most appropriate. Will proceed as suggested.

[RM Logic]

The UAB- Temple line has moved from -2.5 to -8.
Temple must have starters out of this game to have the line move this much.

[usma1992]

So I have taken my program... from a very tight filter to loosening once then loosening again... so I have essentially three types of bets.

Filtered if you see an F. That is my tightest bet with the most restrictions. If you check over the course of the last several weeks there have been 1 or 2 at the most. Vegas has tightened their odds. So I opened it up on Jan 25th for some more picks.

If you see a T at the end that means it is a 4 Star Pick that means it is Unfiltered but fairly Tight. Those picks are drying up also, so I launched a third version which has done surprisingly well lately.

If it ends in an L ... they are my loosest picks. The Temple spread has moved huge against me so I suspect that is a loss... but we will see. Hope that explains... I may get to the point I just use star ratings.

Dave

[Yensel]

Been following closely, and I know that the U stands for unfiltered. What does the U means, as ion UL?

[usma1992]

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	UAB	73	TEMPLE	74		147	2.5	142.0		Home Plus U L	Too Close
8:00 PM	UTAH VALLEY ST	65	TARLETON ST	72		137	-6.5	140.5		Too Close	Under U L
7:30 PM	COPPIN ST	64	MORGAN ST	75		138	-9	142.0		Too Close	Under U L
7:30 PM	S CAROLINA ST	64	NC CENTRAL	75		140	-7.5	143.5		Too Close	Under U L

[usma1992]

All the bets I am tracking and posting my results for are Spreads and Totals which are essentially -110 on all of them. I DO NOT INCLUDE MONEYLINE BETS in my total wins and losses... so ROI isn't hard to calculate.

My win loss totals are on -110 bets.

Dave

[Neek762]

Again, you will have to pick a system, track and grade wagers for the system, and see the results over at least a 500 wager sample size. The Win / Loss will ALWAYS vary no matter what. Track ROI. 10 won $100 wagers on -300 favorites is different than 10 won $100 wagers on spreads / totals

[usma1992]

So I reached a compromise with myself on loosening vs. tightening... I will proceed the next few weeks with the loosened formula to generate more bets... Today's loosening only added a few more bets. I looked at last Saturday... and if I had loosened it ... I would have been 10-2 instead ... I think I was 8-5. I am battling internally... because I want to produce winning bets... but if I can produce any bets... the system is worthless.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	S INDIANA	66	TENNESSEE ST	70		136	-3.5	143.5		Too Close	Under U L
9:00 PM	VANDERBILT	65	KENTUCKY	92		157	-17.5	161.5		Parlay ML	Under U L
7:00 PM	LONG ISLAND	60	MERRIMACK	73		134	-15	140.0		Too Close	Under U L

[usma1992]

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	S INDIANA	66	TENNESSEE ST	70		136	-3.5	143.5		Too Close	Under U L
9:00 PM	VANDERBILT	65	KENTUCKY	92		157	-17.5	161.5		Parlay ML	Too Close

[Neek762]

Don't always have to go fully Kelly anyways - can just use it as a gauge and go half or quarter Kelly. I don't want to deal with all of that so I just stick to a 1-5% spread lol

[jamesrav]

The only game that I would bet is the Cleveland State... ML.... it will pay about 5% and has a 1% chance of losing by my metrics. The only time that a Parlay ML line has lost under my recent metrics are when it was a rivalry game. I don't think this is rivalry game.

I know 5% doesn't seem worth the return... but better than Wall Street. Kelly's formula need to be slightly adjusted... 20% obviously not applicable to gambling... since anything can happen... in addition... I don't always know the probability that a bet will win. I have past data but really only about 4K games.

I will post the version that includes both bets and let you conclude.

Dave

20% is quite high, but a coin with a 60% chance of coming up heads (and you as the bettor get to take heads) would in theory be optimally bet at 20%. I know most bettors use fractional Kelly, meaning more cautious and lower amounts. For sports betting, one must take into account the vig, since in the coin flip example at 53%, it's still quite profitable to bet, whereas a model at 53% success is break-even. Overcoming that fear of losing six 10% bankroll bets in a row is very hard. It all comes down to what the true win percentage will be in the long run.

[usma1992]

The only game that I would bet is the Cleveland State... ML.... it will pay about 5% and has a 1% chance of losing by my metrics. The only time that a Parlay ML line has lost under my recent metrics are when it was a rivalry game. I don't think this is rivalry game.

I know 5% doesn't seem worth the return... but better than Wall Street. Kelly's formula need to be slightly adjusted... 20% obviously not applicable to gambling... since anything can happen... in addition... I don't always know the probability that a bet will win. I have past data but really only about 4K games.

I will post the version that includes both bets and let you conclude.

Dave

[jamesrav]

Easy win last night. My buddy wants me to loosen it up to pick more games... I am torn... it is winning consistently so I don't want to mess with it, but maybe there are more opportunities out there. In addition, I am trying to fix NBA... it seems like that season is a tale of two seasons. Before All-Star break and after All-Star break... has anyone experienced this before. Defensively, teams start to show up the second have of the season. Is that true? Anyone have an opinion on either topic?

Dave

why doesn't he just bet more ? he should make sure he's at the max bet size for the situation. Interesting simple article on Kelly at this link, a 60% win chance (your current %) would result in a bet of 20% of bankroll. A 53% chance = 6%. Not sure I'd go to 20% based on a small sample size, but you get the idea.

It all comes down to confidence in the predictions of the model. I saw an interview with the Head of Risk at Circa and he admitted his lines sometimes are just a "number that comes into my head". So beating the Vegas opening line might not be as tough as I thought. But beating the closing line is a different story.

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/data-science/kelly-criterion/

[RM Logic]

So you normally would not play any of these games. None are filtered. The lines are definately tighter and much less room to produce winning plays.
Are there ones that seem stronger to you?
I like the under Louisville- VTech a little more than the other plays but its not a strong play that I would play for alot.

[usma1992]

Decided against my better judgement... I loosened up the model. However, you can still distinguish between types of bets. So if you only want to bet the ones that are more certain than you can do that. L stands for Looser Version... T stands for Tighter. F stands for Filtered... I might just change it to a star rating.

Anyway.. tonight would have been boring but it is producing bets with the loser version.

Good Luck
Dave

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	LIBERTY	76	MIDDLE TENN ST	63		140	5.5	136.0		Away Minus U L	Too Close
7:00 PM	OHIO U	85	BUFFALO	65		151	10.5	150.5		Away Minus U L	Too Close
7:00 PM	VIRGINIA TECH	81	LOUISVILLE	68		149	7.5	152.0		Too Close	Under U L
7:00 PM	IUPUI	60	CLEVELAND ST	86		146	-16.5	145.0		Parlay ML	Too Close
9:00 PM	DAYTON	81	SAINT LOUIS	69		149	9	152.5		Too Close	Under U L
9:00 PM	AUBURN	82	MISSOURI	63		145	12	149.5		Too Close	Under U L
9:00 PM	KANSAS ST	65	KANSAS	75		139	-11	143.0		Too Close	Under U L
9:00 PM	GEORGIA TECH	66	WAKE FOREST	81		147	-13.5	151.0		Too Close	Under U L

[usma1992]

Easy win last night. My buddy wants me to loosen it up to pick more games... I am torn... it is winning consistently so I don't want to mess with it, but maybe there are more opportunities out there. In addition, I am trying to fix NBA... it seems like that season is a tale of two seasons. Before All-Star break and after All-Star break... has anyone experienced this before. Defensively, teams start to show up the second have of the season. Is that true? Anyone have an opinion on either topic?

Dave

[usma1992]

Under 155.5 ... 62 total at halftime.

Dave

[usma1992]

Tonights bets

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:00 PM	NEW ORLEANS	62	TEXAS A&M CC	81		143	-14	155.5		Too Close	Under U

[Neek762]

I wonder how often you'll have picks now since the slates will be so small from
now on ... 60% is good, ROI% is arguably more important % ... maybe something worth keeping track of next season for transparency + seeing how your modeling hold up over a larger sample size

[usma1992]

5-2 Last Night... not counting the ML win..

78-51

Over 60%... no college bets today.

Dave
THE TEACH

[acehole]

thanks man

[usma1992]

Today's Picks... NBA definitely tighter than it has been ... worth a look ... one bet today...

Dave
THE TEACH

2:00 PM	TOWSON ST	70	UNC-WILMINGTON	75		145	-3.5	131.5		Too Close	Over U
6:00 PM	IUPUI	61	CLEVELAND ST	87		147	-17	147.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
6:00 PM	VIRGINIA	65	DUKE	74		139	-9.00	124.0		Too Close	Over U
7:00 PM	UCLA	62	WASHINGTON ST	73		135	-5.00	127.0		Home Minus F	Too Close
8:00 PM	LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT	82	PORTLAND	71		153	3.50	146.0		Away Minus U	Too Close
4:00 PM	NC CENTRAL	76	COPPIN ST	57		134	8.00	138.0		Away Minus U	Too Close
4:30 PM	TEXAS A&M-COMM	81	HOUSTON CHRISTIAN	72		153	1.50	149.5		Away Minus U	Too Close
4:30 PM	SE LOUISIANA	62	TEXAS A&M CC	76		138	-6.50	136.0		Home Minus F	Too Close