Spent two days upgrading and back testing model... Starting new 10 day trial...

[Neek762]

3-2 ML? Totals? Spread?

[usma1992]

No bets tonight... college or pro...

[usma1992]

I had a pretty good night. Went 3-2... I had one blowout loss... but I had three solid wins and lost the over by 1 point. Missed FT with 20 seconds left. I will post picks in an hour or so.

68-44 60.7%

Dave

[Neek762]

NCAAB is getting hard as hell now. Feb basketball is nuts, March will be more nuts. Dogs are playing better than their numbers show combined with favs underperforming. I'll probably be looking at taking home sides only and staying away from wider spreads, or counter the wide spread by live betting. I'm getting killer CLV and it means nothing this past week

[Neek762]

End of the day, still a loss, but how were you supposed to know if the game was going OT? If a games goes to OT it's obvious the original total and spread will become toast most of the time. It CAN happen, but it would be really hard for a team to cover 8 points as a favorite in extra time. Maybe there's a data base out there showing the probabilities of numbers covered in OT. But same with the Under, yeah the model predicted what should have happened points-wise, except both teams had the same amount of points at the end of reg. Hard to predict that and it was just a bad roll of the rice that the only play you posted went to OT.

[Sund]

“Bad loss” was poor choice of words ! Unfortunately overtime killed what would’ve been a win ! Thanks for your work

[usma1992]

So Neek... are u saying my projections count as a win even though OT messed it up.

Sunday what side r u on? Bad loss... why... just curious.

I keep every type of bet separate.


Dave

[Neek762]

I was on Bama before you released the pick. My other two losses were Illinois and Dayton. All complete failures of a game. Besides that, I went 9-4 on the day. I don't think there is debate on if this projection is a win or a loss, though, since there are different wagers people could have made. I'm not sure how you're tracking W and L for your models - are you keeping everything separate? Sides, Totals, MLs? Would be interesting to see those percentages

[usma1992]

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:00 PM	UTRGV	62	UTAH VALLEY ST	75		137	-13.5	149.0		Too Close	Under U
8:00 PM	SOUTHERN UTAH	68	TX-ARLINGTON	78		146	-9	156.0		Too Close	Under U
8:00 PM	E WASHINGTON	80	N ARIZONA	67		147	7.5	158.0		Too Close	Under U
9:00 PM	SACRAMENTO ST	64	MONTANA	80		144	-13	130.0		Too Close	Over U
10:00 PM	CAL DAVIS	69	CS-NORTHRIDGE	71		140	-1	150.5		Too Close	Under U

[usma1992]

There probably is a debate on last night's games and determining whether it was a win or a loss. When you model games as I do, last night's game counts as a win. I know that ultimately you lost money if you bet this game but they didn't hit the over in regulation.

The bet was the right bet... just unlucky. Just like poker ... if you get all your money in as a 95% favorite and someone sucks out on you... that is just part of gambling that happens.

I will post today's games in a bit.

Dave

[Sund]

It was a bad loss !

[usma1992]

I am a fan of ranked opponents going against each other and the under.

Dave

AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
FLORIDA	77	ALABAMA	86		163	-8	174.0		Too Close	Under U

[Neek762]

Makes sense. There's some bangers today that will most likely be close

[usma1992]

No games tonight... Lost both yesterday by a point each.

Dave

[Neek762]

Yeah I'm playing the spread more often than not. I'm also not tailing these picks exactly, because a lot of the time I'm placing wagers the night before of I see value to be had. There are times where I do have the same games as Dave, so it is nice to see how his numbers compare, but I'm almost always looking at the spread and not the totals. I had 30 wagers in and favorites decided to shit the bed late in games. It continued into Sunday - almost hammered St Johns but decided to keep it a unit. Was feeling good about the wager at the half since they were up huge, and then they had probably the worst second half of any team this whole season. I'm still up for 2024, but Feb is on life support lol

[usma1992]

At this point... I can't do "what ifs". I am one man crew... working two jobs and donating plasma to make ends meet. I am able to work on the model throughout the day... but it is still tough to find time. If it has an F... bet a little more than usual.

Dave
THE TEACH

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:30 PM	MISS VALLEY ST	54	ALABAMA ST	83		137	-16	129.5		Parlay ML and H-	Too Close
9:00 PM	IOWA ST	59	HOUSTON	75		134	-9.5	127.5		Home Minus F	Too Close

[jamesrav]

Maybe he meant just the spread bets, not O/U. If I checked correctly it went 4 - 5 with 3 no bets due to 'too close'. Necessary to bet everything offered, they're all equally valid.

Doing fundamental analysis modelling can be humbling, individual game results have to be shrugged off when its 'wrong' by a lot - the only thing that matters are the long run results. Memphis/SMU total went 185, Vegas predicted 155, you were lower at 147. Does your model determine the probability of 'what if' totals, meaning what it would have thought the probability of a 185 total would be? Weird things happen ; as long as the expected happens enough and you can determine that better than they set the lines, you're doing something pretty unique.

[usma1992]

Any game I lose of course... LOL... Neek you didn't get smoked because of me... somehow... I was profitable.

Dave

[Neek762]

Curious what qualifies as a "BS game" ?

[EasyCover]

Do you do baseball Dave?

[usma1992]

If it is filtered with an F next to it... go with 4.5% of your roll.

Dave
THE TEACH
OOGDA

[usma1992]

I made minor adjustments to Home +... Glad it is producing winners.

Dave
THE TEACH
OOGDA

[usma1992]

Hey... I tweaked to eliminate bs games...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
2:00 PM	BELMONT	72	IL-CHICAGO	74		147	3	153.5		Home Plus U	Too Close
4:00 PM	MEMPHIS	68	SMU	79		147	-4.5	155.0		Home Minus F	Too Close

[EasyCover]

7-5 today. Great job again. No one wins every day but you have been really good.
Keep up the great work.

Absolutely. Great job usma1992.

[Neek762]

Today was tough. Got absolutely smoked - bunch of favorites didn't do what they were supposed to

[RM Logic]

7-5 today. Great job again. No one wins every day but you have been really good.
Keep up the great work.

[usma1992]

Sweet

[usma1992]

Here is today's mess of games.... btw...this thread is now the most recently followed. I appreciate those that have taken the time to view.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
1:00 PM	IUPU-FT WAYNE	87	DETROIT	63		150	9	148.0		Away Minus U	Too Close
1:00 PM	TEXAS	60	HOUSTON	78		137	-10	131.0		Home Minus U	Too Close
2:00 PM	AKRON	85	BUFFALO	62		148	13.5	140.5		Away Minus U	Too Close
2:00 PM	BYU	83	OKLAHOMA ST	67		149	6	152.0		Away Minus U	Too Close
2:15 PM	WISCONSIN	76	IOWA	79		155	1	152.5		Home Plus F	Too Close
6:00 PM	BAYLOR	82	W VIRGINIA	67		148	7.00	147.0		Away Minus U	Too Close
6:00 PM	KENTUCKY	73	AUBURN	81		154	-8.00	164.5		Too Close	Under U
6:00 PM	GA SOUTHERN	62	JAMES MADISON	90		152	-19.50	151.5		Parlay ML and H-	Too Close
8:00 PM	LONG BEACH ST	73	CS-NORTHRIDGE	75		148	1.00	162.5		Too Close	Under U
1:00 PM	ALBANY	82	MD-BALT COUNTY	79		161	-1.00	175.0		Too Close	Under U
4:00 PM	BETHUNE-COOKMAN	77	ALCORN ST	71		147	-3.00	148.0		Away Plus U	Too Close
4:00 PM	NC CENTRAL	73	HOWARD	70		142	-4.00	142.0		Away Plus U	Too Close

[usma1992]

Today's games.... weird day...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
1:00 PM	IUPU-FT WAYNE	87	DETROIT	63		150	9	148.0		Away Minus U	Too Close
1:00 PM	TEXAS	60	HOUSTON	78		137	-10	131.0		Home Minus U	Too Close
2:00 PM	AKRON	85	BUFFALO	62		148	13.5	140.5		Away Minus U	Too Close
2:00 PM	BYU	83	OKLAHOMA ST	67		149	6	152.0		Away Minus U	Too Close
2:15 PM	WISCONSIN	76	IOWA	79		155	1	152.5		Home Plus F	Too Close
6:00 PM	BAYLOR	82	W VIRGINIA	67		148	7.00	147.0		Away Minus U	Too Close
6:00 PM	KENTUCKY	73	AUBURN	81		154	-8.00	164.5		Too Close	Under U
6:00 PM	GA SOUTHERN	62	JAMES MADISON	90		152	-19.50	151.5		Parlay ML and H-	Too Close
8:00 PM	LONG BEACH ST	73	CS-NORTHRIDGE	75		148	1.00	162.5		Too Close	Under U
1:00 PM	ALBANY	82	MD-BALT COUNTY	79		161	-1.00	175.0		Too Close	Under U
4:00 PM	BETHUNE-COOKMAN	77	ALCORN ST	71		147	-3.00	148.0		Away Plus U	Too Close
4:00 PM	NC CENTRAL	73	HOWARD	70		142	-4.00	142.0		Away Plus U	Too Close

[usma1992]

2-1-1 Last night... I won one by .5 which is crazy because Columbia was killing them the whole time and gave their edge back at home. The Yale game pissed me off... they scored 75 in the first half and really didn't shoot well.

They pushed at 138... Maybe with my computer glitch yesterday... when a few questioned is it over or under... my computer apparently knew is was the exact number. This should have gone over... I doubled this bet. Got a push.

Dave
THE TEACH

[usma1992]

RM Logic...

My Home- filter is 8 points... So, if you look at the Siena numbers plus take into account the spread... it just missed being a bet. I am trying to be an unbiased modeler and programmer. What ever the numbers say... they say... If a game is way off I exam... other than that... I leave it alone. Yesterday's games so you can exam.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
6:00 PM	HARVARD	71	CORNELL	81		151	-8.5	156.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	MOUNT ST MARYS	75	RIDER	73		148	1.5	146.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	SIENA	57	ST PETERS	72		129	-9.5	125.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	VA COMMONWEALTH	76	SAINT LOUIS	66		142	5	143.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	NIAGARA	71	FAIRFIELD	79		150	-6.5	146.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	VILLANOVA	81	GEORGETOWN	68		148	10	139.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	MANHATTAN	68	IONA	82		149	-13	146.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	CANISIUS	65	MARIST	71		136	-5.5	133.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	DARTMOUTH	62	COLUMBIA	81		143	-9.5	135.5		Home Minus U	Too Close
7:00 PM	YALE	81	PENNSYLVANIA	71		152	6.5	138.0		Too Close	Over U
7:00 PM	BROWN	63	PRINCETON	79		142	-13	141.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	OHIO U	79	TOLEDO	79		158	-6	160.0		Away Plus U	Too Close
10:00 PM	NEW MEXICO	73	SAN DIEGO ST	72		145	-6	152.5		Away Plus U	Too Close
7:00 PM	N FLORIDA	79	KENNESAW ST	82		162	-2.5	163.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	JACKSONVILLE	77	QUEENS U - CHAR	78		155	-2.5	151.5		Too Close	Too Close

[RM Logic]

Well, at least my error proved that a few are tracking the picks.

Jamesrav... Yeah my percentages are really solid. I still have a minor filter to prevent close matches. For Away + the points it is 6 points. So the 9 o'clock and 10 o'clock games barely make it, but they do make it. I can always adjust it up another few points but then you start eliminating games again.

I have been looking into Action Network also. My buddy uses it to track action. It isn't cheap... $150 for annual membership. I am not going to do it just yet. He did look into Columbia game and PROLINE has the Columbia spread at 15.5 or 16.5. I am at 19. Regardless, it is a game worth looking into.

Dave

Question on a game I thought you would play tonite- St. Peter's -9.5 over Siena. What did your numbers show on this game. You have played against Siena (who is just terrible) alot lately so I figured you might do it again. And they lost by 22.

[RM Logic]

I got 137.5 on Yale /Penn over. After 1st half didn't think I'd need it.

This game should have went way over but at least it was a push at 138.

[EasyCover]

I got 137.5 on Yale /Penn over. After 1st half didn't think I'd need it.

[usma1992]

Well, at least my error proved that a few are tracking the picks.

Jamesrav... Yeah my percentages are really solid. I still have a minor filter to prevent close matches. For Away + the points it is 6 points. So the 9 o'clock and 10 o'clock games barely make it, but they do make it. I can always adjust it up another few points but then you start eliminating games again.

I have been looking into Action Network also. My buddy uses it to track action. It isn't cheap... $150 for annual membership. I am not going to do it just yet. He did look into Columbia game and PROLINE has the Columbia spread at 15.5 or 16.5. I am at 19. Regardless, it is a game worth looking into.

Dave