NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/24/2012
Play #1
Grizzlies (+6) 1x (Locked)
No time for a full writeup, but i'm jumping on the +6 at the open. If the grizz lost last night and rested their guys a bit more, this would have been a multiple unit play. The grizz are hot and actually have better overall advanced numbers on both sides of the ball. If you look at the numbers, the grizz are currently the better team quantitatively on both offense and defense. Both teams are in a fatigue spot, so that is a wash. I wish memphis lost yesterday ensuring big support for portland, but they remain the play regardless because of the value. I have this game set at +4 giving us a full 2 points of "value" on the side. Based on the foregoing, I am rolking with the Grizz for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Cavaliers/Heat over (202.5) 1x (Locked)
I wish I would have locked this one in at the open of 201, but as I was checking the ref assignments, this one started to go up and sits at 203 as I type this on my phone. Both teams play a fast PACE ranked 3rd and 5th in the league. Offensively, the Heat are second in OEFF and 4th in FT/FGA evidencing an efficient offense with players that can get to the line. Cleveland is middle of the pack in those stats but are improving and boast acceptable EFG% and TS% numbers for this play. Regardless, this play will be won or lost on miamis advantage on offense over the cavs weak defense ranked in the bottom 6 of DEFF and OEFG%. Cleveland does have the advantage on the boards, and especially on the offensive boards with an ORB% that is 7th overall, which should provide for some second chance points. Plus, both teams will be motivated based on history and I expect a very fast pace with both teams rested. The refs are brothers, fehr and smith who all have a historical over lean. I have this game set at 206 but it is important to get at least 203 or better because that number is key in nba totals. I would not take this over 204. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3
Raptors (+6) 1x (Locked)
The old Suns are in a bad fatigue and situational spot to take on a hungry Raptors squad that is hopeful to get its star back and which has comparable stats to the favorite. The Raptors are rested and will be facing the Suns who are home for the first game after a 10 day road trip and after a tough loss to Dallas which is usually a solid NBA fade spot. Add that to the fact that the Suns are on a b2b with an aging squad going against a Raptors team hungry to end their losing streak. I think the qualitative factors clearly favor the Raptors. When you look at the stats, even though the Suns offensive efficiency numbers are better than the Raptors, the majority of those numbers are skewed because Bargnani's production is missing. Even without his presence, the Raptors still have comparable ORB% and DRB% with a better OEFG% and the exact same DEFF%. The books opened this game under the key number of 7 as I don't think they expect a blow out in this game. Good luck.
Play #1
Grizzlies (+6) 1x (Locked)
No time for a full writeup, but i'm jumping on the +6 at the open. If the grizz lost last night and rested their guys a bit more, this would have been a multiple unit play. The grizz are hot and actually have better overall advanced numbers on both sides of the ball. If you look at the numbers, the grizz are currently the better team quantitatively on both offense and defense. Both teams are in a fatigue spot, so that is a wash. I wish memphis lost yesterday ensuring big support for portland, but they remain the play regardless because of the value. I have this game set at +4 giving us a full 2 points of "value" on the side. Based on the foregoing, I am rolking with the Grizz for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Cavaliers/Heat over (202.5) 1x (Locked)
I wish I would have locked this one in at the open of 201, but as I was checking the ref assignments, this one started to go up and sits at 203 as I type this on my phone. Both teams play a fast PACE ranked 3rd and 5th in the league. Offensively, the Heat are second in OEFF and 4th in FT/FGA evidencing an efficient offense with players that can get to the line. Cleveland is middle of the pack in those stats but are improving and boast acceptable EFG% and TS% numbers for this play. Regardless, this play will be won or lost on miamis advantage on offense over the cavs weak defense ranked in the bottom 6 of DEFF and OEFG%. Cleveland does have the advantage on the boards, and especially on the offensive boards with an ORB% that is 7th overall, which should provide for some second chance points. Plus, both teams will be motivated based on history and I expect a very fast pace with both teams rested. The refs are brothers, fehr and smith who all have a historical over lean. I have this game set at 206 but it is important to get at least 203 or better because that number is key in nba totals. I would not take this over 204. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3
Raptors (+6) 1x (Locked)
The old Suns are in a bad fatigue and situational spot to take on a hungry Raptors squad that is hopeful to get its star back and which has comparable stats to the favorite. The Raptors are rested and will be facing the Suns who are home for the first game after a 10 day road trip and after a tough loss to Dallas which is usually a solid NBA fade spot. Add that to the fact that the Suns are on a b2b with an aging squad going against a Raptors team hungry to end their losing streak. I think the qualitative factors clearly favor the Raptors. When you look at the stats, even though the Suns offensive efficiency numbers are better than the Raptors, the majority of those numbers are skewed because Bargnani's production is missing. Even without his presence, the Raptors still have comparable ORB% and DRB% with a better OEFG% and the exact same DEFF%. The books opened this game under the key number of 7 as I don't think they expect a blow out in this game. Good luck.
