LTA's NBA Plays

[mikea33]

What is it LTA?!?!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/28/2012

Play #1

Wizards/Bobcats over (183) 2x (Locked)

This is one you might want to wait to get a better number. I am locking this in now because (1) I am going to be at a family party all day without the ability to monitor the line movement and (2) I am getting an off-market number at 183 with the rest of the market currently at 184 or 184.5. I believe 183 might still be available at Legends, but it might have gone up to 183.5 since I started this writeup. Regardless, I would play this game up to 185, but at that number this is only worth a 1x play. At 183, this is great value for a 2x play and at 182 or less, I would probably make this a 2.5x play. This a play where no one expects these two teams to score because they are both very inefficient on offense and because of Charlotte's injury situation playing without Augustin or Maggette. Currently, depending on where you look, you will find anywhere between 70% and 80% of all wagers on the under showing that the books are getting flooded with under wagers. I think this is a great spot for the books to clean up on the over. Pinny opened this game up at 186, took some early money on the under driving it down to 184 (-110) on the under, before some early Saturday morning money drove it back up to 184.5. I expect this total will fluctuate throughout the day and you should be able to get 183 or better at some point, with a closing number that will probably end up at the 184 or 185 range. Bottom line is that this play is all about a fast pace, no defense and team shooting percentages which are bound to positively regress toward the league average of 44%. As long as we get a PACE around 93 and both teams can shoot at 44% or better, we should cash this play. Three days ago, these two teams played to a final total of 167 with the Wiz winning 92 -75. The PACE was at 93.3 for the game, but Charlotte shot very poorly on the road hitting only 35% of their shots. That game opened at 191 at Pinny, was bet all the way up to 194 and then closed at 192.5. In this game, the oddsmakers made a clear adjustment in favor the under because of that game, coupled with the fact that both teams have played poorly in their next game with Washington only scoring 76 points on the road at Houston and Charlotte only put up 72 on the road at Philly. However, by opening this game more than 6 points lower than just three days ago -- at which time Augustin and Maggette were also out -- I think the oddsmakers are overreacting a bit here. Moreover, getting this particular matchup almost 10 points below the previously set total is too much value on the over to pass up in this game. As I mentioned, I expect a very fast pace tonight. Both teams are playing fast right now with Washington ranked #4 overall and Charlotte #13. However, Charlotte has played some slower paced teams lately and tends to play to the pace of their competition. Consequently, I expect both teams to run and gun tonight. In addition to a fast pace, this play is predicted on a lack of defense. If you look at the advanced stats, you find that these are two of the worst defensive teams in the league. This is true pretty much uniformly across the board in defensive stats. After playing to such a low scoring game in this matchup a few days ago, I think these two teams -- both of which are filled with youngsters -- will care more about putting the rock in the hoop and driving up their stats than digging down deep to play tough D. I just don't think either team will be interested in playing defense tonight. This is especially true if you consider that both teams are in a fatigue spot playing the second of a b2b and 3rd game in 4 nights. With both the Wiz and Cats playing poorly last night on offense shooting 36% and 38% respectively, I expect a positive regression tonight. If you look at the coaches, both Silas and Wittman have been preaching about fast pace and improved offensive efficiency. Because they are both playing such poor defense and are both in a fatigue spot which generally affects defense more than offense, I think we see an unexpected high scoring game tonight. I think both teams will play hard since they don't usually face opponents against whom they have a genuine shot at beating -- they both think they can win tonight and this should be a competitive game. With Charlotte playing at home, I expect a much better offensive performance than we have seen out of them recently. The refs are Callahan, Brothers and Richardson, so not the best crew in the world for an over, especially Callahan. However, both defenses are in the bottom 5 of OFT/FGA telling me that they guys are going to be hacking it up tonight. In the last game, we saw 41 FT attempts with a similar officiating crew. Therefore, I think we can rely on getting 40 or more FT attempts tonight, especially when you consider that Brothers and Richardson are career over leaning guys with career averages of around 42 Fouls/gm. In the last game, my model had the total set at 193. In this game, my model adjusted toward the under just like the oddsmakers. However, my quantitative adjustment was only 3 points and I have this game set at 190. Even if you adjust for travel and fatigue, I don't think this total should be set any lower than 188 and getting this over at 183 is great value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

[dlunc3]

185.5 on all 3 of my books...hoping it gets down to 184

[Love The Action]

Whoa, looks that like total is really moving. If you can't get my number, don't play it for 2x. You should also watch the line movement today as I suspect it will move back down. The market clearly agreed that an almost 10 point adjustment from a few days ago is too much. However, I suspect we will see some more under money driving this one back down. Wait until you can get this one at the 183-185 range (186 is getting a touch more risky).

[Love The Action]

185.5 on all 3 of my books...hoping it gets down to 184

If you also like the over, then keep an eye on the movement. I think this one will fluctuate a lot today. As I said above, 185 is not a bad number. However, it's only a 1x play at that number. If you can get 183 or 184, then you are back in the 2x territory. Just keep an eye on the movement and you should be able to get 185 or better.

[Redscot]

Whoa, looks that like total is really moving. If you can't get my number, don't play it for 2x. You should also watch the line movement today as I suspect it will move back down. The market clearly agreed that an almost 10 point adjustment from a few days ago is too much. However, I suspect we will see some more under money driving this one back down. Wait until you can get this one at the 183-185 range (186 is getting a touch more risky).

When I checked my lines I thought you got this game mixed up with another one or something. Looks like it is coming back down to earth. GL bro, and have a great time today.

[dynasty27]

It's hard to rely on those two teams to score, but I agree in two bad teams going at each other and getting off tonight

[eliorg]

what you think about the rockets ? NYK without carmelo.

[Love The Action]

It's hard to rely on those two teams to score, but I agree in two bad teams going at each other and getting off tonight

Sometimes, the harder it is to press "confirm," the easier the winners come.....

Believe me, I hate betting on crap teams to do anything other than play like crap. However, in this game, I think the "crap" evidences itself on defense. These guys need to pad their scoring stats at some point and they know they are not going to do it against the better teams, so when two bad teams like this play each other, you tend to see a lot of fast-paced high scoring basketball. It's Saturday night and it's time to put on a show. I think we see this one hit the low 190's.....

[mikea33]

That is a true statement my friend.......i find that the games i have the hardest time playing hit, and the squarest, "easiest" plays rarely are easy

[Love The Action]

Why is Utah -9 on a 2nd of a b2b against a well-rested Kings team. Well, one of the reasons is that Jefferson is back and Thornton is out for Sac-town. Really like Utah here and the books look to be begging for Kings money.

[NotJoshRay]

Why is Utah -9 on a 2nd of a b2b against a well-rested Kings team. Well, one of the reasons is that Jefferson is back and Thornton is out for Sac-town. Really like Utah here and the books look to be begging for Kings money.

I agree. I'd also take a look at the under too. Without Thornton they are a pretty unexplosive looking offense and it has shown over the last few games.

LTA, In this situation betting on the over in a game between two awful teams, do you ever factor quality of teams in a situation like this? I try to stay away from point totals or spreads between two awful teams. Charlotte has looked pretty pathetic the last two games scoring wise. Rather than go against you, I'm just gonna stay away. Good luck.

[mikea33]

Game is at charlotte.....I really like this play LTA....Wiz play crap defense on the road.....if you put 2 horendous teams together you probably get lazy defense more than you do poorous offense, these guys are still pros and can obviously score.......

[mikea33]

Why is Utah -9 on a 2nd of a b2b against a well-rested Kings team. Well, one of the reasons is that Jefferson is back and Thornton is out for Sac-town. Really like Utah here and the books look to be begging for Kings money.

\

This one is also a tough one to 'confirm' but i already put it in for a unit, i like this spot for the Jazz

[Love The Action]

I'm out for the day. I have a few more leans that I will be checking up on and will try to post from my phone. Good luck tonight guys

[Donnie Brasco]

I'm out for the day. I have a few more leans that I will be checking up on and will try to post from my phone. Good luck tonight guys

Good luck to you as well! How bout my hornets last night! Cant figure orlando out.

[mikea33]

Good luck to you as well! How bout my hornets last night! Cant figure orlando out.

Ill help you figure them out.......Orlando=trash

[Overbettor]

Game is at charlotte.....I really like this play LTA....Wiz play crap defense on the road.....if you put 2 horendous teams together you probably get lazy defense more than you do poorous offense, these guys are still pros and can obviously score.......

Thats the exact thing I was thinking. On it for 200. Good luck guys

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/28/2012

Play #1

Wizards/Bobcats over (183) 2x (Locked)

This is one you might want to wait to get a better number. I am locking this in now because (1) I am going to be at a family party all day without the ability to monitor the line movement and (2) I am getting an off-market number at 183 with the rest of the market currently at 184 or 184.5. I believe 183 might still be available at Legends, but it might have gone up to 183.5 since I started this writeup. Regardless, I would play this game up to 185, but at that number this is only worth a 1x play. At 183, this is great value for a 2x play and at 182 or less, I would probably make this a 2.5x play. This a play where no one expects these two teams to score because they are both very inefficient on offense and because of Charlotte's injury situation playing without Augustin or Maggette. Currently, depending on where you look, you will find anywhere between 70% and 80% of all wagers on the under showing that the books are getting flooded with under wagers. I think this is a great spot for the books to clean up on the over. Pinny opened this game up at 186, took some early money on the under driving it down to 184 (-110) on the under, before some early Saturday morning money drove it back up to 184.5. I expect this total will fluctuate throughout the day and you should be able to get 183 or better at some point, with a closing number that will probably end up at the 184 or 185 range. Bottom line is that this play is all about a fast pace, no defense and team shooting percentages which are bound to positively regress toward the league average of 44%. As long as we get a PACE around 93 and both teams can shoot at 44% or better, we should cash this play. Three days ago, these two teams played to a final total of 167 with the Wiz winning 92 -75. The PACE was at 93.3 for the game, but Charlotte shot very poorly on the road hitting only 35% of their shots. That game opened at 191 at Pinny, was bet all the way up to 194 and then closed at 192.5. In this game, the oddsmakers made a clear adjustment in favor the under because of that game, coupled with the fact that both teams have played poorly in their next game with Washington only scoring 76 points on the road at Houston and Charlotte only put up 72 on the road at Philly. However, by opening this game more than 6 points lower than just three days ago -- at which time Augustin and Maggette were also out -- I think the oddsmakers are overreacting a bit here. Moreover, getting this particular matchup almost 10 points below the previously set total is too much value on the over to pass up in this game. As I mentioned, I expect a very fast pace tonight. Both teams are playing fast right now with Washington ranked #4 overall and Charlotte #13. However, Charlotte has played some slower paced teams lately and tends to play to the pace of their competition. Consequently, I expect both teams to run and gun tonight. In addition to a fast pace, this play is predicted on a lack of defense. If you look at the advanced stats, you find that these are two of the worst defensive teams in the league. This is true pretty much uniformly across the board in defensive stats. After playing to such a low scoring game in this matchup a few days ago, I think these two teams -- both of which are filled with youngsters -- will care more about putting the rock in the hoop and driving up their stats than digging down deep to play tough D. I just don't think either team will be interested in playing defense tonight. This is especially true if you consider that both teams are in a fatigue spot playing the second of a b2b and 3rd game in 4 nights. With both the Wiz and Cats playing poorly last night on offense shooting 36% and 38% respectively, I expect a positive regression tonight. If you look at the coaches, both Silas and Wittman have been preaching about fast pace and improved offensive efficiency. Because they are both playing such poor defense and are both in a fatigue spot which generally affects defense more than offense, I think we see an unexpected high scoring game tonight. I think both teams will play hard since they don't usually face opponents against whom they have a genuine shot at beating -- they both think they can win tonight and this should be a competitive game. With Charlotte playing at home, I expect a much better offensive performance than we have seen out of them recently. The refs are Callahan, Brothers and Richardson, so not the best crew in the world for an over, especially Callahan. However, both defenses are in the bottom 5 of OFT/FGA telling me that they guys are going to be hacking it up tonight. In the last game, we saw 41 FT attempts with a similar officiating crew. Therefore, I think we can rely on getting 40 or more FT attempts tonight, especially when you consider that Brothers and Richardson are career over leaning guys with career averages of around 42 Fouls/gm. In the last game, my model had the total set at 193. In this game, my model adjusted toward the under just like the oddsmakers. However, my quantitative adjustment was only 3 points and I have this game set at 190. Even if you adjust for travel and fatigue, I don't think this total should be set any lower than 188 and getting this over at 183 is great value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Jazz (-9) 1x (Locked)

I might add 0.50x or 1x to this play as I really like the jazz tonight. Quantitatively, the jazz have a strong edge on both sides of the ball. Moreover, everything the jazz do well offensively, the kings do poorly on defense. The jazz are top 5 in points in the paint and fastbreak efficiency, while the kings are bottom 5 defensively. Even though the jazz are on a b2b and 3 in 4, they had 3 days off before that stretch. Therefore, both teams are playing their third game since 1/23. In addition, the jaxx should be hungry coming off 2 losses, especially that beating by the, mavs last night. I have the jazz set at -11 and I am rolling with utah for 1x now and maybe more later. Good luck.

[mikea33]

already locked em in.........i might wait for some line movement as it SHOULD move in Kings favor, althogh i think books might hook in some action on kings

[YouHave2outs]

i need to be educated. jazz opened at -9.5, i see over 2/3 of the action on jazz. line is now -9. how is that begging for kings action? i am obviously assuming i am wrong and you are right. just need to understand to help my future wagers. have a great day LTA, and thanks for posting as always.

[PolishSensation]

Wizards/Bobcats opened at 188 on my book. Within an hour it dropped to 185, and now available at 184. Just like LTA said, the line would drop. I have this game pegged at 189. I locked in at 184. BOL guys.

[mikea33]

i need to be educated. jazz opened at -9.5, i see over 2/3 of the action on jazz. line is now -9. how is that begging for kings action? i am obviously assuming i am wrong and you are right. just need to understand to help my future wagers. have a great day LTA, and thanks for posting as always.

Nope, you are right Sir...........i said that it SHOULD move in jazz's favor, as I (and i believe LTA thought the line was inflated as well from his prior comments) I thought that there would be more action on a well rested Kings team vs a b2b jazz team.......however i was wrong and line movement has me a tad worried....half a point isnt bad though so money must be somewhat even, hate to be on public side but Kings are rested however that doesnt heal defense and they have been horirble.....Jazz have Jefferson back tonight and I belive they win by 20. I know nothing however

[Love The Action]

i need to be educated. jazz opened at -9.5, i see over 2/3 of the action on jazz. line is now -9. how is that begging for kings action? i am obviously assuming i am wrong and you are right. just need to understand to help my future wagers. have a great day LTA, and thanks for posting as always.

Opened at 9 at pinny....not sure where you are seeing 9.5.

The point being that utah is in a classic fatigue spot against a well rested sac team and yet they still open at 9 instead of the 8 I suspected. The last game between these teams (albeit at the end of last season with thornton in the lineup) had the kings set at -6.5. Adjusting for home court, this game would be a pk. Even taking thornton's absence into consideration and adjusting for an improved utah team, a 15 point adjustment by the books is blatantly significant and I think the books are tipping their hand a bit here. In addition, the kings are forced to start the jimmer because of the devastating loss of thornton. Jimmer is really, realky bad according to the advanced numbers . If you look at his PER rating you will see a guy that gets KILLED on defense. His sole positive is shooting and the jazz will give him that shot all day while they dominate the paint and raja bell eats him up all day long offensively.

You are getting WAY too wrapped up in line movement. A few days ago I faded sactown against denver in cali and people were worried about the lack of line movement in that one.....we all know what happened with denver winning by 29 shorthanded without affalo and lawson.

With that said, anyone can win or cover on a given night. However, with utah coming off 2 losses, I expect them to be sharp and motivated to roll to a big win.

Anyway, i'm posting from the car and can't give you my full thoughts, but I would recommend to stop worrying so much about the line movement and look more to basketball factors. The jimmer will really hurt the kings on defense and they have NO answer for the inside game of utah. I expect the jazz to get a ton of easy baskets. Good luck in whatever you choose buddy

[YouHave2outs]

^^ my local opened at 9.5 and adjusted to 9 pretty quickly, guess that makes it even more suspicious

[Love The Action]

^^ my local opened at 9.5 and adjusted to 9 pretty quickly, guess that makes it even more suspicious

Dude...your local's lines do not set the market. Pinny sets the market. The efficiency of the pinny market is what matters and your local was simply getting his numbers in line with pinny. I would put no stock in any line adjustment made by your local. If you are going to base plays on line moves, I would recommend against looking at your local's moves and start following pinny moves. Your local's lines are not efficient. Pinny numbers control. Regardless, however, I would recommend putting more stock in the quantitative factors than trying to read line moves as that will not be a long term winning proposition.

That's just my opinion though....you should do what works for you. GL

[YouHave2outs]

what i meant was that i assumed pinny opened at 9.5 because my local did, and that was my mistake.

[mikea33]

Line movement although they sometimes give hints of this and that and who the books want and who the traps are.....reading lines will be unsuccesful....sure people make plays and hit them due to RLM and it seems easy, but in this spot i really like both LTAs play tonight besides both being plays a novice would make. If u read the whole thread there is atleast 20 line movement questions and all have the same relative answer from LTA

[mikea33]

Wouldn't make and might be tough to get urself to bet*

Left out a sentence haha

[No coincidences]

Dude...your local's lines do not set the market. Pinny sets the market. The efficiency of the pinny market is what matters and your local was simply getting his numbers in line with pinny. I would put no stock in any line adjustment made by your local. If you are going to base plays on line moves, I would recommend against looking at your local's moves and start following pinny moves. Your local's lines are not efficient. Pinny numbers control. Regardless, however, I would recommend putting more stock in the quantitative factors than trying to read line moves as that will not be a long term winning proposition.

That's just my opinion though....you should do what works for you. GL

He might have been going off the lines posted mid-day Friday, which had Sacramento at +10. Bookmaker also opened at +9.5.

[Speedy88]

you want to talk about line movement, go look at the Detroit/Phili game. Now there's some RLM for you.

[No coincidences]

you want to talk about line movement, go look at the Detroit/Phili game. Now there's some RLM for you.

Have a feeling it's just head fakes by the books to get line watchers to bite on Detroit, but we'll see.

[Speedy88]

Have a feeling it's just head fakes by the books to get line watchers to bite on Detroit, but we'll see.

I'm not a pro or anything, but how often does vegas do this? Where they supposedly try to "fake out" the sharps?

[dlunc3]

Opened at 9 at pinny....not sure where you are seeing 9.5.

The point being that utah is in a classic fatigue spot against a well rested sac team and yet they still open at 9 instead of the 8 I suspected. The last game between these teams (albeit at the end of last season with thornton in the lineup) had the kings set at -6.5. Adjusting for home court, this game would be a pk. Even taking thornton's absence into consideration and adjusting for an improved utah team, a 15 point adjustment by the books is blatantly significant and I think the books are tipping their hand a bit here. In addition, the kings are forced to start the jimmer because of the devastating loss of thornton. Jimmer is really, realky bad according to the advanced numbers . If you look at his PER rating you will see a guy that gets KILLED on defense. His sole positive is shooting and the jazz will give him that shot all day while they dominate the paint and raja bell eats him up all day long offensively.

You are getting WAY too wrapped up in line movement. A few days ago I faded sactown against denver in cali and people were worried about the lack of line movement in that one.....we all know what happened with denver winning by 29 shorthanded without affalo and lawson.

With that said, anyone can win or cover on a given night. However, with utah coming off 2 losses, I expect them to be sharp and motivated to roll to a big win.

Anyway, i'm posting from the car and can't give you my full thoughts, but I would recommend to stop worrying so much about the line movement and look more to basketball factors. The jimmer will really hurt the kings on defense and they have NO answer for the inside game of utah. I expect the jazz to get a ton of easy baskets. Good luck in whatever you choose buddy

I apologize for this being completely off topic... but you are amazing at typing from your phone

[inn_keeper]

I apologize for this being completely off topic... but you are amazing at typing from your phone

This.