LTA's NBA Plays

[suicidekings]

Play #2 Nuggets (-6) 1x (Locked) Writeup to come. Denver has a huge advantage in both offensive and defensive efficiency, is rested and is facing a kings team in a bad situational spot and without arguably its best player (thornton is out). I have denver set at -8 giving us a full fg in value and i'm rolling with the nuggz for 1x. Good luck.

This game caught my eye as well, but I'm curious why Denver is only -6 here... Denver has them outclassed in many ways, just like you say, by a pretty solid margin. The line hasn't budged off of -6 despite 85/15 action on the Nuggets on both the spread and ML. Confusing...

I feel like Denver might struggle tonight. Afflalo and Fernandez have been confirmed out for tonight.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/25/2012

Play #1

Hawks/Spurs over (187.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups today. We have two efficient offenses against a weak spurs defense and a good hawks defense, but one that is susceptible to the strength of the spurs offense. This play has great over refs with fraher, zarba and tiven which should help out considering both defenses are adept at avoiding fouls. I have this game set at 192 giving us over 4 points of value and the total has started to jump despite 70% on the under. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nuggets (-6) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Denver has a huge advantage in both offensive and defensive efficiency, is rested and is facing a kings team in a bad situational spot and without arguably its best player (thornton is out). I have denver set at -8 giving us a full fg in value and i'm rolling with the nuggz for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Jazz (-10) 1x (Locked)

On the road. Writeup to come. Bad spot for the raptors on fatigue in the altitude. I have utah set at -11, but this is a situational play as much as anything. I am rolling with utah for 1x. Good luck.

[SoxSide Irish]

That lack of line movement is very concerning...

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/25/2012

Play #1

Hawks/Spurs over (187.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups today. We have two efficient offenses against a weak spurs defense and a good hawks defense, but one that is susceptible to the strength of the spurs offense. This play has great over refs with fraher, zarba and tiven which should help out considering both defenses are adept at avoiding fouls. I have this game set at 192 giving us over 4 points of value and the total has started to jump despite 70% on the under. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nuggets (-6) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Denver has a huge advantage in both offensive and defensive efficiency, is rested and is facing a kings team in a bad situational spot and without arguably its best player (thornton is out). I have denver set at -8 giving us a full fg in value and i'm rolling with the nuggz for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Jazz (-10) 1x (Locked)

On the road. Writeup to come. Bad spot for the raptors on fatigue in the altitude. I have utah set at -11, but this is a situational play as much as anything. I am rolling with utah for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Timberwolves/Dallas under (184) 1x (Locked)

Been trying to get a better number, but this one has started to steam so I'm locking this one up at 184. That number may still be available at Legends, but the line is starting to move. Although I'm worried about the PACE that Minny plays at being they are ranked in the top 10 of the league, I expect their offensive flow to be slower today based on some of their injuries. In addition, Minny is playing great defense this year and so is Dallas, with both ranked in the top 12 of DEFF and even better in OEFG%. The strength of both teams' defenses matches up well with the strength of these offenses. The refs are Lindsay, Wall and Stafford, with both Lindsay and Wall having career under leans and Stafford being somewhat neutral with a small over lean. Even though these teams played to the under earlier in the season in a game which had an average PACE of 93.5, I expect today's game to be played a little slower and defense to be the focal point with both teams fairly rested. This number is a huge adjustment from last season where the totals were set in the 200's which tells me the books expect a lower scoring game. I have this game set at 181.5 and I like this game to stay under the posted total. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[hawley]

Jefferson out for the Jazz in case it matters to you LTA

[Love The Action]

Jefferson out for the Jazz in case it matters to you LTA

Yeah, it does. That sucks. He's arguably their best player their best player this year. I didn't see much about that during the day other than them saying he "tweaked" his angle during Wednesday's shoot-around. That's going to mean a lot more time for Demarcus Cousins. I'm not one to buy out of plays for a number of reasons, so I will probably just sit tight. We'll see. Thanks for the update.

[Andrewsurf]

Jesus DAL and MIN are off to a hot start This one already feels dead.

[alamo]

Jesus DAL and MIN are off to a hot start This one already feels dead.

Nothing like the power of positive thinking ^^

[Andrewsurf]

Nothing like the power of positive thinking ^^

I'm just going for the reverse jinx. Everything that can go wrong has so far tonight, time for things to swing the other way.

[alamo]

I'm just going for the reverse jinx. Everything that can go wrong has so far tonight, time for things to swing the other way.

Ok no worries.

[Andrewsurf]

Ok no worries.

Pace slowed down slightly, just need some 40 pt quarters.

[dlunc3]

utah was up 18.... i turned around for 2 minutes and now its down to 5? wtf happened

[Donkeys2012]

Refs in San Antonio must have forgotten their whistles tonight.

[Love The Action]

utah was up 18.... i turned around for 2 minutes and now its down to 5? wtf happened

Refs in San Antonio must have forgotten their whistles tonight.

Can't believe what's happening. Between Utah blowing that lead, Minny and Dallas both shooting over 50% and the refs calling only 6 fouls through three quarters in the Spurs/Hawks game, I have to call it a night and go to bed. Very frustrating to say the least. Need to hit the hay and recharge the old batteries.

Hopefully we get some luck

[Donkeys2012]

Yea i Cant believe this SA game no fouls at all and atlanta cant hit a shot to save their life.

[Donkeys2012]

Having a terrible day. POS bulls game just went under by 2 after needing on 39 in 4th quarter. I think im done with the NBA for awhile these POS thugs just done give a shit this year.

[Dmil]

Winner LTA
Hawks over

[dlunc3]

congrats on the win guys... i got it at 189

couldnt score 1 pt in the last 35 seconds...

[alamo]

congrats on the win guys... i got it at 189

Makes two of us. That hurt.

[SoxSide Irish]

As did I

[YouHave2outs]

nice break lta. solid win!

[Donkeys2012]

Unreal I got it at 189 also and it was set for a push and then they adjusted the score WTF. Lost the bulls over on the same thing took a 3 off the board.

[dlunc3]

Unreal I got it at 189 also and it was set for a push and then they adjusted the score WTF. Lost the bulls over on the same thing took a 3 off the board.

coulda been a big win, or even push

lets go den and utah

[NextGeneration]

Hawks/Spurs 188. I tail u for the over. That was so close. Thx buddy

[dizzydtw]

Didn't like the line at 189, so I rolled the dice and bought it all the way down to 188. Not necessarily a good thing long term, but it worked out for me this time...

#715 - Atlanta Hawks/San Antonio Spurs o188 (-130) -$0

[dizzydtw]

Did anybody take Utah 2H? the line was UT -6.5. Wish I did now...rats

[PolishSensation]

I got it at 189. Just my luck...

[alamo]

Jazz up 9 with 8min to play. Lets hope the altitude kicks in and the Raps starting gasping for air

[dlunc3]

Jazz up 9 with 8min to play. Lets hope the altitude kicks in and the Raps starting gasping for air

lead down to 1 just 3 minutes later

[alamo]

lead down to 1 just 3 minutes later

Yup. Its the Jazz who seemed to be struggling. Gonna need a big run here to close this out to try and get the cover.

[CheeseHead]

I think a lot of us got the Hawks game total at 189. Unreal that LTA got 187.5 and most of us got 189 and it lands right on 188. How ridiculous

[Redscot]

congrats on the win guys... i got it at 189

couldnt score 1 pt in the last 35 seconds...

Yeah, that was painful dude. I am always fearful locking in when I don't get the best number, case in point.

Anyway, season is young and LTA's model should be honing in on these totals. Keep up the grind LTA , I appreciate how much time and effort you put into this .

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/25/2012 Recap

2 - 2 = -0.2x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

48 - 41 = +5.35x

Cant believe that spurs game did not go over 189 for the guys who had that number. And wtf with the jazz, up 9 with 8 minutes left and they end up losing. The minny under never had a chance but denver rolled. Regardless, I am really angry with the nba right now and will go on a relentless run. I don't know when, but it will come. I am more determined than ever.

[pacocn]

Lta, keep it going man, you are
still up and a run is imminent.

[mr_yohan]

I've watched the Jazz for years, and if it's one thing I've learned is that you can NEVER trust them against a shitty team or covering large spreads. And I'm not talking about this years team, this goes back to Boozer and Williams. God, why do I even waste my time with them? smh