LTA's NBA Plays

[riffraff24]

Love The Action, you posted this in the 2nd-to-last line in your Heat OVER pick: I have this game set at 206 but it is important to get at least 203 or better because that number is key in nba totals. How is that Key in nba totals?!

A lot can happen in garbage time including late 3 point plays. It's good to have that 1 possession cushion if you can get it. I think LTA is referring to that?

Edit: nevermind im an idiot. hes on the over lol.

[pokerwhiz90]

anyways - orlando +3 is good value here: 4-0-1 ATS for anything less than -4.5 this season. They are 3-0 on the road for less than -4.5.

[dlunc3]

hey man, definitely on board with you... but just a writeup i found interesting on the other side:

I am going to be playing the Portland Trail Blazers today at home against the Memphis Grizzlies. I am playing this game based on situation and matchup. Memphis is in a very bad situation in this game. Memphis has won 7 games in a row and downright stole a road win yesterday @ GS in a game they trailed by 20 points. Memphis does not need a win in the least bit tonight. This is a game the Grizzlies will be okay with losing. Memphis is playign their 4th game in 5 days with 3 games on the road. They have won 3 straight on the road so again this is not a team saying, "we have to get this one on the road tonight". Portland does need this win. They are coming off a very unsuccessful 2-4 road trip with it's only 2 wins against Toronto and Houston. Portland knows the only way they can afford to lose those road games is if they keep on dominating at home. So Portland has to get this home win tonight against Memphis. Porltand is also playing their 4th in 5 but they will not be as fatigued because #1, they played lowly Sacramento and the game wasn't a hard fought win. They won by double digits and were up 18 going into the 4Q. #2,They did not have to travel as last nights game was in Portland. So they got a good nights rest at home. Memphis played on the road and had to give every ounce of energy to pull off last nights win.

Portland does matchup very well with the Grizzlies. The catalyst for all of the Grizzlies wins lately has been Rudy Gay. Portland has two defenders who can cover him and cover him well in my mind with Gerald Wallace and Nicolas Batum. So I don't see Gay having an outstanding game which they will definitely need from him to remain competitive on the road against a great home Porltand team. Portland has the biggest matchup advantage on the court with Lamarcus Aldridge. I think he will have a monster game as Marrese Speights is severaly overmatched. Even if they put Gasol on Aldridge, I still think Lamarcus is too quick for him. Lamarcus only played 28 minutes last night so he should be really fresh tonight. Gerald Wallace always plays well at home averaging 20ppg and shooting 65%. Matthews is another guy who averages 4ppg more at home and shoots 10% better at home. Jamal Crawford is highly confident coming off his best game of the year last night. He should have a big game. Craig Smith off the bench has been good for the Blazers lately scoring 10 points in each of the last two games, they really needed some depth at the F spot and he's added that little lately. Nicolas Batum is another solid bench piece for the Blazers who can easily score 10-15 on any given night. Felton has been a bad player for the Blazers so far this year but he's been a littler better as of late scoring 11, 20 and 14 after very mediocre 9 and 2 point nights.

I just really think you are going to see a very sluggish Memphis team, especially in the 2nd half. I think Portland will open up with a small lead at half and at some point break out big in the 2nd half. I just think Memphis is too drained. Also, none of Memphis wins have impressed me that much. They beat some of the worst teams in the league right now New York, Chicago (no Rose), Memphis, New Orleans twice, Detroit, Sacramento and GS. The only win that impresses me a little is the win @ GS and they really shouldn't have won trailing by 20. I think Portland will just be too much for them. Memphis best trait is their ability to cause turnovers but Portland does not turn the ball over at all and even less at home. With that in mind, I don't see Memphis getting easy buckets in transition off turnovers. I don't see any mismatches Memphis presents on offense so I find it hard to see them having a good offensive night playing their 4th in 5. Memphis only averages 85ppg on the road compared to Portland who averages 104 at home. I see Portland winning this game by around 8 or 9 points.


With that said, lets go Grizzlies

[basenock]

Phoenix under and Orlando Over is better play

[Love The Action]

LTA curious to how much you adjust for b2b teams on the defensive side. For example, I initially liked the UNDER for the POR MEM game as both teams are middle of the road in OffEff and True Shooting numbers, but top ten in DefEff. Looking deeper and the other side of it, both teams are top ten in PACE and could play lax on the defensive side while both being b2b. Let me know what you think, thanks.

Generally, its very difficult to expect max defensive effort when both teams are in a bad fatigue spot. With that said, however, you need to know how each team generally responds to such spots. Tgere is no definite answer as it all depends on numerous factors. GL

[Sport_Fish]

hey man, definitely on board with you... but just a writeup i found interesting on the other side:

I am going to be playing the Portland Trail Blazers today at home against the Memphis Grizzlies. I am playing this game based on situation and matchup. Memphis is in a very bad situation in this game. Memphis has won 7 games in a row and downright stole a road win yesterday @ GS in a game they trailed by 20 points. Memphis does not need a win in the least bit tonight. This is a game the Grizzlies will be okay with losing. Memphis is playign their 4th game in 5 days with 3 games on the road. They have won 3 straight on the road so again this is not a team saying, "we have to get this one on the road tonight". Portland does need this win. They are coming off a very unsuccessful 2-4 road trip with it's only 2 wins against Toronto and Houston. Portland knows the only way they can afford to lose those road games is if they keep on dominating at home. So Portland has to get this home win tonight against Memphis. Porltand is also playing their 4th in 5 but they will not be as fatigued because #1, they played lowly Sacramento and the game wasn't a hard fought win. They won by double digits and were up 18 going into the 4Q. #2,They did not have to travel as last nights game was in Portland. So they got a good nights rest at home. Memphis played on the road and had to give every ounce of energy to pull off last nights win.

Portland does matchup very well with the Grizzlies. The catalyst for all of the Grizzlies wins lately has been Rudy Gay. Portland has two defenders who can cover him and cover him well in my mind with Gerald Wallace and Nicolas Batum. So I don't see Gay having an outstanding game which they will definitely need from him to remain competitive on the road against a great home Porltand team. Portland has the biggest matchup advantage on the court with Lamarcus Aldridge. I think he will have a monster game as Marrese Speights is severaly overmatched. Even if they put Gasol on Aldridge, I still think Lamarcus is too quick for him. Lamarcus only played 28 minutes last night so he should be really fresh tonight. Gerald Wallace always plays well at home averaging 20ppg and shooting 65%. Matthews is another guy who averages 4ppg more at home and shoots 10% better at home. Jamal Crawford is highly confident coming off his best game of the year last night. He should have a big game. Craig Smith off the bench has been good for the Blazers lately scoring 10 points in each of the last two games, they really needed some depth at the F spot and he's added that little lately. Nicolas Batum is another solid bench piece for the Blazers who can easily score 10-15 on any given night. Felton has been a bad player for the Blazers so far this year but he's been a littler better as of late scoring 11, 20 and 14 after very mediocre 9 and 2 point nights.

I just really think you are going to see a very sluggish Memphis team, especially in the 2nd half. I think Portland will open up with a small lead at half and at some point break out big in the 2nd half. I just think Memphis is too drained. Also, none of Memphis wins have impressed me that much. They beat some of the worst teams in the league right now New York, Chicago (no Rose), Memphis, New Orleans twice, Detroit, Sacramento and GS. The only win that impresses me a little is the win @ GS and they really shouldn't have won trailing by 20. I think Portland will just be too much for them. Memphis best trait is their ability to cause turnovers but Portland does not turn the ball over at all and even less at home. With that in mind, I don't see Memphis getting easy buckets in transition off turnovers. I don't see any mismatches Memphis presents on offense so I find it hard to see them having a good offensive night playing their 4th in 5. Memphis only averages 85ppg on the road compared to Portland who averages 104 at home. I see Portland winning this game by around 8 or 9 points.


With that said, lets go Grizzlies

Sounds like a SweetJones55 Write up

[Love The Action]

Love The Action, you posted this in the 2nd-to-last line in your Heat OVER pick:

I have this game set at 206 but it is important to get at least 203 or better because that number is key in nba totals.

How is that Key in nba totals?!

While not as important, there are certain totals numbers which have historically hit 1.5% of the time or more. 203 hits at about 2% of the time and is the 4th most common final number. Therefore, I try not to take an over at 204 or 205 unless I think it should go way over 203. This rule can be broken, but I try to follow the long term percentages. For some perspective, we all know 41 is the most important key total number in the nfl because it hits at about 4.29%. In the nba, 189 is the most important because it hits at 2.05%. Not as significant as nfl key numbers, but statistically significant nonetheless.

[Love The Action]

hey man, definitely on board with you... but just a writeup i found interesting on the other side:

I am going to be playing the Portland Trail Blazers today at home against the Memphis Grizzlies. I am playing this game based on situation and matchup. Memphis is in a very bad situation in this game. Memphis has won 7 games in a row and downright stole a road win yesterday @ GS in a game they trailed by 20 points. Memphis does not need a win in the least bit tonight. This is a game the Grizzlies will be okay with losing. Memphis is playign their 4th game in 5 days with 3 games on the road. They have won 3 straight on the road so again this is not a team saying, "we have to get this one on the road tonight". Portland does need this win. They are coming off a very unsuccessful 2-4 road trip with it's only 2 wins against Toronto and Houston. Portland knows the only way they can afford to lose those road games is if they keep on dominating at home. So Portland has to get this home win tonight against Memphis. Porltand is also playing their 4th in 5 but they will not be as fatigued because #1, they played lowly Sacramento and the game wasn't a hard fought win. They won by double digits and were up 18 going into the 4Q. #2,They did not have to travel as last nights game was in Portland. So they got a good nights rest at home. Memphis played on the road and had to give every ounce of energy to pull off last nights win.

Portland does matchup very well with the Grizzlies. The catalyst for all of the Grizzlies wins lately has been Rudy Gay. Portland has two defenders who can cover him and cover him well in my mind with Gerald Wallace and Nicolas Batum. So I don't see Gay having an outstanding game which they will definitely need from him to remain competitive on the road against a great home Porltand team. Portland has the biggest matchup advantage on the court with Lamarcus Aldridge. I think he will have a monster game as Marrese Speights is severaly overmatched. Even if they put Gasol on Aldridge, I still think Lamarcus is too quick for him. Lamarcus only played 28 minutes last night so he should be really fresh tonight. Gerald Wallace always plays well at home averaging 20ppg and shooting 65%. Matthews is another guy who averages 4ppg more at home and shoots 10% better at home. Jamal Crawford is highly confident coming off his best game of the year last night. He should have a big game. Craig Smith off the bench has been good for the Blazers lately scoring 10 points in each of the last two games, they really needed some depth at the F spot and he's added that little lately. Nicolas Batum is another solid bench piece for the Blazers who can easily score 10-15 on any given night. Felton has been a bad player for the Blazers so far this year but he's been a littler better as of late scoring 11, 20 and 14 after very mediocre 9 and 2 point nights.

I just really think you are going to see a very sluggish Memphis team, especially in the 2nd half. I think Portland will open up with a small lead at half and at some point break out big in the 2nd half. I just think Memphis is too drained. Also, none of Memphis wins have impressed me that much. They beat some of the worst teams in the league right now New York, Chicago (no Rose), Memphis, New Orleans twice, Detroit, Sacramento and GS. The only win that impresses me a little is the win @ GS and they really shouldn't have won trailing by 20. I think Portland will just be too much for them. Memphis best trait is their ability to cause turnovers but Portland does not turn the ball over at all and even less at home. With that in mind, I don't see Memphis getting easy buckets in transition off turnovers. I don't see any mismatches Memphis presents on offense so I find it hard to see them having a good offensive night playing their 4th in 5. Memphis only averages 85ppg on the road compared to Portland who averages 104 at home. I see Portland winning this game by around 8 or 9 points.


With that said, lets go Grizzlies

I agree in part and disagree in part. Memphis is just as motivated to win this game as portland and to suggest otherwise is not only silly, but irresponsible. If you have watched memphis' intensity, you would know this. I will offer my full response to these comments after I get home from work, time permitting.

[Love The Action]

If anyone gets confirmation on bargnani, please post it with a link. Thanks

[BigBoi]

Bargnani is probable according to DonBest.

[Love The Action]

Bargnani is probable according to DonBest.

Hes a gametime decision now though....

[absolutkaos]

Bargs is a game-time decision, once he works out with trainers pre-game they will decide....https://twitter.com/#!/Raptors

[BigBoi]

Hes a gametime decision now though....

Yeah I see that according to rotowire.

[SoxSide Irish]

Hey LTA did you read sweetjones forum last year at all? Cant remember if u posted in there or not but was curious what you thought of him.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA did you read sweetjones forum last year at all? Cant remember if u posted in there or not but was curious what you thought of him.

I give all the credit in the world to anyone that publicly posts their plays with a transparent record that is updated daily. You can't argue with SJ's sbr record, although, I dont know how he's been doing since deciding to sell his plays.

[Redscot]

I give all the credit in the world to anyone that publicly posts their plays with a transparent record that is updated daily. You can't argue with SJ's sbr record, although, I dont know how he's been doing since deciding to sell his plays.

This is a strong point.

The majority of us have our opinions and our "good days" that we spout off at the drop of the hat.....putting your record out there day after day in public domain with NO compensation is almost akin to a glutton for punishment! I think in your case LTA you do it as somewhat of a checks and balances for your wagering, maybe a sprinkle of altruism and perhaps a tad of validation......end of the day...I give major props to you and all others who put themselves out there. I personally am not confident enough in my capping abilities to do so.

As always appreciate your plays, and more so the reasoning behind them, because that is educative.

P.S. Nolan Ryan was down here checking out another Cuban defector Geraldo Concepcion, pitcher, but one of my contacts said that the White Sox were heavily involved....I think that is your team.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/24/2012

Play #1

Grizzlies (+6) 1x (Locked)

No time for a full writeup, but i'm jumping on the +6 at the open. If the grizz lost last night and rested their guys a bit more, this would have been a multiple unit play. The grizz are hot and actually have better overall advanced numbers on both sides of the ball. If you look at the numbers, the grizz are currently the better team quantitatively on both offense and defense. Both teams are in a fatigue spot, so that is a wash. I wish memphis lost yesterday ensuring big support for portland, but they remain the play regardless because of the value. I have this game set at +4 giving us a full 2 points of "value" on the side. Based on the foregoing, I am rolking with the Grizz for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cavaliers/Heat over (202.5) 1x (Locked)

I wish I would have locked this one in at the open of 201, but as I was checking the ref assignments, this one started to go up and sits at 203 as I type this on my phone. Both teams play a fast PACE ranked 3rd and 5th in the league. Offensively, the Heat are second in OEFF and 4th in FT/FGA evidencing an efficient offense with players that can get to the line. Cleveland is middle of the pack in those stats but are improving and boast acceptable EFG% and TS% numbers for this play. Regardless, this play will be won or lost on miamis advantage on offense over the cavs weak defense ranked in the bottom 6 of DEFF and OEFG%. Cleveland does have the advantage on the boards, and especially on the offensive boards with an ORB% that is 7th overall, which should provide for some second chance points. Plus, both teams will be motivated based on history and I expect a very fast pace with both teams rested. The refs are brothers, fehr and smith who all have a historical over lean. I have this game set at 206 but it is important to get at least 203 or better because that number is key in nba totals. I would not take this over 204. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Raptors (+6) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. This play is predicted on Bargnani playing. I might buy out if he does not play, but wanted to ensure the +6 so I'm locking up the raptors now for 1x. Good luck.

[BigBoi]

Card complete?

[kl06ty]

Never ever buy the raptors....

edit: you may as well donate that money for a good cause, its as good as gone XD

[Donnie Brasco]

Never ever buy the raptors....

edit: you may as well donate that money for a good cause, its as good as gone XD

Thx and goodluck

[Dexter]

Andrea Bargnani (calf) is not listed among the Raptors starters in Toronto's pre-game notes.
This doesn't mean Bargnani is officially out, as he still plans on working out with the Raptors training staff before the game. After working out, head coach Dwane Casey will then make the decision on if Bargs will return. We will be sure to pass along official word as soon as we hear. Jan 24 - 6:19 PM
Source: Davide Chinellato on Twitter

[jas19illini]

Cleveland and Miami know they're allowed to score right? Maybe someone should remind them just in case....

[alamo]

Im shocked at pace of play in Miami. Both teams walking it up the floor then shooting with 2-4secs left on shot clock. The shooting % is not helping much either

[Redscot]

Cleveland and Miami know they're allowed to score right? Maybe someone should remind them just in case....

This is back to the days of the peach baskets. Didn't see this coming....never know maybe they wake the F'k up.

[Andrewsurf]

Source: Davide Chinellato on Twitter
#Raptors coach Casey on Andrea Bargnani status: "He will likely play tonight". Raps are trying to end an 8-game slide @ #Suns

[alamo]

With 4mins gone 2nd Qtr both teams are combined 21/42 on FG and are 4/9 from downtown. Normally If i saw this i would be thinking this looks solid. Problem is these fcks are deciding for some strange reason to kill the play clock on every possession

[jas19illini]

This is back to the days of the peach baskets. Didn't see this coming....never know maybe they wake the F'k up.

We might need double OT lol.

[Redscot]

With 4mins gone 2nd Qtr both teams are combined 21/42 on FG and are 4/9 from downtown. Normally If i saw this i would be thinking this looks solid. Problem is these fcks are deciding for some strange reason to kill the play clock on every possesion

Agreed .

[suicidekings]

Cleveland and Miami know they're allowed to score right? Maybe someone should remind them just in case....

People don't realize how good the Cavs have been defensively this year against the fastbreak. They get back fast, making it hard for teams that like to run to get into rhythm. The slow Heat start could offer a solid Heat 2H option if the Cavs can take a lead into the half.

[Andrewsurf]

https://twitter.com/dchinellato#Raptors just made it official: Andrea Bargnani is back in the starting lineup. He missed 6 games w a strained left calf #NBA
3 minutes ago

[Trivial]

76 points at half time? I know crap about basketball, but from the little I do know, I do know that 65 points each remaining quarter is doable if these boys want to score.

[Love The Action]

People don't realize how good the Cavs have been defensively this year against the fastbreak. They get back fast, making it hard for teams that like to run to get into rhythm. The slow Heat start could offer a solid Heat 2H option if the Cavs can take a lead into the half.

That's true. Cleveland top 10 in Opponent Fastbreak Efficiency and Opponent Fastbreak Points Per Game.

With that said, I don't think anyone expected a halftime score where both teams are under 40 points. This one opened and immediately shot up to 202, then to 203 and all the way to 204 and closed at 203.5 at Pinny with the over juiced at -110. As you know, that's like -120 at any other shop. All that over movement occurred despite most bets on the under. Most of the "big" money was on the over in this one.

[Andrewsurf]

76 points at half time? I know crap about basketball, but from the little I do know, I do know that 65 points each remaining quarter is doable if these boys want to score.

With a 200+ total, this one is pretty much dead. Without OT, 130 in the second half is extremely rare. Lets see if we can't pull a reverse bad beat.

[mikea33]

That's true. Cleveland top 10 in Opponent Fastbreak Efficiency and Opponent Fastbreak Points Per Game.

With that said, I don't think anyone expected a halftime score where both teams are under 40 points. This one opened and immediately shot up to 202, then to 203 and all the way to 204 and closed at 203.5 at Pinny with the over juiced at -110. As you know, that's like -120 at any other shop. All that over movement occurred despite most bets on the under. Most of the "big" money was on the over in this one.

LTA, 2 things for ya here..............i didnt get the over in, but i will be taking memphis and raptors...although im not too confident, it seems whenever i let your picks by they always hit.................now my question...............

Why don't you dip your feet in 2H plays? You seem to have a knack for reading pace and stuff like that, 2H plays have soft lines sometimes......

[Trivial]

With a 200+ total, this one is pretty much dead. Without OT, 130 in the second half is extremely rare. Lets see if we can't pull a reverse bad beat.

Lets hope for OT then.