LTA's NBA Plays

[jas19illini]

That's true. Utah does always seem to play to their competitions level.

[BigBoi]

I got the over for the second half at 93 1/2. Total for first half was 92 and basing of ltas play they needed 96. Easy $$$$

[alamo]

Small card - You planning anything tonight LTA

[Love The Action]

Small card - You planning anything tonight LTA

Contemplating a play in the late game. Lean to the celts with an inflated line and the over in the early game, but no play for me in that one.

[jas19illini]

Contemplating a play in the late game. Lean to the celts with an inflated line and the over in the early game, but no play for me in that one.

I agree on both accounts. I also like LAC and the under.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/26/2012

Play #1

Grizzlies (+4) 1x (Locked)

You can get this number at Legends, Blowdog, Cris and Heritage to name a few. Pinny, 5D and the Greek are rolling with 3.5, with Pinny and 5D juicing Memphis despite 70% on Clippers. I think this presents a great spot to fade the majority. Memphis has very similar power ratings, an offense that is not quite as good as the Clippers but with a defense that is much better. Even though we are missing ZBO in this game and Memphis will really miss him down low going against Jordan, Griffing, etc. However, Memphis is top 10 in both points in the paint and defending against points in the paint, evidencing a pretty big advantage down low despite Randolph's injury. The Clippers will be at full strength with CP3 back on the court, but he only played 26 minutes so Del Negro is easing him back into full time play. Regardless, I like the defensive abilities of Conley and Allen to give CP3, Williams and Billlups all they can handle defensively. I also like the Gay/Butler matchup in favor of Gay. Gasol and Jordan should be a good matchup, but Memphis has been most successful when running the offense through Gasol and that is what I expect tonight. If you look at OEFF, EFG%, TOV%, ORB%, TS%, DEFF, OEFG%, OTOV% and OTS%, you will see that Memphis' advantage on the defensive side far outweighs its comparable to slightly worse offensive stats when compared to the Clippers. With the quantitative analysis clearly favoring Memphis, we then turn our attention to qualitative factors. Looking that this game we see that Memphis is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in 7 nights. However, the Clip joint is on the 2nd night of a b2b, having played the Lakers in a tough game last night with its starters all playing over 32 minutes except for CP3. Even though the Clippers were basically playing a home game last night, Memphis has been in LA for a couple days and I don't expect fatigue to be an issue for the Grizz. Both teams are coming off a loss, so both should be equally motivated to win this one. The Clippers are on the road against Denver in their next game while Memphis travels to Phoenix. Consequently, I don't think either team is in a particularly bad situational spot. However, where I think Memphis has a real advantage is coaching. Bottom line is that I view Lionel Hollins as one of the best coaches in the league and I view Memphis as the Western Conference Bulls because of the emphasis that they put on defense and toughness. The Memphis players love playing for Hollins and I have read numerous stories about the players crediting Hollins for their turnaround after losing ZBO. Del Negro on the other hand is not good with in-game strategy and does not command the attention and/or respect of his players like Hollins. I think in game adjustments will be important tonight, especially with CP3 back and I give the coaching edge to Memphis. The refs are Crawford, Barnkay and Palmer and none of them have a home team or away team historical lean. However, Memphis' superior ratings in FT/FGA on both offense and defense tells me that they might just get a few more calls tonight, especially when you consider the majority of Memphis' offense is scored on 2pt aggressive plays in the paint and a great deal of the Clipper offense is predicated on outside shooting. I have this game set at +2, because at this current line the books are putting Memphis at -2 at home and they would be at least -3 or -4 based on the stats. With quantitative edge to Memphis, equal qualitative factors and an advantage in coaching, I am going to roll with the Grizzlies for 1x. Good luck.

[mikea33]

Very interesting play LTA. ....lets cash it

[BigBoi]

play at 3 1/2?

[Andrewsurf]

edit: RUDY, RUDY, RUDY!!!

[Donkeys2012]

Clippers usually get off to quick starts and fade. If you had been betting first half overs and 2nd half unders for clippers home games this year you would have a small fortune already.

[Cruizer]

Thanks for your perspective LTA

[Love The Action]

http://basketballvalue.com/glossary.php

Not sure if I ever posted this resource yet or not. It's a good one to use determine strengths and weaknesses between individual matchups. I've linked you to the glossary page to review how to apply the numbers.

Here's another solid one as well. http://www.82games.com/1112/1112BOS.HTM

I couldn't remember if I've shared those or not, so there ya go.

[IXL]

Thank u LTA, everytime i'm in this thread, i always learn something new, be it from your insight and analysis of the game. I appreciate the knowledge that you share.

[YouHave2outs]

in on the rooting here. let's get this +4

edit. 2 wide open memphis jumpers missed and a pump fake rhythm made by clipps and we foul them. i should stop psoting

[Love The Action]

Win or lose, I just love the relentlessness of the Grizzlies on both sides of the ball, but especially on D. They play great individual and team defense and they bring the effort night in and night out. When ZBO comes back, I think some WC teams need to start watching their backs.

[Love The Action]

Mo Williams needs to go away. Killing us right now.

[Love The Action]

Refs definitely dishing out some home calls....but that is to be expected.

[Pauulzcappin]

Refs definitely dishing out some home calls....but that is to be expected.

Unfukking real. Clipps getting ALL the calls. We might be done here.

[Pauulzcappin]

No goaltending call

[Andrewsurf]

No goaltending call

RIDICULOUS

[No coincidences]

NBA refs are a fvcking disgrace.

[Love The Action]

Refs definitely dishing out some home calls....but that is to be expected.

How did they not call goal tending on Jordan.

[Andrewsurf]

Garbage

[Andrewsurf]

****

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/26/2012 Recap

0 - 1 = -1.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

48 - 42 = +4.25x


Very hard fought loss by the grizz.....but it was too much to overcome both the clips and the refs at the same time. Such is life as a nba road team and we move onto friday. Just gotta keep grinding and putting in the work. Its time for variance to be on our side for once. Good luck.

[kobstopa]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/26/2012 Recap

0 - 1 = -1.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

48 - 42 = +4.25x


Very hard fought loss by the grizz.....but it was too much to overcome both the clips and the refs at the same time. Such is life as a nba road team and we move onto friday. Just gotta keep grinding and putting in the work. Its time for variance to be on our side for once. Good luck.

i see you too got kill by the grizz; agree with your reflection about the refs and all, but there were two uncharacteristic errors made on the grizz's part which iam still scratching my head, these in no doubt would had it close to about 3-4 points margin;
1. silly turnovers via deflection
2. they rushes through 3's jump-shooting in the dying minutes, designed to swing pressure on the clip but got backfire (Mike Conley/O.J. Mayo = 3/11 3's), could have keep it from mid range to attack the post.

[jas19illini]

Does anyone know an approximation of how many points home court advantage is worth in the NBA?

[pacocn]

Does anyone know an approximation of how many points home court advantage is worth in the NBA?

I would expect there are numerous factors that go into this aproximation. Location, teams playing, refs, night of week, etc.

[Donnie Brasco]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/26/2012 Recap

0 - 1 = -1.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

48 - [B]42 = +4.25x
[/
Very hard fought loss by the grizz.....but it was too much to overcome both the clips and the refs at the same time. Such is life as a nba road team and we move onto friday. Just gotta keep grinding and putting in the work. Its time for variance to be on our side for once. Good luck.

was on magic last night, imagine my surprise

[Pluthero]

I would expect there are numerous factors that go into this aproximation. Location, teams playing, refs, night of week, etc.

This is true, but on average most prediction systems use between 3 and 4 points.

[Dmil]

Melo out tonight

[alamo]

Anyone got any thoughts on Spurs @ T'Wolves Total (195.5) ?

These two played back on Jan 2nd and played 3 very high scoring qtrs before someone decided to put a lid on the hoop in the fourth (28pt 4th). I like the over here. What you finking on this LTA ?

http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=320102016

[TC Woods]

I'm wondering if all the bullshit that generally occurs in a forum like this has caused LTA to keep his picks to himself..

hmmmmm????

[Donnie Brasco]

Hes posting still

[Love The Action]

I'm wondering if all the bullshit that generally occurs in a forum like this has caused LTA to keep his picks to himself..

hmmmmm????

That shyte dont affect me....just busy with work. I have a few plays I am eyeing....will post when I can