-
Comment -
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/27/2012
Play #1
Pacers (-3) 1x (Locked)
This one is moving so cant wait any longer. The revenge angle does not concern me as bostons best players were used up yesterday in the big magic win and I dont forsee a letdown by the pacers who have the advantage in rest and most quantitative factors as well. Not a ton of value as I have indy set at -4, but this is a bad spot for the celts. I am rolling with the pacers for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Nice to see you are on Indiana tonight LTA,
I was thinking of taking this game myself. Now it feels even better.
Also with you on yesterdays pick on Memphis. That was just bad luck.
Good luck tonight!
Comment -
Line at -4 in all my books they are juicing -4 -115 damn! have to passComment -
Hey LTA, I have just registred here but I have been following yours and other threads for awhile now.
I'm also on this, -3.5, and I was wondering if you feel like I do. I Just think its no fluke or coincidence that Indy gave Boston their second biggest lost of the season so far. They matchup really well because they can destroy the old celtics inside and after last night I think Hibbert and West might be in for some really good games. On the perimeter they have big guards and forwards who can both shoot and attack and that kind of hability seems to disconfort teams like the Cs who basically work on rotations and team defense, without any really good 1x1 defenders (maybe Bradley seems an exception). I think this gives a great match up advantage to the Pacers.
Btw, this is all coming from someone who went with the C's on the spread and the ML last night, my better bet ever in what's my first season in betting (plus last year playoffs).
Good luck!Comment -
Boston has Rondo, Ray Allen and Jermaine O'Neal out ...Comment -
Play #2
Nets/Cavs over (191) 1x (Locked)
What an ugly matchup to jump on the over, right? Well perhaps, but then why is vegas opening this one at 192 after their prervious game stayed well under the posted total of 187.5. An almost 5 point increase? Hmmmm....well I have this game set at 194 even with brooks out for the nets. The cavs are playing very fast and I expect the nets to play the cavs pace tonight. Both offenses have improved and both defenses are weak, plus the strength of each offense will face the weakness of each defense. The refs are zarba, bavatta and cutler all favoring the over. We are getting solid value with my model at 194 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
love Pacers LTA, and you are about to hit a large win streak. i have to tail this playComment -
Also took Pacers -3. I see this old Celtics team having a big letdown game after tough win on the road.Comment -
Good luck mate. On play 3 myself and play 2 off to a good startComment -
This 2nd quarter in the Nets game is terribleComment -
53 shot attempts in the Bulls\Bucks 1qtr. Holy fck since when these two decide to run n gun
Comment -
Comment -
Cash that over in Cleveland - 31pts in the last 3m30s ! We were owed one of those
Comment -
damn right!! Wait to go Cavs!!Comment -
The NBA is a joke.
Look at how the ATL/DET, NJ/CLE and IND/BOS totals conveniently went over.
Congrats LTA!
Comment -
That was a beautiful last 3 minutes in the nets game. Makes up for those BS 12 minutes in the second Q.Comment -
Play #4
Thunder/Warriors over (199) 1x (Locked)
It's generally "square" city to play the over in the late Friday night game, but in this case I think the individual and team matchups lend itself well to the over. GS has been playing fast of late and these two teams both rank 12th and 13th in PACE. However, just like in the NJ/Clev over, the teams offensive strength face up against their defensive weaknesses. Both teams defense tend to foul often with two of the higher OFT/FGA rate and OKC's offense is one of the best at drawing fouls currently #1 in FT/FGA. The refs are Rush, Mott and Blair. Mott's a long time over guy and Mott was the best under guy last season but has been calling a lot of fouls this season. Blair is relatively and has been average in amount of fouls per game. I have this game set at 203 giving us 2 fg's of variance between my numbers and the books', so I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
good recovery for a "push" evening, less juice...Comment -
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/27/2012 Recap
2 - 2 = -0.2x
NBA 2011-2012 Season
50 - 44 = +4.05x
Friday is over, time to start thinking about tomorrow. Possible big play on Saturday.
Comment -
Wow this is incredible, I don't always manage to tail all your pick, due to living in a different timezone, but recently I went 1-9 with them. I couldn't catch the nets over yesterday, and went to sleep before the thunder over was posted - and same story every night. This is seriously hurting my bankroll, and just feel so unlucky :/ Hoping for a good run (fingers crossed)Comment -
Hey balu sorry to hear - a lot of times i cant get Lt's plays - so what i usually do is, if some of his picks are winning, ill fade the other pick and if his initial picks are losing, ill bet bigger on his latter plays - lt's been near .500 for the last couple weeks, so this has been pretty good for meComment -
oh of course, i don't expect to do this everyday - especially when he starts going on a run.. which should be anytime soonComment -
That sucks about your losses, but to be honest I don't understand the point of your post. Don't you think I want to win all my plays? That's my family's money on the line and my investments are vitally important to me. Even though I am treading water right now, I am still consistently making +EV plays that are ahead of the market and beating the closing line. That's all I can control and as long as I continue to make +EV plays, a run of winners is imminent. Unfortunately, I have no control over which plays cash and which don't. Consequently, you might want to stop tailing and start making your own plays.
When tailing someone, you need to get all their plays or you can suffer more variance. Sometimes that means more wins and sometimes that means more losses. Either way, those the are consequences that you need to both understand and accept if you decide to blindly tail and don't get all the plays.
Regardless, I'm not a tout and I never asked you or anyone else to tail. I've always recommended that people should make their own plays as use my plays/writeups/threads as a reference. My threads are about learning and helping each other so everyone can make their own plays with confidence and we can have intelligent discourse about our investments. If you want to blindly tail someone, you should make sure you get all their plays. Otherwise, try to learn something and make your own.
Good luck on your future endeavors
Comment -
To each their own, I wish everyone winnings, but I think you are playing with fire here Whiz, and would not recommend this practice personally. I have followed LTA in multiple sports and can say without a doubt that he makes +ev plays and beats the closing number at a very high percentage. Fading his plays would really be a crap shoot and swimming up stream. I think it would lead to more losing plays than winning. GL.
Comment
