LTA's NBA Plays

**JT OZ** · 07-11-11, 11:36 PM

GL to you, anything in mind for tomorrow yet? At first glance I wanted to take the under in the Storm game and over in SA but those have turned out to be the popular plays thus far so I don't know what I'm going to do yet. A Seattle-SA ML parlay seems like a solid choice but may not return enough to play it.

**csmkr18** · 07-12-11, 01:39 AM

GL with your new thread !

**aussieH** · 07-12-11, 03:48 AM

So MLB will be in the MLB forum, NFL, NFL forum etc?

**Love The Action** · 07-12-11, 06:49 AM

Originally posted by aussieH

So MLB will be in the MLB forum, NFL, NFL forum etc?

Yes.... The mlb thread is up in mlb forum called LTA's MLB Plays. All of my baseball plays will be posted there and all nba and mlb will be in here moving forward. These will be my final threads for all baseball and basketball plays. Good luck!

**Love The Action** · 07-12-11, 07:05 AM

Originally posted by JT OZ

GL to you, anything in mind for tomorrow yet? At first glance I wanted to take the under in the Storm game and over in SA but those have turned out to be the popular plays thus far so I don't know what I'm going to do yet. A Seattle-SA ML parlay seems like a solid choice but may not return enough to play it.

Not sure yet...I purposefully stayed away from capping yesterday...I will have my wnba plays, if any, posted in the next five hours. Good luck today!

**nickos86** · 07-12-11, 10:21 AM

Good luck with the femme fatales. I have been killing it picking ATS but my totals record is looking shocking!

**Love The Action** · 07-12-11, 11:36 AM

WNBA 7/12/11

Mystics/Storm under (145) 1.25x (locked)

These teams are a combined 0-5 o/u in day games. Despite playing a weak team in washington, I don't see seattle shooting over 50% in b2b games. With the mystics on the road, I think their offensive production will be limited in this day game. I have this game capped at 141, so we have some value on the under at 145. The total opened at 146.5 at pinny and was immediately bought down to the 143 range until going back up in the last hour. I think early money has it right and I'm rolling with the under. I lean seattle on the side. Good luck!

**GemSportsPicks** · 07-12-11, 11:41 AM

I too started on Under but after seeing storm drop 99 last game, against a much better defensive team... I got scared off... Storm could easily put an 80 spot on the board thats what scares me.

**ManBearPig** · 07-12-11, 12:07 PM

I was bored and have been doing some number crunching and of course I'm on the opposite of you here, at least number wise. Although I wouldn't play this one because it's too close. I am only in early stages of generating data so I have a lot to tighten up and analyze and improve on, but it's a much more simplified version of my NBA model and I'm still trying to see what I want and don't want. If anyone knows where prior years WNBA data is available at besides the actual site I'd like to know if there are any XLS/CSV files floating around. GL today

**alamo** · 07-12-11, 12:19 PM

My book was going 151.5 so I had to take this and go low on it. Good luck in the thread LTA. I will be tailing on most plays.

**Love The Action** · 07-12-11, 12:46 PM

Don't underestimate the body clock difference of playing in the day. Seattle is a veteran..ie old...team that might have some difficulty warming up in this one. In the last matchup between these two teams, seattle shot 48% and in their last game on saturday shot 55%. That tells me seattle is due to regress as a team shooting wise. Good luck whichever way you go...

**ebbearsfb1** · 07-12-11, 12:56 PM

Gotta take into account the difference for mystics also.. cross country early start..

**Love The Action** · 07-12-11, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

WNBA 7/12/11

Play #1

Mystics/Storm under (145) 1.25x (locked)

These teams are a combined 0-5 o/u in day games. Despite playing a weak team in washington, I don't see seattle shooting over 50% in b2b games. With the mystics on the road, I think their offensive production will be limited in this day game. I have this game capped at 141, so we have some value on the under at 145. The total opened at 146.5 at pinny and was immediately bought down to the 143 range until going back up in the last hour. I think early money has it right and I'm rolling with the under. I lean seattle on the side. Good luck!

Play #2

Sparks/Silver Stars over (161) 0.50x (locked)

I got stuck with a bad number here, but my model has this capped at 164 so I will take a shot on the over here. Historically, these two teams are 4-1 in favor of the over in their last five games and 4-0 in SA. LA is trending over because they can't stop anyone without parker. With SA at home, I think their recent scoring troubles dissipate against the sparks struggling defense. The trends point over here and I will ride those trends tonight for a half unit play that I may bump up later. I am also looking at a possible play on the side in this one. Good luck!

**Love The Action** · 07-12-11, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

Gotta take into account the difference for mystics also.. cross country early start..

Precisely...just one angle that I think favors the under here...bol...

**ParlayKing** · 07-12-11, 02:20 PM

What ya think about taking the stars over the sparks tonight LTA? I have a feeling sparks are in for a spanking.

**ebbearsfb1** · 07-12-11, 02:32 PM

Geez storm slow down

**yydouble** · 07-12-11, 02:34 PM

Jellybean cant help the Sparks. They will play hard for him though. Im on the over there. If I had to take a side I would lay the pts.

**starfire** · 07-12-11, 02:35 PM

They running&gunning!

**ebbearsfb1** · 07-12-11, 02:51 PM

Wtf.. unbelievable

**starfire** · 07-12-11, 02:53 PM

Banked 3's, fastbreak layups...
80 points @ the Half

**ParlayKing** · 07-12-11, 03:06 PM

played 2nd half under 75.5 seemed like good value considering the game line was only 145.

**yydouble** · 07-12-11, 03:10 PM

Sea. Going over. Makes me like the Sparks OVER even more.

**Love The Action** · 07-12-11, 04:20 PM

Loser by 5 points...man these women drive me nuts lol...unreal..lets see where the line movement goes with tonights game. I also lean silver stars on the side.

**nmodi** · 07-12-11, 04:20 PM

whats ur play for next WNBA game?

**ManBearPig** · 07-12-11, 04:34 PM

If anyone cares, RAS just released an under play on the game tonight...line has since dropped to 160. I like the over so it's all good.

**alamo** · 07-12-11, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

If anyone cares, RAS just released an under play on the game tonight...line has since dropped to 160. I like the over so it's all good.

That RAS guy is supposed to be on fire at the moment. With the line movement favouring the under any rethink on this LTA ?

**Love The Action** · 07-12-11, 04:43 PM

Total is dropping, so I am not planning to add to the SA over play I'm unless we see a move back up...

**Love The Action** · 07-12-11, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Total is dropping, so I am not planning to add to the SA over play unless we see a move back up...

Now that I know the movement was RAS inspired, rather than market generated, I probably will add and make this a full unit play. Ras is good but cannot win ever play...

**btd** · 07-12-11, 04:49 PM

Thanx for tonite's pick and GL.

s

**ebemiss** · 07-12-11, 04:54 PM

RAS is 22-14 on side/total releases and moves the market. Best in the business without a doubt. Fading him on this play may win, but doing it regularly won't. Good luck on the play.

1st time they played the game should have went under, it went to overtime because of a late 3.

**Love The Action** · 07-12-11, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

If anyone cares, RAS just released an under play on the game tonight...line has since dropped to 160. I like the over so it's all good.

Thanks for the heads up...I was worried when I saw the line drop thinking that the market forced that correction...now I am not as concerned. I respect RAS, but I respect a genuine market correction more. Ras is just blind followers forcing that move. I will make this a full unit play now.

Nice call on the storm over...hope you go 2-0.

**ebemiss** · 07-12-11, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Thanks for the heads up...I was worried when I saw the line drop thinking that the market forced that correction...now I am not as concerned. I respect RAS, but I respect a genuine market correction more. Ras is just blind followers forcing that move. I will make this a full unit play now.

Nice call on the storm over...hope you go 2-0.

RAS is the market! Big Money, smart people. Your logic may work in other sports, but your being naive to think it's just a bunch of blind followers moving these lines.

I play games against them from time to time just like you are in this spot. In fact I went 2-0 against them Saturday. I just hope you realize they are the market and consistently fading their plays is a losing prop.

**Love The Action** · 07-12-11, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by ebemiss

RAS is 22-14 on side/total releases and moves the market. Best in the business without a doubt. Fading him on this play may win, but doing it regularly won't. Good luck on the play.

1st time they played the game should have went under, it went to overtime because of a late 3.

I am not fading RAS and I respect his work. However, I have all the confidence in the world in my own abilities and I am not going to buy out of a play I already locked in because this guy or that guy is on the other side. Win or lose, I have to go with my own models and capping techniques. Moreover, line movement generated by ras is false movement which occurs because of his blind followers and actually creates more value for me. So far this season, I am 1-1 against ras so hopefully we can make it 2-1 tonight. I would not intentionally fade ras just like I would not blindly follow...however, I am not scared of him either. Good luck with whatever you decide to play.

**ebemiss** · 07-12-11, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I am not fading RAS and I respect his work. However, I have all the confidence in the world in my own abilities and I am not going to buy out of a play I already locked in because this guy or that guy is on the other side. Win or lose, I have to go with my own models and capping techniques. Moreover, line movement generated by ras is false movement which occurs because of his blind followers and actually creates more value for me. So far this season, I am 1-1 against ras so hopefully we can make it 2-1 tonight. I would not intentionally fade ras just like I would not blindly follow...however, I am not scared of him either. Good luck with whatever you decide to play.

It's not "false" line movement, your absolutely incorrect, even if your play wins. Maybe the extra .5 point may be. But the first 1 pt to 1.5 points is real money by smart people. I understand everything you said and agree with you about playing your own games, but your "false" line move argument I'm not buying for a second.

They create "false" line movements before the plays are released, look at the line moves/history at any book. A lot of times they move the line after a game is first on the board to set up a better line for their actual play. Knowing full well they have to make sure their potential clients can get a somewhat decent number.