LTA's NBA Plays

[ManBearPig]

I think you nailed it LTA in basically eliminating as much excess noise as possible and trusting your own abilities. I've gotten myself into too much trouble by allowing outside influences swaying me because they are respected or the line was moving too much and talked myself out of winning plays. RAS has to be respected and it does make me wonder why they like the under here, but it's one game and if you win great, if not, there's always next game. If you get too caught up in outside noise and winning every game you will hurt yourself in the long-run.

I didn't expect you to change your play based on this info, but as a capper it's nice to have as much information as possible, including but not limited to what established players/services are playing.

BOL tonight

[Love The Action]

RAS is the market! Big Money, smart people. Your logic may work in other sports, but your being naive to think it's just a bunch of blind followers moving these lines.

I play games against them from time to time just like you are in this spot. In fact I went 2-0 against them Saturday. I just hope you realize they are the market and consistently fading their plays is a losing prop.

Interesting back and forth...thanks for your contribution. However, as I stated above, I am not fading ras...I'm tailing myself . I locked my play on the over and posted the same hours before ras. His plays do not factor into my decision making one way or the other.

I would disagree, however, in your statement that ras "is the market." Such a statement is not only hyperbole, but also wrong. I think you would be surprised by the total handle books take on wnba these days. While nothing compared to other sports, the wnba handle has increased year after year and is not only for ras followers anymore.

Just to be clear, I do not intentionally fade ras just like I don't follow him. If his plays are opposite mine, so be it. I respect ras, but fear no one. Bol...

[ShogunRua]

Good luck on your plays LTA. I remember your NBA playoffs thread was very successful.

BTW, would you mind telling me what/who is this 'RAS' everyone keeps referring to? Thanks.

[Love The Action]

It's not "false" line movement, your absolutely incorrect, even if your play wins. Maybe the extra .5 point may be. But the first 1 pt to 1.5 points is real money by smart people. I understand everything you said and agree with you about playing your own games, but your "false" line move argument I'm not buying for a second.

They create "false" line movements before the plays are released, look at the line moves/history at any book. A lot of times they move the line after a game is first on the board to set up a better line for their actual play. Knowing full well they have to make sure their potential clients can get a somewhat decent number.

Perhaps I did not clarify what I meant by false movement. I use false movement to refer to line moves that occur only because of ras. I am not saying real money is not being wagered. What I am saying is that such money would not be wagered on the under but for ras. Therefore, the movement to the under is solely because of ras and is I deem it "false" because its not a true market correction independent of outside factors. When ras moves lines -which he surely does - I do not put as much stock in such moves as I would an independent line move not tied to an identifiable event such as ras releasing a pick.

Anyway, I would be happy to discuss this issue more later tonight when I get home to my computer, but it is difficult and time consuming to respond continually over my phone like this. Bol...

[ebemiss]

Interesting back and forth...thanks for your contribution. However, as I stated above, I am not fading ras...I'm tailing myself . I locked my play on the over and posted the same hours before ras. His plays do not factor into my decision making one way or the other.

I would disagree, however, in your statement that ras "is the market." Such a statement is not only hyperbole, but also wrong. I think you would be surprised by the total handle books take on wnba these days. While nothing compared to other sports, the wnba handle has increased year after year and is not only for ras followers anymore.

Just to be clear, I do not intentionally fade ras just like I don't follow him. If his plays are opposite mine, so be it. I respect ras, but fear no one. Bol...

I respect you for playing your own plays and having your own model. I do the same and won't follow a play I don't like. Probably stubborn to a fault. I just think you are discounting their effect on this particular market.

These lines are being manipulated throughout the day and you can go back and see which moves were "false". I'm learning this and paying attention to it more than ever. Probably why I even had an opinion on your theory. Good luck on your plays.

[Love The Action]

Play #2

Sparks/Silver Stars over (161) 0.50x (locked)


I got stuck with a bad number here, but my model has this capped at 164 so I will take a shot on the over here. Historically, these two teams are 4-1 in favor of the over in their last five games and 4-0 in SA. LA is trending over because they can't stop anyone without parker. With SA at home, I think their recent scoring troubles dissipate against the sparks struggling defense. The trends point over here and I will ride those trends tonight for a half unit play that I may bump up later. I am also looking at a possible play on the side in this one. Good luck!

Added 0.50x for total of 1x LA/SA over (0.50x over 161 & 0.50x over 159) (locked)

Heading home from work now and will log back in about an hour...lets hope ras has this one wrong...bol

[ebemiss]

Again, I'm not saying for 1 second you are on the wrong side or should follow/fade anyone with this play or any play. My argument is the fact that you are automatically discounting the line movement as "false" because it's by RAS. The line has moved 2 full points since the release, probably the last .5 point to 159 by followers. That's all.

What would you think if the line moved 2 full points an hour after you posted a play? It sure as heck wouldn't be false, it would be real as the books respect your opinion, money and "followers". You just can't discount stuff like that, in the long run you can make money knowing as much info as possible.

The moves, as we've seen, are not always accurate but they are relevant in the process.

[yydouble]

Both teams like to run and have the potential to put up 90. I think RAS likes the under based on the fact that the Sparks are missing 25 points a game without Parker. The thing is, Parker plays great D. Jellybean is a cool guy but why fire a coach mid-season after your best player gets hurt? I dont think the team will respond well, I think they now have another built in excuse to lose. This is a human nature play. If you were in the WNBA would you really get fired up because your GM fires your coach? Do you think those girls want to make their x-coach look bad? What is their motivation to play hard now? the Sparks act like NBA players more than any other team in WNBA, walk to the sidelines, bitch at refs and only play hard when its a big game. I LOVE SA and the over here.

[alamo]

Added 0.50x for total of 1x LA/SA over (0.50x over 161 & 0.50x over 159) (locked) Heading home from work now and will log back in about an hour...lets hope ras has this one wrong...bol

Total continues to plummet and is now 157.5

[ManBearPig]

I have been tracking the line movement in the WNBA this season using open and close from BM because that's where I usually play and have noticed this throughout but never checked the stats. I'm well aware that this is far from scientific and it's a single book and not name Pinny, but is interesting.

The record for totals in the WNBA when the line moves up or down by at least 3 points.

>=+3
7-1 in favor of over

<=-3 (for you math whizzes...less is more)
5-3 in favor of over

for a combined record of

12-4 in favor of over.

If the line gets down to 158 at BM it will be a full 3pt move.

[alamo]

I have been tracking the line movement in the WNBA this season using open and close from BM because that's where I usually play and have noticed this throughout but never checked the stats. I'm well aware that this is far from scientific and it's a single book and not name Pinny, but is interesting. The record for totals in the WNBA when the line moves up or down by at least 3 points. >=+3 7-1 in favor of over <=-3 (for you math whizzes...less is more) 5-3 in favor of over for a combined record of 12-4 in favor of over. If the line gets down to 158 at BM it will be a full 3pt move.

Interesting but I guess we need to put a further filter on this to see how many of those were RAS plays

[yydouble]

so the game goes over every time the line moves 3 pts either way?

[yydouble]

12-4 i mean

[Love The Action]

I think you nailed it LTA in basically eliminating as much excess noise as possible and trusting your own abilities. I've gotten myself into too much trouble by allowing outside influences swaying me because they are respected or the line was moving too much and talked myself out of winning plays. RAS has to be respected and it does make me wonder why they like the under here, but it's one game and if you win great, if not, there's always next game. If you get too caught up in outside noise and winning every game you will hurt yourself in the long-run.

I didn't expect you to change your play based on this info, but as a capper it's nice to have as much information as possible, including but not limited to what established players/services are playing.

BOL tonight

I agree. However, I do not keep track of who takes what just because I only have so much time and I devote as much as possible to game analysis. I encourage you or whoever to post stuff like this or any other thoughts you may have on any plays. You contribution is appreciated.

[Love The Action]

Again, I'm not saying for 1 second you are on the wrong side or should follow/fade anyone with this play or any play. My argument is the fact that you are automatically discounting the line movement as "false" because it's by RAS. The line has moved 2 full points since the release, probably the last .5 point to 159 by followers. That's all.

What would you think if the line moved 2 full points an hour after you posted a play? It sure as heck wouldn't be false, it would be real as the books respect your opinion, money and "followers". You just can't discount stuff like that, in the long run you can make money knowing as much info as possible.

The moves, as we've seen, are not always accurate but they are relevant in the process.

Thanks for you contribution. I always encourage you to post comments whether in support of or against my plays because only through discourse will we all become better at this profession.

Here is what I will say in response. I respect a line that move 4 points because of natural market correction much more than a line that moves 4 points because a particular tout/capper/whoever is on a play. When money floods into the market because of one person's plays, I do not give as much credence to such movement as I will when a line makes such a move on its own.

I think one issue we need to discuss is why RAS liked this game under and what methods he uses to make his plays. If he is an "insider" that has unique knowledge as to a player injury, coaching decision to be made or some other factor that can affect a final score, then perhaps I would give such market moves caused by him more weight. However, if RAS uses math, modeling, situational or other capping method to make his plays -- those very same methods which are used by me, MBP, 70kg, Roag, SJ, Ragiche or anyone else on here -- then why should I give more weight to such a play? I would only weight RAS's line moves higher if they are based on inside info and not if they are based on traditional capping techniques.

Do you know how or why RAS might make a particular play or what capping methods he usually employs?

[Love The Action]

I have been tracking the line movement in the WNBA this season using open and close from BM because that's where I usually play and have noticed this throughout but never checked the stats. I'm well aware that this is far from scientific and it's a single book and not name Pinny, but is interesting.

The record for totals in the WNBA when the line moves up or down by at least 3 points.

>=+3
7-1 in favor of over

<=-3 (for you math whizzes...less is more)
5-3 in favor of over

for a combined record of

12-4 in favor of over.

If the line gets down to 158 at BM it will be a full 3pt move.

Very interesting and something to watch moving forward. Thank you very much for sharing this information. These are the types of posts that we need more of around in these forums.

As you mention, I think we need to incorporate a pinny tracker for this trend as well. If anyone has the time to help out the group, I am sure everyone will appreciate it. Let's all work together to make this money!

[gtboy]

[quote=ManBearPig;10758838]I have been tracking the line movement in the WNBA this season using open and close from BM because that's where I usually play and have noticed this throughout but never checked the stats. I'm well aware that this is far from scientific and it's a single book and not name Pinny, but is interesting.

The record for totals in the WNBA when the line moves up or down by at least 3 points.



forgive my ignorance, what is BM. I have been trying to understand line movments my self but i use covers. is there any other sites that gives accurate figures. thanks mate.

[Love The Action]

forgive my ignorance, what is BM. I have been trying to understand line movments my self but i use covers. is there any other sites that gives accurate figures. thanks mate.

Never be afraid to ask questions - that is how you learn. When MBP refers to BM, he is referring to Bookmaker the sportsbook. You can track BM's movements on Covers, however, I would generally say SBR Odds is much, much better. If you can afford a pay service such as sportsinsights, then that will provide you will real time line moves at all major books and a ton of other unique sportsbook related data. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

This game is going to come right down to the wire...it is 63-57 with 23 seconds left in the third quarter as I type. That puts the game on a 161 point pace. Hopefully, we can get those famous WNBA late fouls -- which have already cost me about four under plays -- to boost this one over 161. Good luck all over backers!

[Gee]

Looks like you might get it over with fouls!

ugh.

I'm on the under 159.

edit: it was probably an over paced game anyway. Nice call.

[yydouble]

no way jose. 35% from floor for SA. so much for my coaching theory! What a joke of a product. If I were in NBA I would DEMAND they shut down the WNBA before they cut my pay! This is why the NBA is losing $!

[ManBearPig]

I agree. However, I do not keep track of who takes what just because I only have so much time and I devote as much as possible to game analysis. I encourage you or whoever to post stuff like this or any other thoughts you may have on any plays. You contribution is appreciated.

No problem...to be honest I think the WNBA is the only sport where I've seen a service touted as much. I've heard both sides so I guess I thought it relevant, but as you said you can only devote so much time. We do all have lives here after...well most of us.

As pour through some of this data I may notice other things so I'll point those out as well. I really wish I had more data because I would probably find more.

Hahaha...158...unfreakinreal. Needed 158.5. Dare I ask how that went down at the end of the game?

...ahhhh I see they didn't foul down by 10 with 10sec left. That's not very lady like.

[Cannon]

RAS!!

[ebemiss]

Thanks for you contribution. I always encourage you to post comments whether in support of or against my plays because only through discourse will we all become better at this profession.

Here is what I will say in response. I respect a line that move 4 points because of natural market correction much more than a line that moves 4 points because a particular tout/capper/whoever is on a play. When money floods into the market because of one person's plays, I do not give as much credence to such movement as I will when a line makes such a move on its own.

So basically you're saying if a bunch of money from the public comes in and moves the line, you value that over a someone/group. A natural market correction in these small market sports are being done by individuals and groups who know the market better or as well as the books. Your thinking may work in other sports but you're wrong to assume it in the WNBA.

Like they say in Hoosiers, Boys, we're gonna run the picket fence at em...Now, don't get caught watching the paint dry.~

Dismiss the line moves because you perceive them as an overreaction, and you won't learn anything. They aren't always right but they will make you look at the game differently when handicapping it.

[Love The Action]

RAS!!

[Love The Action]

So basically you're saying if a bunch of money from the public comes in and moves the line, you value that over a someone/group. A natural market correction in these small market sports are being done by individuals and groups who know the market better or as well as the books. Your thinking may work in other sports but you're wrong to assume it in the WNBA.

Like they say in Hoosiers, Boys, we're gonna run the picket fence at em...Now, don't get caught watching the paint dry.~

Dismiss the line moves because you perceive them as an overreaction, and you won't learn anything.

See, I think I was not clear. I do not dismiss any line move, much less RAS's moves. However, I do weight line moves differently, just like I rate starting pitchers in baseball or any other capping factor on different levels. Not all line moves are the same. I can spot a public line move from a sharp steam move from a mile away. However, RAS is only one type of sharp steam move and I know where his money is coming from (i.e. his followers). While I respect RAS steam, I respect other syndicate steam more (where the money is coming from heavier hitters). Surely you cannot be saying that RAS is the be all and end all in sportsbetting. I respect his abilities, but I would not go there.

[Love The Action]

WNBA Recap 7/12/11

0 - 2 = -2.235x

WNBA 2011 Season

33 - 29 = +0.85x

Tough day...we lose the under by 5 points and the over by 1 point.

In essence, the late fouling and lucky shooting killed the under by 5 points, but we don't get any late fouling and they end up shooting horribly to screw our over by 1 point.

I guess women in sport, just as in life, were sent here to torment us men

Just kidding, I love the ladies! Four more games tomorrow to make amends for today. I am even more motivated than ever to conquer this sport and will achieve my 20x - 30x profit goal by the end of the season. We have been up as much as 14x on the season and now are down as low 0.80x. Nowhere to go but up!

[ebemiss]

See, I think I was not clear. I do not dismiss any line move, much less RAS's moves. However, I do weight line moves differently, just like I rate starting pitchers in baseball or any other capping factor on different levels. Not all line moves are the same. I can spot a public line move from a sharp steam move from a mile away. However, RAS is only one type of sharp steam move and I know where his money is coming from (i.e. his followers). While I respect RAS steam, I respect other syndicate steam more (where the money is coming from heavier hitters). Surely you cannot be saying that RAS is the be all and end all in sportsbetting. I respect his abilities, but I would not go there.

You were perfectly clear. You said you value their line move less in numerous posts.

You said tonight was a "false" line move. It was sharp whether it won or not. It was not a public move. They released the play and the line moved. The first 1-2 points is not a public move.

I also never said he was the be all end all in sports betting. However in the WNBA if they release a pick and the line moves a few points, I'd double check my figures, trends, whatever you use to handicap and make sure you really love your play. That doesn't mean change the play, as they are wrong, it means respect the move on the line.

I think I have a great totals model and know the game, I watch the line moves and their plays and respect their success. I'm trying to learn as well.

[Love The Action]

You were perfectly clear. You said you value their line move less in numerous posts.

You said tonight was a "false" line move. It was sharp whether it won or not. It was not a public move. They released the play and the line moved. The first 1-2 points is not a public move.

I also never said he was the be all end all in sports betting. However in the WNBA if they release a pick and the line moves a few points, I'd double check my figures, trends, whatever you use to handicap and make sure you really love your play. That doesn't mean change the play, as they are wrong, it means respect the move on the line.

I think I have a great totals model and know the game, I watch the line moves and their plays and respect their success. I'm trying to learn as well.

Good luck. Feel free to post your leans/plays and other thoughts in this thread. Let's all make some money this year. Plenty of time...from now until October 15th with the playoffs so a run is coming and with four games tomorrow I am pumped for some women's basketball. Never thought in my life I would say that

[ebemiss]

good luck with the plays

[Love The Action]

good luck with the plays

[alamo]

LTA all the games tomorrow or midday or thereabouts. Will you be capping these tonight?

[Love The Action]

Wow...why in the world would the WNBA hold their biggest card in awhile during the late morning/afternoon, when they essentially have the sportsworld to themselves tomorrow if they held the games in primetime. For a league struggling to generate and foster a following, that is one of the dumbest ideas I have seen in a long time. Does anyone know if there is a particular reason for holding the games that early? That is definitely something to factor into your final plays for tomorrow.

[Love The Action]

LTA all the games tomorrow or midday or thereabouts. Will you be capping these tonight?

All of my plays will be posted as early as possible tomorrow morning.

[RoagBettor]

Wow...why in the world would the WNBA hold their biggest card in awhile during the late morning/afternoon, when they essentially have the sportsworld to themselves tomorrow if they held the games in primetime. For a league struggling to generate and foster a following, that is one of the dumbest ideas I have seen in a long time. Does anyone know if there is a particular reason for holding the games that early? That is definitely something to factor into your final plays for tomorrow.

It's "Camp Day" where kids are brought into the games by bus, that's why the early starts