I played the over at 158 wow. i expect SA to do a better job especially at the end.fken whores. kidding. o well at least i got a push. i did cash both copa unders and alstar under, thanks to sloppy hitting by the AL and poor luck for UGAR.
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So I don't have to worry in the AM, I locked in the under on both morning games. Let's hope the early starts lead to a low scoring 1H in both games.Comment -
So did you take the game unders or just the 1h unders? 1h results have been quite unpredictable so far. Earlier in the season the 1h were low scoring, but lately have been higher scoring.
It looks like this will be a big under day for me as well. Both my model and my capping independent of my model points to multiple unders today. I also may have a big play under for multiple units. Hopefully, this ends up being a great day so I am not pissed off half-way through my work-day with my assistants and co-workers wondering what the hell is wrong with me.
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Let's have a big day today. I have my plays ready to go and I'm just waiting for one my locals to open their WNBA lines. I'm hoping it happens soon. Good luck on everyone's plays today!Comment -
Let's get it lta. Not really a fan of the baseball thread living elsewhere but understand why. Does themlb thread stay near the top or get bumped pretty quick?Comment -
WNBA 7/13/11
Play #1
Phoenix/Minnesota under (182) 2x (Locked)
Play #2
Tulsa/Chicago under (156) 1.25x (Locked)
Play #3
Connecticut/Indiana under (150.5) 1x (Locked)
I have to take off for work. I will try to provide some analysis before the games. I love the Mercury/Lynx under as my play of the day. I think we see the Lynx provide the one of the best defensive tests the Mercury have faced all year and the Mercury should return that play in kind. I think the Mercury really provide one of their top road defensive efforts all year. The Mercury have played to two unders in a row, while the Lynx have played to 3 unders out of their last five games. The teams are a combined 1 - 3 o/u in day games on the season showing an under lean in these early start times. Mercury is 2-2 o/u on 2 days rest this year with an average of 174.2. My model has totals of 169 based on season stats, 170 based on H/A scoring, 169 based on last 5 games and 170 based on the last ten games. Therefore, I like the value I am getting here at 182 and my play of the day is on that under.
I just don't see Tulsa scoring today with Latta out of the lineup, when you consider their offensive woes with her in the lineup. Chicago is trending under and head to head trends point under here. With both teams trending under in every conceivable situational category, I am rolling under here. My model projections are a bit inflated because Tulsa just played the Mercury in back to back games and gave up a lot of points, but I still have this game projected right around the 156 number even with those inflated stats. I'm rolling under in this one for 1.25x and am thinking about adding to this one or playing the 1h under.
I also like the the Sun/Fever under. Just like in the Tulsa game, all the trends point under in this game whether head to head trends or individual team trends. All of my model's projections are under 150 by at least one point, so I am rolling under here for 1x.
In the Dream/Liberty game, I lean over but my model's projections do not necessarily correspond in all the categories I calculate (season, H/A, L5 and L10). Therefore, I am waiting to see where the line goes before I make a play on this one (if at all). I may just sit this one out, but we'll see.
Good luck on everyone's plays today!Comment -
Good luck with your WNBA card today, I hope you cash some wins!
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Added 0.25x for a total of 1.5x Tulsa/Chicago under (1.25x under 156 & 0.25x under 155)
I just had a chance to post this add on now, but locked it in on my way to work when the steam started dropping. In hindsight, I wish I had made this a 2x play when I originally locked it in at 156. However, lets just cash the 1.5x en route to a big day. Good luck guys...Comment -
Bol today LTA, gonna be on the plays with ya.
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I'm with you on all those plays except I have the over in the Sun/Fever game. You know I've been looking at 1H/2H plays more in this league since I have the data to look at I can look for angles or lines that are off. I've found one angle that seems to be profitable for 2H plays, but it's only come up 4 times this season so far and is 4-0. Since I'm tracking everything myself manually it's been slow to accumulate stats. Now that I have some I'll be looking for more angles and a better way to accumulate this stuff prob dump into Access and go to town...way too manual right now.So did you take the game unders or just the 1h unders? 1h results have been quite unpredictable so far. Earlier in the season the 1h were low scoring, but lately have been higher scoring. It looks like this will be a big under day for me as well. Both my model and my capping independent of my model points to multiple unders today. I also may have a big play under for multiple units. Hopefully, this ends up being a great day so I am not pissed off half-way through my work-day with my assistants and co-workers wondering what the hell is wrong with me.
For your co-workers sake I hope you have a great day as well
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Can anyone defend the run away train that is the mercury?Comment -
WTF, I didn't get a minute of free time at work today and then I just go to check the scores and see that freeking Mercury/Lynx under was blown out of the water. God, did either team miss a damn shot.
So pissed, but no excuses. Just a dogshit call by me. Sorry to those that tailed...I will not allow this to continue and we will go on a monster run soon. Nothing I can do but go home after a 10 hour day at work and go cap Thursday's MLB and WNBA games for six hours or so. These BS losses will stop. That I promise.Comment -
you should be careful with those high totals they are set that high for a reason, often times the oddsmakers know somethign we dont and then you get buried, similar to nba totals in the 215-220 rangeComment -
I agree in a sense. In another sense, high totals are meant to be exploited sometimes. Just look at the Golden State Warriors who had every game set above 200, usually in the 210 range, yet was one of the best under bets all year. Another example would be the Knicks toward the end of the season and Denver as well. Both teams ended up hitting more 200+ unders than overs.
The Books are setting their lines based primarily on math, with every possible trend, injury and other factor that affects the outcome figured in.
I am generally of the belief that the whole books lean this way or books lean that way is given too much importance. I think when one game of a matchup goes way under, but the very next matchup is set abnormally high (or vice versa), then that is one way a book might show a lean. However, that was not the case here.
Anyway, I generally take every single game on its own. If my deviation line is 10 points off, I generally have to play that game. I do agree with you though, but primarily when it comes to the Mercury. They are, I believe, 8-4 o/u with totals set in the 180's, so if you bet the over on all of those you would have made a nice profit.
Point well taken though, thanks and good luck.Comment -
LTA, you know I have the greatest respect for your capping abilities so please don't take this the wrong way. But before the season started, I stated my #1 Rule for betting WNBA is "NEVER BET A PHOENIX MERCURY UNDER!".
I know there are going to be games of theirs that go under, but you're really rolling the dice because this team reminds me of the Mercury team 2 years ago. They never let up offensively, ever, whether they're hitting shots or not. And they are loaded with scorers.
There are simply better plays out there to make in my opinion. Trying to figure out when Phoenix is going to have a bad shooting night is a tough task.
Certainly not telling you what to bet, just some friendly advice based upon my experience with this team over the years.
You're one of the best all-around cappers around here so just keep doing your thing.
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It's like any play, you gotta pick your spots. However, it's definitely not a +ev wager at this point. I'm with you bud, it's not a play I will be looking to make, but I just know the next time I like a Mercury under, I'll lay off and it will end up hitting...that's always the wayLTA, you know I have the greatest respect for your capping abilities so please don't take this the wrong way. But before the season started, I stated my #1 Rule for betting WNBA is "NEVER BET A PHOENIX MERCURY UNDER!".
I know there are going to be games of theirs that go under, but you're really rolling the dice because this team reminds me of the Mercury team 2 years ago. They never let up offensively, ever, whether they're hitting shots or not. And they are loaded with scorers.
There are simply better plays out there to make in my opinion. Trying to figure out when Phoenix is going to have a bad shooting night is a tough task.
Certainly not telling you what to bet, just some friendly advice based upon my experience with this team over the years.
You're one of the best all-around cappers around here so just keep doing your thing.
Thanks for the insight...glad to see you continuing your winning ways. Keep it up!
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Here's what I see...at home take PHO no questions asked only 1 under for 1-4 in favor of the over. On the road it's not so simple they are 4-4 and I don't see any real solid correlation. Nothing sticks out at a glance.Comment -
Exactly! How do you think I came up with that rule in the first place? LOL 2 seasons ago I was cashing Mercury overs like crazy, then went against everything I knew and picked an under one time. Bam, way over! I said NEVER AGAIN!It's like any play, you gotta pick your spots. However, it's definitely not a +ev wager at this point. I'm with you bud, it's not a play I will be looking to make, but I just know the next time I like a Mercury under, I'll lay off and it will end up hitting...that's always the way
Thanks for the insight...glad to see you continuing your winning ways. Keep it up!
That's why we love to bet on sports though, isn't it?
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First MLB play of the 2h just posted in my MLB thread here http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...mlb-plays.html...
For my first play of the day and of the MLB 2h, I'm rolling with the Giants/Padres under (6)(+100) for 1.25x. Other MLB plays to follow.
I will most likely have a play on the total in tonight's big Storm/Silver Stars game. I am also contemplating a play on the side. I will cap that game further at work and will let you know my thoughts later.
Glad to have MLB back and it's time to get rolling again in WNBA. Tonight's big WNBA game is the perfect opportunity. If RAS makes a play on that one, I would ask that someone alert us in this thread so we know. Whenever he locks something in there is huge steam, so that could create more value for us or require that we lock in a play really quick so as to not lose any value. I appreciate your help.
Good luck to everyone today!Comment -
It's all good LTA. Still fine tuning. This chick B-Ball is a whole different animal. GL today.
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Waiting on some line movement before making my play on todays total...no play on the side.Comment -
Do you like the over ? Beacause the line seems to go down.Comment -
Yes...not worried about line movement on this way...I can make a case for the under as well but I have this one capped at 153, so I'm sticking with my model. Pinny still juicing the under at 149.5, so I am going to wait and try to get 149...I will post when I lock it...bol.Comment -
Good luck, LTA.Comment -
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WNBA 7/14/11
Seattle/SA over (149.5) 1x (Locked)
I'm going with the over in tonight's lone WNBA game. I have an overall total of 153, a H/A total of 152, a total of 153 based on the last five games and a total and a total of 154 based on the last ten games. With every one of projections showing the over here, I'm hard-pressed not to play this game. I do fear taking a Seattle over period, but especially when they are on the road (1-4 o/u on the year away from Seattle). However, we have a pretty strong head-to-head trend with 5 of the last 7 going over. Bottom line is that SA has not been scoring and has been playing poor defense, whereas, Seattle's shooting is on an upswing. In their last five games, Seattle has shot 50%, 54%, 43%, 47% and 41%. I expect SA to give up some easy shots to a better shooting Storm team. On the other side, SA needs to get their early season offense back in motion and I think we see more urgency from SA on the offensive end and a quick pace looking for transition baskets. We've been struggling in WNBA recently, so you might want to play this one light if your tailing. Nevertheless, I'm rolling with the over for 1x knowing I will get hot soon with the ladies. Good luck!Comment -
Geez...I'm already making the prayer call for OT...
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Seattle shooting 18%....
I'm actually trying to watch this game on ESPN 2, but it's making my eyes bleed.Comment -
Missed the start of the game. Going to take a shot at the live line which is 124.5 and go over with you LTComment -
European book. Back to 130.5 now. At least one of us will win !Comment -
That chick Beckie Hammon is sort of hot...Danielle Adams...uh no.
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