Roag's NBA Regular Season Thread

[williams22]

The Bulls have a better chance of beating the Spurs at home in their season opener with the Spurs on a back to back than beating Miami on the road, yes, that's what I believe. Just like you thought the Cavs would be 2-0 by now

No, I expected a tough loss to the Celtics and a win against Toronto. This was a reasonable expectation as the Cavs have far more talent overall than Toronto. However, the talent difference between Chicago and San Antonio is immense. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I think Vegas has people waaaaay overthinking this game. All of the Spurs played less than 30 minutes last night, they shouldn't be tired. Also, Gregg Popovich eats guys like Vinny Del Negro for breakfast.

[lakerboy]

Good discussion guys. Bottom line Bulls and BLazers win .

[cap10]

i think its too early in the season to factor in fatigue in back to backs;; players are all fresh;; with cle yest i think it was not fatigue but the cavs being overrated due to shak;; dude will hurt this team;;and lebron has nyork on his mind;;; plus tor will be a play-on tm till they prove me wrong;;

so will the pistons;; ham and gordon will shoot the lights out this yr;;

[haserfauld]

General teaser recommendations:

Always tease the dogs when it looks like the line is too lopsided (similarly talented teams).
Always tease the favs when it looks like a blatant mismatch of teams (SAC @ BOS, for example).
Avoid taking the lakers unless you can get them -8 or lower.
When there's only 2-3 games on a board, the books try extra hard to get people to bite on sucker bets, which 90% of the time are home team favorites. Take the away/dog and add the points. or lay off all together.
Don't be afraid to pass on a day if there's only one game or no games you really like. There's hundreds of games a season. Don't try to force a teaser you don't 100% believe in.
Try not to tease past 0*. If you have a team that's -5, and you expect them to win outright, you're wasting 3 free points by shifting them past zero. It'd be more valuable to to a 2-team 5 point teaser then. Chances are, if they lose, they're going to lose by more than 3.
Remember, the books make money off of the majority losing. So sometimes, crazy as it may sound, it's not a bad call to bet against the majority. If it's a toss up, call it a no play or fade the public.


*(unless going from -2 to +6 or something along those lines on a matchup you're very confident will be close)

Thats all for now.

[RoagBettor]

General teaser recommendations:

Always tease the dogs when it looks like the line is too lopsided (similarly talented teams).
Always tease the favs when it looks like a blatant mismatch of teams (SAC @ BOS, for example).
Avoid taking the lakers unless you can get them -8 or lower.
When there's only 2-3 games on a board, the books try extra hard to get people to bite on sucker bets, which 90% of the time are home team favorites. Take the away/dog and add the points. or lay off all together.
Don't be afraid to pass on a day if there's only one game or no games you really like. There's hundreds of games a season. Don't try to force a teaser you don't 100% believe in.
Try not to tease past 0*. If you have a team that's -5, and you expect them to win outright, you're wasting 3 free points by shifting them past zero. It'd be more valuable to to a 2-team 5 point teaser then. Chances are, if they lose, they're going to lose by more than 3.
Remember, the books make money off of the majority losing. So sometimes, crazy as it may sound, it's not a bad call to bet against the majority. If it's a toss up, call it a no play or fade the public.


*(unless going from -2 to +6 or something along those lines on a matchup you're very confident will be close)

Thats all for now.

[cap10]

over at scores and odds almost 90% of the vegas money is on spurs and nuggets;; i guess i am playing the public today;;

[RoagBettor]

over at scores and odds almost 90% of the vegas money is on spurs and nuggets;; i guess i am playing the public today;;

And both lines went the other way.

My motto is "Always Be on the Side of the Books"

[cap10]

these rlms can cloud the picture but if i have a good feeling about a game like i did yest with det i just stick to my guns;;

i am out ;;
gl roag et al

[monkeybiz]

Well.....maybe always ! Tough NFL season for the books especially last weekend. So many blowouts by favorites. But we're talking NBA here, so..

Tonite

San Antonio -2.5

1 unit (actually 1.1 but it's easier to keep track of this way. Always thought your betting unit should be a function of what you bet, not what you might win)

2009/2010 NBA
Posted Picks 4-2 66.6% (that will send me straight to hell even if gambling doesn't)
Up 1.8 units $180

Thanks for the Teaser 101 remedial course, Has.

[travisowain]

all this bulls and "under" talk is making me nervous

[SportsTerminator]

No lines for tomorrow yet? C'mon. I want to be the public lol. I hope it's out tonight.

[travisowain]

i use "mysportsbook.com", does anyone use that or have an opinion on it?

[joanapoker]

Roag,
guess you won't be using DENVER +16 in a teaser with 2 other plays tomorrow?

[Saluki09]

I am a huge Bulls fans and im saying if you dont take the Spurs -3, you're missing out. Rose is playing hurt and only expect him to play 25-30 mins. Not to mention if they're getting blown out, there's no way Vinny is putting Rose out there knowing they have Boston tomorrow. I also agree with everyone who is taking Denver +8.

[monkeybiz]

Ok Gang...all these Teaser tutorials have at least aroused my curiosity. But where do you get 8 point 3 teamers ? My book offers 6 points and even though it's a positive payout does not appear to let you buy points.

As usual, apologize for not knowing anything.

[travisowain]

yea, i only get 7pts at mysportsbook.com...and i dont get the Nuggs +8 either. who cares back to back games the 2nd game of the season

[monkeybiz]

I see Denver +8 just about everywhere.

Good luck !

[monkeybiz]

Sorry, mis-read your post...

[haserfauld]

bookmaker.com has the best values with 8pt/3team for -120. betus has them also at -140 i think, and they have the 9pt/4team at -130. I use bookmaker and betus, just because I like betus's quarter / team total bets. I've heard very mixed reviews about betus but I've had nothing but pleasant experience with them.

[RoagBettor]

My computer crashed, I just got it back up in safe mode.

So far I think I'm taking:

Denver +16
Lakers -.5
Cavs -3.5

[monkeybiz]

Bookmaker. That's the first place I looked and this is what I see:

3 Team+145+135+125

Meaning 5...5.5....and 6.

Don't have an account there so I'm just seeing the intro pages. Maybe you can buy points when you are actually entering a wager ?

If I keep this up, I'm going to be betting 3 teamers within a week ! But I must admit I'm more than a little intrigued !

As always, Thanx

[MUHerd37]

bookmaker.com has the best values with 8pt/3team for -120. betus has them also at -140 i think, and they have the 9pt/4team at -130. I use bookmaker and betus, just because I like betus's quarter / team total bets. I've heard very mixed reviews about betus but I've had nothing but pleasant experience with them.

BetUS has the 8pt/3team teasers at -120

[MUHerd37]

BTW right now on that 8 pt teaser you can get Orlando -2 tomorrow at the Nets which I really like. It was -1 till about 5 mins ago. I got em at both. The Nets lost last night by 2 at the Timberwolves so I think u gotta like Orlando.

[haserfauld]

BetUS has the 8pt/3team teasers at -120

I just logged in and I get them at -140

[SportsTerminator]

Roag are you looking at the lines for Friday. It's so many EZ $ games to chose from. I feel like a kid in a toy store. I'm going to try and narrow it down to the 2-3 teams who should surely win, so many. Lol.

[haserfauld]

Bookmaker. That's the first place I looked and this is what I see:

3 Team+145+135+125

Meaning 5...5.5....and 6.

Don't have an account there so I'm just seeing the intro pages. Maybe you can buy points when you are actually entering a wager ?

If I keep this up, I'm going to be betting 3 teamers within a week ! But I must admit I'm more than a little intrigued !

As always, Thanx

Bookmaker has a teaser option once you click NBA: 3 Team BK 8 pt Special Teaser

You probably need an account to see it, I'm not sure

[SportsTerminator]

For a 3 point 8 teaser I got... Philly +.5 (Buckss) Orlando -2 (Nets), Utah -1.5 (Clippers), and Lakers -.5 (Dallas)... Hmmm which 1 should I drop. The Bucks are horrible and Philly should destroy them at home. But Philly is sketchy sometimes. Orlando should roll over the Nets. Utah is a monster at home and they were dominating the Nuggets most of the game in Denver. And Dallas isn't that great and doesn't play defense. Utah should win... hmm... lol.

[monkeybiz]

Cool...thanks. I can't see it but I just might have to slide them a few $$$ in case I want to join in this madness !

[travisowain]

For a 3 point 8 teaser I got... Philly +.5 (Buckss) Orlando -2 (Nets), Utah -1.5 (Clippers), and Lakers -.5 (Dallas)... Hmmm which 1 should I drop. The Bucks are horrible and Philly should destroy them at home. But Philly is sketchy sometimes. Orlando should roll over the Nets. Utah is a monster at home and they were dominating the Nuggets most of the game in Denver. And Dallas isn't that great and doesn't play defense. Utah should win... hmm... lol.

im from dallas, mavs fan until i die. but no J howard, and the lakers will have gasol back....gotta go lakers, it pains me to say. i even bet on them, it made me sick to my stomach when i confirmed magic-2, nuggs+15, lakers-1.5

[milkshakeballa]

Wow...seems like everyone is SPLIT on CHI/SA.

And I disagree that SA talent advantage is overwhelming.

Rose is a top 5 PG in the game as a 2nd year player. Deng is a stud at SF. Noah is not a bust. He impacts the game without scoring. Thomas a bust?? He has improved every year since he has been in the league and word is he has improved his jumper tremendously over the summer. Heinrich off the bench. Salmons can fill it up (though not like Gordon I agree). With that said...I think SA is better than Denver and will win 55+ games this year...I just think that CHI is the play here.

GL all!

[haserfauld]

For a 3 point 8 teaser I got... Philly +.5 (Buckss) Orlando -2 (Nets), Utah -1.5 (Clippers), and Lakers -.5 (Dallas)... Hmmm which 1 should I drop. The Bucks are horrible and Philly should destroy them at home. But Philly is sketchy sometimes. Orlando should roll over the Nets. Utah is a monster at home and they were dominating the Nuggets most of the game in Denver. And Dallas isn't that great and doesn't play defense. Utah should win... hmm... lol.

of those four I'd definitely go orlando and the lakers. I'd have to lean on utah, although the clippers have surprised, despite being 0-2. utah -1.5 is a beautiful number though.

[PeePee]

My computer crashed, I just got it back up in safe mode.

So far I think I'm taking:

Denver +16
Lakers -.5
Cavs -3.5

Roag, Like the other 2 but not so sure about Cavs with the way they've been playing. May want to lay off them until they solve the issues on both ends. GL on your play though.
Thought on Utah at home against LAC? That would be a good teaser. Utah had always been tough at home regardless of the time of year. I don't see Clippers have any chance.

How bout them Rockets??? I saw that coming but Cavs ruined my night so I didn't want to chase. They will win many of those games against the bottom third teams. imo

[SportsTerminator]

no gasol on Friday... I'm starting to have doubts on the Lakers lol... Bynum hasn't been stepping up... the bench isn't that great... so it comes down to Kobe, Artest, and Odom.... but they are the Champs so...

my final tease will prob. be Utah, Orlando, and the Lakers. Clippers lost to the suns at home so Utah in Utah C'mon SON.

[milkshakeballa]

For a 3 point 8 teaser I got... Philly +.5 (Buckss) Orlando -2 (Nets), Utah -1.5 (Clippers), and Lakers -.5 (Dallas)... Hmmm which 1 should I drop. The Bucks are horrible and Philly should destroy them at home. But Philly is sketchy sometimes. Orlando should roll over the Nets. Utah is a monster at home and they were dominating the Nuggets most of the game in Denver. And Dallas isn't that great and doesn't play defense. Utah should win... hmm... lol.

IMO - drop Philly. On paper they are a very good team but I just don't trust them. Just can't seem to gel with Brand. They got DESTROYED last night every way possible. And the Bucks....yes not a lot of talent...but man Scott Skiles is such an underrated coach. His teams play hard for 48 MINUTES. Look for A LOT of backdoor covers with the Bucks team IMO.

[milkshakeballa]

no gasol on Friday... I'm starting to have doubts on the Lakers lol... Bynum hasn't been stepping up... the bench isn't that great... so it comes down to Kobe, Artest, and Odom.... but they are the Champs so...

my final tease will prob. be Utah, Orlando, and the Lakers. Clippers lost to the suns at home so Utah in Utah C'mon SON.

Terminator:

Bynum had 26/13 Tuesday. And Dallas is a good enough team to where the Lakers will have their guard up. They aren't the Bobcats! For Kobe's WHOLE career he has DOMINATED the Mavs.

I think Lakers win comfortable between 8-12. Lakers up 18-20 going into the 4rth and scrubs give up some of that lead with couple minutes to go.