Originally posted by Saluki09
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I think the Wiz are going to win 50 games and have a better record than the Hawks when all is said and done...but with no Jamison...I think the play is with LA. Dallas is a *good enough* team to catch the attention of the Lakers. Bynum dropped 26/13 and will get a lot of touches and minutes again with no Pau. Just IMO though!
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Wheres this guyOriginally posted by travisowain
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First look at Friday:
MIL@PHI: Not going to touch it. MIL on paper is BAD. But Scott Skiles is such a damn good coach. And Philly just can't gel with Brand. They got the backdoor cover against ORL but -7.5 for them is a suckerbet IMO. Not going touch it! Need to see PHI another week or two before I go with them again (got lucky on that backdoor @ORL
- not going push it!).
NY@CHA: This Knick team IMO is going to LOSE a lot of people's money this year IMO. Ton of players on that team playing for a contract. Selfish. No defense. As long as they put up their 20 they are fine. Think you can throw CHA game out @ BOS as well. Not touching this one either. Like the here at 195. Larry Brown is going to WALK the ball up everytime down. Going slow the pace to a crawl. Doubt NY even makes it to 100...
WAS@ATL: I show 77% on WAS right now. Looks like people already caught on
. Def. going throw this into a teaser tomorrow and get WAS @ a +14 ish. Arenas looks GREAT. No way they get blown out. Thinking about throwing them in a 4-5 team parlay I might get in on! Also strongly leaning on going with a unit on the O here @ 202. ATL put up 120 and gave up 109 to IND while WAS put up 102. Think both these teams get to 100 EASILY. Will confirm 2morrow!
CHI@BOS: Bos favored by 12 is way too much for a team as talented and deep as CHI. CHI will def. be in my teaser @ +19 ish. Heinrich Miller Gibson and Pargo off the bench is 9 deep. Look for them to make a statement and keep it close going into the last 5 minutes.
OKC@DET: I'm showing 71% on DET @ SportsInsight and line moved from -7 to -5.5. Loving OKC as is for my teaser regardless of the RLM. Think they have a GREAT shot of winning SU and making a huge statement.
MIA@IND: Very tough game to cap this early IMO. Granger looked superb in his debut and IND really gave ATL a battle on the road and they are usually an ATS monster @ home IIRC? Probably not going to touch this game...73% is on Miami btw.
SAC@NO: Teaser play here with NO at -11. Will lock them in at -3 ish. No way they lose to SAC @ home after getting WAXED in their opener IMO even though I really don't trust this team. Think they will lose a lot of people $$$ this year as well.
TOR@MEM: Going to JAM TOR at -4. Watched a lot of their game against CLE and this team is FOR REAL. Man the East is much improved. Def. play on the teaser as well IMO. TOR at -4 I think would be my POD! 80% already on TOR.
CLE@MIN: CLE at -11.5 is a free game with the teaser! Lock them in at -3 or -4 and its cake. No way they lose this game. Look for them to win by 15+.
ORL@NJ: ORL @ -9.5. DEF. teaser material at -2 or -3. 2nd best team in the East and 3rd best team in the league IMO.
LAC@UTA: Utah favored by 9.5. Would DEF. teaser this to death at Utah -2. Their home opener. Clips comign off of a tough loss in the final moments. Their late game execution is HORRIFIC courtesy of Coach DUMBleavy. BUT BUT BUT....what is Okur's status? http://www.sltrib.com/jazz/ci_12173083 PER SLT TRIBUNE chances are LOW. So I'm going to wait until tomorrow and see if anything new comes out. If Okur plays no doubt going with Utah. If he doesn't play...still a SLIGHT lean with Utah...not 100% though!
GSW@PHO: PHO favored by 8. But damn they looked BAD against the Clips. Then you got GSW who is BAD. Public split down the middle. Hard to teaser GSW - could easily see PHO running GSW off the floor and winning by 16+. Not sure here. Not touching the O/U here. 227 just seems crazy high for the 2nd game of the year and I'm not going to touch it.
DAL@LAL: No Pau. No problem. DAL is "good enough" to get the Laker's attention. Teaser it down to LAL -2 ish and they should be good. Kobe historically KILLS Dallas and LO has played Dirk very well in the past.
Conclusions:
Love WAS, CHI, OKC, NO, TOR, CLE, ORL, LAL
Thinking about a RARE ML parlay:
Dogs: CHI, OKC, WAS - think they all have a good shot at winning
and throwing in some favs: LAL, ORL, TOR, NO
Would be a BEAUTIFUL payout. Doubt I pull the trigger though.
Like the O on WAS/ATL.
Lean on U CHA/NY
Will put actual picks tomorrow afternoon!
BOL ALL!Comment -
And I am not an expert...so take my predictions with a GRAIN OF SALT!!! Love to hear your tohughts about them though!Comment -
nice hit, but if you look at your teaser, you see that you would had hit the 3 with the original spread, making that -110 teaser to a +596 Parlay!!! Just doens't sounds profitable in the long run.....but Roag thinks otherwise!!Originally posted by milkshakeballa
Anyways here is my play for 2day guys just a 3 team special.
3 team special
CHI +10.5
DEN +15.5
DEN/POR U 208
1.8 units to win 1.5
GL everyone!
wich book do u use that allows to bet the spread and total of the same game in the teaser/parlay?Comment -
to roag....great pick. bulls gave them some trouble. i still think over 193 was a good pick cause san antonio was really pushing the ball, they just missed a TON of shots in that second half. they shot like 36% or something.
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jp, hindsight is always 20/20. There have been times where I've played a 5 or 6 team teaser and they all covered the original spread. If I had a crystal ball I'd have just parlayed them, but the fact of the matter is you're lucky to hit 1 out of every 20 parlays.Originally posted by joanapokerComment -
I told you that the Spurs are a second-tier team. They are living off of past glory, and are nowhere near the caliber of the Lakers and Celtics. People who are infatuated with them need to rethink their position because if you keep betting the Spurs especially on the road you're going to lose a lot of money.Originally posted by travisowain to roag....great pick. bulls gave them some trouble. i still think over 193 was a good pick cause san antonio was really pushing the ball, they just missed a TON of shots in that second half. they shot like 36% or something.Comment -
Indiana Pacers -1 (-110)
$75 to win $68.18Comment -
who watched the hornets? are they THAT terrible? i wanna tease the kings up to +19.5 but if people think the hornets can come back and make a statement after a bad loss im not gonna touch it. im doing this on the fact that it takes a good team AND luck to beat another team by 20points, not cause i think the kings are decentComment -
Tease the Kings up to 19.5, that is a gift.
I have the Kings +16.5 in my 5 point teaser, and that should be plenty.Comment -
Thinking
Heat +12
Knicks +12.5
Kings +21.5
Bulls +22
Maybe change heat to Wizards +17?Comment -
I wreckon the Heat can win this game against the Pacers, but will be close as will the Knicks against the Cats.Comment -
Why not take the Lakers instead of the Heat?Comment -
i wanna tease the thunder to 11pts against the pistons, cause i think the thunder are gonna be really good this year, but it steps outside of the 8-10pt original line im trying to abide by. it seems inefficient (a waste of points) to tease to 11. im really doing it cause my gut tells me the thunder are gonna be solid. anyone watch the pistons in their first game? how did they look? sorry for all the questions. just trying to check what my instincts tell me to do against others opinions so i can see if my mindset is trash without having to learn via lost $$$$Comment -
and im gonna throw down the OVER in the pacers/heat game...+210...if they put the knicks/heat game at 208, and the knicks cant score to save their life then pacers at 210 is a no brainer to me...me and my boy have been dropping "locks" on each other every day and keeping track of it, so far i do the best with over/under, so im sticking with em and throwing this down as a LOCK of the day!!! my gold boot stamp, platinum capper certified, diamond etched pick of the day!!! with that said, rip me a new one everybody! bring it
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Dallas worries me, as talented as the Lakers are, Dallas has great players too. If Dirk is hot, it may spark a win at the Staples or am i talking myself out of an easy Lakers win. I'd get Lakers +1.5 with the 10 point tease
Lakers +1.5
Knicks +12.5
Kings +21.5
Bulls +22
Better pick?Comment -
MILKSHAKEBALLA...i love the wizards and thunder moneyline parlay. im gonna put a little on that tonight. i was feeling the same thing as well but you gave me the nuts to make it happen. and to saluki-->love your pictureComment -
Guys, be careful with the Wizards. I don't see them winning 2 big road games in a row. Atlanta is tough at home.
I like the following ML parlay:
Sixers
Hawks
Pistons (Thunder have to prove themselves on the road)
Cavs
Raptors
Magic
Sun
Lakers
If you're going to play some dogs, I'd take the Clippers and the Knicks.Comment -
5 Team 1H Parlay
Pacers PK
Raptors -2
Cavs -6.5
Magic -5.5
Lakers -4.5
$10 to win $228.84
That's it, I've placed all my NBA bets for the day. Best of luck to everyone tonight!Comment -
Another great bet from the Roagster. I'm putting together a crazy little somethin' for tonight. I think this is what I'm going to go with. Huge payout and seems pretty safe. Let me know if there's anything you guys think would be a safer replacement for any of these.
8 Team Parlay
Boston ML
New Orleans ML
Utah ML
Cleveland ML
Indiana ML
Orlando -5 [First Half]
Toronto -2 [First Half]
LA Lakers -5 [First Half]
Risk 20: Win 418Comment -
Okay here we go. Big money tonight!
7 Bet Teaser
Philadelphia -2.5
Sacramento 16.5
Cleveland -6.5
LA Clippers 14.5
Orlando -4.5
LA Lakers -3.5
GS/Phoenix ov 222
25:200
8 Bet Parlay
Boston ML
New Orleans ML
Utah ML
Cleveland ML
Indiana ML
Orlando -5 1H
Toronto -2 1H
LA Lakers -5 1H
20:418
4 Bet Parlay
Cleveland ML
New Orleans ML
LA Lakers ML
Boston ML
50:40
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can you change the 1half bets to 1st quarter bets? i cant parlay 1st quarter bets at my site. i trust 1st quarter more than half. toronto feels like the weakest bet there. i would take the over in pacers/heat game. but thats just cause i have a feeling about the pacers this year and they shot lights out in atlanta and i think they can do the same at home...i like your bets though. its a great payout for the risk. good choicesComment -
I like 1st quarter bets myself but the bookie I'm going through only offers 1H unfortunatelyOriginally posted by travisowainComment -
is there a website that allows 3rd quarter lines? i know it sounds stupid, but im just wonderingComment -
Doesn't sound stupid. There are a lot of great 3Q NBA teams but I've never heard of such a bet.Comment -
personally, and this is with a couple years of pro-ball experience and playing in the pac-10, i think the 3rd quarter is the most important quarter in the game. it correlates with a win more so than any other quarter. it either sets you up for a dogfight in the 4th or a breeze in the park. that is where the TOP teams step on peoples throats and finish the game off. you wouldnt wanna take a decent team over a terrible team in the 3rd, but you would definetly take a top tier team against a decent team, even if its -4 in both cases. i wouldnt take it higher than -4 thoughComment -
Not at all! Still think the teaser was the play. I do regret not ML parlay the Nugs and Bulls (both thought they would win SU) but all is well!!!Originally posted by joanapoker
I'm at JustBet.com. They are meh. Don't offer any lines overnight but you can throw same game teasers inComment -
NO looked BAD. With that said...the Kings are REALLY BAD and no way NO loses this game at home. Comes down to what you think is more likely to happen:Originally posted by travisowain
NO wins by 3 or 4
King lose by less than 19 ish
BOL to you!Comment -
I'm in the same boat as you Travis. Teasing the Thunder here seem like a bad play. Not sure what I'm going to do but def. consider a small ML play and/or parlay.Originally posted by travisowain
Detroit looked very good. Very fluid on offense. Gordon was on fire in the first half. But they played Memphis! I think Detroit is a little underrated at this point. They def. looked like a playoff. But so do our Thunder!!! More I talk about DET more I want to lay off this game! We'll see!
BOL Travis!Comment -
Originally posted by travisowain
BOL!
just don't be mad at me! 2 dogs in a night! Chances aren't in your favor but I could def. see it happening!Comment -
Man...a lot you guys think the Clips will keep it close vs. Utah huh? I have no faith in that team ESPECIALLY without Griffin. Baron isn't 100%. Uth is and always will be a beast at home. It's their home opener.
BOL though!Comment -
2 great parlays by Roag and Donk. GL fellas.Comment -
the clips kept it close in both games so far this year and showed flashes of being decent. not that i think they are good, or can even hang with Utah on most nights (im a huge fan, me and deron played summer and school ball together since the 5th grade). but with that said, the clips have surprised me in both games so it just gives me an uneasy feeling. i like, and i think we all do, going with teams that havent stung usOriginally posted by milkshakeballaComment -
Tough nite for a straight spread bettor. (that's why I called Bookmaker this morning..that 8 point 3 teamer seems too good to be true).
Anyway, leaning this way:
Philly -6.5 over Milwaukee. The bucks are all banged up and I would have the sixers a 4 or 5 point favorite at a neutral site. So, at home I think they cover the 6.5
Wash +6.5 over Atlanta I see these two teams as pretty much equal. Wizards had great bench scoring against the Mavs. And the lowly Pacers stayed close to the Hawks for most of the game Wednesday. As long as the Wizards can pull off 2 consecutive road covers against pretty much equal teams.
Also like the Bobcats over the Knicks at home and the Hornets over the Kings even with the big #.
Picks laterComment
