MrXYZ's NRL thread

davopnz · 03-21-13, 01:02 AM

have you seen the weather?

dRavidC · 03-21-13, 02:15 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Seems like the board is on the UNDER. My only advice is to be wary of following the trend in low scoring games between Storm & Bulldogs.

Good luck tonight.

i guess someone will end up a winner tonight

Tim Gerry Mander · 03-21-13, 05:52 AM

Nice hit at the end with a flurry of tries in the last 20 mins.

Were you nervous at HT?

Congrats mate!

MrXYZ · 03-21-13, 05:55 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

MELBOURNE STORM vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Game Total OVER 34.5 @1.85 x4

The Storm are lethal right now. They destroyed the Cowboys on the road last week and now the books are baiting punters to take the Bulldogs +10.5. So much for the Grand Final rematch.

I was expecting this total to open higher, in fact TAB has 36.5 which is just about right. Therefore I'm jumping on Sportsbet's 34.5 while I can, they're way off. Rain is expected to clear in time for kick-off. 36.5 is a key psychological number that will scare people off. When other books open with that number, "sharps," public, whatever may drive it down to 35.5 but I don't care, this one is going over.

Good luck, for me 4 units is pushing it, if you want to take a shot at hitting the over at 36.5 manage your risk carefully.

Final score 22-18.

Lesson over for today.

MrXYZ · 03-21-13, 06:01 AM

Originally posted by Tim Gerry Mander

Nice hit at the end with a flurry of tries in the last 20 mins.

Were you nervous at HT?

Congrats mate!

Thanks bro, I did think "here we go again" but knew if they scored early in the second half it had a chance. What a game, Storm jut tore them open & then to top it off we had that thrilling Bullldogs try to seal it.

dRavidC · 03-21-13, 06:53 AM

congrats mate

MrXYZ · 03-21-13, 09:26 PM

Originally posted by dRavidC

congrats mate

Thanks! Good luck with your NRL plays.

MrXYZ · 03-21-13, 09:45 PM

WESTS TIGERS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
Game Total OVER 40.5 @1.90 x1

About as square as it gets. Expecting missed tackles & line breaks galore. Just 1 unit in case it fizzles out.

the tross · 03-22-13, 03:44 AM

Loving your form right now MrXYZ .like it. Margin 1-12 tigs / over 40.5 for me. Goodluck man.

MrXYZ · 03-22-13, 05:03 AM

Originally posted by the tross

Loving your form right now MrXYZ .like it. Margin 1-12 tigs / over 40.5 for me. Goodluck man.

Thanks bro, hopefully Parra scores enough to cash tigers 1-12 for you.

Domestic · 03-22-13, 05:38 AM

Phew, nice conversion.

MrXYZ · 03-22-13, 06:24 AM

Final score: Tigers win 31-18. Cash the easy winner!

Round 3: 2-0 +4.3 units $215
NRL Season Record: 6-5 -4.1 units -$205

MrXYZ · 03-22-13, 10:55 PM

GOLD COAST TITANS vs MANLY SEA EAGLES
Game Total OVER 37.5 @1.90 x5

Rolling with the over for a big play. Expecting this one to go off for 40+ points.

Good luck.

MrXYZ · 03-23-13, 02:03 AM

Not looking good,

MrXYZ · 03-23-13, 02:13 AM

Fukkn disaster.

Adding live play:
game total OVER 20.5 @1.90 x5

Tim Gerry Mander · 03-23-13, 02:44 AM

5 units - phuck me

Apparently they have the 2 best defences so far this season.

MrXYZ · 03-23-13, 04:26 AM

1-1 -0.5 units -$25
NRL Season Record: 7-6 -4.6 units -$230

Final score: 16-14. Manly & Titans come up with near scoreless 1st half, then follow it with 28 points. This one had no hope of going over & I was dead wrong. Salvaged by the live play but no excuse for getting carried away and dumping 5 units on it. Almost undid the last couple of days work. Could've buried myself.

MrXYZ · 03-23-13, 04:29 AM

Got a small Halftime play:

SYDNEY ROOSTERS vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
Broncos +8.5 @1.90 x0.50

MrXYZ · 03-23-13, 06:40 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Got a small Halftime play:

SYDNEY ROOSTERS vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
Broncos +8.5 @1.90 x0.50

Broncos are hopeless this year. Held scoreless for fukks sake, against the Roosters of all teams. At least they held on to cover.

+0.45 units $22.50
NRL Season Record: 8-6 -4.15 units -$207.50

MrXYZ · 03-23-13, 07:04 AM

PENRITH PANTHERS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABITTOHS
Game Total OVER 42.5 @1.90 x5

This should be a repeat of the Tigers/Parra game. It's my strongest lean for Sunday's card & worth the 5 unit risk. The smart thing to do would be to grind myself back to profit, especially after today's near disaster. But at the same time this is too good an opportunity to pass up. This game has scorefest written all over it.

Tail or fade, good luck.

Tim Gerry Mander · 03-23-13, 10:32 AM

Bloody Broncos

MrXYZ · 03-24-13, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

PENRITH PANTHERS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABITTOHS
Game Total OVER 42.5 @1.90 x5

This should be a repeat of the Tigers/Parra game. It's my strongest lean for Sunday's card & worth the 5 unit risk. The smart thing to do would be to grind myself back to profit, especially after today's near disaster. But at the same time this is too good an opportunity to pass up. This game has scorefest written all over it.

Tail or fade, good luck.

I hope some of you guys were on this easy winner. Cash it at halftime!

MrXYZ · 03-24-13, 01:25 AM

Double post

MrXYZ · 03-24-13, 01:38 AM

CANBERRA RAIDERS vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
Game total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x0.50

Raiders are a complete mess & don't deserve to be -4 favs against anyone. Dragons meanwhile have well and truly lost any goodwill remaining from their 2010 Premiership team. Having said all that we should see a high scoring game as mistakes lead to points & offenses finally start to connect. A small play as they could just as well bomb easy tries all night.

Good luck.

hjrozay · 03-24-13, 01:43 AM

Nice cash with the over between South Sydney and Penrith. The 70 degree heat in Penrith really helped this cash. You're looking like you're getting back into the black quite quickly.

Donkey · 03-24-13, 01:47 AM

best of luck, on the over as well. being a raiders fan i would normally go to the game but with the way theyve been playing the last 2 weeks i think id have left the game by half time

dRavidC · 03-24-13, 02:35 AM

wow what a bail out there well done mate. that game totally slipped my mind definitely should of made a play on that one.

MrXYZ · 03-24-13, 03:27 AM

Thanks guys.

Let's see if this game opens up in the second half. Both teams suck right now. Soward's field goal may come into play towards the end. Hard to see them pulling out 28 points, but stranger things have happened in the NRL this year.

Domestic · 03-24-13, 04:01 AM

Grats on a perfect day man.

MrXYZ · 03-24-13, 08:43 PM

Originally posted by Domestic

Grats on a perfect day man.

Thanks! The season is now back on track:

Yesterday: +4.95 units $247.50
NRL Season Record: 10-6
+0.80 units $40

MrXYZ · 03-24-13, 09:09 PM

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs NORTH QLD COWBOYS
Game Total OVER 40.5 @1.90 x2.5

If not for last week it would've opened at 44. Without the defense of Manly or Storm to get in way of a scorefest, it's OVER or no play tonight.

Good luck. TAB was offering 38.5 earlier but I missed it.Looks like the books have decided on 40.5.

MrXYZ · 03-25-13, 05:11 AM

Final score: 34-6. Buried by half a point. What a joke.

Sol · 03-25-13, 06:08 AM

Unlucky man. There have been a few brutal losses early this season. Cowboys offered nothing and it still should of went over.

Keep up the good work.

MrXYZ · 03-26-13, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by Sol

Unlucky man. There have been a few brutal losses early this season. Cowboys offered nothing and it still should of went over.

Keep up the good work.

Thanks Sol. If not for these beats I'd be up 15-20 units by now.

MrXYZ · 03-26-13, 09:01 PM

MANLY SEA EAGLES vs WESTS TIGERS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x5

Time to kick off Round 4. Manly's solid defense faces a big test against the masterful Benji. Tigers meanwhile will give away too many points to worry about this one turning into a grind.

Found 38.5 at Sportsbet, and suspect other books will be the same or open at 40.5.

Good luck.

Will update my record later. After making it back to +units, I'm now sitting at -1.7 for the season thanks to the Cows meltdown.