MrXYZ's NRL thread

[MrXYZ]

ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
DRAGONS +3.5 @1.90 x1

Almost forgot about today's Bennett Derby. Great value here from TAB with the Dragons at home a much better team than +3.5 suggests against the overhyped Knights. Other books have 3 & 2.5, still worth a play.

[MrXYZ]

Cash both winners! Reynolds kick seals the OVER with Souths winning 24-22, then the Dragons hold on to defeat the Knights 19-16!

[MrXYZ]

NZL WARRIORS vs SOUTHS RABBITOHS
Game Total OVER 44.5@1.95 x2

ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
DRAGONS +3.5 @1.90 x1

.

Great result! 2 winners & the NRL season is profitable again.

2-0 +2.80 units +$140
NRL Season Record: 19-16 +2.30 units +$115

[MrXYZ]

MELBOURNE STORM vs WESTS TIGERS
Game Total OVER 42.5 @1.90 x1

[MrXYZ]

Should've passed on this game. Tigers defense frustrated the Storm long enough to kill the over.

If Storm stay healthy it's back to back premierships in 2013.

0-1 -1.0 units -$50
NRL Season Record: 19-17 +1.30 units +$65

[dRavidC]

unlucky there MrXYZ. if only there was more than 12 points in the first half, this game would of gone over.

[MrXYZ]

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs NQL COWBOYS
Game Total OVER 36.5 x2

Gotta roll with the over tonight. Books got this one wrong & I'm expecting 38-42 points scored in what should be one of the most exciting games of the round.

Good luck.

[MrXYZ]

Passing on the Roosters/Bulldogs game. Dogs +3.5 looks tempting. Also think this one could sneak OVER.

[MrXYZ]

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs NQL COWBOYS
Game Total OVER 36.5 x2

Gotta roll with the over tonight. Books got this one wrong & I'm expecting 38-42 points scored in what should be one of the most exciting games of the round.

Good luck.

Broncos grind out 12-10 win. Got this one totally wrong. No excuses. Might start fading myself.

Looks like the forum got buried today. Still can't believe Bulldogs/Roosters went over. What a joke.

0-1 -2.0 units -$100
NRL Season Record: 19-18 -0.70 units -$35

[MrXYZ]

NEWCASTKE KNIGHTS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
Game Total OVER 40.0 @1.90 x3

Outstanding value from Sportsbet. TAB's got 42.5 & it's what I expect from other books. Doesn't matter, this one has no trouble going OVER.

[MrXYZ]

SOUTHS RABBITOHS vs MELBOURNE STORM
Game Total OVER 36.5 @1.90 x1

With both teams capable of scoring in bursts it's over or no play. But could turn into an arm wrestle so just 1 unit at risk.

Good luck.

[MrXYZ]

CANBERRA RAIDERS vs NZL WARRIORS
Game Total OVER 42.5 @1.90 x5

This one is set to go off for 50+ points. Could be the highest scoring game of the round.

[MrXYZ]

Buried.

[MrXYZ]

Got every single game wrong, badly. Embarrassing doesn't even begin to describe my NRL weekend so far.

Had lined up a couple of plays for tomorrow but not sure it's worth it, looks like I'm done for the season. Very difficult to dig myself out of this hole now.

0-3. -9 units -$450
NRL Season Record: 19-21 -9.70 units -$485

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Does anyone know what the o/u count is standing at currently?

Keep at it mate - looks to me that the refs have put the whistle away for slowing down the play or hands on the ball in the tackle.

First few rounds they were blowing for everything, now not so much. Hence more unders are hitting.

[MrXYZ]

You're right, the refs must have been told to cut down on penalties. Last week it got out of hand, especially the Storm/Tigers game.

[davopnz]

you back too many overs in such a robotic sport

[MrXYZ]

WEST TIGERS vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
Game Total UNDER 40.0 @1.90 x5

Great value by Centrebet. TAB's got 40.5 @1.80 while other books have 38.5. This one will be all about grinding out metres & clamping down on defense. Dragons usually go for a kick in penalty situations & it may come into to play for UNDER backers sweating it out.

Good luck.

[MrXYZ]

you back too many overs in such a robotic sport

Been doing this for a while bro, but thanks for your input. I haven't made the adjustments & it's killed me so far.

[hedgejob]

Does anyone know what the o/u count is standing at currently?

At least twice as many unders from what I've seen.

[MrXYZ]

MANLY SEA EAGLES vs CRONULLA SHARKS
MANLY -14.0 @1.95 x2

A lot of points to cover, however at home Manly are near unbeatable and they're up against Cronulla's stagnant offence. Without Carney it's hard to see them scoring more than 6 points.

[MrXYZ]

PARRAMATTA EELS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x3

Last play for the round. Tail or fade, good luck.

[MrXYZ]

Cashed the 2 big plays, great result today.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

How many more games will Ben Roberts get a run for?

[MrXYZ]

Surely he's on his way to the NSW Cup for the rest of the year. After that who knows, maybe another crap team will give him a lifeline.

Congrats on sweeping the round.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Thanks mate, hope you jumped on a few of the plays.

Who yyou liking in the test match? Surely with Kurt Gidley playing the kiwis are are a shot to win?

[MrXYZ]

I like Oz -16.5. Without Benji Marshall, it's hard to see NZ staying close. By far their best player.

[MrXYZ]

Updating the record. A solid last day of Round 6 helped salvage the weekend.

Just the Anzac Test & City vs Country this weekend. Might have a play or two.

Sunday: +5.2 units $260
NRL Season Record: 21-22 -4.5 units -$225

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I like Oz -16.5. Without Benji Marshall, it's hard to see NZ staying close. By far their best player.

I think benji is past it.

Foran is a gun, they don't lose too much with Johnson and Foran in the halves.

Chuck in Luke, they have a solid spine, with Hoffman the weakest link.

Line out to 17.5 on Sportingbet.

[MrXYZ]

Round 7
SYDNEY ROOSTERS vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
Game Total UNDER 36.5 @1.90 x5

Big play to kick off the round. We won't see more than 32 points in this one.

Good luck.

[MrXYZ]

Buried.

[MrXYZ]

MELBOURNE STORM vs NZ WARRIORS
Game Total OVER 40.5. @1.90 x6

[MrXYZ]

A terrible start with the Roosters putting on a 34-10 tryfest against the Dragons. But then Slater cashed the Storm play, scoring a try with less than 5 minutes left in the game! That would've been brutal. Storm win 28-18.

Today: 1-1 +0.40 units $20
NRL Season Record: 22-23 -4.1units -$205

[MrXYZ]

MANLY SEA EAGLES vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Game Total UNDER 36.5 @1.90 x5

Not much to say about this one. Two of the best defenses in the NRL should contain the total to 34 points max. I'm very confident it will be a low scoring contest. But as we with the Roosters, a solid UNDER play can get blown away fairly quickly.

Good luck.

[MrXYZ]

Bunnies racking up points. Gonna have to sweat this one out.