MrXYZ's NRL thread

[MrXYZ]

I'm starting my own Rugby League thread to be more of a contributor to this forum, offer picks and track my results.

First up:

Friday 24 June
BULLDOGS vs WEST TIGERS

Tigers missing Benji vs beaten down Dogs. Sounds like a Disney movie. One week isn't enough for them to adjust to life without their star & I think the Dogs will get this one.

BULLDOGS -3.5 @1.87 1 unit play.

Good luck!

[MrXYZ]

Friday 24 June
BRISBANE BRONCOS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Broncos too good tonight. With Lockyer & Co heading off to Origin, they'll want to put the Bunnies away & secure those 2 points. While Souths have the potential for an upset & will make it a contest, they'll have to play their best for the whole 80 minutes & can't seem to do that very often. Mistakes will be costly in this one.

BRONCOS -3.5@1.78 x 1 Unit. Bought 1 point.

[MrXYZ]

BULLDOGS -3.5 @1.87 score:16-6
BRONCOS -3.5@1.78: score:12-14

1-1.

Bulldogs return to form & some great defense by the Rabbitohs. Stayed away from the totals on both games, was leaning under in the first & over in the second, so it wouldn't have made any difference.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 25 June
CRONULLA SHARKS vs GOLD COAST TITANS

Picking the Sharks to take this one in a high scoring & entertaining game.
SHARKS ML @1.97
GAME TOTAL OVER 37.5@1.90

Whoever you pick to win, tread lightly as this game could swing wildly either way.

good luck!

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 24 June
CANBERRA RAIDERS vs PARRAMATTA EELS

Raiders are unpredictable, but have the talent to get this one. In this game against an improving Eels, being at home on a freezing night is just enough of an edge for a much needed win.

RAIDERS -2.5@1.92

good luck!

[MrXYZ]

Adding:
RAIDERS vs EELS
GAME TOTAL UNDER 41.5 @1.90

[MrXYZ]

SHARKS ML @1.97
GAME TOTAL OVER 37.5@1.90

RAIDERS -2.5@1.92
GAME TOTAL UNDER 41.5 @1.90

4-0!!!

record so far: 5-1

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 26 June
MELBOURNE STORM VS NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS

Storm are the best team in the comp right now & will be too disciplined and consistent against a tough Warriors today, who've lost the plot this year but will keep this one close.

STORM ML @1.85

Good luck!

[HueyF]

All the Best. Hope the great weekend continues

[Shifty107]

Nice start to the season XYZ. But im leaning Warriors here mate. Melbourne maybe be at the top of the table but they are not the best team in the comp. Yes the Warriors have self destructed a few times this year, but they are a very good football side, and have a much bigger stronger pack than Melbourne.I felt Melbourne were lucky to win against the tigers last week. The tigers were gaining so many metres each set of six while Melbourne would only manage in the 20's more than a few time during the game.

I think the value is on NZ here at home.

[MrXYZ]

Some great points & agree with most of them. League's a hard game to beat & I appreciate your insights. Warriors are awesome when they're on form & should've beaten the Cowboys last week. Good luck today

Total set at 35.5. Leaning under but might give it a pass.

[MrXYZ]

All the Best. Hope the great weekend continues

Thanks & good luck with your plays.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 26 June
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS vs PENRITH PANTHERS

Going with the Panthers, after a rough week they're set to take a win against the Cowboys. JT may not be 100% recovered from his ankle problem too.

PANTHERS -2.5 @1.92

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 26 June
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS

It'll be close but the Roosters will get this one. ML @2.03 is better value but there's nothing worse than losing to a golden point so...

ROOSTERS +1.5 @1.92

[MrXYZ]

ADDING:
PANTHERS VS COWBOYS
Game total under 43.5 @1.95

Cowboys are a try machine, and it's easier to go with the crowd but I'm taking the under this week. Tread lightly if you play it.

[MrXYZ]

STORM ML @1.85

PANTHERS -2.5 @1.92
Game total under 43.5 @1.95

ROOSTERS +1.5 @1.92

Cashed Storm early(as I suspected the Warriors came undone)& Panthers won in style to keep the streak going. But it was killed by that total play (I thought it was a reasonable shot, plain dumb, my apologies) and a lacklustre Roosters who are done for the year.At least they're good fade material from now on...

I ended up taking the Storm/Warriors under but since I didn't confirm it in a post it wont count towards the record.
Today: 2-2
Record so far: 7-3.

[MrXYZ]

Monday 27 June
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs MANLY SEA EAGLES

Dragons are needing a win to get themselves back on track & they'll get it against the streaking Eagles. I think they'll be too strong today. It's one of the most hyped games & will draw huge bets on each side, but I suspect as we get to kickoff a heap of late action on Dragons will push the line out. If you'd rather take the ML do it sooner rather than later.

DRAGONS -2.5 @1.92

Good luck!

[HueyF]

On the same play. All the best. Lets finish the weekend strong!

[MrXYZ]

DRAGONS -2.5 @1.92

I hope some of you guys cashed that easy win! Outstanding defense from the Dragons, a classy effort all round.

What a weekend, they won't all be like this & it's still a long season but its sweeet to set myself a $$$ goal & make it.

Today:1-0
Record so far:8-3.

[Bazz27]

Nice tipping XYZ, should of read your post earlier as had manly +2.5, who u like this wk or maybe to early yet with injuries, origin ect. Do u follow afl at all, im still alive in 'last man standing' where u pick 1 winner per wk to stay alive, had nth melb last sunday @-13.5, i see its now down to about 650 left from original 20k starters, lms wins 50k, cheers

[MrXYZ]

Nice tipping XYZ, should of read your post earlier as had manly +2.5, who u like this wk or maybe to early yet with injuries, origin ect. Do u follow afl at all, im still alive in 'last man standing' where u pick 1 winner per wk to stay alive, had nth melb last sunday @-13.5, i see its now down to about 650 left from original 20k starters, lms wins 50k, cheers

Thanks, it was up for grabs for a good part of the game & Manly could've made it 14-12 & from then on anything could've happened.

It's still a bit early, would have to say Raiders & St George so far, will do more work on this round later.

With AFL, the style of footy & high scores make it hard to be consistent & I limit myself to 1 or 2 small plays a week, as it'd be easy to wind up blowing my winnings from other sports.

Well done on staying in that comp, $50k is a damn good prize, good luck with it! Gold Coast have a chance to scrape home with +42.5 & St Kilda -3.5 looks good, but these are my early hunches more than anything.

[MrXYZ]

The opening lines are up for NRL Round 17, got these off Centrebet:



Panthers +4.5, Dragons -2.0 & Raiders @1.90(will move around IMO) look good so far, will do my homework & post up plays later in the week. These split Origin rounds are tough & unpredictable to pick, but fun to watch as a footy fan.

Good luck everyone!

[MrXYZ]

Friday 01 July
PARRAMATTA EELS vs BRISBANE BRONCOS

The Eels are stumbling along but against a young & Origin-depleted Broncos will have the confidence to grab a win. There's always the possibility of an upset, but with Lockyer, Thaiday, Hannan, Hodges, Parker & Yow Yeh missing it's not likely.

ML is 1.65 & worth a shot for a more conservative play, however the Eels should cover the points in this one.

EELS -3.5 @1.92

Good luck!

[MrXYZ]

Game total set at 37.5, a coin toss number so no play is a good idea.

[MrXYZ]

EELS -3.5 @1.92

This one was never in doubt. Eels tied it up at 12-12 but Broncos wanted it more & deserved the win.

0-1
Record so far: 8-4.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 02 July
PENRITH PANTHERS vs BULLDOGS

Another tough game to pick. Both teams are looking for back-to-back victories but the Panthers are thinned out by Origin/injuries & their internal problems haven't gone away. Bulldogs weren't firing at their best against the Tigers last week but will build on that game to win & cover the points.

BULLDOGS -4.5 @1.92

Good luck!

[MrXYZ]

Bulldogs outplayed, just plain suck.

[MrXYZ]

BULLDOGS -4.5 @1.92

A frustrating game. down 0-12 within minutes & it was all over before half time.

Round 17: 0-2
Record so far: 8-5

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 03 July
CRONULLA SHARKS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Bunnies are without GI & Taylor today. But with the Broncos & Panthers outclassing their near-full strength opponents(and in doing so killing a number of big punters), the missing player angle has been a non factor so far. However I expect this trend to end today. This should be a high scoring game with several lead changes. ML is better value but I prefer to go with Sharks & the points in this one.

SHARKS +2 @1.87

Good luck, let's get some wins today!

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 03 July
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS

Even without 6 players due to Origin, St George have the goods to get this one against the Knights.

ST GEORGE -3.5 @1.87

Good luck!

[MrXYZ]

SHARKS +2 @1.87
ST GEORGE -3.5 @1.87

Sharks blew away the Bunnies with an easy 26-4 win, while the Dragons squandered a 6-0 halftime lead & went down 10-14.

Round 17: 1-3
Results so far: 9-6 66.6%

[MrXYZ]

Monday 04 July
SYDNEY ROOSTERS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS

Going with the Raiders in this one & expecting a low scoring game.

RAIDERS ML @1.87
GAME TOTAL UNDER 38 @1.85

Good luck!

[goty0405]

I just got on the Raiders too. Come on green machine!

[MrXYZ]

RAIDERS ML @1.87
GAME TOTAL UNDER 38 @1.85

Raiders hammered the Roosters by 26 points, but in doing so killed the total play. Also a good example of why those +12 starts offered by the books are sucker bets.

Round 17: 2-4
Results so far: 10-7 58.8%

A mixed weekend but time to move on, looking forward to cashing more winners from Origin 3 & Round 18.

[MrXYZ]

Round 18. From Centrebet.



Warriors getting pounded, ML already down from 1.42 to 1.37 & line out to 8.0. Everyone's waiting for potential fallout from Origin 3 so I'll do my work on these games & maybe grab a couple of these openers. Look at Panthers, only -2.0 against the Roosters lol.