MrXYZ's NRL thread

[MrXYZ]

hi. i took a few moments to scan through your thread. some very good wins here. congrats.

just wondering where you're from and how you managed to get such a solid grip on the nrl, if you don't mind me asking?

cheers.

no, i'm not the tax man...

Thanks! NRL suits my capping style which is more situational. If I tried the same thing in MLB I'd get killed lol. It's just putting in a lot of work and time, absorbing everything and then trying to be intuitive while applying common sense. I live in Australia too and that helps obviously.

I tried something different this year which was to go light the 1st half, with only a couple of plays a week, to study how the teams/season was progressing. A lot of volatility & injuries so I was lucky to sidestep it. Then got serious during Origin & it's good to see some of the work is paying off. But NRL is a tough game to pick consistently & winners can turn into losers very easily with all the variables we're subject to as punters, not to mention the structure of sports betting itself.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 24/07/11
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
GAME TOTAL OVER 42.5 @1.90

This should be a high scoring & entertaining game. Very difficult to pick as side, but Warriors have a slight edge. Sticking with a total play & going with the over in this one.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 24 July
MANLY SEA EAGLES vs PENRITH PANTHERS

Monday 25 July
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS

PARLAY: SEA EAGLES ML/DRAGONS ML @2.06

I don't like the -6.5 line on both these games. The favourites will be tested but they should get the wins. Combining them adds risk but it's worth a shot at these odds.

[binomial]

GL.

hopefully doesn't rain for your total, but starting to look like it might.

[NEW_WORLD]

nice call on over, thanks for tips. hope eagles will win for us

[hawley]

Nice, was on tilt after a bad day of bases and went huge on that over

poor money management but ill take a big win to end the day

[benrama]

You are a freakin' money machine at the moment! I hedged out of the over on the Souths game with the rain, should have just stuck with it. That went WAAAY over.

Have Manly and St George in a number of parlays as well, so hope they hit for you.

[MrXYZ]

GL.

hopefully doesn't rain for your total, but starting to look like it might.

nice call on over, thanks for tips. hope eagles will win for us

Nice, was on tilt after a bad day of bases and went huge on that over

poor money management but ill take a big win to end the day

You are a freakin' money machine at the moment! I hedged out of the over on the Souths game with the rain, should have just stuck with it. That went WAAAY over.

Have Manly and St George in a number of parlays as well, so hope they hit for you.

Thanks guys, let's cash that over! One of my favourite plays of the year.

[aunty jack]

so the warriors put russell's bunnies to the sword...

i only caught snippets of the game on the abc while i was working outside, but it seemed like the over was never in doubt.

keep up the fine work.

[MrXYZ]

so the warriors put russell's bunnies to the sword...

i only caught snippets of the game on the abc while i was working outside, but it seemed like the over was never in doubt.

keep up the fine work.

Thanks! Both teams are over machines, even with rain threatening to slow them down they were a good shot at hitting the total.

[s2230011]

Well done on a great weekend ... !!!

What you thinking for tonight?

[MrXYZ]

Well done on a great weekend ... !!!

What you thinking for tonight?

Thanks!

I'm sticking with my parlay. The line's out to -7.5 & although this is a game the Dragons should win it's a tough spot for them. Their record at Canberra stadium is terrible & the Raiders want to come out strong after being humiliated by the Storm last week.

The ML @1.40 has little value but it's the only play I'd make if I was looking for more cash (might do so anyway). The total's set at 36.5-37.5. Pretty sharp, leaning under though it's hard to see the Raiders being held to 0 again.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 24 July

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
GAME TOTAL OVER 42.5 @1.90

MANLY SEA EAGLES vs PENRITH PANTHERS
Monday 25 July
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS

PARLAY: SEA EAGLES ML/DRAGONS ML @2.06

I don't like the -6.5 line on both these games. The favourites will be tested but they should get the wins. Combining them adds risk but it's worth a shot at these odds.

Dragons buried us all today, still can't believe how this game ended. Well done Raiders, they deserved their win, & I deserved to lose for throwing a few bucks on a 1.40 ML.

1-1
Round 20: 6-3
Record so far:31-15 67.39%

[goty0405]

Yeah the Dragons let us down but in all honesty I'm not too disappointed with it. When it got to the tough stage they slotted the field goal and looked winners but the Raiders only got there by winning the short kick off lottery. On most other days the Dragons come up with the ball and we're thankful for our excellent choice of bets

[benrama]

Burial alright! That game cost me my profit for the weekend, but it was still the right call. Had a bad feeling when I saw the game at 18-12 that this was going to be another upset. Dragons are such a different side away from home, and particularly interstate (or as good as, in the case of Canberra).

I never like it when the SBRforum is unanimously on one side, I find it nearly always ends up badly - usually means too the line has been pushed up too high on the other side and that is where the value lies. Live and learn - onto next week. Another great round MrXYZ keep it up!

[MrXYZ]

Thanks for the support guys, we've had some great wins lately & this is one of those games that sum up Monday night football. It's disappointing but this was a terrific week overall.

The lines are out tomorrow for Round 21 so it's back to work. There's some great matchups & plays to look forward to: Broncos vs Sharks, Manly vs Wests, Roosters Vs Bulldogs & Cowboys vs Penrith.

[MrXYZ]

Round 21, from Centrebet:



Sharp lines. Cronulla at +13.5 is the only one that grabs me so far. Might be worth the risk to take it early - it'll drop if Gallen plays.

[benrama]

On first inspection the lines that I like the most are Manly -5.5 and a Warrior/Knights parlay.

I watched most of the Wests v Roosters game and the Tigers are really not playing that impressively, and Manly are a beast at home - they're unbeaten at home, and have only won by less than 6 once, to the Eels in Round 15. They have beaten the Knights, Warriors, Panthers, NQ (with JT) all by more than 5.5 at Brookvale (Brisbane doesn't count as it was at Lang) - I see no reason why they won't do the same to the Tigers.

Rnd Opponent For (T-G-F) Agn (T-G-F) R
R3 H Newcastle 26 (5-3-0) 12 (2-2-0) W
R6 H Warriors 20 (4-2-0) 10 (2-1-0) W
R7 H Penrith 22 (4-3-0) 16 (3-2-0) W
R9 H Canberra 20 (4-2-0) 0 (0-0-0) W
R12 H Brisbane 34 (6-5-0) 10 (1-3-0) W
R14 H NQ 24 (4-4-0) 4 (1-0-0) W
R15 H Parramatta 22 (4-3-0) 18 (4-1-0) W
R18 H Souths 36 (7-4-0) 22 (4-3-0) W

[benrama]

And BTW, I also like taking Cronulla +13.5 and hoping for Gallen to be declared fit. Even if he's not you can hedge out of the play and just take a hit on the juice. It's a big game for the Sharks to stay close to the top 8 so I think they will err on the side of taking a risk.

[MrXYZ]

I re-watched the Roosters/Tigers game & agree, they're a team on the verge of getting hammered & it could happen this week. The media & local books are feeding the line that Benji can get them an upset - have to admit it's very persuasive but unlikely.

Unbeaten runs always end when you least expect them to but Manly should get the win on Friday.

[MrXYZ]

Just realized the Manly game's at Bluetongue Station, in the Central Coast. If anything it benefits the Tigers. Something to factor in.

[Bazz27]

Im going to b/tongue fri, tricky game but tigers are over rated - manly ml @1.50 x 3/units for me

[goty0405]

Got to agree. The Tigers are one of those teams that can turn on an amazing performance but it would have to be pretty special to beat Manly here.

[benrama]

Hmmmm, rookie mistake by me, I just assumed it would be at Brookvale. I think Manly still cover the -5.5 though, but it's not near as strong a play - obviously.

I think the stronger play for me then is to include Manly in a parlay, if Gallen is out, then Manly/Brisbane pays $1.80 which I think is a pretty solid bet. I also like the code combo play with Manly/Hawthorn.

Add Collingwood or Geelong to these parlays and they pay $1.95 or better.

These lines are getting tougher towards the end of the season ...

[s2230011]

I like the under 37.5 points for this game .. havent really looked at numbers yet but my gut feeling it will be a finals type game both plenty to play for and not throwing caution to the wind ! What do you guys think ?

[MrXYZ]

Hmmmm, rookie mistake by me, I just assumed it would be at Brookvale. I think Manly still cover the -5.5 though, but it's not near as strong a play - obviously.

I think the stronger play for me then is to include Manly in a parlay, if Gallen is out, then Manly/Brisbane pays $1.80 which I think is a pretty solid bet. I also like the code combo play with Manly/Hawthorn.

Add Collingwood or Geelong to these parlays and they pay $1.95 or better.

These lines are getting tougher towards the end of the season ...

Good luck with your play, be careful with those intercode parlays.

[s2230011]

What are you thinking for tonight MrXYZ?

[MrXYZ]

I like the under 37.5 points for this game .. havent really looked at numbers yet but my gut feeling it will be a finals type game both plenty to play for and not throwing caution to the wind ! What do you guys think ?

I'm going to wait & see on this one. Centrebet posted it at 38.5. It's a sharp line, both Manly & Wests can score very quickly but on the other hand they'll try to grind it out.

[MrXYZ]

Friday 29 July

MANLY SEA EAGLES vs WESTS TIGERS
SEA EAGLES -5.5 @1.87

Going with Manly in this one. It'll be a tense game though. Tigers may be over hyped but they're coming off 2 straight wins. Manly are on a dead-set mission for the premiership & may get there. But my concern is their slowdown in the second half against the Knights & an unimpressive win over the Panthers. However they're a far more professional and mentally tough outfit than the Tigers & will look to put them away.

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
BRONCOS -13.5 @1.92

Cronulla were on a great run, but then got steamrolled by St George & Newcastle. Now they face Broncos at Suncorp, who are in for a strong showing after last week's loss. Throw in the missing Gallen & it doesn't look good for the Sharks.

This was a tough call to make. It's a lot of points & I like staying away from such numbers. It seems like an easy pick to take the seemingly obvious +13.5. But if Broncos score a couple of quick tries the Sharks will lose the plot & we'll see absolute ass kicking action.

Good luck!

[MrXYZ]

Not sure what's going on with SBR, a whole bunch of posts are missing.

Friday 29 July

MANLY SEA EAGLES vs WESTS TIGERS
SEA EAGLES -5.5 @1.87

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
BRONCOS -13.5 @1.92

Manly had the game in their pocket but fell apart thanks to Benji. At least Broncos smashed the Sharks to save the night. Should've taken the over on that one.

1-1
Record so far: 32-16 66.67%

[MrXYZ]

Warning: I'm down a number of units this week & got killed in MLB/WNBA today. Losing like this can affect your decision making ability and this might be another tough betting session. But I've done my usual homework on today's NRL action and am confident on these plays. I feel it's only fair to let you guys know where I'm at.

Saturday 30 July
SYDNEY ROOSTERS vs BULLDOGS
ROOSTERS ML @1.85

The two biggest flops of the year line up to restore some pride & encourage whatever fans they have left to sign up for season tickets in 2012. Roosters have a bit more class and a slight edge to get them home in what should be a very close game.

NORTH QLD COWBOYS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
COWBOYS -4.0 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 43.5 @1.90

Cowboys were shoddy against the Titans and were headed for a loss until Matty Bowen led a second half comeback. Penrith were solid against Manly and came very close to an upset. They're a great team and deserve more respect from the bookies. But Cowboys at home will be too strong though & I expect them to take this one in style.

[NEW_WORLD]

good luck today with your plays

[MrXYZ]

good luck today with your plays

thanks!

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 30 July
SYDNEY ROOSTERS vs BULLDOGS
ROOSTERS ML @1.85

NORTH QLD COWBOYS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
COWBOYS -4.0 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 43.5 @1.90

I'm back, baby! A perfect day, could not have asked for a better result. First Roosters hold on by 4 points then Cowboys blitz the Panthers in the second half to cash both plays.

3-0
Round 21:4-1
Record so far: 35-16 68.63%

[aunty jack]

just checked the results on sportal.com. good comeback tonite!

from what i gather, wnba has been tough this season for most tipsters.

and as for mlb... it's absolutely friggin' relentless. there are so many games over such a long period. it does my head in.