MrXYZ's NRL thread

[MrXYZ]

Wed 06 July
STATE OF ORIGIN
QLD vs NSW

Going with the Maroons to win the series today & also a smaller play on them to cover the spread.

QLD ML @1.54
QLD -4.5 @1.92

Good luck!

[MrXYZ]

QLD ML @1.54
QLD -4.5 @1.92

Cash those wins! QLD dominated from start to finish.

2-0
Record so far: 12-7 63.16%

[MrXYZ]

Round 18 update:

1. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS 1.34 -8.5 : 1.92
2. NORTH QLD COWBOYS 3.30 +8.5 : 1.92

With JT out, Cowboys line blows out to +8.5. They have a good shot at covering, could even upset. It's Monday Night Football.

[MrXYZ]

Friday 08 July
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS vs GOLD COAST TITANS

Even with their coaching dramas, Warriors are at home & their size & talent will be too much for the Titans. It's a lot of points to cover but they should do it today.

WARRIORS -8.5 @1.90

Good luck!

[MrXYZ]

Friday 08 July
PARRAMATTA EELS vs WEST TIGERS

Two desperate teams in a coin toss game. Slightly lean Tigers though. They'll grind it out & I'm taking the under in this one.

GAME TOTAL UNDER 38.5 @1.90

Good luck

[MrXYZ]

double post

[MrXYZ]

WARRIORS -8.5 @1.90
WESTS/PARRA GAME TOTAL UNDER 38.5 @1.90

A great start to Round 18, with NZ Warriors easy winners & Parra/Tigers game total sailing under by 10 points.

Should've taken Parra +4.5 after the line blew out thanks to Benji's return, but thought Tigers would have the edge. But I'm happy to have stuck with the total. A tough game to pick & a few $5-10k punters got killed in this one.

Round 18: 2-0
Record so far: 14-7 66.67%

[goty0405]

Nice work mate. Good call on the Warriors covering that 8.5 point start.

[MrXYZ]

Nice work mate. Good call on the Warriors covering that 8.5 point start.

Thanks & congrats on hitting both your totals.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 09 July
CRONULLA SHARKS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS

This is one of those games that blows out in either direction or comes down to the last set of six. Two very evenly matched teams IMO. Going with the Sharks in this one. It'll be close & Raiders are very capable of taking the points, but the Sharks have the slight edge to get them the win.

SHARKS -2.5 @1.92

Good luck!

[goty0405]

I tend to agree with you on this game but I ended up betting on the Raiders! My simulation says this match is very even but has Canberra slight favourites so I bet them for value. But my gut says Cronulla should get up so I'm feeling torn

Good luck

[MrXYZ]

Adding:
CRONULLA SHARKS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
GAME TOTAL UNDER 40.5 @1.90

Even though both have strong attacking options, this will be a tight game & total was set too high IMO. It's easy to look at their last few games & expect a try fest but I'm taking a calculated risk it won't be the case today.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 09 July
BULLDOGS vs MELBOURNE STORM

The Storm are heavy favourites, but -5.5 @1.85 isn't great value. Even though Ennis is missing I still like the Bulldogs in this spot. It's a gut play but worth a shot.

BULLDOGS +6.5 @1.89 (bought 1 point)

Good luck!

[NEW_WORLD]

nice call on under
congrats

[goty0405]

Double well done for the Cronulla game!

[MrXYZ]

nice call on under
congrats

Double well done for the Cronulla game!

Thanks guys. good luck with your plays this weekend.

[MrXYZ]

SHARKS -2.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL UNDER 40.5 @1.90

BULLDOGS +6.5 @1.89 (bought 1 point)

Sharks hammered the Raiders & the under scraped home by 2.5 points to keep the streak going. But it was all over when the Storm fired a couple of tries to sink my play & the Bulldogs season. Terrible defense. Should've taken the over, chose not to add a total as the line was pretty sharp at 35.5.

Today: 2-1
Round 18: 4-1
Record so far: 16-8 66.67%

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 10 July
SYDNEY ROOSTERS vs PENRITH PANTHERS

Going with the Panthers to win this one comfortably against the worst team in the comp right now.

PANTHERS -3.5 @1.87

Good luck!

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 09 July
MANLY SEA EAGLES vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

I think the Rabbits will surprise today and keep this game close. It's hard to see them beating Manly in this one but have an excellent chance to cover the 10.5 points on offer.


SOUTH SYDNEY +10.5 @1.92

Good luck!

[MrXYZ]

PANTHERS -3.5 @1.87

SOUTH SYDNEY +10.5 @1.92

Roosters beat the Panthers & the day capped off by Manly literally scoring a last minute try to kill the Souths play. On the bright side, these high scoring games were fun to watch.

0-2
Round 18: 4-3
Record so far:16-10 61.54%

[MrXYZ]

Monday 11 July NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs NORTH QLD COWBOYS (using my phone, sorry)
Undervalued, JT missing but they can still cover. COWBOYS +12.5 good luck!

[dRavidC]

Monday 11 July NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs NORTH QLD COWBOYS (using my phone, sorry)
Undervalued, JT missing but they can still cover. COWBOYS +12.5 good luck!

if you think cowboys won't win but will cover this, maybe more value in knights 1-12 margin?

[MrXYZ]

if you think cowboys won't win but will cover this, maybe more value in knights 1-12 margin?

Good point. But I prefer the latitude Cowboys give me with the points on offer. Knights lose or win >12 = $0.

[MrXYZ]

COWBOYS +12.5 @1.90

Cowboys prove they're not a one-man team with a classy, unexpected 22-12 win. The Knights, who aren't that great to begin with, were overvalued & drew most of the public's action. The $10-50k punters, who love playing in traffic, expected to cash the easy money @1.24 but ended up on suicide watch instead.

1-0
Round 18: 5-3
Record so far: 17-10 62.96%

A fantastic start to the weekend let down by Sunday's 0-2 result, but a great win today ends it on a high note.

Round 19 has some great matches to look forward to, including Dragons vs Sharks, Panthers vs Eels & Roosters vs Rabbitohs!

[MrXYZ]

Round 19 opening lines, from Centrebet.



Broncos unplayable at 1.23, they should win comfortably but can they cover -12.5? Likewise Dragons -8.5 & Warriors -6.5. Panthers & Tigers look overvalued.

At first glance it's easy to assume the favourites get the points in this round but a couple of upsets are in store.

[MrXYZ]

A few stats from Round 18. This is all basic stuff but still interesting.

Average winning margin: 12.57 pts.

Favourites went 4-7, 57%.
If you flat bet favs to cover the spread = profit of 0.60 units.

Underdogs went 3-7, 43%.
If you flat bet dogs ML = profit of 0.80 units.

[hawley]

Initially I like Tigers and Storm spread although interestingly the Storm have gone to 3.5 at Pinny so I may grab it now

I want to go big on the Roosters and Rabbits over...I think there may be 60+ points in that one.

[MrXYZ]

I like Tigers & Storm too. Bulldogs, with coach Moore resigning, will either be a mess or go out hard & the over on that one looks good as well.

[s2230011]

Totally agree there .. there is an option on TAB for highest scoring match of the round and roosters V bunnies is paying $5 .. i put some on that ... I think the roosters are overrated after their game against the Panthers ... both sides were rubbish !!

[MrXYZ]

Friday 16 July

NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS vs BULLDOGS
GAME TOTAL OVER 34.5 @1.85

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
BRONCOS -12.5 @1.90
GAME TOTAL OVER 36.5 @1.95

Good luck!

[goty0405]

Good luck mate. I'm on Brisbane -12.5 as well so Im with you there but I'm thinking the Unders (35.5 and 36.5 at my bookie) are shot in both games tonight.

[MrXYZ]

NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS vs BULLDOGS
GAME TOTAL OVER 34.5 @1.85

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
BRONCOS -12.5 @1.90
GAME TOTAL OVER 36.5 @1.95

Cashed all 3 plays. Great start to Round 19.

Round 19: 3-0
Record so far: 20-10 66.67%

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 16 July

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
RABBITOHS -2.0 @1.92

NORTH QLD COWBOYS vs WESTS TIGERS
TIGERS -2.5 @1.92

PENRITH PANTHERS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
EELS +2.0 @1.92

Good luck!

[NEW_WORLD]

good luck with your plays
but i heard rabbitohs missing some key forwards, is it true?

[MrXYZ]

adding:
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
GAME TOTAL UNDER 42.0 @1.90