MrXYZ's NRL thread

[MrXYZ]

just checked the results on sportal.com. good comeback tonite!

from what i gather, wnba has been tough this season for most tipsters.

and as for mlb... it's absolutely friggin' relentless. there are so many games over such a long period. it does my head in.

Thanks, it's been tough but NRL saves the day & gets me rolling again. Cowboys had me sweating with another slow start, but what a show they put on, just great to watch.

Yeah, WNBA is too unpredictable this year, just about everyone is getting hammered. Even guys like Roagbettor called it quits. I'm gonna lay off MLB, unless you do it as a full time job it's damn near impossible to succeed & the volatility since the all-star break has been ridiculous.

Good luck with your plays.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 31 July
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 43.0 @1.90

These two high scoring teams both suffer from defensive lapses and we could see over 50 points in this one.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 31 July
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
TITANS +11.5 @1.92

A risky play, but Knights are overvalued IMO & Titans have a real chance to cover, even with their coach in hospital.

ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
DRAGONS -14.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.85

St George are out for the kill after Monday's debacle & the Bunnies are headed for another embarrassing loss. It's a huge spread to cover but if the Dragons hit their stride they'll do it easily.

[NEW_WORLD]

good luck, hope today will all bets winners like yesturday.
best regards

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 31 July

NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 43.0 @1.90

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
TITANS +11.5 @1.92

ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
DRAGONS -14.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.85

Buried today. First up, poor execution from the Raiders denied any hope of the total getting over the line. Knights crushed the Titans, I got that one totally wrong, no excuses. An to top it off the Dragons blew a half-time lead, again! Unbelievable footy from the Bunnies, amazing comeback after being written off all week. At least those 3 quick tries ensured the over was in the bank.

1-3
Round 21:5-4
Record so far: 36-19 65.45%

[MrXYZ]

Monday 01 August
MELBOURNE STORM vs PARRAMATTA EELS
STORM -8.0 @1.92

The Storm have a chance to extend their lead and should do so today. The favourites to take out the Premiership have beaten stronger teams and hold the edge in just about every area of the game against the Eels. But a team playing for pride is dangerous though, and this could be a real contest. Had the Eels won those two golden point heartbreakers this would've been one of the highlights of the round. Their tendency to self-detonate has pretty much killed their season while the Storm have the ability to grind out their opponents at one end of the field while deploying plenty of attacking weapons on the other . The 8 points is a sharp line but they should get this one by at least 10.

[MrXYZ]

Some late injuries for the Storm have moved the line down to -7.0. The Storm ML is now 1.43 & Parra 2.87.

from the NRL Site:

"Melbourne have been forced to make four late changes to their line-up to face Parramatta in their NRL clash on Monday night.

After their final training session on Sunday, Storm coach Craig Bellamy ruled out five-eighth Gareth Widdop (elbow), winger Matt Duffie (sternum), second rower Sika Manu (leg) and interchange forward Rory Kostjasyn (calf).

Bellamy has not announced who the replacements are for the Parramatta Stadium clash."

Staying with the play, the Storm still have the depth to get this one. If it moves further I may put another unit on them.

Good luck!

[NEW_WORLD]

good luck today.
with you on this

[Shifty107]

On Melbourne as well tonight. Just won a beauty on Parra U20's at $2.45. GL tonight mate.

[MrXYZ]

Monday 01 August
MELBOURNE STORM vs PARRAMATTA EELS
STORM -8.0 @1.92

What a game! Parra have this one tucked into bed at 18-0, then the Storm pull off quite possibly one of the greatest comebacks I've ever seen to take the win. I took a half-time live bet on the Storm @2.25 which cashed after even more stress, but it won't count towards my record as I didn't post it.

The Storm -8 play was a major error in judgement on my part, my sincere apologies to anyone who tailed.I should've hedged out of it but was stubborn and and my ego refused to see the obvious. As soon as those injuries were announced the smart money swung towards Parra covering the points & it held for a while before punters stampeded the play to +6.

A disappointing round, but I'm not too upset because that was some amazing footy to experience as a fan. This sort of unpredictability is what you have to live with & the goal is to be consistent/profitable for season 2011. So I'll get to work on Round 22 as soon as the lines get posted tomorrow.

0-1
Round 21: 5-5
Record so far: 36-20 64.28%

[MrXYZ]

Round 22, from Centrebet.



Some tough lines. Cowboys @1.80 & -1.5 @1.90 will get pounded so if you're confident they'll beat the Bulldogs, taking them early is a good idea. I like Dragons -4 so far. Call it a square play, but I see them smashing the Tigers on Friday. As 95% of punters feel the same way it'll get pushed out to -5.5 by game time.

Can't wait for some of the totals, Sharks/Titans will be set at 65 lol.

Punters got killed last week, sharps & squares alike, and the books will clean up again. Some guy dumped $20k on Parra @1.65 at halftime, and thanks to twitter became a lesson on why you should not go big on your live bets.

Good luck with everyone's plays.

[kingsr]

The Tigers/dragons line was 5.5 earlier today and tigers were 2.60 ML on centrebet. Punters have already pounded it! Tigers are a great team and starting to gel now, tread carefully.

[MrXYZ]

The Tigers/dragons line was 5.5 earlier today and tigers were 2.60 ML on centrebet. Punters have already pounded it! Tigers are a great team and starting to gel now, tread carefully.

Thanks for the info, I was wrong & thought it was the opener. St George usually get the late public money & it'll be interesting to see where this goes. For an underdog play 2.60 is terrific value, the pick of the round. You could throw a few small bucks on it & still enjoy the game, as opposed to the St George backers who'll risk too much @1.57. Good luck with your picks this week!

[kingsr]

Thanks XYZ, yep I agree, tigers good value in what could be an epic battle! Good luck to you too!

[MrXYZ]

Friday 05 August
BULDOGS vs NORTH QLD COWBOYS
COWBOYS ML @1.81

I'm expecting the Cowboys to be too strong & overcome their slow starts to get points early. If they don't, the Bulldogs have the talent to hang close, making another golden point game very possible. This is the time of the season where you can't write off any team. Hence I'm going with the ML as opposed to -1.5 @1.92.

[benrama]

I like the Saints 1H line at -2, with Bennett now having gone out so publicly in the press criticising the players motivation, they will be fired up to make amends for this one. Tigers are a tough team at home, I used to go to their games when I lived in the inner west, and the crowd there really fires them up. However, man for man, Saints are a much better team and if they bring motivation and their A-game should come out strong. Can see the Tigers coming home strong however, so prefer the 1H spread to the full game.

The other plays I'm looking at for the round are:

Penrith +14.5 - too many points to be giving a talented Penrith side, even on Storm home ground. Being in 9th position one spot out of the top 8 and needing desperately to get a win here, you'd hope they'll give 100% commitment. Widdop will be out for the Storm and Lewis will be in for the Panthers

Brisbane/Warriors over - will depend on the line here, but these teams have been scoring machines of late, and I expect a 50+ point game weather permitting

Manly/Cronulla multi - Gallen back and at the shire playing the NRL cellar dwellers Titans, and with mathematical outside chances of making the 8 should win easily. Manly should win easily at Brookvale and look to make amends for last week and keep in the hunt for the minor premiership. Odds are not fantastic (~$1.80) but I think it's the strongest multi of that value in the round.

[Beniphone]

Agreed with most of that

[MrXYZ]

Solid picks! Agree that Penrith are definitely better than +14.5. Cronulla should take this one but I wouldn't be surprised if the Titans made it a contest. Looking at their upcoming games, if they're going to score win #5 for season 2011 this could be it. Good luck this week.

Another play I like is the Bulldogs/Cowboys over. We'll see what the books post for that one.

[MrXYZ]

Friday 05 August
BULDOGS vs NORTH QLD COWBOYS
COWBOYS ML @1.81

Adding:
GAME TOTAL OVER 43.0 @1.91

The books set it quite high, as expected. But the Cowboys are over machines & the only way the Bulldogs can win this one is by outscoring them.

[MrXYZ]

Friday 05 August
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs WESTS TIGERS
DRAGONS -4.0 @1.92

Like I said earlier, Tigers ML is the underdog play of the week. A tough call but I'm going with St George, they'll be too strong today. Their star studded line-up is rattled, while Benji's incredible form has reignited his troops, ensuring a blockbuster at the Sydney Football Stadium tonight.

Good luck today!

[benrama]

Love the over play on the Cowboys/Bulldogs, still worried about Bulldogs finally putting a decent game together though, think I'll play the ML for a smaller amount, haven't decided which side yet.

I'm definitely playing the St George 1H -2 tonight though, favourite play of the night. Since Round 13 St George have been ahead at halftime by more than 2 points in every game except one - in the loss against Brisbane. And this game is not at Liechhardt or Campbelltown like I first thought, it's at the SFS so that negates most of the Tigers home advantage. St George is 102-26 at the SFS in it's last 4 games.

BOL tonight Mr XYZ!

[MrXYZ]

This Bulldogs/Cowboys matchup is a hard one to pick, I jumped the gun & should've waited. Money pouring into the Bulldogs have seen them even out at @1.91.

Great work getting the St George 1H -2. As expected the Friday night punters are pounding it out to -3.5 & -5.5 respectively.

Good luck tonight benrama, let's cash some winners!

[benrama]

Don't read anything into late line movement, and you haven't cost yourself much in odds. I do like the Bulldogs tonight but am sticking with the over play.

I've learnt to always play Saints early if you like them as punters can't resist them late before game time!

Let's get this brother - here's to a good night!

[MrXYZ]

It's not looking good for the Cowboys and to cap it off the total play's toast. At least the Dragons have a good chance to salvage the night.

[benrama]

Don't worry mate, nights like this happen, couldn't even cash that Saints 1H. What a crazy finish to that game though, 3 knock ons and 3 scrums in the last minute and a bit, and nearly a penalty right at the end!

Onto tomorrow.

[MrXYZ]

Don't worry mate, nights like this happen, couldn't even cash that Saints 1H. What a crazy finish to that game though, 3 knock ons and 3 scrums in the last minute and a bit, and nearly a penalty right at the end!

Onto tomorrow.

Thanks mate, we'll get them tomorrow. Another Friday night thriller from the Tigers, Benji does it again!

[MrXYZ]

Friday 05 August

BULDOGS vs NORTH QLD COWBOYS
COWBOYS ML @1.81
GAME TOTAL OVER 43.0 @1.91

ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs WESTS TIGERS
DRAGONS -4.0 @1.92

An embarrassing start to Round 22 but I have to laugh at this kind of night. Cowboys were lacklustre against the Bulldogs & the high scoring game I anticipated fizzled out. Then St George fell victim to another second half mauling by the Tigers. In a carbon copy of last week's epic against Manly, Benji was the superstar again.

0-3
Record so far: 36-23 61.02%

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 06 August

MELBOURNE STORM vs PENRITH PANTHERS
PANTHERS +14.5 @1.92

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
BRONCOS -6.0 @1.92

CRONULLA SHARKS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
SHARKS -8.0 @1.92

Let's get back to cashing winners today! I'll be back later with some totals.

[MrXYZ]

Adding:

MELBOURNE STORM vs PENRITH PANTHERS
GAME TOTAL UNDER 38.0 @1.90

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90

CRONULLA SHARKS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
GAME TOTAL OVER 39.5 @1.90

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 06 August

MELBOURNE STORM vs PENRITH PANTHERS
PANTHERS +14.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL UNDER 38.0 @1.90

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
BRONCOS -6.0 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90

CRONULLA SHARKS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
SHARKS -8.0 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 39.5 @1.90

Buried again. That Cronulla game was ridiculous & sums up my night. Got it all wrong & no excuses, it's how it goes. The only bright spot was the Broncos/Warriors total getting over the line by a field goal.

2-4
Round 22: 2-7
Record so far: 38-27 58.47%

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 07 August

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
KNIGHTS -8.0 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 42.5 @1.90

MANLY SEA EAGLES VS SYDNEY ROOSTERS
SEA EAGLES -10.5

Knights have found some form & are coming off a huge win over the Titans. They'll be agressive and the Raiders will take plenty of risks which means points. The total at 42.5 is high but worth a shot. Manly will be too strong today against the Roosters and will get this one easily.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 07 August

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
KNIGHTS -8.0 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 42.5 @1.90

MANLY SEA EAGLES VS SYDNEY ROOSTERS
SEA EAGLES -10.5

Plenty of points as Knights & Manly score easy wins for a clean sweep.

3-0
Round 22: 5-7
Record so far: 41-27 60.29%

[kingsr]

Nice recovery bro! Boom!!!

[MrXYZ]

Nice recovery bro! Boom!!!

Thanks! I'l try to keep the momentum going with today's picks.

[MrXYZ]

Monday 08 August

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
SOUTHS -3.5 @1.91
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90

Gotta go with the Bunnies in this one, with plenty of try attacking action from both teams I'm taking the over as well.