MrXYZ's NRL thread

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  • NEW_WORLD
    Restricted User
    • 10-30-09
    • 677

    #211
    congrats
    i woke up too late today, anyway glad to see good results
    Best regards
    Comment
    • hawley
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 05-10-10
      • 14270

      #212
      Dragons win next week
      Comment
      • MrXYZ
        SBR MVP
        • 02-18-11
        • 2342

        #213
        Originally posted by MrXYZ
        Sunday 14 August
        CANBERRA RAIDERS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
        SOUTHS -4.0 @1.92

        ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
        ST GEORGE -18.5 @1.90
        GAME TOTAL OVER 36.5 @1.85
        Souths easy winners but Dragons were just terrible & their hopes of another Premiership are over. A crap day, but one more game in the round so let's close it out with a win.

        1-2
        Round 23: 7-5
        Record so far: 50-32 60.97%
        Comment
        • MrXYZ
          SBR MVP
          • 02-18-11
          • 2342

          #214
          Monday 15 August
          CRONULLA SHARKS vs BULLDOGS
          BULLDOGS -2.0 @1.92
          GAME TOTAL OVER 38.0 @1.90

          Bulldogs have been impressive lately & should get another win against a Cronulla team that can't wait for the season to end.
          Comment
          • s2230011
            SBR Sharp
            • 06-14-10
            • 368

            #215
            Unlucky on a couple of plays there this week, esp the warriors V Newcastle.

            I went 5 - 2 this weekend, but it was all on Friday night, I was up 3 units, and that was it. Anyhow I like the Dogs tonight, to be honest I didnt watch them against the cowboys last week. Why do you like the over though? I was leaning over too, but the last 3 games for each of these 2 sides were under, I am a little releuctant to pull the trigger there ..
            Comment
            • MrXYZ
              SBR MVP
              • 02-18-11
              • 2342

              #216
              Great work going 5-2, hope you took the Bulldogs to finish off the round with another win.

              I was dead wrong on that total, was expecting both teams to break out of their run of unders & Cronulla getting more tries (they should've won by 20 points in last week's debacle) to spark a higher scoring game.
              Comment
              • MrXYZ
                SBR MVP
                • 02-18-11
                • 2342

                #217
                Originally posted by MrXYZ
                Monday 15 August
                CRONULLA SHARKS vs BULLDOGS
                BULLDOGS -2.0 @1.92
                GAME TOTAL OVER 38.0 @1.90
                I totally misfired on the total but got the Bulldogs for an easy win. Aside from Saturday's efforts it was an average round, with tough beats on Manly & Newcastle. But I'll get back to work & hopefully come up with a better result in Round 24.

                1-1
                Round 23: 8-6
                Record so far: 51-33 60.71%

                Comment
                • hawley
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 05-10-10
                  • 14270

                  #218
                  Just like last round i like Rabbits Cowboys over anything

                  Hope pinny puts up a total this week
                  Comment
                  • MrXYZ
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-18-11
                    • 2342

                    #219
                    Round 24, from Centrebet.



                    Early leans: Storm, Roosters & Broncos. Titans/Raiders over as well.

                    Agree with Souths/Cowboys total, it'll be at least 52.5 though. The books know everyone's waiting to jump on it.
                    Comment
                    • hawley
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 05-10-10
                      • 14270

                      #220
                      Should the Raiders be dogs against the Titans?

                      Few dogs I like this weekend - NQL, Raiders, Dragons
                      Comment
                      • binomial
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 08-02-10
                        • 507

                        #221
                        i'm square, first look i like storm, souths and easts.

                        maybe manly, they have been lacklustre but bulldogs looked terrible on monday night.
                        Comment
                        • MrXYZ
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-18-11
                          • 2342

                          #222
                          Raider's forward Josh Miller and star fullback Josh Dugan are out for this week's game against the Titans.
                          Comment
                          • hawley
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 05-10-10
                            • 14270

                            #223
                            Pinny is being useless with NRL totals

                            Which book do you use?


                            Edit: Must be raining in Sydney is it?
                            Comment
                            • MrXYZ
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-18-11
                              • 2342

                              #224
                              I use Centrebet & TAB. It's been raining all day so they've set the total low.
                              Comment
                              • MrXYZ
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-18-11
                                • 2342

                                #225
                                Friday 19 August
                                SOUTH SYDNEY VS NORTH QLD COWBOYS
                                COWBOYS +3.5 @1.87
                                GAME TOTAL OVER 38.5 @1.90


                                This is a tough game to pick but going with the Cowboys in a close one. Even though it's been raining in Sydney, the Bunnies will stick to their exciting style of play to push both teams to get the total over the line. JT should have a much better game than he did last week.

                                MELBOURNE STORM vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
                                STORM -3.5 @1.95
                                GAME TOTAL UNDER 34.5 @1.85


                                It's tempting to take the Dragons but I've looked at just about every angle & this game could well signal the end of their back-to-back premiership hopes. I expect the Storm's guts, discipline & talent to grind out another win for a club record 12th straight, even without the injured Cronk.

                                Good luck today.
                                Comment
                                • benrama
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-19-11
                                  • 1499

                                  #226
                                  Love the Storm play, don't like at all the Cowboys/Souths over. It hasn't just been raining here in Sydney it's been crazy weather.
                                  Comment
                                  • benrama
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-19-11
                                    • 1499

                                    #227
                                    Haha, what do I know, nice picks Mr ZYZ. I had the Storm ML big and it was never comfortable but they got there.

                                    Really liking Manly for Sunday.
                                    Comment
                                    • MrXYZ
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-18-11
                                      • 2342

                                      #228
                                      Thanks benrama, congrats on cashing the Storm tonight.
                                      Comment
                                      • MrXYZ
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-18-11
                                        • 2342

                                        #229
                                        Originally posted by MrXYZ
                                        Friday 19 August
                                        SOUTH SYDNEY VS NORTH QLD COWBOYS
                                        COWBOYS +3.5 @1.87
                                        GAME TOTAL OVER 38.5 @1.90


                                        MELBOURNE STORM vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
                                        STORM -3.5 @1.95
                                        GAME TOTAL UNDER 34.5 @1.85

                                        Fantastic start to Round 24. Aside from the Storm play, we cashed both totals & Cowboys got the cover for a winning night.

                                        3-1
                                        Record so far: 54-34 61.36%
                                        Comment
                                        • benrama
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-19-11
                                          • 1499

                                          #230
                                          Who you liking in the Penrith/Warriors game? Torn on this one, Jennings is back and will be keen for redemption, it's Petro's last game, last home game for the Panthers - they have just enough to play for to keep this interesting.

                                          The other two games are unbettable for me as both teams have nothing to play for.
                                          Comment
                                          • MrXYZ
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-18-11
                                            • 2342

                                            #231
                                            Leaning warriors, but might stick to a total in this one. Panthers could easily get steamrolled in the second half.
                                            Comment
                                            • benrama
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-19-11
                                              • 1499

                                              #232
                                              I'm definitely leaning to the over for the game too (assuming you were heading that way) - weather looks good here in Sydney, both teams love to score tries - don't have a line released at my book though yet - do you?
                                              Comment
                                              • MrXYZ
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-18-11
                                                • 2342

                                                #233
                                                Still waiting, they take their time with totals. Gotta go with the over in this one as well as Raiders/Titans.
                                                Comment
                                                • MrXYZ
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 02-18-11
                                                  • 2342

                                                  #234
                                                  Saturday 20 August
                                                  GOLD COAST TITANS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
                                                  TITANS -2.0 @1.92
                                                  GAME TOTAL OVER 42.5 @1.85


                                                  PENRITH PANTHERS vs NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
                                                  GAME TOTAL OVER 42.5 @1.85
                                                  WARRIORS -7.5 @1.92

                                                  SYDNEY ROOSTERS VS CRONULLA SHARKS
                                                  SHARKS +7.0 @1.92

                                                  Good luck today.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • MrXYZ
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-18-11
                                                    • 2342

                                                    #235
                                                    Originally posted by MrXYZ
                                                    Saturday 20 August
                                                    GOLD COAST TITANS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
                                                    TITANS -2.0 @1.92
                                                    GAME TOTAL OVER 42.5 @1.85


                                                    PENRITH PANTHERS vs NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
                                                    GAME TOTAL OVER 42.5 @1.85
                                                    WARRIORS -7.5 @1.92

                                                    SYDNEY ROOSTERS VS CRONULLA SHARKS
                                                    SHARKS +7.0 @1.92
                                                    Mixed luck today. Titans easy winners & the over was gone until a last minute penalty goal by Preston cashed the play for a perfect start. Warriors too good for the Panthers as expected & then Roosters sank Cronulla with an unbelievable comeback. That was just bad beat, 3 tries in 10 minutes lol.

                                                    Today: 3-2
                                                    Round 24: 6-3
                                                    Record so far: 57-36 61.29%
                                                    Comment
                                                    • MrXYZ
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-18-11
                                                      • 2342

                                                      #236
                                                      Sunday 21 August
                                                      MANLY SEA EAGLES vs BULLDOGS
                                                      SEA EAGLES -10.5 @1.92
                                                      GAME TOTAL UNDER 40.5 @1.85

                                                      WESTS TIGERS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
                                                      EELS +9.5 @1.92
                                                      GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.85


                                                      It's a lot of points but Manly at Brookvale have the class to easily dispose of a desperate Bulldogs team. They don't deserve that 8th spot & today will prove it. Tigers are on fire right now & should notch up their sixth straight win, but Parra have real shot at covering in what should be a high scoring game.

                                                      Comment
                                                      • goty0405
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 06-29-11
                                                        • 123

                                                        #237
                                                        Interesting move to get on Manly -10.5 and the under at the same time. That means the bulldogs can only score a max of 14 points for both plays to be possible.

                                                        I'm not saying it wont happen (in fact a final score of something like 24-6, 24-10, or 30-6 is likely) but just interesting to see you going for the big spread to be beaten but still be under.

                                                        Good luck.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • MrXYZ
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-18-11
                                                          • 2342

                                                          #238
                                                          I'm taking a risk playing these two like this but expecting a strong defensive effort from Manly & a score similar to the Warriors/Panthers game.

                                                          Thanks & let's cash some winners today.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • MrXYZ
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-18-11
                                                            • 2342

                                                            #239
                                                            Originally posted by MrXYZ
                                                            Sunday 21 August
                                                            MANLY SEA EAGLES vs BULLDOGS
                                                            SEA EAGLES -10.5 @1.92
                                                            GAME TOTAL UNDER 40.5 @1.85

                                                            WESTS TIGERS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
                                                            EELS +9.5 @1.92
                                                            GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.85

                                                            Once again a last minute penalty was the difference with Manly's 11 point win securing the cover. But a determined Bulldogs attack killed the total & I was dead wrong to take the under in this situation. Then the Tigers crushed the Eels but at least scored enough points to cash the over & salvage today's picks.

                                                            Today: 2-2
                                                            Round 24: 8-5
                                                            Record so far: 59-38 60.82%
                                                            Comment
                                                            • hawley
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 05-10-10
                                                              • 14270

                                                              #240
                                                              Had over 42.5 in the Tigers game

                                                              Benji with two sideline conversions he misses far more than he hits
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MrXYZ
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-18-11
                                                                • 2342

                                                                #241
                                                                Monday 22 August
                                                                NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
                                                                BRONCOS -3.5 @1.92
                                                                GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90


                                                                Going with the Broncos & total to go over today.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • benrama
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-19-11
                                                                  • 1499

                                                                  #242
                                                                  In researching this game, the following was a telling statistic

                                                                  "... of all the Newcastle wins they have come against teams in the following ladder positions: 11th, 5th, 13th, 14th, 16th, 11th, 12th, 7th, 13th, 15th and 14th." (http://www.aussportsbetting.com/2011...sbane-broncos/)

                                                                  The only team Brisbane have lost to below Newcastle on the ladder was Penrith in Round 10, though arguably a lack of focus due to SOO 1 was partly to blame.

                                                                  Newcastle obviously have a strong motivation tonight but so do Brisbane as there's a real chance Manly can lose to the Storm this Friday night and then they can play for 2nd place against Manly in the final round.

                                                                  Brisbane are basically full strength, so are Newcastle.

                                                                  Newcastle rarely get blown out in games.

                                                                  All this leads me to think Brisbane 1-12 is the best bet of the night @ $3.00.

                                                                  Usually when I get fancy it backfires but tonight I'm going to bet on Brisbane -1.5 at $1.75 for 1 UNIT and 1-12 at $3.00 for 1/3 UNIT. I'll either be up 0.4 units (boring!), up 1.4 units (nice!), or down 1.33 units (boo!) - I used this strategy well in the past let's see how it goes tonight.

                                                                  Good luck on the over, I think it's the right play but last time they met there was only 23 points, and given the importance of the game I expect both teams to be switched on defensively.

                                                                  Should be a cracker of a game - looking forward to it!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • benrama
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-19-11
                                                                    • 1499

                                                                    #243
                                                                    p.s. is it just me or should the league seriously look at scheduling more marquee games on Monday night, it's a night when you are the sole game in town when it comes to sport on TV and people who love their league and their punting can get pumped up for it. The NRL has so far done a half-assed job at supporting MNF, they need to look at what has made it so popular in the NFL
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • s2230011
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 06-14-10
                                                                      • 368

                                                                      #244
                                                                      I am liking brisbane, they have been incredible of late but still thinking about it. I cannot go Newcastle, they simple cant match the broncos !! NZ played pretty badly last week and still beat Newcastle by a few points in the end.

                                                                      I always like the over for Knights games, they are always open games, but sometimes execution fails. I like the Broncos bet more than the over. Good luck mate
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • hawley
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 05-10-10
                                                                        • 14270

                                                                        #245
                                                                        Whats the weather doing?
                                                                        Comment
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