MrXYZ's NRL thread

s2230011 · 08-22-11, 03:48 AM

I would say raining, Over went from 1.85 to 2.05

MrXYZ · 08-22-11, 06:03 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Monday 22 August
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
BRONCOS -3.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90

I went big on the Broncos & hope some of you guys cashed this one, they had too much class & it was all over with most of the second half left to play. Knights bombed too many opportunities & killed the over in the process. Interesting line move on that one, was 1.90, then moved to 1.80 as everyone pounded it & the weather pushed it up to 2.0.

Today: 1-1
Round 24: 9-6
Record so far: 60-39 60.60%

MrXYZ · 08-22-11, 06:20 AM

Originally posted by benrama

In researching this game, the following was a telling statistic

"... of all the Newcastle wins they have come against teams in the following ladder positions: 11th, 5th, 13th, 14th, 16th, 11th, 12th, 7th, 13th, 15th and 14th." (http://www.aussportsbetting.com/2011...sbane-broncos/)

The only team Brisbane have lost to below Newcastle on the ladder was Penrith in Round 10, though arguably a lack of focus due to SOO 1 was partly to blame.

Newcastle obviously have a strong motivation tonight but so do Brisbane as there's a real chance Manly can lose to the Storm this Friday night and then they can play for 2nd place against Manly in the final round.

Brisbane are basically full strength, so are Newcastle.

Newcastle rarely get blown out in games.

All this leads me to think Brisbane 1-12 is the best bet of the night @ $3.00.

Usually when I get fancy it backfires but tonight I'm going to bet on Brisbane -1.5 at $1.75 for 1 UNIT and 1-12 at $3.00 for 1/3 UNIT. I'll either be up 0.4 units (boring!), up 1.4 units (nice!), or down 1.33 units (boo!) - I used this strategy well in the past let's see how it goes tonight.

Good luck on the over, I think it's the right play but last time they met there was only 23 points, and given the importance of the game I expect both teams to be switched on defensively.

Should be a cracker of a game - looking forward to it!

These 1-12 bets are tough, I get tempted but prefer to stick to the MLs or spreads these days.

Good luck everyone with your plays for Round 25, some fantastic games to look forward to with Broncos/Souths, Knights/Bulldogs, Manly/Storm & St George/Warriors!

(Reyes) · 08-23-11, 02:25 AM

Stay focused and pick a winner for today

MrXYZ · 08-23-11, 05:09 AM

Round 25, from Centrebet.

At first glance, I like Manly, Warriors & Penrith.

hawley · 08-23-11, 02:50 PM

Love the Warriors spread here, although no Vatuvei this week.

Roosters to beat Eels but I wouldnt touch this game, especially with Eels fighting to avoid the spoon - should be a few points scored though

Knights? Bad recent form but hav had some tough games, they need this one and the Doggies are done.

MrXYZ · 08-24-11, 08:19 AM

The over is definitely worth a shot in the Roosters/Eels game, and Cowboys/Sharks too..

benrama · 08-25-11, 07:06 PM

Manly have more to play for as they need to win this to guarantee a 2nd spot finish; however Melbourne are the form team.

Hmmmm ... not much of an angle on this game, but I think this is a coin flip and will likely take Melbourne at the current odds.

Also will be leaning under as I expect both teams to respect each others defenses and play more conservatively. In their opening round game only 24 points were scored.

goty0405 · 08-25-11, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by benrama

Hmmmm ... not much of an angle on this game, but I think this is a coin flip and will likely take Melbourne at the current odds.

Exactly. I personally can't split them, and my probability model has Melbourne as slight favourites so I think 2.50 is great value

s2230011 · 08-25-11, 07:49 PM

I havent looked into this week properly yet, but I cannot believe Melbourne are underdogs. I dont think Manlys last 2 outings have been impressive, up against Parra and Dogs werent impressed at all. Its a big game and its at brookvale, but form is hard to ignore, I wouldnt be surprised if the Storm win by 13+

benrama · 08-25-11, 10:30 PM

I'm looking at making the sojourn to the northern beaches and going to the game - should be a cracker, and the weather here in Sydney is fan-bloody-tastic.

I think my strategy for the game will be to bet Melb at $2.60 (current Pinnacle odds) and look to middle if Melbourne get ahead. Just hope I can actually get through to my sportsbook amidst the madness at Brookvale

s2230011 · 08-25-11, 10:43 PM

Its reported Cronk may well be playing tonight !

MrXYZ · 08-25-11, 11:43 PM

Friday 26 August
MANLY SEA EAGLES vs MELBOURNE STORM
STORM +4.0 @1.92

Going with the Storm tonight. Even without Cronk, it's a steal to get +4 on the best team in the comp. Manly's recent wins have come against Bulldogs, Parra & Roosters. They haven't been tested since their loss to the Tigers a month ago. Storm are just a class above everyone & they've already taken care of the Broncos & Dragons. This is their biggest test though & even though the ML @2.40 is tempting I'm sticking with the points on offer, can't go past that kind of value.

PARRAMATTA EELS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 42.5 @1.95
EELS -1.5 @1.87

Roosters have been displaying a solid return to form but I think their run ends today. A tough game to pick but Parra should get this one. We'll see plenty of tries but the total will be close.

Good luck today.

s2230011 · 08-26-11, 01:31 AM

I like the two team plays, bit sure about the total ... good luck mate !! Keep up the good work

s2230011 · 08-26-11, 01:33 AM

supposed to say "not sure" about the total ... Parra can play decent defence, have a feeling it may end up being a grind.

hawley · 08-26-11, 04:08 AM

Raiders may be specials this wekeend playing at home in Tounge's final game

benrama · 08-26-11, 04:22 AM

Like the plays Mr XYZ, ended up deciding to watch the Storm/Eagles clash here on the big screen at home with some fine bevvies - nightmare getting to Brookvale oval on a Friday night.

The +4 for Melbourne is being juiced at Pinnacle - that's a good late sign. Also noticed they have lines up for totals??? Is this a recent thing, I haven't seen this before - maybe I'm not placing bets 10 minutes before game time as a regular occurrence.

Should be a cracker of a game, I'll check back in here at halftime.

hawley · 08-26-11, 04:24 AM

Originally posted by benrama

Like the plays Mr XYZ, ended up deciding to watch the Storm/Eagles clash here on the big screen at home with some fine bevvies - nightmare getting to Brookvale oval on a Friday night.

The +4 for Melbourne is being juiced at Pinnacle - that's a good late sign. Also noticed they have lines up for totals??? Is this a recent thing, I haven't seen this before - maybe I'm not placing bets 10 minutes before game time as a regular occurrence.

Should be a cracker of a game, I'll check back in here at halftime.

Actually a few weeks ago and for the earlier rounds they would put totals up but the last round or two they havent.

Last weekend I emailed them and asked if they were going to and they told me they never have done NRL totals

benrama · 08-26-11, 05:09 AM

Still early days, but Manly are having a beast of a game here - extremely aggressive and attacking play -, Storm just need to try to survive to half-time.

Meanwhile looks like Eels and Roosters can't remember what a try line looks like.

hawley · 08-26-11, 05:14 AM

Eels Roosters game is one of the worst I have watched in some time

benrama · 08-26-11, 05:18 AM

Holy sh.it, it's on like donkey kong here at Brookvale! Bring back the biff!

benrama · 08-26-11, 05:30 AM

Storm ball control and kicking game is just not there tonight, half-time can't come soon enough.

benrama · 08-26-11, 05:33 AM

And there goes the game - Storm really are being shown up here tonight, I guess the bookies were giving us a hint giving them a 4 point head start.

I'm switching over to the AFL, later guys.

MrXYZ · 08-26-11, 05:47 AM

Storm look terrible & Manly's walking all over them. I think Parra will hold on, lol that game's an embarrassment to the NRL.

hawley · 08-26-11, 05:48 AM

The Roosters wont score a point tongiht they look so bad on attack

benrama · 08-26-11, 05:52 AM

Not to over-react to one game, but you'd have to place Manly as the team to beat based on what you're seeing tonight. Saints a shell of their former self, and Storm - Slater aside - just don't have the attacking power Manly do. Losing Williams would be a big blow however, so we'll see how he comes up.

Actually wish I'd gone to the game now, the atmosphere reminds me of West Tigers and Knights home games I used to go to with the crowd baying for blood and creating an electric energy. Shame the game is already over, could have been a real classic if Storm could have kept it close to half-time.

MrXYZ · 08-26-11, 06:28 AM

Yeah, I was expecting an epic grand final preview but this was over by half time. Storm play Roosters next week & that should be an easy win for them to get their confidence back. Manly's peaking at the right time & their game against the Broncos will hopefully be more of a battle than this one.

This year's Premiership race is the most unpredictable in years & I'm expecting some huge upsets during the finals.

benrama · 08-26-11, 06:48 AM

Yes, this is the most open finals season in memory for me, you could make a case for at least 6 of the teams to make the grand final (I'm ruling out Knights/Rabbits and Saints) - though I really think that Manly have to be the favourites after today. They were $4.50 before this game, and I was that close to putting a decent sized bet on it - typical beer drowning hard luck story.

I think tonight we seriously under-estimated Manly's motivation to seal up 2nd place and perform in front of the home crowd - they are undefeated this year at Brookvale and for good reason. In a way it makes the Bulldogs efforts last week look more impressive, I think I'm leaning towards playing them tomorrow vs the Knights.

kingsr · 08-26-11, 06:32 PM

I'm expecting manlys halves to buckle under the big stage (finals footy). Their halves, who have carried them this far (great form) I believe will buckle in a BIG game. Nothing against them personally, it's just human nature. I'll be fading manly come finals time based on this theory.

kingsr · 08-26-11, 06:35 PM

I'm very confident dogs win today. They have been improving every week under dymock, and last week played very well but just couldn't finish. Hodgo is back and new have some injuries to key players. No I'm not biased, I rarely bet on my team, but I see an opportunity today.

MrXYZ · 08-26-11, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Friday 26 August
MANLY SEA EAGLES vs MELBOURNE STORM
STORM +4.0 @1.92

PARRAMATTA EELS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 42.5 @1.95

EELS -1.5 @1.87

Buried. Manly stomped a lacklustre Storm & Parra blew a 12 point lead to lose in a golden point, again. Roosters deserved that win, that was a terrific comeback.

0-3
Record so far: 60-42 58.82%

hawley · 08-26-11, 11:34 PM

Doggies tonight for me

MrXYZ · 08-27-11, 12:19 AM

Saturday 27 August
BULLDOGS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
BULLDOGS -2.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL UNDER 40.5 @1.85

Going against my initial lean with the Bulldogs at home against an injury hit Knights. McDougall & Mullen unlikely to take the field while Hilder & Sa'u are definite non starters. Dogs may be done for the year but will play hard hto ensure their miserable fans/sponsors sign up for 2012.

CANBERRA RAIDERS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
PANTHERS +6.0 @1.87
GAME TOTAL UNDER 44.5 @1.90

I'm expecting a low-standard but entertaining game with the Panthers scraping home to cover the 6 points.

NORTH QLD COWBOYS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
GAME TOTAL OVER 45.5 @1.90
COWBOYS -17.5 @1.92

Cronulla are simply dreadful & JT should hit his stride to power the Cowboys to an easy win. It's a lot of points though so we'll see if they can do it.

Good luck, let's cash some winners today.

hawley · 08-27-11, 06:29 AM

Only play tonight was the Cowboys over. Nice to backdoor it.

Good work on a good night

MrXYZ · 08-27-11, 08:00 AM

Thanks, a winning night was welcome after yesterdays shocker.