MrXYZ's NRL thread

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 27 August
BULLDOGS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
BULLDOGS -2.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL UNDER 40.5 @1.85

CANBERRA RAIDERS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
PANTHERS +6.0 @1.87
GAME TOTAL UNDER 44.5 @1.90

NORTH QLD COWBOYS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
GAME TOTAL OVER 45.5 @1.90
COWBOYS -17.5 @1.92

Dogs looked finished, but with an amazing 2nd half, blasted the Knights out of the park in one of the comebacks of the year. Panthers cashed the win & the total with a thrilling 1 point victory over the Raiders. Then a surprisingly lethal Sharks squashed the Cowboys spread, they haven't played anywhere near that well in over a month & it was my luck to be on the wrong side of that pick. But Matty Bowen's clever last-minute try got the total home.

Overall, a great result today got the round back on course & I'll do my best with Sunday's picks.

Today: 4-2
Round 25: 4-5
record so far: 64-44 59.26%

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 28 August
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs NZL WARRIORS
WARRIORS +6.0 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 37.5 @1.90

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs SOUTH SYDNEY
SOUTHS +7.0 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 44.5 @1.90

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 28 August
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs NZL WARRIORS
WARRIORS +6.0 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 37.5 @1.90

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs SOUTH SYDNEY
SOUTHS +7.0 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 44.5 @1.90

A good start with the total going over & Warriors covering the points after a tense last few minutes. Although St George showed flashes of brilliance, I'm still convinced their back-to-back Premiership dream is over.

Then the Bunnies were scoreless in the second half, in typical fashion they had a terrible game when they needed the opposite. Broncos weren't that hot either but did enough to secure a win & kill both plays.

Today: 2-2
Round 25: 6-7
Record so far: 66-46 58.93%

[benrama]

Still not a bad round all things considered.

For tomorrow night I'm thinking Titans +20 have to be the play, I mean, I can't think of one of these 14+ spreads that have hit for the favourite the entire year - 20 points is a HUGE head start, and yes I know the Tigers are the team with something to play for but not much has to happen for the underdog to cover this spread. Titans beat the Tigers 20-14 in Round 6, and the teams aren't too different, only the motivation and the home ground advantage is - is that enough for a 26 point turn-around? Could be - Knights beat Titans by 30 recently, but I think the Titans cover this spread more often than not. If nothing else - it should provide some solid live betting hedge opportunities.

[MrXYZ]

Monday 29 August
WESTS TIGERS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
GAME TOTAL OVER 41.5 @1.90

Going with the over in this one. Preston's ignited the Titans & they're playing with a lot of enthusiasm. They'll throw the ball around & take some risks. Tigers meanwhile are coming off easy wins against Penrith & Parra & should come up with another ruthless display.

[MrXYZ]

I'm leaning Titans +20.5 as well. Punters who take favourites with these lines usually get killed with a last minute try. But Tigers have the talent to win by 30+ so it's a tough game to call.

[MrXYZ]

Adding:
TITANS +20.5 @1.92

[binomial]

on the same, GL.

[MrXYZ]

Monday 29 August
WESTS TIGERS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
GAME TOTAL OVER 41.5 @1.90
TITANS +20.5 @1.92

Cashed the total but the Titans were terrible in the second half & killed any hope of a cover. Benji was again brilliant in the Tigers' latest demolition.

A tough weekend of NRL tipping but Round 26 is around the corner. Looking forward to a battle for the wooden spoon with Titans taking on Parra on Saturday.

1-1
Round 25: 7-8
Record so far: 67-47 58.77%

[benrama]

The scoreline actually didn't do the Titans justice, the line of +-20 was pretty much spot on. If the Titans could have converted when they had the field position at 22-10 then the cover would have been a good shot.

Tigers are an interesting team, with spurts of brilliance and spurts of erratic play. I think a disciplined team like the Storm would still beat them come finals, but if they can keep their completion rates up they are a good shot of winning this thing.

Have you had a look at the current Future's odds? (odds below are from Pinnacle) I think there's a ton of value on the Warriors and Cowboys.

3001 St. George Dragons +500 Risk To Win
3003 Wests Tigers +485 Risk To Win
3004 South Sydney Rabbitohs +4500 Risk To Win
3006 Melbourne Storm +275 Risk To Win
3007 Brisbane Broncos +425 Risk To Win
3008 New Zealand Warriors +1225 Risk To Win
3012 Manly Sea Eagles +455 Risk To Win
3014 Newcastle Knights +8500 Risk To Win
3015 North Qld Cowboys +2025 Risk To Win

[kingsr]

Cowboys are gone IMO. Dead money!

[benrama]

Cowboys have beaten both Manly and Melbourne this year (obviously with a healthy JT), and on their day they can still beat any team.

The likely first round matchups in the finals are as follows:

1 vs 8: Storm vs Knights
2 vs 7: Sea Eagles vs Cowboys
3 vs 6: Broncos vs Warriors
4 vs 5: Tigers vs Dragons

Now, Sea Eagles are quite likely to be without Stewart and Lussick for their game against the Cowboys, and while NQ also lost their rookie second rower Sims, I think they can cover for that better than Manly can for their outs. Also - with the finals now being taken away from the suburban grounds the advantages for a team like Manly have diminished in a home game that is not at Brookvale - look what happened against the Tigers.

If the Cowboys could beat the Sea Eagles, and Storm, Brisbane and Tigers win, then we'd have these semi-finals:

NQ vs Saints
Tigers vs Eagles

Playing the most out of form top 8 side for a chance at a prelim final is not a bad position to be in at this stage.

And if they win that they play Melbourne for a place in the grand final, who they have already beaten this season.

You can always think of reasons why a 20:1 team won't win, but I think there's a lot of value in the odds as currently offered.

[MrXYZ]

I like Broncos & Storm. They'll prove to be the strongest teams when the finals come along IMO.

[benrama]

Yea, along with the Storm talent, Bellamy is a super finals coach, and Brisbane have the motivation with Lockyear's swansong to take it all the way. Just no value on them in my opinion. I considered taking Manly and Brisbane at $5-$5.50, and if one of them makes the grand final you have a guaranteed profit - still weighing it up, but definitely making a play on NQ.

[MrXYZ]

Round 26 from Centrebet.



so far I like Souths & Penrith. Also the over for Cowboys/Warriors & Broncos/Manly.

[benrama]

Opposite of your side leans at the moment, Penrith have nothing to play for, and if Saints go up two tries in th 1H this bet is all over. Also the Knights game is the old boys game and the stadium and team will be pumped. This will be Brookvale from last weekend all over again. I'm taking Knights 1H as they will come out firing but could have another 2h meltdown.

[MrXYZ]

Friday 2 September
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
SOUTHS ML @1.95

I'm expecting a thriller with the Bunnies overcoming the loss of GI to secure that final 8 spot.

ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 38.5 @1.90

St George weren't all that impressive against the Warriors last week but their all start line-up will look to pile on the points & close the regular season in style. Panthers meanwhile are done for the year but have enough pride to make it a contest. Regardless, this should be a high scoring game & so I'm going with the over.

[MrXYZ]

Opposite of your side leans at the moment, Penrith have nothing to play for, and if Saints go up two tries in th 1H this bet is all over. Also the Knights game is the old boys game and the stadium and team will be pumped. This will be Brookvale from last weekend all over again. I'm taking Knights 1H as they will come out firing but could have another 2h meltdown.

I wouldn't write off the Panthers, they're very capable of a back door cover with that +14.5 opener against a St George team still looking for answers. But the value has gone & now down to +12.0. so Dragons may be the play.

[kingsr]

Rumours civonceva and waterhouse are playing which may explain price shift

[Beniphone]

They both passed fitness tests

[ExodusNZ]

Wow found a forum that has NRL !!!!!!!!!! About time!!

Hey MrXYZ nice win %!! How many units are you up ?

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Looks like knights are the play. Late money coming in

[MrXYZ]

Friday 2 September
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
SOUTHS ML @1.95

ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 38.5 @1.90

I ended up taking the Dragons -12.0 but won't be included in my record as I didn't post it. Cashed the St George total thanks to that late try. The Bunnies paid the price for a terrible 1st half & so the Knights are heading to the finals.

Round 26: 1-1
Record so far: 68-48 58.62%

[MrXYZ]

Wow found a forum that has NRL !!!!!!!!!! About time!!

Hey MrXYZ nice win %!! How many units are you up ?

Thanks & good luck with your picks. In NRL I'm up 34.2 units for the year, I vary the number of units risked & my result is mostly thanks to a couple of very big plays that paid off. Had I been flat betting my profit would be a third of that but my season a lot less stressful!

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 3 September
NZL WARRIORS vs NQL COWBOYS
COWBOYS +6.5 @1.92

PARRAMATTA EELS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
EELS -1.5 @1.92

CRONULLA SHARKS vs WESTS TIGERS
TIGERS -12.0 @1.92

[MrXYZ]

Adding:
CRONULLA SHARKS vs WESTS TIGERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 42.0 @1.90

NZL WARRIORS vs NQL COWBOYS
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90

[hawley]

Rain just really cranked up here in Auckland.

GL tonight sir

[kingsr]

Doesn't seem to be any rain on the field now in the Toyota cup game.

[MrXYZ]

Thanks for the info. I noticed the under's juiced @1.80.

Adding:
PARRAMATTA EELS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90

[hawley]

Doesn't seem to be any rain on the field now in the Toyota cup game.

It was pissing down when I posted that at Mt Smart.

Looks to have cleared again.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 3 September
NZL WARRIORS vs NQL COWBOYS
COWBOYS +6.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90

PARRAMATTA EELS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
EELS -1.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90:

CRONULLA SHARKS vs WESTS TIGERS
TIGERS -12.0 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 42.0 @1.90

JT had an off night & the Warriors were too good today. The under was the play but every square assumes wet conditions equals low scores. However you have solid players knocking on in their own half, dropped balls & guys aquaplaning across the tryline to get points. But I was dead wrong in a terrible start to the day.

Hayne had one of his best games & was on a mission to spare Parra the wooden spoon with an easy win. It was even sweeter when the Titans scored a last minute try to cash the total.

Then the Tigers were looking like they were going to run away with it but were almost toppled by a second half surge by an impressive Sharks effort. At least the total sailed over in the process.

An average night, but moving on to Sunday & the last 3 games of the regular season.

Today: 3-3
Round 26: 4-4
Record so far: 71-51 58.20%

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 4 September
BULLDOGS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
BULLDOGS -9.5 @1.85
GAME TOTAL UNDER 49.5 @2.0

Going with the Bulldogs today. With nothing really to play for everyone's expecting a try fest & pounding the over but I'm taking a shot this one will scrape home under 50 points. Raiders are looking at a posssible wooden spoon & want to ensure it's mailed out to the Gold Coast on Monday morning.

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs MANLY SEA EAGLES
BRONCOS -11.5 @1.88 (bough 1 point)
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90

Lockyer's last home game ensures his team are on a mission to send him out a winner in front of the fans at Suncorp. A depleted Manly is still dangerous and won't just let the party roll over them though. I bought a point as it's still good value @1.88.

MELBOURNE STORM vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
STORM -7.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90

Cronk returns and the Storm will be too good today. After last week's debacle they should produce a ruthless display to end the regular season on a high. Roosters have put together an impressive last few weeks but we'll see how they fare today.

That's it, the last picks for NRL regular season 2011. A day sit back, be a fan and enjoy the footy. Good luck everyone.

[MrXYZ]

Adding a 2 game parlay:
BRONCOS ML/STORM ML @1.77

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 4 September
BULLDOGS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
BULLDOGS -9.5 @1.85
GAME TOTAL UNDER 49.5 @2.0

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs MANLY SEA EAGLES
BRONCOS -11.5 @1.88 (bought 1 point)
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90

MELBOURNE STORM vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
STORM -7.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90

BRONCOS ML/STORM ML @1.77

lol what a disaster. But I wanted to enjoy today's action & took the cautious option of going light so losses were minimal. Still would've preferred to close out the season on a winning note.

2-7
Round 26: 6-11
Record so far: 77-62 55.4%

[dRavidC]

lol what a disaster. But I wanted to enjoy today's action & took the cautious option of going light so losses were minimal. Still would've preferred to close out the season on a winning note. 2-7 Round 26: 6-11 Record so far: 77-62 55.4%

ahh unlucky. the storm bet was doomed the moment they decided to rest their players. broncos have again shown that they are a side that grind out wins. bulldogs and canberra - started off sloppy but then both sides gave up on defence as the tries started leaking.